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Dealing Prospects

View Poll Results: Balej = ...
Chipchura 9 10.23%
O'Byrne 4 4.55%
Emelin 7 7.95%
A. Kostitsyn 26 29.55%
Lapierre 5 5.68%
Maxwell 9 10.23%
NONE 28 31.82%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
11-20-2006, 03:38 PM
  #1
Souffle
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Dealing Prospects

Assuming Gainey will make a deadline deal for a good rental or veteran, and assuming that it will be of the typical form [Good Prospect] + [Draft pick], which prospect would you be most willing to part with?

In other words, going back to the Kovalev deal, which is the closest to Balej expendability?

For what it's worth, to me it's between Kostitsyn and Emelin. I've just never been crazy about that Kostitsyn pick, and the Habs have enough scoring depth on the wing to keep him in Hamilton, even in a year where he's showed signs of NHL readiness. Emelin is a tough one because though he's a good prospect who's old enough that he might be able to step right in next year, especially if the D gets ravaged by UFA, there's a whole other set of issues of whether he will come over at all, or only on condition of playing in the NHL.


Last edited by Souffle: 11-20-2006 at 03:49 PM.
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Old
11-20-2006, 03:43 PM
  #2
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Duncan Milroy! But he has no real value, so I suppose I'd go with ... hmm, this is a tough one. Every prospect seems to bring something unique to the table, among the better ones.

Well, I can tell you the ones I wouldn't want to see moved, unless the return was something special: Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Chipchura, Price, Fischer, Grabovski, Emelin.

Outside of those, I don't think any of the prospects hold much value. Maybe Maxwell, White or Carle do, but it's too early to consider them good prospects. Prospects with potential, sure.

The ones I listed I consider to have better than normal-prospect-chances of making the NHL and offering something unique.

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11-20-2006, 03:54 PM
  #3
Blind Gardien
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I'll go along with Kostitsyn. You have to give to get, so there isn't much point in throwing out any lesser names or higher gambles. Maybe Kostitsyn will still have the interest needed to make a suitable deadline offering. I would never deal Lapierre, Chipchura, or O'Byrne, however... I think they're almost money in the bank for the kind of roles they'll eventually fill, so the currency exchange there isn't so attractive.

I'm a bit torn on the whole as to whether I even want to see Gainey make such a deal, mind you. I didn't like Balej-Kovalev when it happened either (although I found ways to rationalize it as psychologically useful for the franchise even when I was lamenting the rentaplayer-prospect idea in general). I do agree that if we're stepping from pretenders to contenders we probably do have to play this game and take that one small bit of consolation from the cap that's out there... the ability to airlift in a prominent rental with only a fraction of his cap hit remaining could be a key winning strategy in the new NHL world... but as a prospects and draft fan, it will always be mixed feelings for me when it happens, pending what it ultimately brings us in the playoffs.

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Old
11-20-2006, 04:07 PM
  #4
Qui Gon Dave
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We have 2 NHL level goalies and a highly touted prospect in Price, in addition to the Danis/Halak combo in the AHL. I'm suprised why no-one ever considers moving one of them. If both play well in Hamilton I can see a team thin in nets willing to make a move for one or other. One is on the verge of being NHL ready (Danis) and the other is more of a future investment (Halak) and it's unlikely we would need both in the future. As for the other prospects, I really don't know. I suppose it would depend more on the other organisations requirements, but we have a fair amount of depth to cover a variety of interests.

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Old
11-20-2006, 04:10 PM
  #5
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Balej was offered to the NYR who had the opportunity to select instead Hossa, Plekanec and Hainsey I think. I am sure of the first two, and I think there was an other one who I think is Perezhogin.

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Old
11-20-2006, 04:14 PM
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welcome to MTL .. trade our best offensive forward and keep our utility player.

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Old
11-20-2006, 04:51 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Dave View Post
We have 2 NHL level goalies and a highly touted prospect in Price, in addition to the Danis/Halak combo in the AHL. I'm suprised why no-one ever considers moving one of them. If both play well in Hamilton I can see a team thin in nets willing to make a move for one or other. One is on the verge of being NHL ready (Danis) and the other is more of a future investment (Halak) and it's unlikely we would need both in the future. As for the other prospects, I really don't know. I suppose it would depend more on the other organisations requirements, but we have a fair amount of depth to cover a variety of interests.
Those are good points, but I don't think of Halak and Danis as stand-alone good prospects, at least in your typical deadline deal. I could be wrong, though, as I'm not really familiar with them. There's always a demand for quality NHL goalies, but I'm not so sure about AHL or junior goalies, except for the blue chip types like Price.

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Old
11-20-2006, 04:59 PM
  #8
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Ohhhhh DEALING prospects. I though A. Kosty was caught selling smack. whew.

Ok, that was bad. I voted none.

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Old
11-20-2006, 05:02 PM
  #9
Qui Gon Dave
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Originally Posted by davedave View Post
Those are good points, but I don't think of Halak and Danis as stand-alone good prospects, at least in your typical deadline deal. I could be wrong, though, as I'm not really familiar with them. There's always a demand for quality NHL goalies, but I'm not so sure about AHL or junior goalies, except for the blue chip types like Price.
My thinking is that Danis has played well during his years in Hamilton and has developed nicely and done some things in his career which might get the attention of a scout or GM (shutout the thrashers in his first nhl game, co-1st star of AHL all star game, etc) wanting to take a chance on a goalie who could at least be backup in the NHL (again, this is assuming they both have decent seasons this year). His value might not be that high, but with a pick to a team that needs some goaltending depth at the deadline, I could see him benig moved. Same thing with Halak, only he is less proven and might suit a team that needs a goalie prospect to develop a bit longer. In his few starts in the AHL, he has put up some interesting stats, which if he can maintain (there or thereabouts) would surely attract interest from someone. They aren't bluechip prospects, but goalies can be difficult to predict and take time to develop. To have someone who has a few years development under their belt and some proven success may be attractive to a GM. Its not as if we have room for all these guys in Montreal. We might not get a huge return for them, but we could surely get something (rental/veteran type, as mentioned in your 1st post) for one of them and still have one left over with Price still waiting in the wings.

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Old
11-20-2006, 05:03 PM
  #10
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Originally Posted by lennywebster View Post
welcome to MTL .. trade our best offensive forward and keep our utility player.
Our best offensive forward prospect who never scores points?

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Old
11-20-2006, 05:14 PM
  #11
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Corey Locke would be our Balej, wouldn't he? Leading Hamilton scorer. Never played in the NHL.

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Old
11-20-2006, 05:22 PM
  #12
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If O'Byrne has some value right now, I would trade him before Emelin. IMO, Emelin has more potential than O'Byrne.

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11-20-2006, 05:45 PM
  #13
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This sort of deal requires us to make the playoffs, we could be the ones dumping a vetran like souray or kovalev or markov at the end of the season if were not in the race.

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Old
11-20-2006, 06:39 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kafka View Post
Balej was offered to the NYR who had the opportunity to select instead Hossa, Plekanec and Hainsey I think. I am sure of the first two, and I think there was an other one who I think is Perezhogin.
It was just Hossa and Plekanec. The Rangers went for the one who's scout told them was the fastest skater

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11-21-2006, 05:56 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I'll go along with Kostitsyn. You have to give to get, so there isn't much point in throwing out any lesser names or higher gambles. Maybe Kostitsyn will still have the interest needed to make a suitable deadline offering. I would never deal Lapierre, Chipchura, or O'Byrne, however... I think they're almost money in the bank for the kind of roles they'll eventually fill, so the currency exchange there isn't so attractive.

I'm a bit torn on the whole as to whether I even want to see Gainey make such a deal, mind you. I didn't like Balej-Kovalev when it happened either (although I found ways to rationalize it as psychologically useful for the franchise even when I was lamenting the rentaplayer-prospect idea in general). I do agree that if we're stepping from pretenders to contenders we probably do have to play this game and take that one small bit of consolation from the cap that's out there... the ability to airlift in a prominent rental with only a fraction of his cap hit remaining could be a key winning strategy in the new NHL world... but as a prospects and draft fan, it will always be mixed feelings for me when it happens, pending what it ultimately brings us in the playoffs.
Great post. I'm a bit more positive about the whole rental approach. It's a privilege of good teams, a kind of strategy reward for teams that draft well and put them in a position where it's (potentially) worthwhile to sacrifice one of several good prospects for an extended playoff run.

All that said, I find it funny that after Kostitsyn, the second choice among Habs fans is to not deal any prospects. Effectively that means no rental deal, as Milroy and Ferland are just not what teams will be looking for. (And the thought of trading our own UFA going into the playoffs -- even Aebischer -- makes no sense at all to me).

I wouldn't hesitate to make a deal for Forsberg, Gomez, or other high-profile rentals, even at the cost of a good prospect. The Balej and Hossa expereinces are instructive, as it shows that having prospect depth is in itself an asset apart from the potential of individual prospects. I think it's safe to say that not all of the Habs top 10 prospects will be impact NHL players, let alone useful ones. The trick is knowing which will be Balejs and which will be Higgins in order to minimize the cost of flopping in the playoffs after having given up a piece of the Habs (unknown) future.

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11-22-2006, 09:30 AM
  #16
Blind Gardien
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Originally Posted by davedave View Post
I wouldn't hesitate to make a deal for Forsberg, Gomez, or other high-profile rentals, even at the cost of a good prospect. The Balej and Hossa expereinces are instructive, as it shows that having prospect depth is in itself an asset apart from the potential of individual prospects. I think it's safe to say that not all of the Habs top 10 prospects will be impact NHL players, let alone useful ones. The trick is knowing which will be Balejs and which will be Higgins in order to minimize the cost of flopping in the playoffs after having given up a piece of the Habs (unknown) future.
Well, we do seem to have quite a high prospect ranking, although I'm not sure that necessarily translates into having a lot of attractive prospect-trade commodities. I'm thinking we have a number of guys who are too solid (but unspectacular) to warrant moving (as I said above about Chip, Lap, O'Byrne), goalies - but I agree with the posts about goalie prospects not holding very good market value either (every team has a few of their own), and then your Milroys and Ferlands who are almost like the goalies... guys we might like, but every team will think they have their own already.

The other category we seem to have is the later round "steal" (we hope) types like Kostitsyn Jr., Aubin, D'Agostini, maybe Mikus, guys we here on HFBoards put some good value on, but it's questionable whether their real-world value matches what we see, or whether it would seem to be worthwhile to trade our perceived "steals" against their devalued market returns, given our high hopes for them. (Where I like to think that "our" also in some way includes Timmins and co., in that I get the impression he sees good things from some of those "steal" types just as we do).

Anyway, if you forced me to walk out on a limb at gunpoint... I'd pick the Kostitsyns (both in fact, but more return value to the Andrei side presumably), Carle, Mikus... those would be among my best guesses as the next "Hossa"/"Balej" types. I have no opinion about Fischer yet. If goalies really had much value, I'd be tempted to put Price there too, but I'd rather wait a bit on that. However, if it really came down to it and the other team would only take Price in their mega-rentaplayer deal with us for Forsberg (the healthy one) or Gomez or whoever... I'd almost be tempted, you know. I might try to tell myself reassuring stories about Halak, hope that Danis was playing well again, find out if Lindberg was going to come over, keep Rollie talking to Desjardins, and you know, think about what kinds of goalies I could steal in the 3rd round this year, etc...

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11-22-2006, 09:46 AM
  #17
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Originally Posted by lennywebster View Post
welcome to MTL .. trade our best offensive forward and keep our utility player.
I don't see anyone on that list that meets that criteria.

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Old
11-22-2006, 02:01 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by davedave View Post
Assuming Gainey will make a deadline deal for a good rental or veteran, and assuming that it will be of the typical form [Good Prospect] + [Draft pick], which prospect would you be most willing to part with?

In other words, going back to the Kovalev deal, which is the closest to Balej expendability?

For what it's worth, to me it's between Kostitsyn and Emelin. I've just never been crazy about that Kostitsyn pick, and the Habs have enough scoring depth on the wing to keep him in Hamilton, even in a year where he's showed signs of NHL readiness. Emelin is a tough one because though he's a good prospect who's old enough that he might be able to step right in next year, especially if the D gets ravaged by UFA, there's a whole other set of issues of whether he will come over at all, or only on condition of playing in the NHL.
None on that list, but from watching the rookie camp Sergei Kostitsyn looked completely uninterested and I didn't like his playing style or attitude one bit. He floated around and looked to me like a guy who thinks he already has it made.

But I do think the Habs will eventually have to choose between Kostitsyn and Perezhogin. We are not going to have a successful team with them and also Kovalev and Samsonov. These guys are all very skilled but ultrasoft players (except for Kovalev). We are not going to win with a team that generates as little forechecking and success on the boards as that would. We really need some top level talents who are strong on the boards and who can generate turnovers and forechecking. Latendresse, Higgins etc. are the types that we need. D'Agostini and Aubin have that potential, too.


Last edited by Catch-22: 11-22-2006 at 02:10 PM.
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Old
11-22-2006, 02:07 PM
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I have a bad feeling about Chipchura due to his lack of performance and injuries. Its seems his growth has been stunted.

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Old
11-22-2006, 04:50 PM
  #20
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kost and a 1st should net a top player in a trade..... he has value as possibly a future top line player, but I just dont see it happening

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11-22-2006, 05:14 PM
  #21
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As long as we dont move Price,

if you are telling me getting another kovalev-level player will cost some prospect. I'm now to the point of not carrying at all.

Of course, i like Chipchura, Fisher, Lapierre, etc... hell, i'm frequently on this site which mean i love prospects, but the habs are a rising team and we arent in rebuilding mode anymore.

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11-22-2006, 05:20 PM
  #22
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Corey Locke would be our Balej, wouldn't he? Leading Hamilton scorer. Never played in the NHL.
Balej played in an NHL game last season, had an assist.

I think it depends on the player involved, and the team you're trading with. NYR wanted to get rid of Kovalev, so I don't think a Balej-equivalent would draw an equally good player from another team.

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Old
11-22-2006, 06:46 PM
  #23
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Maxwell reminds me of Locke in some way.. so if we can guet something good, like a mid 30 years old long-term locked centre, for him well i wouldnt mind

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