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Bergevin needs to reinfornce the defense a.s.a.p.

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09-28-2013, 09:11 AM
  #351
rafal majka
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post


Right... if you watch games on your calculator.
Let me guess, hits and +/- are the best indicators of ability.

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Doesn't matter. If you can't kill penalties and if you can't guard the front of your own net the other team doesn't need as many shots to score.

We need a shutdown guy and they aren't that hard to get. One solid guy back there would make a world of difference. Also, MT is an idiot for not playing PK more minutes because right now he's the best we have.
The Habs' PK doesn't suck because they lack a mythical "shut-down guy" - it sucks because of daigneault's system.

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09-28-2013, 09:19 AM
  #352
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We need a shutdown guy and they aren't that hard to get.
Isn't Murray supposed to be your face-punching shut-down guy? Or maybe you've come to realize that his game has declined so much (based on his +/- hit ratio) that he's nothing more than a pylon on skates.

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09-28-2013, 09:19 AM
  #353
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Let me guess, hits and +/- are the best indicators of ability.
Let me guess... Scott Gomez was awesome 'cause his Corsi rating was great!

All we need to do is look at CORSI and total shots and we know who's going to win right? We don't have to watch the games at all...

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09-28-2013, 09:22 AM
  #354
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Let me guess... Scott Gomez was awesome 'cause his Corsi rating was great!
Scott Gomez is not bad in his role - as a fourth liner. Gomez was a bad trade and a misused asset.

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09-28-2013, 09:23 AM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Let me guess... Scott Gomez was awesome 'cause his Corsi rating was great!

All we need to do is look at CORSI and total shots and we know who's going to win right? We don't have to watch the games at all...
It's fenwick close and shot differential.

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09-28-2013, 09:24 AM
  #356
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It's fenwick close and shot differential.
Oh I see... so we don't need to watch the games then? Thanks.

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09-28-2013, 09:25 AM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post


Right... if you watch games on your calculator.

Doesn't matter. If you can't kill penalties and if you can't guard the front of your own net the other team doesn't need as many shots to score.

We need a shutdown guy and they aren't that hard to get. One solid guy back there would make a world of difference. Also, MT is an idiot for not playing PK more minutes because right now he's the best we have.
PK Sv % is largely random, meaning, if you change nothing with the roster it is still vulnerable to wild variations. Our SV % on the pk was bad last year, it's likely to recover without any changes, but if we make a few adjustments, like putting Subban back on the top unit and dropping the diamond formation we'll be back to top 5.

We don't need anything. We actually have the exact PKers that were the 2nd best in the league 2 years ago, we just need to use them (better).

Over reacting to a non issue is what you're suggesting.

I admire your consistency, but don't think you're even close to offering up anything of substance here.

The same lame, if you watch the games on your calculator arguments that I would expect from much lesser informed posters than yourself. If you're somehow implying that you have a monopoly on watching habs games and I only count stats, not only are you way off base, you're insulting. I have missed 1 period of a habs game in the last decade. LOL. I'm every bit as obsessed as you are, maybe more so.

Anyways, we don't agree at all and I'm sure we already know this, so I don't feel like listening to you re-hatch the same tales you been saying all along.


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09-28-2013, 09:28 AM
  #358
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Oh I see... so we don't need to watch the games then? Thanks.
Why be a fan if you're not going to watch the games? Puck possession stats just provide a bit more insight than +/- and hits.

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09-28-2013, 09:31 AM
  #359
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We actually have the exact PKers that were the 2nd best in the league 2 years ago, we just need to use them (better).
Exactly.

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09-28-2013, 09:32 AM
  #360
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Doers Green check out physically though? Solid guy but he seems broken to me.

Bieksa makes too much for a low end #4, high end #5. Plus he doesn't really fit the "top notch shutdown guy" mold that people here seem to want.
Bieska would be number 3 here, 4 at worst, he's not really a shutdown guy, but he'd be a good addition. Not a necessity, but definitely a nice to have.

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09-28-2013, 09:33 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
PK Sv % is largely random, meaning, if you change nothing with the roster it is still vulnerable to wild variations. Our SV % on the pk was bad last year, it's likely to recover without any changes, but if we make a few adjustments, like putting Subban back on the top unit and dropping the diamond formation we'll be back to top 5.
Compare two units and just look at one stat. The team who's better in that stat will usually win if you have no other information... that stands to reason.

Sabremetrics is still in its infancy in hockey dude. It's not there yet and due to the game being far more fluid than baseball it will never be that accurate. I'm not dismissing the Advanced stats as I think they have some use. But they are not the be-all and end-all of things. You can't just look at a spreadsheet and think that it tells you all you need to know about the game. It doesn't.
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We don't need anything.
We VERY CLEARLY DO. Our D is great with the puck. In our own end it's a different story. And our penalty killing sucks.
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We actually have the exact PKers that were the 2nd best in the league 2 years ago, we just need to use them.
Hal Gill is gone dude. You know what he was good at? Clearing the net. That helped to kill penalties.
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Over reacting to a non issue is what you're suggesting.
Clearing the net is not an non-issue. Going to the net is not a non-issue. Getting players who can do this is not an overreaction.
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I admire your consistency, but don't think you're even close to offering up anything of substance here.
And yet we got bounced by the Sens...

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09-28-2013, 09:40 AM
  #362
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Oh I see... so we don't need to watch the games then? Thanks.
Not everything is as black and white as this. While you continue to attack with strawman arguments like I see "we don't need to watch the games" the rest of us will watch the games and evaluate based on numbers and the eye test. The numbers happen to support the eye test in this case very easily.

Shot differential is usually a decent predictor of success, better than goal differential even. There are a few teams (anomalies each year) that buck these trends, however, teams that outshoot their opponents end up in the playoffs, typically, those who don't, don't, typically. To ignore this is equivalent to being blind.

The idea that teams give up a low level of shots, but a disproportionate amount of scoring chances or quality shots, is a load of bunk. You continually suggesting it without ever showing an ounce of evidence doesn't make it any more true.

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09-28-2013, 09:41 AM
  #363
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Exactly.
WTF are you talking about?
Gill was our main penalty killer and is gone.
Our next best guy was Gorges and he's busted up.

That leaves us with Markov (who wasn't even in the lineup back then) Diaz, Subban... not the same group.

We have to pray that Tinordi is ready. None of these guys is great at killing penalties except maybe Subban who we don't use.

We need a shutdown guy. Not hard to see this. Hopefully Murray can do the job but we're basically praying that this will be the case.

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09-28-2013, 09:43 AM
  #364
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Compare two units and just look at one stat. The team who's better in that stat will usually win if you have no other information... that stands to reason.

Sabremetrics is still in its infancy in hockey dude. It's not there yet and due to the game being far more fluid than baseball it will never be that accurate. I'm not dismissing the Advanced stats as I think they have some use. But they are not the be-all and end-all of things. You can't just look at a spreadsheet and think that it tells you all you need to know about the game. It doesn't.

We VERY CLEARLY DO. Our D is great with the puck. In our own end it's a different story. And our penalty killing sucks.

Hal Gill is gone dude. You know what he was good at? Clearing the net. That helped to kill penalties.

Clearing the net is not an non-issue. Going to the net is not a non-issue. Getting players who can do this is not an overreaction.

And yet we got bounced by the Sens...
Saying the same thing over and over again and expecting consensus is the definition of what, dude?

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09-28-2013, 09:46 AM
  #365
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Not everything is as black and white as this. While you continue to attack with strawman arguments like I see "we don't need to watch the games" the rest of us will watch the games and evaluate based on numbers and the eye test. The numbers happen to support the eye test in this case very easily.

Shot differential is usually a decent predictor of success, better than goal differential even. There are a few teams (anomalies each year) that buck these trends, however, teams that outshoot their opponents end up in the playoffs, typically, those who don't, don't, typically. To ignore this is equivalent to being blind.

The idea that teams give up a low level of shots, but a disproportionate amount of scoring chances or quality shots, is a load of bunk. You continually suggesting it without ever showing an ounce of evidence doesn't make it any more true.
I haven't suggested that some shots are better. You aren't reading my posts.

What I'm saying is that crashing the net makes a huge difference. You don't need a great shot when your goalie can't see the puck.

Almost every team in the league does this better than we do. We are a great skating team and we have our strengths but we don't go to the net (this has been a problem for a loooong time) and we don't defend in front of our own (this is a fairly recent problem.)

Markov and Diaz and good with the puck but they're soft as butter and for whatever reason our coach has decided not to play PK on the PK or in criticial defensive situations. That leaves us with Tinordi and Murray. So cross your fingers and hope Price can step up because that's not a good group. Maybe if Gorges can come back... but that might be wishful thinking.

Get a real shutdown guy. It's not that hard and it's not a big ask. Just one guy would make a world of difference.

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09-28-2013, 09:47 AM
  #366
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Saying the same thing over and over again and expecting consensus is the definition of what, dude?
Right back at you.

No matter how many times you come here with advanced stats it won't change the fact that you need some guys to clear the net and go to the net. You aren't going to win cups with one dimensional teams.

And it's pretty clear you don't know what you're talking about because you seem to think we have the same PK unit that we had two years ago.

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09-28-2013, 09:49 AM
  #367
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Compare two units and just look at one stat. The team who's better in that stat will usually win if you have no other information... that stands to reason.

Sabremetrics is still in its infancy in hockey dude. It's not there yet and due to the game being far more fluid than baseball it will never be that accurate. I'm not dismissing the Advanced stats as I think they have some use. But they are not the be-all and end-all of things. You can't just look at a spreadsheet and think that it tells you all you need to know about the game. It doesn't.

We VERY CLEARLY DO. Our D is great with the puck. In our own end it's a different story. And our penalty killing sucks.

Hal Gill is gone dude. You know what he was good at? Clearing the net. That helped to kill penalties.

Clearing the net is not an non-issue. Going to the net is not a non-issue. Getting players who can do this is not an overreaction.

And yet we got bounced by the Sens...
Once again, a whole lot of nothing. Sabremetrics is still in it's infancy, so lets ignore all the data that is currently there . More spread sheet bla bla.

I explained why our penalty killing sucks, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out.

Hal Gill is gone dude, maybe you should pick up one of those spreadsheets you go on about others using too frequently, if you had, you know how good our PK was WITHOUT Hal Gill.

Every area can always be improved, no team is 100% in every area. However, going to the net, clearing the net ect are not huge, hue concerns, we have plenty of players crashing the net. It's a narrative of the mis-informed because we happen to be small up front. Yet the small guys crash the net like crazy.

We got beat by the Sens because we suffered some key injuries at an inopportune time and because their goalie was better than ours. We carried the play. The best teams don't always win every series. If you watched the series and thought the Sens carried the play, then there is no need to carry this debate on any further.

We lost for a few reasons, injuries, goaltending, and **** happens from time to time.

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09-28-2013, 09:51 AM
  #368
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I haven't suggested that some shots are better. You aren't reading my posts.

What I'm saying is that crashing the net makes a huge difference. You don't need a great shot when your goalie can't see the puck.

Almost every team in the league does this better than we do. We are a great skating team and we have our strengths but we don't go to the net (this has been a problem for a loooong time) and we don't defend in front of our own (this is a fairly recent problem.)

Markov and Diaz and good with the puck but they're soft as butter and for whatever reason our coach has decided not to play PK on the PK or in criticial defensive situations. That leaves us with Tinordi and Murray. So cross your fingers and hope Price can step up because that's not a good group. Maybe if Gorges can come back... but that might be wishful thinking.

Get a real shutdown guy. It's not that hard and it's not a big ask. Just one guy would make a world of difference.

I like for you to show one number, just one, that suggests the habs don't crash the net. Then I would like you to go through the video tape and show me games where the habs crashed the net less than anyone else. You're full of ****.

The lack of net crashing, and net clearing had almost no impact on scoring, and preventing goals, as we were very good in both. If these were major concerns, they would show up on the score sheets, but they don't.

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09-28-2013, 09:57 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Once again, a whole lot of nothing. Sabremetrics is still in it's infancy, so lets ignore all the data that is currently there . More spread sheet bla bla.
Where did I say to ignore it? I don't think we should ignore it. But it's silly to sit there, look at a spreadsheet and then declare everything to be "100 percent fine."

That's just myopic thinking. And YES that's what you're doing. You sit there and accuse me of dismissing entirely those stats... I'm NOT doing this. But I don't see them as be all and end all. You do.
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I explained why our penalty killing sucks, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out.

Hal Gill is gone dude, maybe you should pick up one of those spreadsheets you go about others using too frequently, if you had, you know how good our PK was WITHOUT Hal Gill.
Hal Gill was our primary PKer. The other guy was Gorges (who was actually healthy.) As for us doing more with our roster on the PK... pretty sure I already said what we could do to improve it... play Subban.

That doesn't mean we don't need a true shutdown guy though.
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Every area can always be improved, no team is 100% in every area. However, going to the net, clearing the net ect are not huge, hue concerns, we have plenty of players crashing the net. It's a narrative of the mis-informed because we happen to be small up front. Yet the small guys crash the net like crazy.
Who? Apart from Gallagher who does this? We don't go there and screen the way other clubs do. And not to sound mean or anything but Gallagher is three apples high. He's not going to screen as well as bigger players would.

This is not some narrative... this is fact. (A very well known fact around the league) And it's a big reason why we don't win in the playoffs.

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We got beat by the Sens because we suffered some key injuries at an inopportune time and because their goalie was better than ours. We carried the play. The best teams don't always win every series. If you watched the series and thought the Sens carried the play, then there is no need to carry this debate on any further.

We lost for a few reasons, injuries, goaltending, and **** happens from time to time.
We lost because they had tea parties in front of our net and Anderson saw almost every shot. Saying it's goaltending is a big oversimplification. We have a habit of making goalies look really good. Most of the time our D has been pretty good over the years but right now it's scary back there. That's why a lot of folks (not me) actually have us out of the playoffs.

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09-28-2013, 10:02 AM
  #370
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Right back at you.

No matter how many times you come here with advanced stats it won't change the fact that you need some guys to clear the net and go to the net. You aren't going to win cups with one dimensional teams.

And it's pretty clear you don't know what you're talking about because you seem to think we have the same PK unit that we had two years ago.
I'm guessing what you're referring to is the absence of Hal Gill not Scott Gomez. Gill was adept a shot-blocking and pass-lane blocking rather than just being a behemoth who clears the net. The Habs have some very good PK personnel it's just Daigneault's system that sucks.

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09-28-2013, 10:07 AM
  #371
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
We lost because they had tea parties in front of our net and Anderson saw almost every shot. Saying it's goaltending is a big oversimplification. We have a habit of making goalies look really good. Most of the time our D has been pretty good over the years but right now it's scary back there. That's why a lot of folks (not me) actually have us out of the playoffs.
If you watch the series the Habs did drive to the net with success and they did score off the rush. The Habs did out-chance the Sens and they had far better possession numbers. What they didn't have was a goalie with a .960 SV%.

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09-28-2013, 10:10 AM
  #372
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I like for you to show one number, just one, that suggests the habs don't crash the net. Then I would like you to go through the video tape and show me games where the habs crashed the net less than anyone else. You're full of ****.

The lack of net crashing, and net clearing had almost no impact on scoring, and preventing goals, as we were very good in both. If these were major concerns, they would show up on the score sheets, but they don't.
How about goals scored in the postseason? There's a stat that you can use right?

They show up in the totals in the playoffs where we haven't been particularly great at scoring over the years. The refs put their whistles away and we get smoked. Why? Because we don't go to the net... there are the odd years where we've done well but by and large we get crushed. Then we walk away and talk about how hot the opposing goalie was...

As for finding a stat that suggests that the Habs do/do-not crash the net... no stat exists. Which is exactly my point. You can't capture everything with stats in hockey, it is a fluid game that is much harder to quantify than baseball. NO this doesn't mean we should ignore all the stats but to sit there and say that we're 100% fine on the back end is ludicrous. And it's ludicrous to sit there and pretend we don't have any issues up front either.

If you look at my posts in recent years they've become increasingly optimistic by the way. I do think that we're on the right track. But we're ignoring an important aspect of the game and our teams are too one dimensional.

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09-28-2013, 10:17 AM
  #373
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If you watch the series the Habs did drive to the net with success and they did score off the rush. The Habs did out-chance the Sens and they had far better possession numbers. What they didn't have was a goalie with a .960 SV%.
In this post you prove my point.

We don't see them driving to the net (I don't think you understand what this means or you and I have different interpretations on this.)
We outchance them... I agree, no problem.
Better possession numbers... I agree. (And I've said I think we're the better team.)


Why do you think Anderson had a save percentage of 960? Is he that good? Or did we make his job easy by not screening him?

You can take all the shots you want but if you've got a good goalie (which Anderson is) at the other end, you have to screen him. That's what the Sens did with us and we couldn't do anything about it. Not saying Price was perfect or that he didn't let in some pucks that he could've stopped (he did) but he was also screened and there was usually somebody on his doorstep. It's a lot easier to make saves when you can SEE the puck like Anderson could.

Your stats don't capture this. You look at the spreadsheet and say... well, we had the puck, we had more chances we just didn't stop the puck and they did. But you don't ask WHY we didn't stop the puck and they did.

There's more going on than your spreadsheet can tell you. This is what I'm trying to explain to you. The numbers are there and your spreadsheet can't account for it. So you give a simplistic answer like "luck" or "goaltending"... it's more than that. And you have to watch the games to know this because no stat out there (as far as I know) can capture this aspect of the game.

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09-28-2013, 10:20 AM
  #374
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Nobody in their right mind could look at

Markov-Diaz
Gorges-Subban

..and say that they are reassured, and feel that we have a great defense. No way can people say something like that. Great defense means to play all the styles needed to be effective. This is the top 4 people. An aging Markov, a so-so Diaz and a Gorges who it might be too much to ask to be a top 4 now. Yes, we have Subban, so I guess playing him 30 minutes a game might strengthen that D....but aside from that, it sure would have needed reinforcement.

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09-28-2013, 10:20 AM
  #375
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I'm guessing what you're referring to is the absence of Hal Gill not Scott Gomez. Gill was adept a shot-blocking and pass-lane blocking rather than just being a behemoth who clears the net. The Habs have some very good PK personnel it's just Daigneault's system that sucks.
I agree on both counts because we should be playing Subban a lot more back there.

But we still need a shutdown guy. That would help tremendously. You won't get any argument from me that we should be doing better with what we have. But we STILL need a shutdown guy. If we get that then we'd be infinitely better (with a better system of course.)

As for Gill, he was great on the PK and was esp good at getting to rebounds. Something we're terrible at right now.


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