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Orpik's Inevitable Re-sign (Now with 100% Less Nathan Horton)

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Old
10-06-2013, 07:08 PM
  #226
BlindWillyMcHurt
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That's a great call on Whitney.

Remember that at one time he was very much considered a big part of "the core." Things change quickly. Or, at least... sometimes they should.

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10-06-2013, 07:09 PM
  #227
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Jacob made a good point about Despres in another thread. He's in that awkward position where he's not a prospect and not really proven to be an NHLer either. I don't think trading him is prudent unless we get a really strong offer in return (which again seems unlikely given the way he's viewed around the league). You pretty much have to play him no matter what your plans for him are moving forward. If they just sit him and let his stock diminish that's a huge mistake imo.

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10-06-2013, 07:09 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
so what you're saying is, trade Nisky and Orpik NOW!!! and run this:

Scuderi - Letang
Despres - Martin
Maatta - Bortuzzo
Engelland

?

I like the cut of your jib, sir.
Uh, I said it first. So, you look at a post that isn't mine and call me drunk and ignore something I posted before Jiggy and call him sober. Et tu, Cappe, et tu?

P.S.: In that plan, you've got Dumoulin as a safety net if Despres eats himself out of the lineup and the deadline if need be.

P.P.S.: Imagine what teams would offer NOW for Orpik.

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10-06-2013, 07:11 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Great in theory, but the numbers really don't work. Letang, Martin, Scuds, and Borts are top six next year.

If you resign Orpik, then there's only one spot NEXT YEAR for Maatta (maybe ready now, definitely next year), Dumoulin (ready now, organization says ready last year), Despres, and maybe even Harrington (who's growth can't be anticipated but wouldn't shock if he's ready next year).
Obviously I'm in the camp that gets rid of Orpik. I'm just saying that if you want to keep him around, you'd only want him for a 2 year deal at most, and there's no chance he takes that when some team can overpay him on the open market over a 5 year deal.

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10-06-2013, 07:12 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Uh, I said it first. So, you look at a post that isn't mine and call me drunk and ignore something I posted before Jiggy and call him sober. Et tu, Cappe, et tu?

P.S.: In that plan, you've got Dumoulin as a safety net if Despres eats himself out of the lineup and the deadline if need be.

P.P.S.: Imagine what teams would offer NOW for Orpik.
sorry, I can't read.

alternate universe:

Kunitz - Crosby - Bennett
Juice - Malkin - Neal
Kobasew - Sutter - Dupuis
Jeffrey - Vitale - Adams

Scuderi - Letang
Despres - Martin
Maatta - Bortuzzo

like, oh my god.

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10-06-2013, 07:17 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by BlindWillyMcHurt View Post
That's a great call on Whitney.

Remember that at one time he was very much considered a big part of "the core." Things change quickly. Or, at least... sometimes they should.
Moving Orpik would be that bold. But, as I said, we're asking in the other thread what Anaheim would give for Nisky, and the answer is not much. They need a tough guy who can play 20 hard minutes a night. Well, what would they give for Orpik. Would some of those names we can't get for Nisky or Despres be on the table? What about from another team?

Think about it. In an ideal world, the third line would be Dupuis-Sutter-Kobasew. Bennett, Neal, and Kunitz would be three of your top four wingers. Can you get the younger fourth winger with a Bennett type skill set for Orpik? Imagine both Sid AND Geno getting a guy like Bennett, and all you'd pay for it is a guy who you can't afford to keep and who could be replaced by one of two guys sitting in WBS.

IMO, if you think Maatta is ready, then you move Nisky too.

I'm not saying to give anyone away. But, if people are calling about Orpik, then I hope Shero is listening.

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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
sorry, I can't read.

alternate universe:

Kunitz - Crosby - Bennett
Juice - Malkin - Neal
Kobasew - Sutter - Dupuis
Jeffrey - Vitale - Adams

Scuderi - Letang
Despres - Martin
Maatta - Bortuzzo

like, oh my god.
No, in my alternate universe, I imagine that we get a young Bennett type forward for Orpik, slot one of him and Bennett with Sid/Kunitz and the other with Geno/Neal, then make a third line Duper-Sutter-Chucky and a fourth line two of JJ, Jeffrey, and Vitale playing with Adams.

And, by the way, what about Dumoulin? And, push comes to shove, it's not as if Shero can't just make a deadline move for a safety net rental for D in case one of the kids goes through what Tanger went through in the first finals run.

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10-06-2013, 07:19 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
Obviously I'm in the camp that gets rid of Orpik. I'm just saying that if you want to keep him around, you'd only want him for a 2 year deal at most, and there's no chance he takes that when some team can overpay him on the open market over a 5 year deal.
Completely agree. Will be really interesting to see if Shero has the stones. Say what you will, but this one would be a Whitney type of OMG deal.

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10-06-2013, 07:26 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
No, in my alternate universe, I imagine that we get a young Bennett type forward for Orpik, slot one of him and Bennett with Sid/Kunitz and the other with Geno/Neal, then make a third line Duper-Sutter-Chucky and a fourth line two of JJ, Jeffrey, and Vitale playing with Adams.

And, by the way, what about Dumoulin? And, push comes to shove, it's not as if Shero can't just make a deadline move for a safety net rental for D in case one of the kids goes through what Tanger went through in the first finals run.
BRUCE ORPECK for Brett Connolly?!?!

But seriously, I don't think Juice with Malkin/Neal is the end of the world. Only a stopgap, but not a bad one.

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10-06-2013, 07:27 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
BRUCE ORPECK for Brett Connolly?!?!

But seriously, I don't think Juice with Malkin/Neal is the end of the world. Only a stopgap, but not a bad one.
No, it's fine as a stop gap. BUT, in the same way Bennett > Dupuis for Sid/Kunitz, Bennett > Juice for Geno/Neal. Why not move Orpik and get two sunshines? Solves the problem and allows you to run an ideal third line.

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10-06-2013, 07:29 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
No, it's fine as a stop gap. BUT, in the same way Bennett > Dupuis for Sid/Kunitz, Bennett > Juice for Geno/Neal. Why not move Orpik and get two sunshines? Solves the problem and allows you to run an ideal third line.
if you can do it, I'm not saying no. I don't know what 70 games of Orpik gets you.

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10-06-2013, 07:30 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Dumoulin, or should we move him too?

Right now, Despres and Dumoulin can play. No spots. Maatta is showing he probably could stick for the year. No spot for him when Tanger returns. Tell me why we couldn't move both Orpik and Nisky right now if there are good hockey trades available.

It would just be such an outside the box move and yet no less a surprise than the Whitney trade once you think about it. And, for Orpik, Anaheim is the perfect trade partner, because we can afford to move him and they have precisely the type of assets we crave that I think they'd give for a guy like Orpik.

Then again, if Orpik were on the table, I'm sure Shero would have quite the bidding war going.
My thought process is trade Nisky to make room for Despres. Send Maatta back. Keep Orpik.

Next season, let Orpik walk and slide Despres into his spot, next to Martin

If Maatta, Dumoulin, or Harrington is ready, slide them next to Bort on the third pair. Then use some of that extra cap space to sign a vet as your seventh.

So next season I would roll:

Letang Scuds
Martin Despres
Bort Dumoulin
Vet blueliner

Then let Maatta and Harrington grab ice time when the inevitable injuries hit. By the end of next season, if all goes well, Shero will have a ******** of options. Young guys like Bort, Despres, and Dumoulin will have significantly raised their trade value if Shero wants to move one of them to make room for the other kids.

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10-06-2013, 07:33 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
so what you're saying is, trade Nisky and Orpik NOW!!! and run this:

Scuderi - Letang
Despres - Martin
Maatta - Bortuzzo
Engelland

?

I like the cut of your jib, sir.
I would have to have just clawed my way out of a glue bag to think Shero will ever do that.

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10-06-2013, 07:35 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
My thought process is trade Nisky to make room for Despres. Send Maatta back. Keep Orpik.

Next season, let Orpik walk and slide Despres into his spot, next to Martin

If Maatta, Dumoulin, or Harrington is ready, slide them next to Bort on the third pair. Then use some of that extra cap space to sign a vet as your seventh.

So next season I would roll:

Letang Scuds
Martin Despres
Bort Dumoulin
Vet blueliner

Then let Maatta and Harrington grab ice time when the inevitable injuries hit. By the end of next season, if all goes well, Shero will have a ******** of options. Young guys like Bort, Despres, and Dumoulin will have significantly raised their trade value if Shero wants to move one of them to make room for the other kids.
I can live with that. I was just under the impression that Dumoulin, while hurt, also is ready right now.

I guess this is how I look at it: If a good hockey trade presents itself for Nisky or Orpik or even both, then you can make the move. If you're not liking the return for Nisky but you can get a Bennett type talent for Orpik, then maybe you move Orpik, keep Nisky, and let Nisky walk.

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10-06-2013, 07:37 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
I would have to have just clawed my way out of a glue bag to think Shero will ever do that.
Yeah, but wouldn't it be nice if it meant maybe whatever kid you get for Orpik with Sid and Kunitz and Bennett with Geno and Neal and a Dupuis-Sutter-Chucky third line?

Seriously, what do you think Orpik's value is. If we moved Morrow for Morrow at the deadline, then what would Anaheim or a team like them move for Orpik now?

As I said, it would be a Whitney level ZOMG move.

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10-06-2013, 07:40 PM
  #240
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Tbh, trading Orpik to let Despres have a spot seems really appealing. Even if we keep Niskanen, we can run with:

Letang-Scuderi
Despres-Martin
Niskanen-Bortuzzo

If Despres is struggling in a top-4 role, they can run with:

Letang-Martin
Scuderi-Niskanen
Despres-Bortuzzo

I still think the Pens need to have a Martin-Letang pair. It is the first time that we'd have 2 legit top pairing D on our top pair. Niskanen-Scuderi has looked pretty solid so far as well.

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10-06-2013, 07:42 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
I can live with that. I was just under the impression that Dumoulin, while hurt, also is ready right now.

I guess this is how I look at it: If a good hockey trade presents itself for Nisky or Orpik or even both, then you can make the move. If you're not liking the return for Nisky but you can get a Bennett type talent for Orpik, then maybe you move Orpik, keep Nisky, and let Nisky walk.
I think Dumoulin is close to ready now, but Bort and Despres are ahead of him. I don't think another year will stunt his growth and honestly, he will get some long looks when the injury curse hits as it always does.

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10-06-2013, 07:45 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
I think Dumoulin is close to ready now, but Bort and Despres are ahead of him. I don't think another year will stunt his growth and honestly, he will get some long looks when the injury curse hits as it always does.
Fair enough. That said, IAmError29 made a good point. You can trade Orpik rather than Nisky. Nisky, I think most agree, has very limited trade value. Orpik, by contrast, has higher trade value . . . the whole big, tough defender with cup experience thing. As I said, if we gave up Morrow for an obviously over the hill Morrow at the deadline, then what would someone give for an almost full year of Orpik who showed in last year's playoffs that he's still got a bit left in the tank?

FYI, I'm asking you as a talent evaluator and someone who gets the thinking of other teams in the league. What is Orpik's value out there?

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10-06-2013, 07:50 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Yeah, but wouldn't it be nice if it meant maybe whatever kid you get for Orpik with Sid and Kunitz and Bennett with Geno and Neal and a Dupuis-Sutter-Chucky third line?

Seriously, what do you think Orpik's value is. If we moved Morrow for Morrow at the deadline, then what would Anaheim or a team like them move for Orpik now?

As I said, it would be a Whitney level ZOMG move.
Orpik is a great skating, early 30s rugged blueliner who has a big rep as an intimidating hitter, he was a top four blueliner on a cup winning team, and is known as a good leader. I don't buy he is as broken down as others say. Besides, his value comes in the playoffs.

I think he would have significant value. Ie he could easily land KP. If he was moved at the deadline, the return would be that much higher.

However, he isn't a guy I want to see moved though and the only reason I keep saying he shouldn't be re-upped is cap restraints.

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10-06-2013, 07:54 PM
  #244
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Just for curiosity's sake, I posted a "value of Orpik" thread in the Trade Board. I'll edit this posts with offers from that.

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10-06-2013, 08:02 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
Orpik is a great skating, early 30s rugged blueliner who has a big rep as an intimidating hitter, he was a top four blueliner on a cup winning team, and is known as a good leader. I don't buy he is as broken down as others say. Besides, his value comes in the playoffs.

I think he would have significant value. Ie he could easily land KP. If he was moved at the deadline, the return would be that much higher.

However, he isn't a guy I want to see moved though and the only reason I keep saying he shouldn't be re-upped is cap restraints.
I don't want him re-upped because of cap constraints and because I cannot fathom two of Despres, Maatta, and Dumoulin starting NEXT YEAR in WBS. And, it's not like I don't think he has value.

But, here's the truth: The cupboard is bare up front. Nobody is close. Unless we move Despres for a young forward, our only other big chip is Orpik, a guy we're far more likely than not going to lose after this season.

So, if a good hockey trade is to be had for Orpik, then I think you should entertain it. I see the Orpik case a lot like the Whitney case. It's about cap and asset management, and all the numbers suggest it's better to move Orpik than to keep him.

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10-06-2013, 08:03 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
I've already assumed they won't be on the roster next season. The primary thing here is cap space, not making room for the young guys.
Okay, but that was the part of your post I was responding to. You said "I've been a huge Orpik fan for years, but at what point do you start making room for the young guys?". There would be room for young guys.

Quote:
For me it's not about getting rid of Orpik, it's about cap flexibility. Nisky and Engo will both need raises, as will Orpik. Where is the money for these guys? I don't see it...
That's what I want too.

Quote:
I've put the raw numbers out there several times now and no one has been able to show me a viable lineup that keeps Orpik, assuming a 70m cap.
I think the cap hits for Despres and Kobasew are projected high for one guy who didn't earn an opening night roster spot and another who got on via PTO (they may well earn that much, but they're a fair ways off from that now). I also think the numbers for Sutter/3rd line FA/Orpik could be enough lower than your projections to find more than enough wiggle room to ice a couple depth forwards.

It'd be tight, but it's tight this year too.

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10-06-2013, 08:07 PM
  #247
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The more obvious difference between Hossa and Dupuis is their ability to finish. Since Hossa can finish if left alone, he can't be left alone, which opens up space. Bennett hasn't even shown Dupuis' ability to finish, let alone Hossa's.

I don't see how Bennett being able to pass, but not shoot, buys Sid one inch of additional ice from a team like Boston or Montreal.
Honest to God, I have no idea where you get the impression that Bennett can't shoot. He's pass-first, but the kid can snipe.



Dupuis couldn't score that goal in tight if his life depended on it.

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10-06-2013, 08:14 PM
  #248
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Okay, but that was the part of your post I was responding to. You said "I've been a huge Orpik fan for years, but at what point do you start making room for the young guys?". There would be room for young guys.



That's what I want too.



I think the cap hits for Despres and Kobasew are projected high for one guy who didn't earn an opening night roster spot and another who got on via PTO (they may well earn that much, but they're a fair ways off from that now). I also think the numbers for Sutter/3rd line FA/Orpik could be enough lower than your projections to find more than enough wiggle room to ice a couple depth forwards.

It'd be tight, but it's tight this year too.
IF that's what Orpik will take, which he might.

The bigger question, again, is this: Scuds and Letang aren't going. Methinks Shero wants to keep Martin. Borts is in the top six. If you resigned Orpik for even two years, then which three out of Despres, Dumoulin, Maatta, and Harrington won't play regularly until 2015?

It's not even the cap that's the issue. It's the other numbers game. Nisky is gone. One of Scuds, Letang, Martin, or Orpik should go after this season too.

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10-06-2013, 08:23 PM
  #249
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Okay, but that was the part of your post I was responding to. You said "I've been a huge Orpik fan for years, but at what point do you start making room for the young guys?". There would be room for young guys.
I think Despres will be ready for top four minutes by next season, and could replace Orpik. So basically what I meant was why would you re-sign Orpik when the cap is going to be so tight if you do, when you have a guy ready to take his place?

Quote:
I think the cap hits for Despres and Kobasew are projected high for one guy who didn't earn an opening night roster spot and another who got on via PTO (they may well earn that much, but they're a fair ways off from that now). I also think the numbers for Sutter/3rd line FA/Orpik could be enough lower than your projections to find more than enough wiggle room to ice a couple depth forwards.

It'd be tight, but it's tight this year too.
We are assuming Sutter and Despres will have avg years. If even one of them has a good year, especially Despres, that number could be right out of whack. If Despres has a good year he could easily command 2.5m and that would be a bargain.

If Kobasew has a good year, 15 goals, 30-35 points, 1.5m isn't exactly an overpayment. Tanner Glass is making 1.1m, c'mon now.

You can't expect to pay peanuts and have a legit third line. I said before it is quite reasonable to pay about 3m for wingers to flank Sutter.

Nothing is set in stone, but a whole host of things really have to fall into place perfectly for Orpik to re-up without severe corner cutting.

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10-06-2013, 08:26 PM
  #250
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I think Despres will be ready for top four minutes by next season, and could replace Orpik. So basically what I meant was why would you re-sign Orpik when the cap is going to be so tight if you do, when you have a guy ready to take his place?



We are assuming Sutter and Despres will have avg years. If even one of them has a good year, especially Despres, that number could be right out of whack. If Despres has a good year he could easily command 2.5m and that would be a bargain.

If Kobasew has a good year, 15 goals, 30-35 points, 1.5m isn't exactly an overpayment. Tanner Glass is making 1.1m, c'mon now.

You can't expect to pay peanuts and have a legit third line. I said before it is quite reasonable to pay about 3m for wingers to flank Sutter.

Nothing is set in stone, but a whole host of things really have to fall into place perfectly for Orpik to re-up without severe corner cutting.
If Despres is ready for top four minutes, then why not trade Orpik now?

Sorry to beat this drum, but IMO the Pens this year are better off with Despres and what you'd get for Orpik (in its own right and in terms of how you can slot other forwards) than Glass and Orpik with Despres in WBS.

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