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2013-14 Qualitative +/- Ratings

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Old
10-15-2013, 09:24 AM
  #26
bilpeto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Game 5 vs Los Angeles Kings
10/11/2013
2-1 SO Loss




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

none

Totals
...


Well, that was easy.


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Old
10-15-2013, 09:43 AM
  #27
tarheelhockey
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Game 6 vs Phoenix Coyotes
10/13/2013
5-3 Loss




ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:07 Eric Staal (unassisted)
+1 Eric Staal - Lucky bounce off the glass, and he did a decent job of settling the puck and getting a good shot before Smith had time to challenge.
edit: +1 Tlusty - Lucky or not, the bounce was the result of Tlusty's forcing an awkward, weak clearing attempt.

2nd 7:11 Nash (Murphy, Harrison)
+1 Nash - Picture-perfect deflection, and it's nice to see Nash staking out space in front of the net for this kind of goal.
+1 Murphy - He was at kind of a funny angle to the net and did a good job delivering the puck on goal with correct timing and velocity.
+1 Harrison - Ordinarily this wouldn't seem like much of a play, but Canes defensemen have screwed it up more often than not this season. A simple, crisp pass is nice to see.
+1 Dvorak - Again, simple short passes are enough of a rarity lately that they can't be taken for granted.


ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 8:34 Klinkhammer (Bissonette, Kennedy)
-1 Murphy - That's crazy soft play from a defenseman in the corner and in front of the net. You just cannot have that at the NHL level, the forwards eat that stuff for breakfast.
-1 Sutter - Likewise, you cannot have a center taking himself out of the play behind the net and then coming softly back to the crease on a scramble. The Canes were simply out-muscled here and these two players were noticeably sub-NHL-level in their efforts.

2nd 15:58 Korpikoski (Ribeiro, Moss)
-1 Eric Staal - We've complained about this for years and it rears its ugly head again -- Eric Staal reaching for the puck rather than moving his feet and staying with it. This play should have been under control, and went haywire because his stabs at the puck created spacing issues, screwing over Bellemore and Hainsey behind him.

3rd 0:22 Klinkhammer (Michalek, Smith)
-1 Eric Staal - Tripp pretty well called Eric out for this one on the broadcast. To put it in his words, "that's not the time you wanna reach". He knows the defenseman is committed to the pinch, he knows how to play the point having done it on the PP many times before. He simply cannot lunge at the puck in that situation, knowing how much empty ice is behind him.

Totals
+1 Dvorak
+1 Harrison
+1 Nash
+1 Tlusty
-1 Eric Staal
-1 Sutter


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-15-2013 at 11:04 AM.
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Old
10-15-2013, 09:45 AM
  #28
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Updated ratings

Player Plus Minus Total Margin Of Error
Forwards
Drayson Bowman - 1 -1 -
Patrick Dwyer - 1 -1 -
Radek Dvorak 4 1 +3 -
Nathan Gerbe 2 - +2 -
Elias Lindholm 1 2 -1 -1
Riley Nash 2 - +2 -
Alex Semin 1 1 0 -
Jeff Skinner 3 1 +2 -
Eric Staal 2 3 -1 -
Jordan Staal 1 - +1 -
Brett Sutter - 2 -2 -
Jiri Tlusty 1 1 0 -


Defensemen Plus Minus Total Margin of Error
Brett Bellemore - 1 -1 -
Justin Faulk 3 - +3 -
Tim Gleason - - - -
Ron Hainsey - 1 -1 -
Jay Harrison 1 - +1 -
Ryan Murphy 2 2 0 -
Andrej Sekera 2 - +2 -


Goaltender Errors
Player Errors
Anton Khudobin 1
Cam Ward -


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-15-2013 at 11:04 AM.
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Old
10-15-2013, 10:21 AM
  #29
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Eric leading the way again...


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Old
10-15-2013, 10:38 AM
  #30
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We only have two defensemen with minus rankings thus far. Something must be wrong!

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Old
10-15-2013, 11:00 AM
  #31
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in the Phoenix game on Eric's goal off the glass bounce, shouldn't Jiri get a plus for his forechecking not giving the defenseman time except to just try to clear it any way he could? lucky perhaps, but if the guy had time that goal doesn't happen. Jiri caused that IMO.

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Old
10-15-2013, 11:02 AM
  #32
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rocky7 View Post
in the Phoenix game on Eric's goal off the glass bounce, shouldn't Jiri get a plus for his forechecking not giving the defenseman time except to just try to clear it any way he could? lucky perhaps, but if the guy had time that goal doesn't happen. Jiri caused that IMO.
That's a good point, I agree Jiri should get a plus there.

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Old
10-15-2013, 01:01 PM
  #33
Anton Dubinchuk
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Faulk still doesn't have a single minus.

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Old
10-15-2013, 01:18 PM
  #34
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I'd give Bellemore a minus on the Korpikoski goal. Eric put him in a bad spot but he took away neither the shot nor the pass on a 2 on 1, and was laying on his face while doing so.

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Old
10-15-2013, 01:27 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
Faulk still doesn't have a single minus.
He was directly responsible for the Kings shorthanded goal, but since it's special teams it's not counted here.

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Old
10-16-2013, 02:54 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
I'd give Bellemore a minus on the Korpikoski goal. Eric put him in a bad spot but he took away neither the shot nor the pass on a 2 on 1, and was laying on his face while doing so.
I dunno, I feel like that's a situation where the defenseman just has to block the low lane and hope for the best. Since he's defending a guy coming out of the corner, he doesn't know where the other guy is in the slot behind him. He can't back up and take the slot man because the shooter will just walk it in front. He can't take the shot because it's too far away. He can't defend the high lane because even a mite player will go back-door if given the opportunity.

So he did the only thing he could do in that position -- denied the low-slot passing lane completely and cut off the front of the net from the shooter. Ribeiro was able to pass around him because he was just THAT open to begin with, and Hainsey couldn't have known he needed to cover down. To me, the defensemen were just completely screwed over by Staal's poor decisions.

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10-16-2013, 03:16 PM
  #37
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Game 7 vs Chicago Blackhawks
10/16/2013
3-2 SO Loss




ES GOALS FOR

3rd 3:54 Semin (Eric Staal, Ruutu)
+1 Harrison - Harrison gathered a turnover and moved it efficiently into an offensive transition. The lack of passes like this has been a huge issue for the team lately.
+1 Murphy - Little offensive plays like this are so critical to his development. A lot of defensemen won't risk that pass, but he put it perfectly on Semin's tape and supported the puck once it was in.
+1 Ruutu - It could have been a prettier pass, but he made a nice decision to support Murphy and then find Staal on the opposite side. All together, the Harrison-Murphy-Ruutu sequence here might have been their best zone entry of the night.
+1 Eric Staal - Not sure why he took a slap shot there, but what the hell. It worked.
+1 Semin - Nice work on the entry play and then a hell of a shot to finish it.

3rd 12:33 Hainsey (unassisted)
+1 Hainsey - This was just an unbelievably patient shot. With that much room, I think everyone in the building expected an immediate shot. Waiting for the screen to slowly drift across Crawford was sublime hockey sense.
+1 Nash - No way that shot gets by Crawford without Nash in his face.
+1 Dvorak - I thought he might have tipped the clearing pass, slowing it for Hainsey. In any case, his and Nash's pressure along the boards made the turnover possible.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 7:56 Sharp (Handzus)
-1 Bellemore - Flat-out beaten down the ice by a faster skater.

1st 10:18 Hossa (Saad, Shaw)
Eric Staal had just stepped out of the box when this was scored; per project rules, this isn't counted. Bellemore got lucky.

Totals
+1 Dvorak
+1 Hainsey
+1 Harrison
+1 Murphy
+1 Nash
+1 Ruutu
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
-1 Bellemore

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Old
10-21-2013, 12:09 PM
  #38
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Game 8 @ Toronto Maple Leafs
10/17/2013
3-2 Win




ES GOALS FOR

3rd 6:48 Eric Staal (Faulk)
+1 Eric Staal - Reimer Bernier would probably want that one back, but it was a much needed goal for Eric.
+1 Faulk - Looked like he was actually shooting for Semin, but it worked out well either way.
+1 Semin - Clamped in on the forecheck to cause the turnover.
+1 Tlusty - Drove the defender into Semin's trap, hopefully a sign that he's going to start doing the little things that made him so successful last year.

3rd 13:04 Hainsey (Ward)
Needless to say, this one will go in the books as a fluke.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 2:30 Lupul (Ranger)
-1 Dvorak - Surprisingly awful shift by Dvorak, who turns the puck over twice in his own zone... makes an ill-advised lunge at the blue line... then weakly drifts past a loose puck as it's being jammed into the net. Really screwed over both of his defensemen and his goalie on this shift.

2nd 6:47 Leivo (Bolland, Rielly)
-1 Sekera - Given what had just happened on the previous goal, he should have known better than to make a particularly ugly pinch against a developing 3-on-1. To say nothing of bouncing off Leivo like a gnat.

Totals
+1 Faulk
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Dvorak
-1 Sekera


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-21-2013 at 12:34 PM.
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Old
10-21-2013, 12:13 PM
  #39
Joe McGrath
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Game 8 @ Toronto Maple Leafs
10/17/2013
3-2 Win




ES GOALS FOR

3rd 6:48 Eric Staal (Faulk)
+1 Eric Staal - Reimer would probably want that one back, but it was a much needed goal for Eric.
+1 Faulk - Looked like he was actually shooting for Semin, but it worked out well either way.
+1 Semin - Clamped in on the forecheck to cause the turnover.
+1 Tlusty - Drove the defender into Semin's trap, hopefully a sign that he's going to start doing the little things that made him so successful last year.

3rd 13:04 Hainsey (Ward)
Needless to say, this one will go in the books as a fluke.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 2:30 Lupul (Ranger)
-1 Dvorak - Surprisingly awful shift by Dvorak, who turns the puck over twice in his own zone... makes an ill-advised lunge at the blue line... then weakly drifts past a loose puck as it's being jammed into the net. Really screwed over both of his defensemen and his goalie on this shift.

2nd 6:47 Leivo (Bolland, Rielly)
-1 Sekera - Given what had just happened on the previous goal, he should have known better than to make a particularly ugly pinch against a developing 3-on-1. To say nothing of bouncing off Leivo like a gnat.

Totals
+1 Faulk
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Dvorak
-1 Sekera
Nothing on the Hainsey snipe? For shame

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Old
10-21-2013, 12:31 PM
  #40
Anton Dubinchuk
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One of those "not helpful, but let me point out a tiny mistake" posts, but we played against Bernier in Toronto.

I'm sure Reimer WOULD'VE liked it back, though.

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Old
10-21-2013, 12:32 PM
  #41
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Game 9 @ New York Islanders
10/19/2013
4-3 Win




ES GOALS FOR
2nd 1:05 Tlusty (Eric Staal, Semin)
+1 Tlusty - Textbook breakout play, forwarding the puck to his center and then taking the center lane looking for a rebound. Can't draw it up any better than that.
+1 Semin - Typical stunning display of skill, faking a slapshot and then drifting a perfect pass through the defense.
+1 Eric Staal - Again, textbook demonstration of how to pass and drive the net to create opportunities on the rush.

2nd 13:37 Skinner (Nash, Ruutu)
+1 Skinner - He's been scoring a lot of points off the forecheck lately, hasn't he?
+1 Ruutu - Extremely well played at the blue line to keep the play alive.
+1 Nash - Beauty of a soft backhand pass. A little bit of chemistry developing between him and Skinner?

3rd 11:06 Tlusty (Semin, Eric Staal)
+1 Semin - How ****ing pretty is that pass? Are you kidding me? You can see the players laughing about it in the huddle.
+1 Tlusty - That was actually still a pretty good shot, and he would never have lived it down if he had missed.
+1 Eric Staal - Nice job clearing the puck past the pinch and into transition.

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 18:59 Okposo (Bouchard, Moulson)
Continuation of an expiring power play, no changes.

Totals
+2 Semin
+2 Eric Staal
+2 Tlusty
+1 Nash
+1 Ruutu
+1 Skinner

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Old
10-21-2013, 12:34 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
Nothing on the Hainsey snipe? For shame
I know you're joking, but it's one of the questionable parts of this subjective +/-. If the puck bounces off the end boards to Dvorak and Radek scores (a la stillman to cole), it might get considered a headsup play by Ron, and Hainsey might get a +. But because it goes straight into the net, there's no chance of him getting one.

The same with the Lindholm goal. Two deflections, so no plus. But if it had just gotten onto net, and Skinner had finished the rebound, he'd probably have gotten one for getting the puck towards the net.

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10-21-2013, 12:35 PM
  #43
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
Nothing on the Hainsey snipe? For shame
You're looking for the objective +/- thread, credit for that snipe is a matter of FACT

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
One of those "not helpful, but let me point out a tiny mistake" posts, but we played against Bernier in Toronto.

I'm sure Reimer WOULD'VE liked it back, though.
Derp, fixed.

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10-21-2013, 12:43 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by wallym View Post
The same with the Lindholm goal. Two deflections, so no plus. But if it had just gotten onto net, and Skinner had finished the rebound, he'd probably have gotten one for getting the puck towards the net.
He did get a plus after discussion -- see pg 1.

In the case of the Hainsey goal, he wasn't even trying to clear the puck all the way down the rink. It was a pass to the winger that missed its target. A true fluke, random event.

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10-21-2013, 01:21 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
He did get a plus after discussion -- see pg 1.

In the case of the Hainsey goal, he wasn't even trying to clear the puck all the way down the rink. It was a pass to the winger that missed its target. A true fluke, random event.
Yeah, both bad examples on my part. The point I was getting at, is every play has an impact on the likelihood of a goal being scored, and the result often cheats a lot of players out of the credit they deserve.

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10-21-2013, 01:27 PM
  #46
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Yeah, both bad examples on my part. The point I was getting at, is every play has an impact on the likelihood of a goal being scored, and the result often cheats a lot of players out of the credit they deserve.
Yeah, hockey is probably one of the hardest sports to track statistically for that exact reason. So many things depend on a confluence of variables, some of which are random and some of which are intentional.

In theory, if our sample size gets big enough and assuming we eliminate systemic biases, we should see significant trends emerge even if players get cheated on the micro scale from time to time.

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10-21-2013, 03:04 PM
  #47
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I guess the main point is to not look at this as some perfect stat but rather as an improvement over regular +/-.

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10-29-2013, 10:40 PM
  #48
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Game 10 @ Minnesota Wild
10/24/2013
3-1 Loss




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 11:55 Parise (Sturgeon, Suter)
-1 Skinner - Takes a horrible angle on Parise in the neutral zone, setting up a 4-on-2 entry for the Wild. Rookie-esque mistake.
-1 Eric Staal - Kind of an embarrassing moment when an opponent taps in an uncontested rebound right in front of your captain and #1 center like that.

Totals
-1 Skinner
-1 Eric Staal


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-29-2013 at 11:03 PM.
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10-29-2013, 11:03 PM
  #49
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Game 11 @ Colorado Avalanche
10/25/2013
4-2 Loss




ES GOALS FOR

2nd 0:12 Bowman (Jordan Staal, Sekera)
+1 Sekera - Brilliant headman pass through traffic, particularly nice because it came off the opening faceoff where there's a minimum of space in the neutral zone.
+1 Jordan Staal - Where has this been all season?
+1 Bowman - Elite shooting ability

3rd 2:40 Sekera (Tlusty, Semin)
+1 Semin - I know it's kind of silly to praise a dump-in, but really... how perfect was his touch on that?
+1 Tlusty - A nice Tlusty-like assist, winning the race to the puck and working it to the slot.
+1 Lindholm - One of those little subtle things, he curls to the net knowing he isn't open, but occupies a defender to open up the passing lane for Tlusty and Sekera to connect.
+1 Sekera - Really smart backdoor pinch and solid finish.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 11:30 Johnson (Stastny, Tanguay)
-1 Eric Staal - Ill-advised leap for the puck, followed by a crummy effort to block the passing lane, followed by failure to pick up the trailer. Eric is showing that he simply can't handle the defensive responsibility of playing the point.
-1 Komisarek - This is a demonstration of the principle that defensemen shouldn't leave their feet on a rush unless they are 100% certain that they can block the passing lane.

1st 17:33 Duchene (O'Reilly, Downie)
-1 Nash - Poor Riley Nash was just lost on this play. He arrived late to the zone, didn't seem to know where to go, lost O'Reilly and then got completely suckered by Duchene.

2nd 10:11 Tanguay (Duchene, Benoit)
-1 Faulk - He was simply watching Duchene from a distance, like a spectator, rather than marking his man. Tanguay ended up scoring right in his face.

Totals
+2 Sekera
+1 Bowman
+1 Lindholm
+1 Semin
+1 Jordan Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Faulk
-1 Komisarek
-1 Nash
-1 Eric Staal

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10-29-2013, 11:15 PM
  #50
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Game 12 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
10/28/2013
3-1 Loss




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 8:25 Glass (Megna, Orpik)
-1 Sekera - Not sure what he was thinking here. Just a complete misplay of the situation, especially off a face-off in the neutral zone where it should be fair to assume your defensemen will be in position.

2nd 16:24 Kunitz (Crosby, Orpik)
-1 Jordan Staal - That attempted stick-lift was weak sauce. Common sense should demand more effort on Kunitz when he's streaking straight to the net while Crosby has the puck.

3rd 7:11 Megna (Crosby, Orpik)
Not a lot anyone can do to defend that kind of bounce off a body. It wasn't a great shot by Crosby and Sekera was glued to Megna.

Totals
-1 Sekera
-1 Jordan Staal

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