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Goalie pad thigh rise reduction, save percentage higher than last season

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Old
10-16-2013, 11:33 PM
  #1
Hank4Hart
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Goalie pad thigh rise reduction, save percentage higher than last season

I saw this today online and I couldn't help but point this out to my fellow fans.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Rk Season Lg GP G PP PPO PP% PK% SA SV SV% GAA
1 2013-14 NHL 93 2.80 0.74 3.64 20.24 79.76 30.4 27.8 .913 2.64
2 2012-13 NHL 720 2.74 0.61 3.34 18.28 81.72 29.0 26.5 .912 2.54

The save percentage this season so far has been higher than that of last season's totals.

As a goalie myself who has had to argue with those people who complain about goalie gear sizing, I am so happy to see this.

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10-16-2013, 11:41 PM
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Beef Invictus
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If Bryzgalov were still starting for Philly that stat would be lower. GAA is higher though; if more goals are being scored, isn't that the point?

Either way it's still a small sample size for comparison.

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10-16-2013, 11:46 PM
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Hank4Hart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If Bryzgalov were still starting for Philly that stat would be lower. GAA is higher though; if more goals are being scored, isn't that the point?

Either way it's still a small sample size for comparison.
I see your Bryzgalov... and raise you a Devan Dubnyk

Goal totals will keep going down as the season goes on and more teams get their defensive system in check. I wouldn't be surprised to see the save percentage get even higher.

Yes its a small sample size, but the earliest part of the season has always been statistically the worst month for goalies, so IMO the numbers still do mean something.

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10-17-2013, 12:02 AM
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It's Ottawa's fault for giving up so many shots each game and having Lehner bail them out.

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10-17-2013, 12:24 AM
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Only 93 GP.

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10-17-2013, 12:38 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Way too soon for this to mean anything

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10-17-2013, 01:47 AM
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Small sample size, but I don't expect significant SV% changes either.

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10-17-2013, 02:08 AM
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Small sample size but statistically the first two weeks is always the worst week for goalies, I wish I could find statistics of goalies from last season's first two weeks.

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10-17-2013, 02:40 AM
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FYI: Last year, after the Jan 31 games (101 Total Games; 13 days) the league average GAA was 2.78; sv% was 0.906; pp% was 20.1%

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10-17-2013, 09:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank4Hart View Post
I saw this today online and I couldn't help but point this out to my fellow fans.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Rk Season Lg GP G PP PPO PP% PK% SA SV SV% GAA
1 2013-14 NHL 93 2.80 0.74 3.64 20.24 79.76 30.4 27.8 .913 2.64
2 2012-13 NHL 720 2.74 0.61 3.34 18.28 81.72 29.0 26.5 .912 2.54

The save percentage this season so far has been higher than that of last season's totals.

As a goalie myself who has had to argue with those people who complain about goalie gear sizing, I am so happy to see this.
This means nothing until you only look at 5v5 SV%. Are the penalties being called the same, giving the same % of 4v5 and 3v5 time? That has a significant effect on total SV%.

My quick look at 5v5 SV% (not a true look as I am averaging the SV% of each goaltender, not summing the total shots and goals)

2013 - 92.05%
2012 - 92.70%

I would say these are basically equal.


Last edited by wgknestrick: 10-17-2013 at 09:16 AM.
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10-21-2013, 01:11 AM
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93 games is an acceptable sample size, but would need to be compared to the same time last year. It always seems like things tighten up about mid-to-late season, whereas the beginning of the season we see some crazy scores as things gel.

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10-21-2013, 08:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by intangible View Post
93 games is an acceptable sample size, but would need to be compared to the same time last year. It always seems like things tighten up about mid-to-late season, whereas the beginning of the season we see some crazy scores as things gel.
No, it is absolutely not an acceptable sample size when looking at league wide trends.

You're looking at roughly 2800 shots taken. At that level of shots 3 goals is a difference of .001 in save percentage. The difference between the two statlines in the OP is literally a couple of good/bad bounces.

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10-21-2013, 10:19 AM
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It doesn't make sense to use every goalie in the league. Some goaltenders had 0 reduction in the pad sizes. A comparison of length reduction and changes in save percentage on a goalie to goalie basis would show how much effect the reductions a lot more effectively. Even then, the sample size is still too small. You have to give goalies time to adjust to their new pad sizes.

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10-28-2013, 01:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank4Hart View Post
I saw this today online and I couldn't help but point this out to my fellow fans.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Rk Season Lg GP G PP PPO PP% PK% SA SV SV% GAA
1 2013-14 NHL 93 2.80 0.74 3.64 20.24 79.76 30.4 27.8 .913 2.64
2 2012-13 NHL 720 2.74 0.61 3.34 18.28 81.72 29.0 26.5 .912 2.54

The save percentage this season so far has been higher than that of last season's totals.

As a goalie myself who has had to argue with those people who complain about goalie gear sizing, I am so happy to see this.
One problem is that you're only comparing the (so far, very brief) 2013-2014 season to the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season. The lockout-shortened season has its own anomalies from being shortened. If you look at the trend line over the previous seasons, you see this:
05/06: .901
06/07: .905
07/08: .909
08/09: .908
09/10: .911
10/11: .913
11/12: .914
12/13: .912
13/14: .914

The overall trend has been an increase in save percentage each year. If you toss the outlier 12/13 season for not truly being comparable, then 13/14 is actually flat compared to 11/12 so far. Let's see how things play out over a full season before making any kind of judgement.

Incidentally, you can see that the lockout-shortened 94/95 season is also an outlier in comparison to the seasons around it, which is what makes me think that comparing only to the 12/13 season is going to be misleading.

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Old
10-28-2013, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank4Hart View Post
I see your Bryzgalov... and raise you a Devan Dubnyk

Goal totals will keep going down as the season goes on and more teams get their defensive system in check. I wouldn't be surprised to see the save percentage get even higher.

Yes its a small sample size, but the earliest part of the season has always been statistically the worst month for goalies, so IMO the numbers still do mean something.
Throw Bryzgalov in on top of Dubnyk and the stats still drop, not sure why you're raising me.

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10-28-2013, 04:23 PM
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You're not exactly lying, but saying "save percentage higher" is not being very honest. You would be better off saying "save percentage roughly the same" because 1 goal in 1000 shots is not enough to call anything a trend.

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