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Old
10-19-2013, 04:51 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Winston Wolf View Post
Yeah, the Flyers chances aren't great, however, comparing this year to prior years is kind of moot with the new division set up. If they were in any other division in the league, I'd agree that the chances of coming back are almost non-existent, but there's not really a good team in the Metropolitan division outside of Pittsburgh and to a much lesser extent, the Islanders. They still have a lot of games against the Devils, Rangers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, and Capitals. If they can do very well in division play, they can get the third seed in the division.
OK so building off this (which I definitely agree with), what do you guys think this teams chances are if they come out of this week break with the offense playing like they did the last two seasons, the defense playing decent like the beginning of this season, and Mason playing like he has since he came here? I think if that happens then this could be a pretty scary team.

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Old
10-19-2013, 04:53 PM
  #27
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Flyers defense in 3-4 years after drafting Ekblad.

Ekblad - Hagg
Morin - Gus
Ghost - Schenn


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Old
10-19-2013, 04:54 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by OgbertTheNerd View Post
Flyers defense in 3-4 years after drafting Ekblad.

Ekblad - Hagg
Morin - Gus
Ghost - Schenn

If they reach there potentials that would be a beast of a d-core. Still so early though.

Funny to think Gus would be the oldest player of them all

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Old
10-19-2013, 06:55 PM
  #29
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Just don't jinx our early plan

A good player in 14. The good news for us is the devils forfeit in 14' so that will help our position. Ekblad sure, Reinhard sure. Yah this draft will be good, not great, but if we still stink for 74 games, we will have a very good full cupboard.

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10-19-2013, 07:14 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Winston Wolf View Post
Yeah, the Flyers chances aren't great, however, comparing this year to prior years is kind of moot with the new division set up. If they were in any other division in the league, I'd agree that the chances of coming back are almost non-existent, but there's not really a good team in the Metropolitan division outside of Pittsburgh and to a much lesser extent, the Islanders. They still have a lot of games against the Devils, Rangers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, and Capitals. If they can do very well in division play, they can get the third seed in the division.
Is that something you would really want though? I mean, if they're only good enough to make the playoffs by default because the division sucks I'd rather get a good draft pick then see them get destroyed in the playoffs.

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10-19-2013, 08:18 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
Is that something you would really want though? I mean, if they're only good enough to make the playoffs by default because the division sucks I'd rather get a good draft pick then see them get destroyed in the playoffs.
Yes, definitely. I'm not optimistic that it happens anyways, but last time they snuck in the playoffs, they were two games away from winning it all. The Kings barely made it the year they won a cup. Not saying that this team compares to those teams, but I'd rather they get playoff experience and see what happens. I'd rather they not turn into a loser franchise and miss the playoffs in consecutive years if they don't have to.

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10-19-2013, 08:19 PM
  #32
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Is that something you would really want though? I mean, if they're only good enough to make the playoffs by default because the division sucks I'd rather get a good draft pick then see them get destroyed in the playoffs.
I watch regular season hockey for my team to get to the playoff runs not to get a high draft pick. Even a high draft pick doesn't guarantee anything. JVR didn't do much.

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Old
10-19-2013, 08:57 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Winston Wolf View Post
Yes, definitely. I'm not optimistic that it happens anyways, but last time they snuck in the playoffs, they were two games away from winning it all. The Kings barely made it the year they won a cup. Not saying that this team compares to those teams, but I'd rather they get playoff experience and see what happens. I'd rather they not turn into a loser franchise and miss the playoffs in consecutive years if they don't have to.
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Originally Posted by brewcrew8 View Post
I watch regular season hockey for my team to get to the playoff runs not to get a high draft pick. Even a high draft pick doesn't guarantee anything. JVR didn't do much.
The second and third place teams in the Metro are only one point above the amount of games played they have. Meaning, at this rate, we could feasibly end the season with 83 points and still make the playoffs which was the original point of discussion.

This playoff system is different from the previous one and usually it wouldn't matter too much but considering how remarkably bad our division is it could actually mess with the playoffs a bit. Since the 04-05 lockout the worst record any team has ever made the playoffs with in terms of points achieved is 88 and that was still the 19th placed team. Most of the time even the worst of the playoff teams still require at least point records in the low 90's.

So 83 is far off from that. In LA's year they still achieved 95 points and were the 13th place team league-wide. The year we made a run at the SCF was probably one of the biggest runs at the Cup from one of the worst teams possible (we were barely a top 20 team that season and made the playoffs via a shootout) and despite pretty much everything working out for us (beating NY in the shootout, coming back from 0-3 against Boston) we still lost in the end.

So, going back to what you originally posted, I'd rather just get the draft pick and build towards the future rather then a fruitless run with an 83 point team. Even in a normal playoff year you can't bank on a 90 or so point team making a run at it and and 83 point team would just be historically bad for a playoff team in the modern era.

As for draft picks not being a "sure thing" well no ****, but being that high in the draft is as close to a sure thing as you can get. JVR is an outlier and bad example yet he still is proving to be a 30 G, 60 P potential guy at 2nd overall. The 1st overall that year is an above PPG player and clinched the Cup against us.

The top three picks for the last few drafts:

2013 - Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2012 - Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2011 - RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2010 - Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2009 - Tavares, Hedman, Duchene
2008 - Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosion
2007 - P. Kane, JVR, Turris
2006 - Johnson, J. Staal, Toews
2005 - Crosby, Ryan, Johnson
2004 - Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker

There's literally not one non NHL player in that group and the majority of them have become impact players with I'm guessing about half of them being All-Stars by now and even a few generational talents. The recent picks are looking good too even though it's too early for final judgment.

So don't give me that "it's not a sure thing" schpiel. It's practically a sure-fire NHL player and a pretty good chance for more especially relative to the rest of the draft. If it were true that these picks weren't worth getting they wouldn't be handing them out as compensation for the worst teams in the league and they wouldn't yield such a high success rate.

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:21 PM
  #34
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Yeh, top 5 picks are usually a gimme.

For anyone who did not see at the time, I compiled a big list of every player drafted from 90-04 a while back, and the probability of 'all stars' and guys who played 700, 400 and 200 games, then looked at the probabilities by round, and brackets of 5 from picks 1 through to 120 (as after the 4th round it is honestly a complete crapshoot.)

Here are picks 1-5's probabilities:

200 GP: 93.33%, 400 GP: 89.33%, 700 GP: 76%, All-Star: 48%

the drop off in the rest of the first is quite significant, and picks 6-25 are surprisingly similar, though 6-15 and 16-25 go down in levels.

But the difference between pick 6-10 and 20-25 is less than 1-5 and 6-10.

6-10: 200 GP: 70.7%, 400 GP: 57.33%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
16-20: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 45.3%, 700 GP: 25.3%, All-Star: 14.7%
21-25: 200 GP: 60%, 400 GP: 44%, 700 GP: 29.3%, All-Star: 16%
26-30: 200 GP: 45.3%, 400 GP: 34.7%, 700 GP: 20%, All-Star: 10.7%

so around 4/5 of each years top 5 play 700 games in the NHL... half are all star kind of players pretty nice figures/odds of them being a damn good player.

Your 'half' guess was pretty spot on! Can't get any closer to 50% than 48% with a sample of 75 players. (well... 37/75 is 49.333%... but in whole % numbers you can't.)

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:25 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Yeh, top 5 picks are usually a gimme.

For anyone who did not see at the time, I compiled a big list of every player drafted from 90-04 a while back, and the probability of 'all stars' and guys who played 700, 400 and 200 games, then looked at the probabilities by round, and brackets of 5 from picks 1 through to 120 (as after the 4th round it is honestly a complete crapshoot.)

Here are picks 1-5's probabilities:

200 GP: 93.33%, 400 GP: 89.33%, 700 GP: 76%, All-Star: 48%

the drop off in the rest of the first is quite significant, and picks 6-25 are surprisingly similar, though 6-15 and 16-25 go down in levels.

But the difference between pick 6-10 and 20-25 is less than 1-5 and 6-10.

6-10: 200 GP: 70.7%, 400 GP: 57.33%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
16-20: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 45.3%, 700 GP: 25.3%, All-Star: 14.7%
21-25: 200 GP: 60%, 400 GP: 44%, 700 GP: 29.3%, All-Star: 16%
26-30: 200 GP: 45.3%, 400 GP: 34.7%, 700 GP: 20%, All-Star: 10.7%

so around 4/5 of each years top 5 play 700 games in the NHL... half are all star kind of players pretty nice figures/odds of them being a damn good player, also, you're 'half' guess was pretty spot on! Can't get much closer than 48%.
I very much appreciate the stats to back up what I thought. Nice to have.

I'm a good guesser. =P

But, yeah, I find it ridiculously annoying when people label a top three or five pick as "far from a sure thing" to belittle the picks. It's far more of a sure thing then anywhere else in the draft and actually has a pretty good chance of yielding an All-Star worthy player.

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:30 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
I very much appreciate the stats to back up what I thought. Nice to have.

I'm a good guesser. =P

But, yeah, I find it ridiculously annoying when people label a top three or five pick as "far from a sure thing" to belittle the picks. It's far more of a sure thing then anywhere else in the draft and actually has a pretty good chance of yielding an All-Star worthy player.
Yep, there is literally double the chance of them being a true 'star' kind of player than the next 10 picks... picks 1-5 are worth 2 picks in the 6-15 range really.

Here are all the probabilities though all rounds an in brackets for the first 4 if you are interested/have not seen it: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1395481

Probably the NHL stats I have done that I most enjoyed doing.

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:31 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
The second and third place teams in the Metro are only one point above the amount of games played they have. Meaning, at this rate, we could feasibly end the season with 83 points and still make the playoffs which was the original point of discussion.

This playoff system is different from the previous one and usually it wouldn't matter too much but considering how remarkably bad our division is it could actually mess with the playoffs a bit. Since the 04-05 lockout the worst record any team has ever made the playoffs with in terms of points achieved is 88 and that was still the 19th placed team. Most of the time even the worst of the playoff teams still require at least point records in the low 90's.

So 83 is far off from that. In LA's year they still achieved 95 points and were the 13th place team league-wide. The year we made a run at the SCF was probably one of the biggest runs at the Cup from one of the worst teams possible (we were barely a top 20 team that season and made the playoffs via a shootout) and despite pretty much everything working out for us (beating NY in the shootout, coming back from 0-3 against Boston) we still lost in the end.

So, going back to what you originally posted, I'd rather just get the draft pick and build towards the future rather then a fruitless run with an 83 point team. Even in a normal playoff year you can't bank on a 90 or so point team making a run at it and and 83 point team would just be historically bad for a playoff team in the modern era.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we saw a team make the playoffs with the worst record since the beginning of the shootout this year. However, it's a bit disingenuous to say teams with 8 points in 7 games and 9 points in 8 games are on pace to only reach 83 points. They are on pace to reach 93 and 92 points respectively, however, that doesn't account for them playing each other. Furthermore, it's really way too early to extrapolate that far.

Best case scenario, they come back from this week break and get out of this offensive slump. If they can start scoring and keep playing the way they have defensively, they may not finish with much more than 90 points, but I think that they'd still be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

Worst case scenario, they do what they did last year.

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:34 PM
  #38
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Yep, there is literally double the chance of them being a true 'star' kind of player than the next 10 picks... picks 1-5 are worth 2 picks in the 6-15 range really.

Here are all the probabilities though all rounds an in brackets for the first 4 if you are interested/have not seen it: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1395481

Probably the NHL stats I have done that I most enjoyed doing.
Did you ever post it in one of the main boards? I know pretty much any reasonably intelligent person would appreciate those numbers.

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10-19-2013, 09:36 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
Did you ever post it in one of the main boards? I know pretty much any reasonably intelligent person would appreciate those numbers.
No... I forgot to, I was waiting until I finished the one specifically for goaltenders, and then forgot. But I will dig the goaltenders one out tomorrow and post them in numbers tomorrow most probably.

Thanks for the reminder!

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Old
10-19-2013, 09:59 PM
  #40
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I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we saw a team make the playoffs with the worst record since the beginning of the shootout this year. However, it's a bit disingenuous to say teams with 8 points in 7 games and 9 points in 8 games are on pace to only reach 83 points. They are on pace to reach 93 and 92 points respectively, however, that doesn't account for them playing each other. Furthermore, it's really way too early to extrapolate that far.

Best case scenario, they come back from this week break and get out of this offensive slump. If they can start scoring and keep playing the way they have defensively, they may not finish with much more than 90 points, but I think that they'd still be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

Worst case scenario, they do what they did last year.
Admittedly, I messed up the extrapolation there.

Where I stand with this team is like this. They're a great, top team on paper as hard as it is to believe at the moment. Better forward depth, more top six scoring capable players on paper then maybe the whole league as well as a young starting goalie that has been playing terrifically for us. Our D is the weakest point of focus yet they're still a middle of the pack D on paper that's more defensively-oriented then anything and subject to wearing down with Streit and Timonen. Only reasons we're not playing like that team is due to a bunch of coaching shenanigans alongside confidence shenanigans I believe.

Right now our ES goal production, all-around special teams play, and penalty discipline are all piss-poor. Our D isn't doing well but even in ideal circumstances it won't be doing too much better then it is now. In order for me to believe this team is worth making the playoffs in any way is if the offense pulls their heads out of their collective ***** to perform at ES and on the PP, our PK rebounds, and we manage to play moderately disciplined at the least (something this team has been unable to do for many seasons now which is just really annoying). I have confidence that the special teams can rebound, but between last season's ES play and god only knows how many seasons now of piss-poor discipline I doubt the other two will be corrected fully.

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Old
10-19-2013, 10:22 PM
  #41
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Admittedly, I messed up the extrapolation there.

Where I stand with this team is like this. They're a great, top team on paper as hard as it is to believe at the moment. Better forward depth, more top six scoring capable players on paper then maybe the whole league as well as a young starting goalie that has been playing terrifically for us. Our D is the weakest point of focus yet they're still a middle of the pack D on paper that's more defensively-oriented then anything and subject to wearing down with Streit and Timonen. Only reasons we're not playing like that team is due to a bunch of coaching shenanigans alongside confidence shenanigans I believe.

Right now our ES goal production, all-around special teams play, and penalty discipline are all piss-poor. Our D isn't doing well but even in ideal circumstances it won't be doing too much better then it is now. In order for me to believe this team is worth making the playoffs in any way is if the offense pulls their heads out of their collective ***** to perform at ES and on the PP, our PK rebounds, and we manage to play moderately disciplined at the least (something this team has been unable to do for many seasons now which is just really annoying). I have confidence that the special teams can rebound, but between last season's ES play and god only knows how many seasons now of piss-poor discipline I doubt the other two will be corrected fully.
Yeah, I can't disagree with any of that.

All of this talk about top 5 picks though is way premature at this point. I think this team has a better shot of making the playoffs than they do of picking top 5, unless they suffer massive amounts of injuries.

I think the most likely case scenario is they finish right around where they finished last year, unfortunately.

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10-19-2013, 10:31 PM
  #42
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Timonen for 1st
Coburn for 1st
Grossmann + 2nd for 1st
Hartnell for 1st
Simmonds for 1st + prospect

Make it happen, Homer.


If there is one thing homer can do is load up after a rebuild.

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10-19-2013, 11:37 PM
  #43
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Stop hoping for a damn turn around lol lets get our "hopefully much needed #1 damn ekblad im tired of just being good enough to make the payoffs tank 2-3 years develope this god awful prospect pool.....i know everyone names a few good prospects but we need more and better ones our best prospect as a third line center is bad!

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10-19-2013, 11:49 PM
  #44
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As much as I love the drafts year in and year out... it PAINS me that all we to look forward to is that, at the moment. Hopefully that changes.

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10-20-2013, 09:12 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post

So don't give me that "it's not a sure thing" schpiel. It's practically a sure-fire NHL player and a pretty good chance for more especially relative to the rest of the draft. If it were true that these picks weren't worth getting they wouldn't be handing them out as compensation for the worst teams in the league and they wouldn't yield such a high success rate.
I see where you are coming from. More so I mean a high draft pick is not a sure thing to lead to cup victories or deep playoff runs. I think getting a chance in the playoffs +15-20 draft pick is about the same chance as a top 3 pick. Yes if you have enough losing years you can build a sick team of three or four top picks but personally I would not want to go through that and I'd take my chances at a first round likely exit and multiple years of 16-20 any year. The flyers are not a poor team, they don't need much.

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10-20-2013, 09:26 AM
  #46
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Damn, I wasn't that pessimistic until I saw this post. Gonna be a long season.

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10-20-2013, 09:40 AM
  #47
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I'd rather make the playoffs than draft top 5. If this roster can't put ssome success together, then we have much bigger problems that one pick won't solve.

It would be better to find out that the players we have don't suck

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10-20-2013, 09:45 AM
  #48
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Damn, I wasn't that pessimistic until I saw this post. Gonna be a long season.
I'm in denial. It's the second stage of my panic marathon.

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Old
10-20-2013, 09:59 AM
  #49
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Timonen for 1st
Coburn for 1st
Grossmann + 2nd for 1st
Hartnell for 1st
Simmonds for 1st + prospect

Make it happen, Homer.
If you think you are getting 1sts for most of those players you are crazy

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10-20-2013, 10:06 AM
  #50
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If you think you are getting 1sts for most of those players you are crazy
Teams are desperate at the deadline. If those players are available, I could see getting firsts for most, if not all of those players. They won't be high first rounders, because it will be teams looking for that final piece to the Stanley Cup puzzle, but you better believe teams would be interested in going after these players.

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