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Round 1, Pick #11: Samuel Morin, Defense, Rimouski (QMJHL)

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Old
10-20-2013, 01:42 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
The only three 1st rounders I can think of in recent memory that the Flyers drafted that didn't go anywhere at all in the NHL and became busts were Sittler (injuries), Bowen and Ouellet. This is in the past 20+ years too. They have a pretty high rate of good players from the 1st round that become somebodies.
Jeff Woywitka

EDIT: didnt realize he has played more then 200 NHL games.

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10-20-2013, 02:24 PM
  #677
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I think our success in the first round is pretty solid. You can have an argument either way over a couple guys, but we don't "miss" too often and draft any duds. The area that I would like to see improved is from round three and on. If you look back over the last ten years of drafts, there are some pretty good players who snuck past our scouts in the later rounds, guys who have had impact careers.

Imagine if we had wasted our 2004 8th round pick on some lanky Finnish goalie who went to Nashville instead of a dman named Travis Gawryletz

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10-20-2013, 03:35 PM
  #678
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Originally Posted by RonHextall27 View Post
I think our success in the first round is pretty solid. You can have an argument either way over a couple guys, but we don't "miss" too often and draft any duds. The area that I would like to see improved is from round three and on. If you look back over the last ten years of drafts, there are some pretty good players who snuck past our scouts in the later rounds, guys who have had impact careers.

Imagine if we had wasted our 2004 8th round pick on some lanky Finnish goalie who went to Nashville instead of a dman named Travis Gawryletz
Well that isn't going to happen when the team picks someone like Goule in the 3rd round all while there are talented, offensive players available...wanted Bjorkstrand bad at that pick. Then our pick comes and I am left saying...who???

Hard to get "steals" in later rounds when your team picks plugs instead

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10-20-2013, 03:51 PM
  #679
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I really like Oli Maatta and I'll be honest, I think he has top pairing potential. Do I think the Flyers made a mistake taking Laughton over Maatta? Nope. Laughton has captain material written all over him and his upside is that of Patrice Bergeron. Maatta's upside is that of a guy like ME Vlasic. The question for all is - would you take Bergeron over Vlasic? Ask any GM and I'm pretty sure they take Bergeron over Vlasic and it wouldn't be close either.

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10-20-2013, 04:32 PM
  #680
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I really like Oli Maatta and I'll be honest, I think he has top pairing potential. Do I think the Flyers made a mistake taking Laughton over Maatta? Nope. Laughton has captain material written all over him and his upside is that of Patrice Bergeron. Maatta's upside is that of a guy like ME Vlasic. The question for all is - would you take Bergeron over Vlasic? Ask any GM and I'm pretty sure they take Bergeron over Vlasic and it wouldn't be close either.
I think those comparisons are really not close. You can use them to prove your point I guess, but at the end of the day, we won't be able to evaluate this for a decade or so.

I like Laughton a ton. I like Maata a ton. Between the 2 of them? It's very, very close. All I'm saying is that given our needs at the time of that draft, Laughton has got to be something special if Maata pans out to make it the right selection.

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10-20-2013, 05:08 PM
  #681
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Originally Posted by RonHextall27 View Post
I think our success in the first round is pretty solid. You can have an argument either way over a couple guys, but we don't "miss" too often and draft any duds. The area that I would like to see improved is from round three and on. If you look back over the last ten years of drafts, there are some pretty good players who snuck past our scouts in the later rounds, guys who have had impact careers.

Imagine if we had wasted our 2004 8th round pick on some lanky Finnish goalie who went to Nashville instead of a dman named Travis Gawryletz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
Well that isn't going to happen when the team picks someone like Goule in the 3rd round all while there are talented, offensive players available...wanted Bjorkstrand bad at that pick. Then our pick comes and I am left saying...who???

Hard to get "steals" in later rounds when your team picks plugs instead
Sorry for taking this and running more off topic! But...

The problem is that the chance of players making the grade from the 3rd onwards is pretty low, so when people see a Datyuk, Zetterberg, Byfuglien, Lundqvist, Rinne or Miller they think 'why has my team not guy a guy like that!' it is understandable, especially as how good those guys are now you would think more people would have recognised their talent.

I also dislike drafting 'goons' in the later rounds... but the Flyers are pretty good in the late rounds frankly.

Whole NHL:

(player with) 200 GP: (drafts 1990-04)

3rd: 22%
4th: 13.8%
5th-7th: 10.4%

So each years draft, in rounds 3,4,5,6 and 7 (6.6, 4.14, 3.12, 3.12, 3.12 players per round per year) there are around 20 players who play 200 games, out of 150 drafted in that range. So with 30 teams and 20 of those players to go around...

When you look at 700 GP:

3rd: 7.33%
4th: 4.2%
5th-7th: 3.5%

So each year in those rounds (2.2, 1.26, 1.05, 1.05, 1.05 players per round per year) there are 6-7 players who play 700 games in the NHL, out of the 150 drafted in that range. So with 30 teams and 6-7 of those player to go around...

So really each team to break 'par' should draft:

2 200 game players after round 2 every 3 years
1 700 game player in those rounds every 5 years.

Flyers 1990-2005: (par 10 200 game players, 3 700 games players)

200 GP: Lomakin, Selivanov, Forbes, Hedberg, Fedoruk, Niittymaki, Cechmanek, Fraser, Picard, Thieren, Yuskevich, Prospal, Sharp, Seidenberg

700 GP: Thieren, Yuskevich, Prospal, Sharp (he will), Seidenberg

So the Flyers drafted 14 players over 200 games (10.05 average) 39% better than average.

And 5 players over 700 games (3.205 average) 56% better than average.

So from 90-05 the Flyers were actually pretty brilliant at late round drafting...

The problem seemingly is we traded most of them before they became the players they did! (especially the best few!)

Best three:

Prospal: Traded for Alex Daigle (traded for Kovalenko)

Sharp: Traded for Matt Elison (traded for 'future considerations') and a 3rd (later traded for 109 and 79, Matsumoto (traded for a 7th (Blindtrand)) and Kovar (who I think is still ours)

Seidenberg: Traded for Petr Nedved (waived 9 months later)

So the Flyers turned their best three late round draft picks in a 15 year period into: Kovalenko, Blindstrand, Nedved (for 9 months), Kovar and some 'futures'. 3 of them were let go for nothing.

That is why they look like a rubbish late round team, not because they are... but because of Bobby Clarke and his crazy trades of young players.


Last edited by Appleyard: 10-20-2013 at 05:24 PM.
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10-20-2013, 05:18 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
Its a bit early to assert that they should have taken Brodin over Couturier, and its definitely premature to suggest that Maatta was the better pick over Laughton.
I, for one sure am glad Holmgrem fudged up and picked Couturier

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10-20-2013, 05:29 PM
  #683
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I, for one sure am glad Holmgrem fudged up and picked Couturier
Way too early to be saying that. You may be eating your words in 3-4 years.

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10-20-2013, 06:22 PM
  #684
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Way too early to be saying that. You may be eating your words in 3-4 years.
If they were going D I bet they would have taken Hamilton anyways.

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10-20-2013, 08:04 PM
  #685
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Originally Posted by mkoivu9 View Post
If they were going D I bet they would have taken Hamilton anyways.
I remember the talk at the time being they were real high on Siemens, higher than Brodin and possibly even Hamilton. Who knows if they would have taken him there had Couturier not dropped, but the Flyers certainly aren't afraid to against the general consensus if they've got a guy higher on their draft board.

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10-20-2013, 08:28 PM
  #686
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Originally Posted by mkoivu9 View Post
If they were going D I bet they would have taken Hamilton anyways.
I believe that it was Siemens who said that the Flyers had told him they planned on picking him. I can't figure out where else it would have come from, but i think most reports have suggested that he was their guy if the Jets had taken Couturier.

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10-20-2013, 09:06 PM
  #687
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I really like Oli Maatta and I'll be honest, I think he has top pairing potential. Do I think the Flyers made a mistake taking Laughton over Maatta? Nope. Laughton has captain material written all over him and his upside is that of Patrice Bergeron. Maatta's upside is that of a guy like ME Vlasic. The question for all is - would you take Bergeron over Vlasic? Ask any GM and I'm pretty sure they take Bergeron over Vlasic and it wouldn't be close either.
I remember wanting them to pick Maatta (it is in my draft board spreadsheet, actually). The board flipped out for a few minutes, then once enough reading and reviewing was done on Laughton, everyone was okay with it.

I'm easy though-- just say Mike Richards enough to me and I'm already being swayed. Not sure that is the best comparison any longer- the sheer notion of it went a long way with this fan base, especially after how upsetting it was when he was traded. It was cathartic to know another Richards "was in the works."

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10-20-2013, 10:28 PM
  #688
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Jeff Woywitka

EDIT: didnt realize he has played more then 200 NHL games.
He really snuck his way up there, I didn't realize that either. Speaking of sneakily racking up games, undrafted Jim Vandermeer has over 430 NHL games.

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10-20-2013, 10:54 PM
  #689
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I remember wanting them to pick Maatta (it is in my draft board spreadsheet, actually). The board flipped out for a few minutes, then once enough reading and reviewing was done on Laughton, everyone was okay with it
That's what happened this year with the Morin pick. Everyone *****ed and moaned before and during the draft about him, but once he but that jersey on everyone's tune changed.

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10-20-2013, 10:55 PM
  #690
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He really snuck his way up there, I didn't realize that either. Speaking of sneakily racking up games, undrafted Jim Vandermeer has over 430 NHL games.
Colin Forbes and Alex Picard surprised me today when i saw how many games they had played... very sneaky.

Forbes: 311 over 10 years.
Picard: 253 over 8 years on 6 teams.

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10-21-2013, 06:01 AM
  #691
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That's what happened this year with the Morin pick. Everyone *****ed and moaned before and during the draft about him, but once he but that jersey on everyone's tune changed.
I'll admit - I was one of them. I really wanted the team to draft Josh Morrissey, especially after his outstanding season in the WHL and his play at the Ivan Hlinka tournament (of note, Sam Morin was his defense partner). My own thoughts were that Morrissey was a more refined player and had the offensive upside this club needed. With that being said, I have no problems saying I'm glad the Flyers took big Sam.

His play at the rookie tournament and in the pre season really opened my eyes with what he's capable of bringing to the table. And when you consider that the East has players like Tom Wilson, Milan Lucic, and a host of other big forwards, it certainly doesn't hurt to have a 6'7 defender back there with a mean disposition who can handle those guys.

I still think Morrissey is probably going to be the best offensive defenseman of that draft, but Morin might end being the most complete defenseman of that draft.

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10-21-2013, 08:43 AM
  #692
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Morin from all accounts had all the tools to be a premier #1, but the big ? is whether he will put them all together. Its unlikely, but the nice thing is the early signs are is that he is progressing faster than expected in some areas. Still have to be patient though.

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10-21-2013, 08:49 AM
  #693
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
That's what happened this year with the Morin pick. Everyone *****ed and moaned before and during the draft about him, but once he but that jersey on everyone's tune changed.
To quote Slim from A Bug's Life, "Well, that's an overgeneralization!" I was pretty upset that the Flyers took Morin, which was more about the names I really wanted (Nurse, Ristolainen) already gone, but I still am not enamoured with his potential. It's more a question of "It is what it is" and hoping I'm dead wrong and that things turn out than coming around to embrace the pick.

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10-21-2013, 12:00 PM
  #694
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I won't say I was disappointed with a pick, because all the other guys I wanted were taken ahead of our position anyway (nurse, risto, Nichushkin etc.) but I was definitely surprised that they picked him that early. I knew they had interest in morin but I thought maybe they would have traded up from their 2nd to grab him later in the 1st... Evidently they had reason to believe that he'd be off the board so they went with him at 11. I think morin is proving his work ethic though now and showing that he's going to get better. We knew he was raw when they picked him and obviously they saw something in him that led them to believe that he had the ability to develop well. If I trust this organization with anything, it's picking in the 1st round.

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10-21-2013, 12:28 PM
  #695
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I'll admit - I was one of them. I really wanted the team to draft Josh Morrissey, especially after his outstanding season in the WHL and his play at the Ivan Hlinka tournament (of note, Sam Morin was his defense partner). My own thoughts were that Morrissey was a more refined player and had the offensive upside this club needed. With that being said, I have no problems saying I'm glad the Flyers took big Sam.

His play at the rookie tournament and in the pre season really opened my eyes with what he's capable of bringing to the table. And when you consider that the East has players like Tom Wilson, Milan Lucic, and a host of other big forwards, it certainly doesn't hurt to have a 6'7 defender back there with a mean disposition who can handle those guys.

I still think Morrissey is probably going to be the best offensive defenseman of that draft, but Morin might end being the most complete defenseman of that draft.


I agree with you 100%

You and I kind of went back and forth somewhat about who the Flyers would pick, Morin vs Morrissey. I must admit I did not really know anything about Morin until late January. But the kid just shot up the board and made me a believer. I did like Morrissey and Rychel, but Morin seems to have "it". I think he will be a really good pro who will help this team in the future. Big forwards will not like playing against him. I am not saying he is the second coming of Chris Pronger, but he will be a fan favorite. Going by that show the Flyers put out, they were hot on Muellar and Monahan(who I think they pick if they had not gone on that late season run).

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10-21-2013, 12:33 PM
  #696
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If he can fall somewhere between Hatcher & Pronger, I'll be happy. Hatcher in his prime was a shut down d-man who scored 30 pts, Pronger in his prime was a shut down d-man who scored 60 pts.

If Morin becomes a shut down d-man who scores 45 pts, I'll be happy as hell.

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10-21-2013, 02:12 PM
  #697
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If he can fall somewhere between Hatcher & Pronger, I'll be happy. Hatcher in his prime was a shut down d-man who scored 30 pts, Pronger in his prime was a shut down d-man who scored 60 pts.

If Morin becomes a shut down d-man who scores 45 pts, I'll be happy as hell.
Glad we're keeping our expectations realistic lol.

Morin and Laughton look great and I'll concede that they are showing more promise than I expected at the time of their selections, but before we start slobbing over their Hall of Fame careers, I think it would be prudent to see them play at a professional level and be moderately successful before burdening them with the expectations of being the next Mike Richards or Chris Pronger or Hatcher or ____.

The quality of the selections isn't measured by stats in Juniors. I'm definitely excited, but way, way too early to define the picks as successful or not.

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10-21-2013, 02:13 PM
  #698
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I just said I'll be happy there. I have no expectations, I don't know anything about him, except that he seems to be improving and developing so far.

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10-21-2013, 02:24 PM
  #699
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I just said I'll be happy there. I have no expectations, I don't know anything about him, except that he seems to be improving and developing so far.
So you wouldn't be happy unless Morin falls between a guy in the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame or one of the greatest defensemen of all time? You are setting yourself up for disappointment if that's the only way you'll be happy about the selection.

If Morin develops into a top 4 defenseman for 10 years, that's a very good selection at 11th overall. Anything more than that is gravy imo.

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10-21-2013, 02:32 PM
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So you wouldn't be happy unless Morin falls between a guy in the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame or one of the greatest defensemen of all time? You are setting yourself up for disappointment if that's the only way you'll be happy about the selection.

If Morin develops into a top 4 defenseman for 10 years, that's a very good selection at 11th overall. Anything more than that is gravy imo.
Why can't I be happy where I want to be happy?

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