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Old
12-09-2006, 12:47 PM
  #1
Lord Horse
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No Trades Likely

Since the "Trade Winds" thread has devolved into the same old, I'm starting a new one to propose the opposite opinion entirely. And not a Mathias Brunet-style difference either.

I don't see the Habs making any kind of blockbuster deals whatsoever. In fact, the "big" trade was already made this year when we shipped Ribiero to Dallas.

[notice he was pretty invisible vs. the Oilers last night, even with all their starters gone? ]

Anyway, *that* was *it*, friends. Move a defenseman ? Hell no. We have enough depth for a long playoff should we earn it. UFAs or not, forget it. We need ALL those guys, Niinima included. Having Mark Streit is a cherry on top. We're gonna see guys like O'byrne and Cote follow the trend and develop in the A. And that's a very good thing for us.

Move a goalie? HELL NO! Huet is awesome, but Mon Bob and others figured it out by the end of last year (and no, it didn't McGuire's "book"): he can only play 3 games in a row, maximum. Any more and he's not at the top of his game. It was true already then, it's definitely true this year too. Not to knock him; he's gold, but he needs a quality backup to spell him off. 60 games MAX for Cristobal.

So follow that logic and you see we absolutely REQUIRE two goaltenders for a successful playoff = any hope at the Cup! And a smart GM knows you should have TWO veterans going into the dance. Sure, there *have been* exceptions, but see Senators, Ottawa & Oilers, Edmonton for examples and that's just from last year.

[though Jussi wasn't that bad...]

Either way, Huet is not going to win all 16 playoff games for us, point finale.

But...but... what about Samsonov? Kovalief? Garth Murray maybe?

No, no and no.

There is no more patient GM in the league than Bob Gainey. He will NOT trade a player who's playing poorly or looks like he's hurting the team, unless it happens to be a throw-in. But we aren't shopping anything that anyone really wants, and if we do make any more trades among the forwards BG will be hosing someone huge.

Top line guys? Untradeable, incl. Higgins. If you saw the game vs. the Isles you know why Ryder is not going anywhere. Coulda had around 5 goals in that game and sooner or later he'll do it, too.

Samsonov? He'll get better. Or *maybe* not, but he ain't being moved until BG is sure and that will be into next year.

Kovalev? Yeah, he's such a.... oh wait, he's got a Stanley Cup and transforms into a real player during the playoffs.

Plekanec is a good 4th line centre & will be expected to fill in for Bonk should he leave as a FA in the summer.

Bonk/Johnson/Perezhogin - no-brainer, no trades.

Begin? No trade.
Murray? Demotion maybe, but he's a keeper in the playoffs once the s*it hits the fan.
Downey? Likely stays, he's a fighter and we *still* need one in reserve.

Habs have a lot of talent waiting to bust out just as we have for the last 2-3 years. Expect the same next year with 1 or *possibly* 2 roster spots open for your Lapierres and your Kostitsyns, but don't expect them to be full-timers this year. Those of you who want to see a fouth line of

Kost - Grabovski - Lapierre etc. etc.

are dreaming about Sega Hockey (video hockey of all kinds) and not real-life NHL games played by actual human people. Certainly not playoff hockey anyhow.

Our roster strategy can finally be integrated: young players are allowed to develop until ready, and current players are kept until the time they are beaten out of spots. On teams that don't suck, that's how it works. We're not that used to seeing it because we had some disasterous drafting in the last 15 years.

Bottom line: expect us to grow organically from within, and don't waste your time looking to cherry-pick off other rosters. Gainey will wait and see, and trust his own decisions. It worked with Bonk/Huet, it will eventually pay off with Samsonov too.

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Old
12-09-2006, 01:50 PM
  #2
!nkubus
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Excellent post .

The only "trade" I can see happening is to get rid of Niinima salary, we are doing great , watch out when Higgins comes back

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:00 PM
  #3
JeromeHP
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Mtl is shopping for a second line center bottom line! Probably be a rent player like kovalev was in 2004

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:01 PM
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VGTvidz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by !nkubus View Post
Excellent post .

The only "trade" I can see happening is to get rid of Niinima salary, we are doing great , watch out when Higgins comes back
If he keeps his game to the level he shown during the last 2 games, it will be easier to trade him

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:04 PM
  #5
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Good and well thought-out post!
I also think it is the most likely scenario. Not so certain about Abby and/or Niinima... I have the feeling they'll find their way out of Mtl.

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:15 PM
  #6
Dan K
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Abby can not and will not be traded unless one of two things happen:

1) We receive a huge overpayment for him from a desperate team. Pretty unlikely, for the time being anyway.

2) We trade him and in the deal receive a reliable back-up in return. This means we get very very little value for Aebischer and it is kinda pointless.

Danis is only now starting to find his game, while Halak is playing amazingly but is not NHL-ready. You need another goaltender aside from Huet for the long haul. We don't have one.

IMO the realistic names to be moved are Ryder, Rivet, Kovalev, and Samsonov. Others are either important for our future (Plekanec, Komisarek, prospects...), or have no value (Niinimaa, Murray...).

Anyway I'm sure Gainey is in no hurry to make a trade.

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:22 PM
  #7
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Nice post. I agree. As long as this team keeps picking up points, no sense in trading, even if we do have weaknesses.

I doubt we'll see our defense fixed this year.

I can see us pick up a scorer at the deadline if Samsonov does not wake up.

Otherwise, this is the team they want to go two rounds and out with....


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Old
12-09-2006, 02:34 PM
  #8
Dragon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #11 Saku Koivu View Post
Abby can not and will not be traded unless one of two things happen:

1) We receive a huge overpayment for him from a desperate team. Pretty unlikely, for the time being anyway.

2) We trade him and in the deal receive a reliable back-up in return. This means we get very very little value for Aebischer and it is kinda pointless.
You reminded me a trade we did sometime ago.. Garon for Huet!

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:42 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragon View Post
You reminded me a trade we did sometime ago.. Garon for Huet!
BONK and Huet

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:53 PM
  #10
Dan K
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragon View Post
You reminded me a trade we did sometime ago.. Garon for Huet!
It's quite a bit different, though, when you're trying to trade a young, rising goaltender who wants a chance to prove himself, and looking to acquire a center, than when you're trading an established 1B-at-best type goalie who will be a UFA in the upcoming offseason.

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Old
12-09-2006, 02:53 PM
  #11
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It's a bit of a problem that the deadline is so early this year because there aren't going to be that many teams that are definitely out of it and looking to dump players. By the deadline, I predict that at least 12 teams in the EC will be legitimate playoff contenders with lots of games left to play. Just look at Washington, Pittsburgh and NYI, for instance. Right now, only Philly and Florida are really on the outside, and both could still get back in it with a big winning streak.

Anyway, I agree with the premise of no major trades involving roster players (except maybe Samsonov if things continue in their pear-shaped way), but I still expect a veteran rental type of acquisition, though hopefully one a little more impactful than Todd Simpson.

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Old
12-09-2006, 03:18 PM
  #12
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Barring several injuries, I don't see any moves at all. I agree that Niinimaa will probably stay and I think Samsonov will too. I liked how Niinimaa played with Komisarek...

I could see them perhaps picking up another fringe defenseman on waivers for Hamilton if the right opportunity arises. From the little I've seen, the Dog's defense could use some firming up.

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Old
12-09-2006, 04:14 PM
  #13
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As much as we've all read the Morrison style deals and rumours, I can't see much of value being dealt. I suppose we could see Samsonov for someone else's problem. You never know, sometimes someone on the staff has history with a player and think he'd work out for them.

Most probably, if a team like Florida fades and the 2nd line remains an issue, Stumpel, or a similar player.

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Old
12-09-2006, 04:24 PM
  #14
tinyzombies
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Originally Posted by mcphee View Post
As much as we've all read the Morrison style deals and rumours, I can't see much of value being dealt. I suppose we could see Samsonov for someone else's problem. You never know, sometimes someone on the staff has history with a player and think he'd work out for them.

Most probably, if a team like Florida fades and the 2nd line remains an issue, Stumpel, or a similar player.
Can you picture Josef Stumpel lifting the Cup?

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Old
12-09-2006, 04:31 PM
  #15
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I believe there will be trades

but well... time will tell

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12-09-2006, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by !nkubus View Post
Excellent post .

The only "trade" I can see happening is to get rid of Niinima salary, we are doing great , watch out when Higgins comes back
Why get rid of salary unless he's clearing room for someone else? No trades will be made to free up salary from an impending UFA.

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:06 PM
  #17
Blind Gardien
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From what we can see now, I think it has been blindingly obvious that there are no moves coming for the Habs. It has been all season. (But the trade rumour mill has no basis in reality to begin with, so ignoring the obvious is a hurdle that is quite easily overcome for the mongers).

That said, things change. Time passes. There might only be 4 or 5 "sellers" at the deadline, and I don't see the Habs as likely candidates to really be a top bidder in the "buyer" category. Although as Bob Gainey has amply demonstrated in his tenure thus far, he will be ready and willing to be a "buyer" either at the upper or lower end if the price turns out to be right. There are too many variables at this point to say what price would be right. Key injuries could play a role in that.

But generally speaking, if all proceeds pretty much as it has so far, I'd say bwoar is bang on, we're probably the least likely team in the entire league to make a deal this season.

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:27 PM
  #18
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Hockey central seem to be spreading rmors about souray now. Detroit and they show chelios's face

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:29 PM
  #19
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Hockey central seem to be spreading rmors about souray now. Detroit and they show chelios's face
Yep, sounds like a MTL-DET rumour.

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:45 PM
  #20
tinyzombies
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There will be moves. This team has problems.

I bet we pick up a scorer at the deadline.

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:54 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by raketheleaves View Post
Can you picture Josef Stumpel lifting the Cup?
I'd never confuse him with Beliveau, or even Muller for that matter, but he wouldn't be expected to lead, but to compliment. At the deadline, sure you can always make a big splash if you think you're a player away.

Look at the league right now, Buffalo, Anaheim, SJ close behind, who else has shown that they;re above anyone else. If you have to give away a top tier prospect, or a 1st, you'd better have a clear need and a solid chance.

Maybe it's not getting a scorer, but getting scorers to score.

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Old
12-09-2006, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Raider917 View Post
Hockey central seem to be spreading rmors about souray now. Detroit and they show chelios's face
Why would we move Souray right now? He is our 2nd best D-Man and the players we would want in return as part of some sort of multiple player deal (Datsyuk or Zetterberg) have both struggled this season.

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Old
12-10-2006, 11:50 AM
  #23
Lord Horse
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Originally Posted by raketheleaves View Post
There will be moves. This team has problems.

I bet we pick up a scorer at the deadline.
I don't entirely disagree with that sentiment. It's not necessarily a fact though. There are at best 2-3 teams in the whole circuit who don't have problems. Every team has holes, or nagging depth problems, or players who just aren't *fitting* into whatever role they were expected to play.

In a perfect world, every team would go out at the trade dealine, swap 'em around and those 27-28 teams would all have some form of improvement. But in reality that's just not possible.

M. Gainey is not the only canny GM in the league, there are others who know this too: They look at their rosters and make a wishlist, but without guys like Santa Milbury to bring them presents, they have to risk potentially getting worse in order to hopefully find a fit that helps them. Given the cap constraints most teams have and the early deadline they have to make these decisions under, a GM with a stable farm system and 1 or 2 underachievers on the big club is far better off to wait it out and let the younger guys earn their roster spots then panic and trade away guys on the big club who *are* producing.

Is that gonna fix our second line ? No way it is this year, not bloody likely anyhow. But neither would trading Souray, or Aeibicher, or having to offer up fine youngsters like Perezhogin. Seriously, who's gonna trade away a young player AND still have to move salary to rent a Pavel Datsyuk-type "star"..... hoping that's enough to put us on the next level ???

If you're out there going "hell yeah I'd do that in a heartbeat", you may just be the next Santa Mike !

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