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How many points will it take to make the playoffs - 2013-14 edition

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Old
10-22-2013, 12:33 PM
  #26
HansH
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After games of 10/21/13:

The target has fallen again, to 91 points, a record of 39-32-1 in the remaining 72 games (percentage of .549).

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Old
10-25-2013, 12:17 AM
  #27
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After games of 10/24/13:

The target is 98 points, or a record of 42-29 (a percentage of .592).

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10-25-2013, 02:05 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 10/24/13:

The target is 98 points, or a record of 42-29 (a percentage of .592).
While mathematically it is harder to make playoffs in the east, there are 7 teams below 7 teams below 10 points in the east versus just 2 teams in the west. The west is just so much stronger, which should hold until the NHL expands to even the conferences.

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Old
10-30-2013, 07:44 PM
  #29
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After the games of 10/29/13:

The target is (prior to tonight's games) 96 points, or a record of 40-29 (a percentage of .580 - current percentage is .615).

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Old
10-31-2013, 07:44 AM
  #30
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After games of 10/30/13:

Target remains 96 points, record needed is 39-29 (.574)

And a curious note -- in the West, there are two teams above .500 who are projected to not make the playoffs (Minnesota and Nashville). In the East, not only are there none of those, but there are two teams BELOW .500 who not only are slated to make the playoffs, but get two of the three automatic berths from the Metropolitan division and play each other in the first round (Carolina and the NY Islanders).

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Old
10-31-2013, 10:00 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 10/30/13:

Target remains 96 points, record needed is 39-29 (.574)

And a curious note -- in the West, there are two teams above .500 who are projected to not make the playoffs (Minnesota and Nashville). In the East, not only are there none of those, but there are two teams BELOW .500 who not only are slated to make the playoffs, but get two of the three automatic berths from the Metropolitan division and play each other in the first round (Carolina and the NY Islanders).
And there were Eastern fans crying out that the extra teams in their conference made making the playoffs harder....

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Old
11-01-2013, 05:15 PM
  #32
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Still 96 points after the Halloween games. Today's factoid: If the playoff seedings were determined by the current standings, the Kings would face the Sharks in the first round. (Other matchups in the West would be Phoenix at Anaheim, Chicago at St. Louis, and Vancouver at Colorado).

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11-09-2013, 11:43 AM
  #33
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After games of 11/8/13:

Since the Kings are outside looking in, they'll need to get one more point than the projected 2nd wild-card team to get in. Right now, Minnesota is in that slot with a projected finish of 106 points, making the target for the Kings 107 points.

That would require a record of 40-19-7, or a percentage of .659 (the Kings' current percentage is .625).

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Old
11-09-2013, 01:05 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 11/8/13:

Since the Kings are outside looking in, they'll need to get one more point than the projected 2nd wild-card team to get in. Right now, Minnesota is in that slot with a projected finish of 106 points, making the target for the Kings 107 points.

That would require a record of 40-19-7, or a percentage of .659 (the Kings' current percentage is .625).
Wow that is insane, 50 wins just to grab 8th

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11-09-2013, 02:27 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guderian View Post
Wow that is insane, 50 wins just to grab 8th
Oh, eventually the top teams will start beating up on each other and the regression to the mean will take place. I anticipate somewhere in the low-mid 90s will end up being the final number for 8th.

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Old
11-10-2013, 11:46 PM
  #36
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After games of 11/10/13:

The Kings are projected back into the second wildcard spot. To keep this, they would now target 99 points. This requires a record of 35-23-7, or a percentage of .592.

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11-16-2013, 12:28 PM
  #37
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After the games of 11/15/13:

Kings still sit in the 2nd wild-card spot, and project to maintain that by finishing with 99 points or more.

That translates to a record of 33-23-6, or a percentage of .581 for the rest of the season (compared to their current percentage of.675).

The crazy thing is... to move up to first wild-card (playing the lower division winner in the first round), the Kings are currently projected to need 116 points to overtake Minnesota. To move up into the 3rd automatic Pacific slot, they are projected to need 119 to 120... to win the Pacific, they're projected to need 128 points... to win the Conference, they're projected to need... 131 points.

Let's make this clear.

Minnesota has a percentage of .700. That's insane -- and STILL not good enough to put them into the top three in the Central, and only good enough for SEVENTH in the conference.

These numbers will almost UNDOUBTEDLY eventually come down as the season wears on and the top teams start playing each other more and we get the regression to the mean... but at this moment, that's kind of unbelievable.

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11-16-2013, 02:57 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After the games of 11/15/13:

Kings still sit in the 2nd wild-card spot, and project to maintain that by finishing with 99 points or more.

That translates to a record of 33-23-6, or a percentage of .581 for the rest of the season (compared to their current percentage of.675).

The crazy thing is... to move up to first wild-card (playing the lower division winner in the first round), the Kings are currently projected to need 116 points to overtake Minnesota. To move up into the 3rd automatic Pacific slot, they are projected to need 119 to 120... to win the Pacific, they're projected to need 128 points... to win the Conference, they're projected to need... 131 points.

Let's make this clear.

Minnesota has a percentage of .700. That's insane -- and STILL not good enough to put them into the top three in the Central, and only good enough for SEVENTH in the conference.

These numbers will almost UNDOUBTEDLY eventually come down as the season wears on and the top teams start playing each other more and we get the regression to the mean... but at this moment, that's kind of unbelievable.
Yes but with only one more point we would be tied with Minnesota. That's the difference between us. So us not having given up that goal with 30 seconds left to Calgary we would be at that same .700 as them.

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Old
11-17-2013, 10:08 PM
  #39
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After games of 11/17/13:

Still 99 points. Still projected into 2nd wild-card spot.

The record needed is 32-23-6 - a percentage of .574 (compared to the Kings' current percentage of .690).

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Old
11-20-2013, 08:53 AM
  #40
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After games of 11/19/13:

The Kings have moved up again into the first wild-card spot - but because the Sharks and Coyotes both have a game in hand, they remain in the #2 and #3 spots for the Pacific (though the Kings _do_ have one more ROW than the Coyotes).

The target remains 99 points.

(Translation - record of 31-23-6, percentage of .567 compared to current percentage of .705)

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Old
11-22-2013, 08:33 AM
  #41
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After games of 11/21/13:

Finally some movement. Dallas's loss has lowered the target to 95 points for the 2nd wild-card spot - and the Kings are now actually projected to take the #3 spot in the Pacific, edging out Anaheim by one point.

The record needed to achieve 95 points is now 29-25-5, a percentage of .534.

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Old
11-24-2013, 11:44 AM
  #42
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After games of 11/23/13:

The target has fallen again, this time to 93 points - a record of 30-28 (or more likely 27-25-6) is needed, for a percentage of .517.

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Old
11-26-2013, 01:49 PM
  #43
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After games of 11/25/13:

The Kings helped their cause doubly with the comeback win last night, as the Canucks are the team currently projected in 9th place. The target has now fallen yet again, to 92 points.

That translates to a record needed of 26-26-5, or a percentage of .500 from here out.

More projections:
110 points (35-17-5, percentage of .658) needed to lock down the #3 spot and avoid cross-bracketing.
118 points (39-13-5, percentage of .728) needed to get home ice in the first round.
126 points (43-9-5, percentage of .798) needed to win the Pacific.
133 points (47-6-4, percentage of .860) needed to win the West (and the President's Trophy).

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Old
11-26-2013, 04:58 PM
  #44
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Thanks again Hans!

Crazy that the target keeps falling, but makes sense as the West is going to start beating the **** out of itself soon.

133 points sounds soooo damn high

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Old
11-28-2013, 10:22 PM
  #45
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After games of 11/28/13 (Happy Thanksgiving, US people!):

The Canucks stabilized with their win today, bringing the target back up to 95 points.

That puts the remaining record needed at 27-24-5 (a percentage of .527).

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11-30-2013, 12:19 AM
  #46
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If the playoff seedings were set today:

Minnesota (2WC) at San Jose (1P)
Phoenix (1WC) at St. Louis (1C)
Los Angeles (3P) at Anaheim (2P)
Colorado (3C) at Chicago (2C)

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Old
12-05-2013, 07:39 PM
  #47
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After the games of 12/04/13:

Vancouver's on a small win streak, so the target is back on the climb. It currently stands at 97 points, translating to a record of 26-22-5 (a percentage of .538).

The Kings are currently on a pace to get 113 points. San Jose to get 131, Anaheim to get 112, and Phoenix to get 105, putting the Kings projected to host the freeway faceoff first-round series.

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12-08-2013, 12:32 AM
  #48
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After the games of 12/07/13:

*singing a la Steve Miller*
"Vancouver keeps on winning (winning, winning, winning...), into the future..."

Ok, maybe not. But they have won, so the target keeps rising again, this time to 99 points, which translates to a record of 26-21-5, or a percentage of .548.

Still on track for a freeway faceoff in the first round.

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12-08-2013, 01:55 PM
  #49
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And just for the heck of it, for the first time this season, I calculated the Kings' magic number -- at the moment, it stands at 100 points - a record of 50-2 will get the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

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12-11-2013, 02:07 PM
  #50
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After games of 12/10/13:

Even though Vancouver is listed in 4th in the standings, Phoenix's games in hand actually have them projected ahead of the Canucks -- meaning that Vancouver is still projected to be just outside the 2nd wildcard spot, and that their pace still sets the points needed for the post-season. And they keep winning.

So, as of now, teams in the Western Conference would need 103 points to finish ahead of Vancouver. (or, for teams on the outside looking in, they need to get 106 points to finish ahead of Minnesota). In the Eastern Conference, that number is... 80 points.

For the Kings, this would mean a need for a record of 27-19-5 (a percentage of .578).

If the playoff pairings were set by today's seedings:
Minnesota (2WC) at Chicago (1C)
Phoenix (1WC) at Anaheim (1P)
Colorado (3C) at St. Louis (2C)
Los Angeles (3P) at San Jose (2P)

The Kings' magic number stands now at 96 points - a record of 48-3 will get them into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

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