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Old
10-30-2013, 10:47 AM
  #26
Cujomi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash88 View Post
How about we do this for the rest of the team?

Karlsson is not the problem on the Sens..
Right now Karlsson is 16th on the team for on-ice +/- per 60, behind:

Clarke MacAthur (+2.90)
Matt Kassian (+2.81)
Mika Zibanejad (+2.44)
Eric Gryba (+2.19)
Cory Conacher (+2.11)
Kyle Turris (+1.83)
Stephane Da Costa (+1.41)
Zack Smith (+1.18)
Bobby Ryan (+0.70)
Joe Corvo (+0.63)
Chris Neil (+0.45)
Jared Cowen (+0.34)
Patrick Wiercioch (Even)
Chris Phillips (Even)
Marc Methot (-0.28)

Karlsson plays nearly 30 minutes a night. So while he's also usually facing tougher competition he's also facing light competition at the same time. The reality is that Spezza, Karlsson and Michalek need to be better for this team to be successful and I think that starts with Karlsson as the player that needs to be the most responsible in his own end and spends the most time on the ice of them. If he's playing better you'll see a ripple effect.

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Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Spezza has worse numbers than Karlsson, and yet you still choose to blame the D for his poor defensive play? You realize centers are supposed to play a pretty big role in team defence?

If Spezza was as defensively competent as you've been arguing, he'd be playing the role of a center in our own end, which would mean he's been a big part of the cluster**** that is our defence.

The team as a whole is playing poor defence. On any given goal, it seems like there are two or three guys making pretty big mistakes that contribute to the scoring opportunity.
I agree, but team defence is first and foremost handled by the defensive corps and on top of that the guys that are out there for the most minutes. Spezza is not doing well, but Karlsson is playing almost 30 minutes a game and they are on the ice together for 64% of the time Spezza is on the ice. If they're both playing poorly defensively it's going to cause a huge issue. Spezza's job is to create offence for the team and trying to put him in a role that he's not geared for isn't going to be successful. On top of that Spezza's mistakes are almost always in the offensive or neutral zone which leaves a lot of room for other players to step up and mitigate the damage (namely the defence) but if the defencemen are not playing well it only makes it a compounded issue. So either Karlsson needs to focus more on the defensive side of the game (we've seen it before), or they need to spend less time on the ice together because they are directly affecting one another.


Last edited by Cujomi: 10-30-2013 at 10:52 AM.
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Old
10-30-2013, 10:58 AM
  #27
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Karlssons a ****ing god

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10-30-2013, 11:12 AM
  #28
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Yep, he's been pretty bad defensively THIS YEAR. This needs to stop. It's getting to a point where it offsets his offensive game.

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10-30-2013, 11:15 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sens4life View Post
Um, not true. Not even close. Teh team is statistically better when he's NOT on the ice, both production and goals allowed.

(From Cujomi
Karlsson on the ice:
- He produces 2.58g per game
- He allows 3.05g per game

Karlsson not on the ice:
- The team produces 3.17g per game
- The team allows 2.58g per game
You must be kidding me, right? You're posting someone else's stats which have not verified, have no idea what they are based on (a season, a week of games etc), and you're using that to attack the highest point getter amongst all D today in the NHL?

Listen, if you just don't like EK, then just say so, but let's not stretch a hypothesis to fit what you want it to fit. EK is not the problem with this team.

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10-30-2013, 11:21 AM
  #30
Cujomi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exv91 View Post
You must be kidding me, right? You're posting someone else's stats which have not verified, have no idea what they are based on (a season, a week of games etc), and you're using that to attack the highest point getter amongst all D today in the NHL?

Listen, if you just don't like EK, then just say so, but let's not stretch a hypothesis to fit what you want it to fit. EK is not the problem with this team.
Ok, but EK exemplifies exactly what is wrong with this team right now. Lack of consistent effort and defensive breakdowns. He is not the sole problem Ottawa has had over this 12 game stretch but he is a big part of it. The stats (which are from this season) definitely support that.

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10-30-2013, 11:23 AM
  #31
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How is Karlsson not the problem? It starts with him and ends by him. If he plays poor, we lost and if he plays steller, we win.

The likes of Lidstrom, Weber and other great Norris Dmen always produced points while being defensively sound in their own end. Karlsson is far from that. He might be a bit better offensively from them all but light years behind when it comes to keeping the puck out of the net for his team.

Being a minus player while producing on a PPG pace is beyond pathetic and speaks for it self on how bad he has been, so far.

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10-30-2013, 11:23 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
Right now Karlsson is 16th on the team for on-ice +/- per 60, behind:

Clarke MacAthur (+2.90)
Matt Kassian (+2.81)
Mika Zibanejad (+2.44)
Eric Gryba (+2.19)
Cory Conacher (+2.11)
Kyle Turris (+1.83)
Stephane Da Costa (+1.41)
Zack Smith (+1.18)
Bobby Ryan (+0.70)
Joe Corvo (+0.63)
Chris Neil (+0.45)
Jared Cowen (+0.34)
Patrick Wiercioch (Even)
Chris Phillips (Even)
Marc Methot (-0.28)

Karlsson plays nearly 30 minutes a night. So while he's also usually facing tougher competition he's also facing light competition at the same time. The reality is that Spezza, Karlsson and Michalek need to be better for this team to be successful and I think that starts with Karlsson as the player that needs to be the most responsible in his own end and spends the most time on the ice of them. If he's playing better you'll see a ripple effect.
....
I really don't see the point of investing much time in goals based stats with a sample size this small. 12 games simply does not provide a sufficient amount of data points to get past the noise, you can't really expect to get any predictive value at this point.

Matt Kassian in second place on your list, for example, has been one the ice for one goal at ES; that's it, though he hasn't look particularly good offensively or defensively. Spezza and Michalek have sub .900 ES on ice sv%; that likely won't hold up over a season.

I'm not saying that Karlsson has been perfect, just that the value isn't there (yet) in looking at goal based stats. Wait until they've logged 1000+ mins or at least 500.

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Old
10-30-2013, 11:23 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exv91 View Post
You must be kidding me, right? You're posting someone else's stats which have not verified, have no idea what they are based on (a season, a week of games etc), and you're using that to attack the highest point getter amongst all D today in the NHL?

Listen, if you just don't like EK, then just say so, but let's not stretch a hypothesis to fit what you want it to fit. EK is not the problem with this team.
Source: behindthenet.ca, based on full season.

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10-30-2013, 11:27 AM
  #34
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Wait

We have no patience for someone recovering from a serious injury. It has been 2-3 games that he found his dynamism offensively. Give him a little time to get back to his skating defensively.
Honestly, I see that he's progressing a lot. Sure he can't really skate back like he can do but he surely showed speed and acceleration lately.
Mostly, I like his lateral speed now. He looks fearless and that can only go better.
Give him 2-3 weeks and the good Karlsson will come.

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10-30-2013, 11:31 AM
  #35
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We should consider converting Erik to a winger. NHL forwards are just too overpowering for his overall physique and style of play.


Last edited by Derivation: 10-30-2013 at 11:31 AM. Reason: derpin'
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10-30-2013, 11:32 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Derivation View Post
We should consider convert Erik to a winger. NHL forwards are just too overpowering for his overall physique and style of play.

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10-30-2013, 11:34 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
I really don't see the point of investing much time in goals based stats with a sample size this small. 12 games simply does not provide a sufficient amount of data points to get past the noise, you can't really expect to get any predictive value at this point.

Matt Kassian in second place on your list, for example, has been one the ice for one goal at ES; that's it, though he hasn't look particularly good offensively or defensively. Spezza and Michalek have sub .900 ES on ice sv%; that likely won't hold up over a season.

I'm not saying that Karlsson has been perfect, just that the value isn't there (yet) in looking at goal based stats. Wait until they've logged 1000+ mins or at least 500.
I'm not using it for projection though. It's only one aspect of what has transpired on the ice so far. It also doesn't take into account match-ups and so on, but combined with having watched every game this season outside of the players with the lowest games played it's a pretty accurate portrayal of how they have played up to this point this season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by simplefan View Post
We have no patience for someone recovering from a serious injury. It has been 2-3 games that he found his dynamism offensively. Give him a little time to get back to his skating defensively.
Honestly, I see that he's progressing a lot. Sure he can't really skate back like he can do but he surely showed speed and acceleration lately.
Mostly, I like his lateral speed now. He looks fearless and that can only go better.
Give him 2-3 weeks and the good Karlsson will come.
His skating is fine he just isn't putting the same effort into the defensive end as he is in the offensive end. If he only has energy to rush down and then coast back he should flip it -- save the speed to break up rushes and play well defensively and use his passing and hockey IQ to set up things offensively until he can rush there and back again. Cutting his ice-time would probably help.

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10-30-2013, 11:40 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
His skating is fine he just isn't putting the same effort into the defensive end as he is in the offensive end. If he only has energy to rush down and then coast back he should flip it -- save the speed to break up rushes and play well defensively and use his passing and hockey IQ to set up things offensively until he can rush there and back again. Cutting his ice-time would probably help.
Actually, if the coaching staff wanted and if the forwards would do their jobs, next game, he could play like that. He played exactly like that in 2012-13 and it was his best defensive showing. I was surprised to see Karlsson stay back so much at the beginning of the year.

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10-30-2013, 11:43 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
Right now Karlsson is 16th on the team for on-ice +/- per 60, behind:

Clarke MacAthur (+2.90)
Matt Kassian (+2.81)
Mika Zibanejad (+2.44)
Eric Gryba (+2.19)
Cory Conacher (+2.11)
Kyle Turris (+1.83)
Stephane Da Costa (+1.41)
Zack Smith (+1.18)
Bobby Ryan (+0.70)
Joe Corvo (+0.63)
Chris Neil (+0.45)
Jared Cowen (+0.34)
Patrick Wiercioch (Even)
Chris Phillips (Even)
Marc Methot (-0.28)

Karlsson plays nearly 30 minutes a night. So while he's also usually facing tougher competition he's also facing light competition at the same time. The reality is that Spezza, Karlsson and Michalek need to be better for this team to be successful and I think that starts with Karlsson as the player that needs to be the most responsible in his own end and spends the most time on the ice of them. If he's playing better you'll see a ripple effect.



I agree, but team defence is first and foremost handled by the defensive corps and on top of that the guys that are out there for the most minutes. Spezza is not doing well, but Karlsson is playing almost 30 minutes a game and they are on the ice together for 64% of the time Spezza is on the ice. If they're both playing poorly defensively it's going to cause a huge issue. Spezza's job is to create offence for the team and trying to put him in a role that he's not geared for isn't going to be successful. On top of that Spezza's mistakes are almost always in the offensive or neutral zone which leaves a lot of room for other players to step up and mitigate the damage (namely the defence) but if the defencemen are not playing well it only makes it a compounded issue. So either Karlsson needs to focus more on the defensive side of the game (we've seen it before), or they need to spend less time on the ice together because they are directly affecting one another.
Tell you 3 opposing forwards vs 2 dmen. If any of the forwards messes up on coverage its a 3 on 2 low. At this point the man in the slot is usually open.If the d man moves up to cover him it leaves someone wide open on one side of the net. I agree Karlsson is not a good defensive player never has been but forwards need to control the pass and keep the passe short. The forwards are of equal importance in a good defensive scheme.

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10-30-2013, 11:44 AM
  #40
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What's EK's QualComp while he's posting those terrible +/- per 60 numbers?

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10-30-2013, 11:45 AM
  #41
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do we really need fancy numbers to tell us what has been plainly obvious thus far?

i don't think Karlsson is sacrificing his defense to put up more points, which means he'll continue to put up points, it's just him and the defense have been bad

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10-30-2013, 11:48 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenzZen View Post
What's EK's QualComp while he's posting those terrible +/- per 60 numbers?
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+25+26+27+28#

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+25+26+27+28#

It's also interesting to see this.

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Old
10-30-2013, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by SenzZen View Post
What's EK's QualComp while he's posting those terrible +/- per 60 numbers?
Its obvious he shouldn't be on against the other teams high enders.

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10-30-2013, 11:49 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
I'm not using it for projection though. It's only one aspect of what has transpired on the ice so far. It also doesn't take into account match-ups and so on, but combined with having watched every game this season outside of the players with the lowest games played it's a pretty accurate portrayal of how they have played up to this point this season.
The fact you're not using it for projection doesn't take away from the matter that the noise in the data affects the final numbers your posting significantly. For example, I doubt you'd say Cowen, Gryba and Corvo have been significantly better than Methot.

As for it being an accurate portrayal of how they've played; perception (not just yours, but in general) will often be strongly affected by the end result. Case in point; when Neil face washes someone after the play nobody says a thing unless he gets a penalty, then it becomes a stupid play on his part. The play is the same but perception is changed drastically by the result. In a small sample, that can lead to conclusions that would not be reached over a full season.

Anyhow, I don't really have a problem with your opinion on the matter, I just don't feen the stats you're posting are relavent at this stage.

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10-30-2013, 11:53 AM
  #45
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I don't want EK to play a shutdown D role only but neither do I expect him to neglect his primary role as a D to pad his offensive stats. EK is a special player and deserves some latitude to pick his spots but he has to use good judgement and not try to score on every play. Sometimes you have to protect what you have and not play as if you have to urgently score the next goal. Points don't tell the whole story.

Some seem to expect that a forward will always be aware that he has to play D to cover for EK's risky escapades up the ice. In some situations that is true but not on every shift otherwise they might as well dress another D as a forward and ask him to play D for EK on practically every shift.

On the post game radio show Todd White made an interesting observation. He said EK tries to anticipate what the opposing player will do so he can intercept plays and get up the ice. Problem is that the opposition know that and make a different play which takes EK out of he play and they take advantage of it. I think he's on to something. In some ways the game is like any strategy game where you can lay traps for guys to walk into. They know EK wants to jump in and rush the puck so they disguise the plays and their defensive coverage to get him to bite and take him out of position.

btw) In the spirit of this thread the focus of this post is EK but a lot could be written about other guys too. Most of the forwards have been cheating by leaving the zone early trying to create offense when the puck is still in our zone and they are getting caught up the ice but that's another story.

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10-30-2013, 11:53 AM
  #46
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I think what the stats show is that he is a mess defensively. That is nothing new. He weighs a buck sixty and is not going to separate pucks from their carriers regularly. He needs to put more pucks on others sticks rather than carry it up individually more often than not. Teams focus on patterns. His ability is in the offensive zone, where there may be no one better.

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10-30-2013, 11:55 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simplefan View Post
Actually, if the coaching staff wanted and if the forwards would do their jobs, next game, he could play like that. He played exactly like that in 2012-13 and it was his best defensive showing. I was surprised to see Karlsson stay back so much at the beginning of the year.
What coach wants a player to coast back? He's trying to do too much.

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10-30-2013, 11:56 AM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tundraman View Post
On the post game radio show Todd White made an interesting observation. He said EK tries to anticipate what the opposing player will do so he can intercept plays and get up the ice. Problem is that the opposition know that and make a different play which takes EK out of he play and they take advantage of it. I think he's on to something. In some ways the game is like any strategy game where you can lay traps for guys to walk into. They know EK wants to jump in and rush the puck so they disguise the plays and their defensive coverage to get him to bite and take him out of position.
It's not that the other teams are taking advantage of his anticipation, it's that this style of play, even at Karlsson's best, will fail at times. It's not much to worry about since it should happen very few times once the team is playing properly.

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10-30-2013, 11:58 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
So you're using goals base stast for his level of play on the sens, but corsi based stats for his QOC and QOT? That seems a little dubious don't you think?

Karlsson currently has the highest Rel Corsi of any Ott defenceman, and the second highest Corsi on. So by that standard, he would appear to be doing pretty well.

And there is the problem; the sample really isn't sufficient to get reliable results, and while I not trying to say your doing it on purpose, but the stats you post seem to be only the ones that line up with your preconcieved notions.

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10-30-2013, 12:08 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
Ok, but EK exemplifies exactly what is wrong with this team right now. Lack of consistent effort and defensive breakdowns. He is not the sole problem Ottawa has had over this 12 game stretch but he is a big part of it. The stats (which are from this season) definitely support that.
I could say the exact same thing about Spezza & have many times. I think Toews showed us last night why he is on Team Canada & Spezza is not. He plays a complete game, a 200' game & he never quits on a play at either end of the ice, he's a great leader & a great captain.

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