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Old
11-02-2013, 02:20 PM
  #526
Paranoid Android
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
The stat doesn't really account for games in hand either. It's a snapshot that has so many variables in it that it's impossible to use definitively. We're 4 points back from the last spot, with a game in hand .... so are we really 4 points out, or 2?
I'm not saying it should be used definitively. It's just a fun drive-by stat that has happened to show a strong trend over the past decade. If Pekka wasn't hurt, I'd say we'd be a good candidate to be the 4th team to do it.

The funny part is, we play that #8 seed tonight.

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11-02-2013, 02:24 PM
  #527
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I mean the Titans and the NFL were all over town working on the politicians to get their players exempted from this....
I'm sure a lot of it has to do with the sales taxation laws and their relationship to having a Sports Authority. There is a very complex relationship between sales tax distribution, Sports Authorities, state funding, etc.

My big question is if the NHLPA is successful then where does the city generate the $50-60k per game in revenues that it uses to help pay for its portion of arena operations? Will it result in higher parking fees on game days? Higher ticket surcharges? A change in the distribution of the hotel/motel tax generated funds?

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11-02-2013, 02:25 PM
  #528
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Originally Posted by Paranoid Android View Post
I'm not saying it should be used definitively. It's just a fun drive-by stat that has happened to show a strong trend over the past decade. If Pekka wasn't hurt, I'd say we'd be a good candidate to be the 4th team to do it.

The funny part is, we play that #8 seed tonight.

The #8 seed who we just happen to have a game in hand on. Win in regulation tonight, and we're two points back while retaining that game in hand.

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11-02-2013, 02:38 PM
  #529
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
I'm sure a lot of it has to do with the sales taxation laws and their relationship to having a Sports Authority. There is a very complex relationship between sales tax distribution, Sports Authorities, state funding, etc.

My big question is if the NHLPA is successful then where does the city generate the $50-60k per game in revenues that it uses to help pay for its portion of arena operations? Will it result in higher parking fees on game days? Higher ticket surcharges? A change in the distribution of the hotel/motel tax generated funds?
I don't know. And then there is this tax that is new
http://www.wsmv.com/story/23700478/m...ig-conventions

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11-02-2013, 02:42 PM
  #530
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Paranoid, I'd like to check your facts. What are you using to see the standings at certain points?

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11-02-2013, 03:04 PM
  #531
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Paranoid, I'd like to check your facts. What are you using to see the standings at certain points?
http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

I've checked the results of this site a few times in the past and it's been 100% accurate for me so far.

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11-02-2013, 03:08 PM
  #532
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Thanks!

I needed that for another unrelated argument.

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11-02-2013, 03:42 PM
  #533
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So after 20 games they were 4th in the West, after 25 they were in a 3 way tie for 8th, that site doesn't show R/O/W, and since it doesn't actually seed division winners I'm not sure who had the tie breakers.

So point still stands that not all teams that end bad, started bad.

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11-02-2013, 05:09 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
So after 20 games they were 4th in the West, after 25 they were in a 3 way tie for 8th, that site doesn't show R/O/W, and since it doesn't actually seed division winners I'm not sure who had the tie breakers.

So point still stands that not all teams that end bad, started bad.
I have no idea if the statistical oddity works in reverse (those numbers would be interesting as well). The article only makes the "start bad, very likely to end bad" claim. Also, it never claims "all," only most. Furthermore, the numbers from the shortened season were excluded since everyone was at home twiddling their thumbs on November 1st.

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11-02-2013, 05:38 PM
  #535
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Fair enough.

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Old
11-02-2013, 10:29 PM
  #536
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Legwand is going to lead the team in points again this season and then not get resigned.....

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11-03-2013, 10:06 AM
  #537
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I get your point though. Yes, every once in a blue moon a team disregards this trend. I hope that is us this year, but the odds are greatly against us.

For the record, LA was tied for 4th in the West on November 1st of their Cup year. They started and finished strong, but were weak in the middle.
Get this, they also made that risky decision of a coaching change.

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11-03-2013, 10:56 AM
  #538
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Legwand is going to lead the team in points again this season and then not get resigned.....
probably won't be worth what he gets. but we know how free agency goes.

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11-03-2013, 05:51 PM
  #539
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Get this, they also made that risky decision of a coaching change.
Trading Jack Johnson.... THAT WAS KEY

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11-03-2013, 07:44 PM
  #540
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I hope legs and fish retire as preds

I think 4 years at 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 should do it for Legwand ( if he produces at a career pace this yr)


End up trading stalberg to accommodate leggy's salary

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Old
11-03-2013, 08:15 PM
  #541
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I hope legs and fish retire as preds

I think 4 years at 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 should do it for Legwand ( if he produces at a career pace this yr)


End up trading stalberg to accommodate leggy's salary
more than im willing to give leggy .. sorry.. offer a 4 yr 13 million tops

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Old
11-03-2013, 08:37 PM
  #542
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Here's my problem with jumping to signing Legwand. Yes, he is scoring but that maybe because he's no longer being used on the PK. His PP TOI has gone up dramatically but he's only averaging a shift a game of PK time if that. We might be seeing Trotz trusting him more on the PP than PK. His total TOI is down about 3 minutes a game. If anything, I see him heading out the door.

If the Preds are out of it they offer the Vet defensive character players you want to add to bolster a playoff team and add pieces to a young growing team.

If the Preds are in it, I expect Legwand to leave after this season to give an open roster spot to one of the growing corp of forwards in Milwaukee. After the Preds ship one of the forwards to another team to get what IT needs for a playoff push.

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11-03-2013, 09:07 PM
  #543
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I'm not so sure Poile and/or Trotz will be here next year. If the team tanks again, I'd say major changes in approach happen. The Predator Way will be gone. And Legwand is the poster child of the Predator Way.

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Old
11-03-2013, 09:27 PM
  #544
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Maybe Legwand is more energized on offense since he doesn't seem to have the PK duties like he has in the past and it's reflecting in his offensive numbers.

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Old
11-03-2013, 09:41 PM
  #545
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Something to think about when discussing David Legwand. For all the time he has been a Predator he has not been a consistent performer and has never reached the level one would expect of a number 2 pick in the draft. He has shown flashes of potential but has always been a fairly soft player. He is off to a great start this year, but it is a "contract" year for him. If he continues his level of play than we would benefit. However, it would concern me that we would throw money at him for his finally playing up to his potential only because it would be in his best monetary interest to perform and I would be concerned that once he got a guarantee he would go back to the level of play he has historically proven here. Just something to think about.

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Old
11-03-2013, 10:20 PM
  #546
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The last time I ran the numbers in 2011, Legwand was the median performing second forward selected in a draft from 1990 on when comparing average points per game. There is what people expect, then there is reality. Everyone wants career point per game players on their roster ... those average about one per draft class going back to 1990. We all want teams full of 20 goal scorers every season ... the league gets 120-130 of them per full season.

Given where Legwand stands in team statistics and his status as the first selection by the Preds in an entry draft, the odds are good his number gets honored by the team in some way if he retires after playing for only us. If he leaves before ending his career, who knows ... my guess is the team probably still honors him after retirement as long as he doesn't pull a Suter on his way out the door.

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Old
11-04-2013, 12:02 PM
  #547
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how much will a 50 point center get on the open market? Derek Roy is a good comparable and got a 4 million dollar deal after a lot of money ran dry. Legwand is worth 4-4.5

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Old
11-07-2013, 12:30 AM
  #548
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Ekholm actually looked decent with Ellis. Dude is a keeper for sure.

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Old
11-07-2013, 12:45 AM
  #549
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how much will a 50 point center get on the open market? Derek Roy is a good comparable and got a 4 million dollar deal after a lot of money ran dry. Legwand is worth 4-4.5
Easier to say when he's on his best 10 game stretch in the last 7 years.

Roy is 4 years younger and signed a one year deal. Scored over 20 4 times, Legwand once.

Morrow would be a better comparable at 34 years old. Though he was once considered the "ultimate team leader" and made Team Canada on will power alone. Legwand's will power shows up in his contract year.

But let's take advantage of his contact year motivation while we can...


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Old
11-07-2013, 07:36 AM
  #550
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
Easier to say when he's on his best 10 game stretch in the last 7 years.

Roy is 4 years younger and signed a one year deal. Scored over 20 4 times, Legwand once.

Morrow would be a better comparable at 34 years old. Though he was once considered the "ultimate team leader" and made Team Canada on will power alone. Legwand's will power shows up in his contract year.

But let's take advantage of his contact year motivation while we can...
I thought Roy was older than that, and his best years were the couple coming right out of the lockout and has been a half point a game player since-kinda like Legwand. Roy is perfect comparison age be darned. He pulled 5.5 on the open market. Legwand with 40-50 points will get the 4.5 he makes now.

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