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MLB Discussion Thread, Part II: Yanks pay Ellsbury

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Old
11-19-2013, 08:08 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by clmetsfan View Post
Boras's strategy the last few years has been to wait as long as possible to get a big payday, and for guys last year (Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, and Rafael Soriano), it didn't pay off. They got deals, but for much less than what was originally proposed. Given the uncertainty of being a high-ticket Boras client these days, I can see why someone would leave. Don't forget, these guys have real lives that have to work in conjunction with their job contracts, and waiting until the last minute to decide where you and your family are going to move for the next several years is not a pleasant scenario.

Lohse was coming off a career year. Cardinals had young pitchers coming up from minors and they had no interest in bringing Lohse back at the money he's after. Bourn played over his head as well. Boras wanted Yankees to give closer type money to Soariano on a longterm deal. Good luck with that.

Boras does hold off and will get his clients the payday they want more often than not but you have to have realistic goals and there has to be a market. I mean teams are always desperate for pitching yet no one wanted Lohse because of the extremely high demands by Boras.

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11-19-2013, 09:40 PM
  #677
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I don't even know why the Mets and Cano's fake agent Jay-Z met. It couldn't have been about playing in NY. The Mets have said they won't dish out 100M contract. Cano said he wants a 300M contract. That's an over 200 MILLION DOLLAR difference. A waste of Jay-Z's, Wilpon's, Cano's, Mr Met's, and the fans time.

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11-22-2013, 05:54 PM
  #678
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OF Chris Young to Mets on a 1 year deal. 7.5 mill.

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11-22-2013, 05:59 PM
  #679
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I don't even know why the Mets and Cano's fake agent Jay-Z met. It couldn't have been about playing in NY. The Mets have said they won't dish out 100M contract. Cano said he wants a 300M contract. That's an over 200 MILLION DOLLAR difference. A waste of Jay-Z's, Wilpon's, Cano's, Mr Met's, and the fans time.
it was Jay Z's pathetic attempt at putting pressure on the Yankees to up their bid.. talk about delusional and desperate.

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11-22-2013, 06:01 PM
  #680
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OF Chris Young to Mets on a 1 year deal. 7.5 mill.
I hope there's more OF moves than this. Guy can barely hit .200 now. How he got 7 million is beyond me.

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11-22-2013, 06:11 PM
  #681
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Because it was a very good deal. He plays good defense, is a good base runner, walks a lot, has good power, and good speed. Negatives are low avg due to tendency of being an extreme FB hitter and lots of strikeouts. Down year last year was largely due to a .237 babip when his career is .275 or so. 3 seasons prior to last year he was averaging almost 4 WAR/160 games. 7.5M is the amount a slightly below league average starter gets(~5M/WAR is the going rate) and throughout his career he has been average to above average. It doesn't prevent them from making other longer term commitments as it's only a one year deal. If he plays back to his usual self he is a useful player and if the team isn't looking good they can get a decent piece back for him at the deadline.

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11-22-2013, 06:20 PM
  #682
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Because it was a very good deal. He plays good defense, is a good base runner, walks a lot, has good power, and good speed. Negatives are low avg due to tendency of being an extreme FB hitter and lots of strikeouts. Down year last year was largely due to a .237 babip when his career is .275 or so. 3 seasons prior to last year he was averaging almost 4 WAR/160 games. 7.5M is the amount a slightly below league average starter gets(~5M/WAR is the going rate) and throughout his career he has been average to above average. It doesn't prevent them from making other longer term commitments as it's only a one year deal. If he plays back to his usual self he is a useful player and if the team isn't looking good they can get a decent piece back for him at the deadline.
He's been a major disappointment the last 2 years and is trending downwards. Sure it leaves room for other commitments but is a penny pinching team really gonna bench a guy making that much? He's being paid to be a below average starter as you said, when the other 2/3 of the OF is Eric Young and possibly Lagares if he sticks around wouldn't you want that 7 million going to someone better?

If I'm wrong and he's the next Byrd for the Mets then great, but it's hard to strike oil twice in the bargain bin on declining players.

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11-22-2013, 06:33 PM
  #683
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That's not true. He was the same player in 2012 as he was in 2011 and 2010 he just was hurt and missed games. Last year he had a bad year, sure, doesn't mean he can't play anymore. He is getting paid the amount a below average starter gets while providing above average production. It's a good investment. The 7 million can not be spent on someone better. It's not a lot of money for a baseball player. Jason Vargas just got 8M/yr for 4 years in his age 31-35 season to be a bottom of the rotation decent starter. There is no evidence to support Young being in a decline now. The difference between 2012 (good player) and 2013 (bad player) Chris Young was essentially 30 points of babip, a slightly higher k rate(but a rate he's had before). Additionally another reason to consider his lower average/babip last year was he, a huge flyball hitter -and someone who pops up a lot-, moved to Oakland which is a place with massive amounts of foul territory which almost certainly cost him extra popouts and flyouts that would have been foul balls in ARI/will be in NY.

I would have preferred we signed him to a 2-3 year deal than a 1 year deal even. And I would certainly rather have Young for 7M a year than Nelson Cruz for 12-15.

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11-22-2013, 11:36 PM
  #684
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That's not true. He was the same player in 2012 as he was in 2011 and 2010 he just was hurt and missed games. Last year he had a bad year, sure, doesn't mean he can't play anymore. He is getting paid the amount a below average starter gets while providing above average production. It's a good investment. The 7 million can not be spent on someone better. It's not a lot of money for a baseball player. Jason Vargas just got 8M/yr for 4 years in his age 31-35 season to be a bottom of the rotation decent starter. There is no evidence to support Young being in a decline now. The difference between 2012 (good player) and 2013 (bad player) Chris Young was essentially 30 points of babip, a slightly higher k rate(but a rate he's had before). Additionally another reason to consider his lower average/babip last year was he, a huge flyball hitter -and someone who pops up a lot-, moved to Oakland which is a place with massive amounts of foul territory which almost certainly cost him extra popouts and flyouts that would have been foul balls in ARI/will be in NY.

I would have preferred we signed him to a 2-3 year deal than a 1 year deal even. And I would certainly rather have Young for 7M a year than Nelson Cruz for 12-15.


You do realise that had be racked up enough at bats this season to qualify he'd be dead last in majors in OPS and OBP amongst CFers. He was almost equally as bad in 2011 and 2012. 2010 was last time Young was a decent player and even then he didn't set the world on fire.

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11-23-2013, 10:39 AM
  #685
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I'm sorry you are completely wrong. He was a good player in 2011 and 2012. If you would like to make your entire basis of "good player" on batting average that's fine but your player valuation will be severely lacking. There is more to the game than hitting. In both 2011 and 2012 he posted above average walk rates which kept his OBP from being too terrible.

The average line for a CF in 2011/2012 was about .262/.327/.410 with a .148 ISO, .322 woba and 101 wRC+. During those years Young was .234/.324/.425 with a .191 ISO, .328 WOBA and 101 wRC+. So much worse at average, about CF average in OBP, much better power and overall exactly your average CF in offensive production.

Now while doing this he also was the number 1 ranked defensive CF and provided below average (but still positive) baserunning. He was also 10th of 22 qualified CF in WAR with 7.0 while playing in the 19th most games in 2012 due to injury. Of course he might be worse slightly less defensively for us if he is playing the corner because we have Lagares who might be the CF already.

He most certainly did not have a good season in 2013 but if you actually pay attention to the why rather than the what you will see it was largely due to misfortune. His counting numbers were the same/on the same pace as his 2012/2011 numbers. His walk rate dipped a bit but still was right around his league average. As I previously mentioned he struck out more than usual last year but he always strikes out a lot and has put up good seasons in the past with lots of strikeouts. Essentially the only difference between 2013 Young and previous year Youngs is his .237 BABIP - career average .274. His batted ball profile was almost identical. As I mentioned before his extreme flyball tendencies would be a huge detriment when playing in Oakland due to the massive amount of foul territory. The only other thing that looks slightly out of line is he chased more pitches out of the strikezone last year BUT at the same time he also made more contact with pitches out of the strikezone.

Young is a good player. A lot of his value is tied up in things that are not easily seen by the average fan who will hate him because of a low batting average and lots of strikeouts. Dave Cameron wrote a very good article about him yesterday. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-...n-chris-young/

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11-23-2013, 10:45 AM
  #686
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Personally i dont have a problem with Chris Young. Is he gonna be the player he was in Arizona? Probably not BUT he isnt a bum either. he is still relatively young, plays good defense and has some pop which my team desperately need. Now i hate that we gave him 7.5 million but as long as it leads to more moves like cruz/peralta/granderson/hughes then thats fine. Look Im a positive met fan but im also realistic. i dont expect to get impact bats at every OF position unless we give up (wheeler,syndergaard,tda,montero,murphy). All we need is maybe a guy like peralta, ganderson/cruz and another starter and i will be happy. 2014 im looking for at least 84-88 wins. then in 2015 with Harvey back we need to be more aggreasive

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11-23-2013, 10:57 AM
  #687
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I'm sorry you are completely wrong. He was a good player in 2011 and 2012. If you would like to make your entire basis of "good player" on batting average that's fine but your player valuation will be severely lacking. There is more to the game than hitting. In both 2011 and 2012 he posted above average walk rates which kept his OBP from being too terrible.

The average line for a CF in 2011/2012 was about .262/.327/.410 with a .148 ISO, .322 woba and 101 wRC+. During those years Young was .234/.324/.425 with a .191 ISO, .328 WOBA and 101 wRC+. So much worse at average, about CF average in OBP, much better power and overall exactly your average CF in offensive production.

Now while doing this he also was the number 1 ranked defensive CF and provided below average (but still positive) baserunning. He was also 10th of 22 qualified CF in WAR with 7.0 while playing in the 19th most games in 2012 due to injury. Of course he might be worse slightly less defensively for us if he is playing the corner because we have Lagares who might be the CF already.

He most certainly did not have a good season in 2013 but if you actually pay attention to the why rather than the what you will see it was largely due to misfortune. His counting numbers were the same/on the same pace as his 2012/2011 numbers. His walk rate dipped a bit but still was right around his league average. As I previously mentioned he struck out more than usual last year but he always strikes out a lot and has put up good seasons in the past with lots of strikeouts. Essentially the only difference between 2013 Young and previous year Youngs is his .237 BABIP - career average .274. His batted ball profile was almost identical. As I mentioned before his extreme flyball tendencies would be a huge detriment when playing in Oakland due to the massive amount of foul territory. The only other thing that looks slightly out of line is he chased more pitches out of the strikezone last year BUT at the same time he also made more contact with pitches out of the strikezone.

Young is a good player. A lot of his value is tied up in things that are not easily seen by the average fan who will hate him because of a low batting average and lots of strikeouts. Dave Cameron wrote a very good article about him yesterday. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-...n-chris-young/
The problem is guys who hit for a low batting average and strikeout a lot don't become better hitters as they get older. The avg. continues to drop with more strikeouts. I think Young is in the decline of his career, he doesn't run as well as he used too, and the power numbers probably won't be what they once were despite what Sabremetrics may say. Good defense and high walk totals is nice and all but you have to hit .200 to at least be a backup in this league.

He has flyball tendencies and Citi Field while not what it once was isn't exactly like hitting at Yankee Stadium. I don't see this change in ball parks making that great of a difference.

And to top it off he's on yet another team this year, both Arizona and Oakland have decided the flaws don't meet the strengths.

Like I said before I'd love to see him be the next Byrd, but I don't see it happening.

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11-23-2013, 11:33 AM
  #688
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The problem is guys who hit for a low batting average and strikeout a lot don't become better hitters as they get older. The avg. continues to drop with more strikeouts. I think Young is in the decline of his career, he doesn't run as well as he used too, and the power numbers probably won't be what they once were despite what Sabremetrics may say. Good defense and high walk totals is nice and all but you have to hit .200 to at least be a backup in this league.

He has flyball tendencies and Citi Field while not what it once was isn't exactly like hitting at Yankee Stadium. I don't see this change in ball parks making that great of a difference.

And to top it off he's on yet another team this year, both Arizona and Oakland have decided the flaws don't meet the strengths.

Like I said before I'd love to see him be the next Byrd, but I don't see it happening.
It's not the ballparks that I'm talking about in regards to power. I think mets blog posted a field chart showing how many of his hr would be out there. The difference is the amount of fly outs/pop outs in Oakland that will be foul balls here. Young 1-7 is a much better deal than Byrd for 2-16. Byrd is older and just had a career year like nothing he's ever had before at age 34. The only reason we are even getting Young this cheap is because he's coming off a bad year. Compare him to BJ Upton (who, yes had a miserable year this year). They are strikingly similar players - upton a better base stealer- young a bit more power. Upton got I think 5-75 coming off a good year. Young got a huge discount since he's coming off a bad year

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11-23-2013, 11:51 AM
  #689
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It's not the ballparks that I'm talking about in regards to power. I think mets blog posted a field chart showing how many of his hr would be out there. The difference is the amount of fly outs/pop outs in Oakland that will be foul balls here. Young 1-7 is a much better deal than Byrd for 2-16. Byrd is older and just had a career year like nothing he's ever had before at age 34. The only reason we are even getting Young this cheap is because he's coming off a bad year. Compare him to BJ Upton (who, yes had a miserable year this year). They are strikingly similar players - upton a better base stealer- young a bit more power. Upton got I think 5-75 coming off a good year. Young got a huge discount since he's coming off a bad year
Well I'm not sure whether he'll turn these foul balls into hits or strikeouts or walks but yes I can agree with you on the deal aspect compared to those guys. It's another bargain bin type deal, like we're becoming accustomed to since the Madoff scandal, and hopefully he can revert back to being a starter in this league. Otherwise he's getting paid a bit much to be on the bench, on this team's budget at least.

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11-23-2013, 04:56 PM
  #690
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Brian Mccann is close to a deal with the Yankees.

Brian McCann Closing In On Deal With Yankees
By Zach Links [November 23 at 4:51pm CST]

4:51pm: The deal could be worth close to $90MM, if not more, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

4:41pm: McCann is closing in on a five-year, $80MM+ deal with the Yankees, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Two other sources tell Rosenthal (Twitter link) that the Rockies made a late, strong run at McCann.

4:13pm: Brian McCann is on the verge of a long-term deal with the Yankees, two sources tell Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. McCann’s agent, B.B. Abbott, told Grant that he could not confirm that his client had agreed to terms with any team.

McCann, soon-to-be 30, is also said to be on the radar for the Red Sox and Rangers this offseason. The veteran hit .256/.336/.461 in 102 games for the Braves last season and has been widely regarded as this winter's top free agent catcher over Boston's Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The backstop ranks fourth on Tim Dierkes' Top 50 Free Agents List for this offseason.

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11-23-2013, 05:12 PM
  #691
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Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 3s
Yankees mccann finalizing $85M/5 year deal

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11-23-2013, 05:16 PM
  #692
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Mark Feinsand ✔ @FeinsandNYDN
McCann's deal with the Yankees is done, pending a physical.

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11-23-2013, 05:28 PM
  #693
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Pricey but I like it any way. Big McCann fan.

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11-23-2013, 05:34 PM
  #694
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Pricey but I like it any way. Big McCann fan.
The predictions were spot on, people had him at 5 years between 80 and 90M.. 5/85.. significant upgrade to the catching position. I love that its only 5 years as well, takes him to age 34.

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11-23-2013, 05:49 PM
  #695
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At least he has some good years left and isn't in his late 30's, early 40's like many guys the Yankees have signed recently.

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11-23-2013, 05:52 PM
  #696
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At least he has some good years left and isn't in his late 30's, early 40's like many guys the Yankees have signed recently.
This deal only takes him to 34.

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11-23-2013, 05:56 PM
  #697
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As a Mets fan Im glad to see him leave...Dude can flat out rake...He will destroy that porch in right

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11-23-2013, 06:15 PM
  #698
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Brian McCann has to be the oldest 29 year old in the game. Thought he was like 33 or 34 lol.

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11-23-2013, 06:31 PM
  #699
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Pricey but I like it any way. Big McCann fan.
Big McCann Fan Dan.

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11-23-2013, 07:46 PM
  #700
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I'm sorry you are completely wrong. He was a good player in 2011 and 2012. If you would like to make your entire basis of "good player" on batting average that's fine but your player valuation will be severely lacking. There is more to the game than hitting. In both 2011 and 2012 he posted above average walk rates which kept his OBP from being too terrible.

The average line for a CF in 2011/2012 was about .262/.327/.410 with a .148 ISO, .322 woba and 101 wRC+. During those years Young was .234/.324/.425 with a .191 ISO, .328 WOBA and 101 wRC+. So much worse at average, about CF average in OBP, much better power and overall exactly your average CF in offensive production.

Now while doing this he also was the number 1 ranked defensive CF and provided below average (but still positive) baserunning. He was also 10th of 22 qualified CF in WAR with 7.0 while playing in the 19th most games in 2012 due to injury. Of course he might be worse slightly less defensively for us if he is playing the corner because we have Lagares who might be the CF already.

He most certainly did not have a good season in 2013 but if you actually pay attention to the why rather than the what you will see it was largely due to misfortune. His counting numbers were the same/on the same pace as his 2012/2011 numbers. His walk rate dipped a bit but still was right around his league average. As I previously mentioned he struck out more than usual last year but he always strikes out a lot and has put up good seasons in the past with lots of strikeouts. Essentially the only difference between 2013 Young and previous year Youngs is his .237 BABIP - career average .274. His batted ball profile was almost identical. As I mentioned before his extreme flyball tendencies would be a huge detriment when playing in Oakland due to the massive amount of foul territory. The only other thing that looks slightly out of line is he chased more pitches out of the strikezone last year BUT at the same time he also made more contact with pitches out of the strikezone.

Young is a good player. A lot of his value is tied up in things that are not easily seen by the average fan who will hate him because of a low batting average and lots of strikeouts. Dave Cameron wrote a very good article about him yesterday. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-...n-chris-young/


Not once did I use batting average. OPS is the stat I used. The guy would make an excellent 4th outfielder because he's one of the better defensive OFers in the game. At the plate he doesn't cut it as a starter.

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