HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

Corsi, shot quality, and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-25-2013, 03:17 AM
  #301
Delicious Dangles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,097
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
The Leafs were terrible.

Actually - I just checked, and the Leafs conceded 101 attempts at net last night.

I do believe that's some kind of record. Literally - I have regular season data from 2007-11 and I don't believe that any team allowed that many attempts at net during that period.

And that's at home. Against a team that played the night before. Who themselves get outshot on average.

Wow.
And yet the Leafs still controlled play, still got more scoring chances, and still won. That should tell you all you need to know right there.

Delicious Dangles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 04:47 AM
  #302
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
 
Master_Of_Districts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Country: Belarus
Posts: 1,746
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delicious Dangles View Post
And yet the Leafs still controlled play, still got more scoring chances, and still won. That should tell you all you need to know right there.
Please post the scoring chance data that you're referring to - for the sake of transparency.

Unless, of course, you're just making stuff up again.


Last edited by Chalupa Batman: 11-25-2013 at 09:29 AM. Reason: You've got to be kidding me.
Master_Of_Districts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 09:25 AM
  #303
Delicious Dangles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,097
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
Please post the scoring chance data that you're referring to - for the sake of transparency.

Unless, of course, you're just making stuff up again.
1. I have never "made stuff up".
2. The control of play and scoring data is easily visible while WATCHING games, something which you obviously do not do, yet this does not stop you from making wildly incorrect claims about the team in question.
3. As has been posted multiple times in this thread, and as I pointed out on the previous page, links to sites that show this specific data have been freely provided by multiple individuals in this thread. You are free to do the research if you do not believe what your eyes would tell you, if you actually watched the games.

But the biggest proof is in the pudding. WE WON. AGAIN. 71 games (78 including Playoffs) and counting.

(though technically, Leafs have been defying corsi for years, now we're just winning with it)


Last edited by Chalupa Batman: 11-25-2013 at 09:29 AM. Reason: QEP
Delicious Dangles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 07:30 PM
  #304
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
 
Master_Of_Districts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Country: Belarus
Posts: 1,746
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delicious Dangles View Post
1. I have never "made stuff up".
2. The control of play and scoring data is easily visible while WATCHING games, something which you obviously do not do, yet this does not stop you from making wildly incorrect claims about the team in question.
3. As has been posted multiple times in this thread, and as I pointed out on the previous page, links to sites that show this specific data have been freely provided by multiple individuals in this thread. You are free to do the research if you do not believe what your eyes would tell you, if you actually watched the games.

But the biggest proof is in the pudding. WE WON. AGAIN. 71 games (78 including Playoffs) and counting.

(though technically, Leafs have been defying corsi for years, now we're just winning with it)
I watched the game.

By my recollection, the Capitals had more scoring chances. By a lot.

So who's right?

Master_Of_Districts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 08:27 PM
  #305
Micklebot
Registered User
 
Micklebot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 4,611
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TieClark View Post
There's several links posted in here that I've seen showing the same thing. I don't think anyone has taken the time to actually go ahead and show a large collection in one graph though.
Thankfully there's an app for that.

Shots for Toronto at ES within 20 feet
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index...&search=Search

At the time of this post; 122 total Shots and Goals, 4 without (x,y) coordinates.
Average distance: 12.9 feet
Shooting Percentage: 17 goals / 122 shots = 13.9%

Shots against Toronto at ES within 20 feet
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index...&search=Search

At the time of this post; 152 total Shots and Goals, 8 without (x,y) coordinates.
Average distance: 12.7 feet
Shooting Percentage: 17 goals / 152 shots = 11.2%

Shot charts seem to disprove that Toronto gets more shots from in close than their opponents. That doesn't mean they aren't getting better chances, but that is harder to quantify.

Micklebot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 08:30 PM
  #306
sjci
Registered User
 
sjci's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Buffalo
Country: United States
Posts: 1,535
vCash: 313
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...hls-defencemen

sjci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-26-2013, 12:52 AM
  #307
Delicious Dangles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,097
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
I watched the game.

By my recollection, the Capitals had more scoring chances. By a lot.

So who's right?
The burden of proof is on you.

Delicious Dangles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-26-2013, 09:24 AM
  #308
Chalupa Batman
Mod Supervisor
 
Chalupa Batman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,163
vCash: 500
The next person who can't follow the site-specific rules in the sticky (to the point: respect one another) will receive a forum ban.

Chalupa Batman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-26-2013, 11:26 AM
  #309
tmlms13
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Waterloo, Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 277
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
The Leafs were terrible.

Actually - I just checked, and the Leafs conceded 101 attempts at net last night.

I do believe that's some kind of record. Literally - I have regular season data from 2007-11 and I don't believe that any team allowed that many attempts at net during that period.

And that's at home. Against a team that played the night before. Who themselves get outshot on average.

Wow.
Jon Carlson's 6 unscreened shots into Reimer's chest from the point don't really count as scoring chances imo.

tmlms13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-26-2013, 06:44 PM
  #310
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
 
Master_Of_Districts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Country: Belarus
Posts: 1,746
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmlms13 View Post
Jon Carlson's 6 unscreened shots into Reimer's chest from the point don't really count as scoring chances imo.
Good thing no one claimed otherwise.

Master_Of_Districts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-26-2013, 07:29 PM
  #311
MarkGio
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,869
vCash: 67
Are the Leafs the only club sort of defying the corsi principle? If there was some comparisons, we could hope to identify a common denominator

MarkGio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-27-2013, 11:59 AM
  #312
Noob616
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,378
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
Are the Leafs the only club sort of defying the corsi principle? If there was some comparisons, we could hope to identify a common denominator
Not to the same degree but Nashville a few years back was in the lower half of the league possession wise but were held in higher regard. The explanation was essentially Suter-Weber-Rinne. The common denominator in both cases seems to be goaltending, but some are still quite skeptical that Bernier and Reimer are truly elite top tier goalies in the long term. Obvious differences are the Leafs having tons more firepower up front compared to the Predators, but I don't think anyone's going to argue that Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are Suter and Weber.

Noob616 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-27-2013, 09:39 PM
  #313
struckbyaparkedcar
Zemgus Da Gawd
 
struckbyaparkedcar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Upstate NY
Country: Cote DIvoire
Posts: 10,520
vCash: 500
Nashville also had the most efficient PP in the league in 2012, and Suter/Weber were typically possession neutral, so the players really contributing to the Predators' terrible corsi stats were the depth.

struckbyaparkedcar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-28-2013, 06:35 AM
  #314
Confucius
Registered User
 
Confucius's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,473
vCash: 500
Someone should do advanced analytics on refs. Missed penalties, phantom penalties, favour home team / visiting team.

Confucius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-28-2013, 09:14 AM
  #315
Fleury3434
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 437
vCash: 500
Maybe if leaf fans start realizing they choke a lot In stead of blaming the refs they could fix this problem

Fleury3434 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-28-2013, 12:48 PM
  #316
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
 
Master_Of_Districts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Country: Belarus
Posts: 1,746
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charon of Styx View Post
Someone should do advanced analytics on refs. Missed penalties, phantom penalties, favour home team / visiting team.
They're certainly human in the way one might expect.

Evidence discloses that they favor the home team to some degree, as well as the team playing from behind.

Master_Of_Districts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2013, 09:34 PM
  #317
opendoor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,168
vCash: 500
The thing is, the Leafs aren't really defying anything. They're a mediocre even strength team in terms of results (only +2 in GF/GA) and after their hot start they've been a .500 team over the last 6 weeks despite having a pretty soft schedule. 8-8-3 in their last 19 and only 7 of those games were against teams currently in a playoff spot.

We'll see where they sit at Christmas after a pretty tough stretch (9 of their next 12 vs. playoff teams including games against SJS, BOS, LAK, STL, CHI, PHX, and DET).

opendoor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 01:32 AM
  #318
It Was 4 to 1
Penguins MVPs
 
It Was 4 to 1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: #FireCapuano
Country: United States
Posts: 1,816
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delicious Dangles View Post
(though technically, Leafs have been defying corsi for years, now we're just winning with it)
how do you defy something by proving it right?

It Was 4 to 1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 07:58 AM
  #319
Dr Quincy
Registered User
 
Dr Quincy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Country: United States
Posts: 15,356
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
The thing is, the Leafs aren't really defying anything. They're a mediocre even strength team in terms of results (only +2 in GF/GA) and after their hot start they've been a .500 team over the last 6 weeks despite having a pretty soft schedule. 8-8-3 in their last 19 and only 7 of those games were against teams currently in a playoff spot.

We'll see where they sit at Christmas after a pretty tough stretch (9 of their next 12 vs. playoff teams including games against SJS, BOS, LAK, STL, CHI, PHX, and DET).
Missing Bozak and Bolland for a good chunk may have played into that a bit.

Dr Quincy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 08:50 AM
  #320
Delicious Dangles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,097
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
The thing is, the Leafs aren't really defying anything. They're a mediocre even strength team in terms of results (only +2 in GF/GA) and after their hot start they've been a .500 team over the last 6 weeks despite having a pretty soft schedule. 8-8-3 in their last 19 and only 7 of those games were against teams currently in a playoff spot.

We'll see where they sit at Christmas after a pretty tough stretch (9 of their next 12 vs. playoff teams including games against SJS, BOS, LAK, STL, CHI, PHX, and DET).
While being decimated by injuries, especially up the middle.

The fact that we are .500 over that stretch only speaks to how good the Leafs are. Plus, nearly if not all teams have the same type of stretch if you manipulate the proper time periods over a season. We didn't only start playing this way 19 games ago, so why should that be the cut-off?

Funny how quickly "let's see where they are at American Thanksgiving" turns into "Let's see where they are at Christmas".

Quote:
Originally Posted by It Was 4 to 1 View Post
how do you defy something by proving it right?
Leafs were one of the best corsi teams, but one of the worst actual teams for a couple years, proving the theories based on corsi wrong, or at least not representative of the whole subset.

Delicious Dangles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 09:41 AM
  #321
Hammer Time
Registered User
 
Hammer Time's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,545
vCash: 533
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
Are the Leafs the only club sort of defying the corsi principle? If there was some comparisons, we could hope to identify a common denominator
The Bruins often did better than their Corsi (such as in their Cup winning year 2010-11). Chara (controlling shot quality), and Thomas (stopping a historic number of shots) were the biggest contributing factors. Nashville with Weber/Suter/Rinne was another good example.

I think a lot of people are calling the Leafs to flop mainly because they don't think Reimer/Bernier are as good as what the Bruins or Preds had, and the PK has already started to drop (getting Bozak back should help a ton though). Even if you look at shot location like some posters in this thread have, they're still giving up more shots from the prime scoring areas than they get, so shot quality doesn't explain everything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delicious Dangles View Post
While being decimated by injuries, especially up the middle.

The fact that we are .500 over that stretch only speaks to how good the Leafs are. Plus, nearly if not all teams have the same type of stretch if you manipulate the proper time periods over a season. We didn't only start playing this way 19 games ago, so why should that be the cut-off?

Funny how quickly "let's see where they are at American Thanksgiving" turns into "Let's see where they are at Christmas".

Leafs were one of the best corsi teams, but one of the worst actual teams for a couple years, proving the theories based on corsi wrong, or at least not representative of the whole subset.
To me, they're more the exception that proves the rule. Corsi is supposed to represent a team's ability to dominate the scoring chance battle at even strength - so by definition, you can "defy" it by getting extremely good goaltending or great special teams. In '10 the Leafs had a (literally) last-place PP, a last-place PK, and Toskala/Monster in net.

The Leafs have actually gotten off fairly easily in the past month (only two "great" opponents - PIT and BOS. Both games that had a great 20 minutes and got beaten heavily in the rest of the game). You can only play who you're against on the ice, but still, that raises some question marks. The Leafs haven't beaten a playoff team without going to shootout since Pittsburgh on Oct. 26. They've also lost two out of three to last-place Buffalo, which has 6 wins total.

On Tuesday they get the Sharks, and starting on the 8th they have five in a row against contenders. If they can put up 60 minute efforts and get a few wins over contenders, they're probably a great team. But if not, then they're just an average team in this league that can beat any non-playoff team but falls flat against the real elites of the league.


Last edited by Hammer Time: 11-30-2013 at 09:59 AM.
Hammer Time is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 11:40 AM
  #322
bobbyquarles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 62
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delicious Dangles View Post
While being decimated by injuries, especially up the middle.

The fact that we are .500 over that stretch only speaks to how good the Leafs are. Plus, nearly if not all teams have the same type of stretch if you manipulate the proper time periods over a season. We didn't only start playing this way 19 games ago, so why should that be the cut-off?

Funny how quickly "let's see where they are at American Thanksgiving" turns into "Let's see where they are at Christmas".


Leafs were one of the best corsi teams, but one of the worst actual teams for a couple years, proving the theories based on corsi wrong, or at least not representative of the whole subset.
If losing guys like Bolland and Bozak "devastates" your team, you're not a good team.

Also goaltending is the part you're referring to that Corsi doesn't capture.

bobbyquarles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 11:41 AM
  #323
TieClark
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,023
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyquarles View Post
If losing guys like Bolland and Bozak "devastates" your team, you're not a good team.

Also goaltending is the part you're referring to that Corsi doesn't capture.
The PK went from 2nd to 20th last night... Probably lower now. Bozak and Bolland both kill penalties

TieClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 01:16 PM
  #324
Micklebot
Registered User
 
Micklebot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 4,611
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TieClark View Post
The PK went from 2nd to 20th last night... Probably lower now. Bozak and Bolland both kill penalties
I can see Bozak being an issue because of faceoffs, but when you've got Kulemin, Van Reimsdyk and McClement all ahead of the 2 of the in SH toi/G, and a guy like Raymond in the same ballpark, the loss shouldn't be the end of the world. I'd guess goaltending has more to do with it. The only caveat is that the team no longer has the depth if one of the reg penalty killers is in the box.

Micklebot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2013, 03:07 PM
  #325
Dr Quincy
Registered User
 
Dr Quincy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Country: United States
Posts: 15,356
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyquarles View Post
If losing guys like Bolland and Bozak "devastates" your team, you're not a good team.

Also goaltending is the part you're referring to that Corsi doesn't capture.
Replacing 2 of your top 3 centers with AHLers has a big impact. I don't know if anyone has done a study, but I'd say that would have a more negative impact on a team's winning than being outshot does.

Dr Quincy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:39 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.