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13-14 Prospects Thread Version XIX: Leafs in the WJC.

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Old
11-30-2013, 09:18 AM
  #376
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I don't disagree here that you want offensive progression. I think his ceiling will take a lot longer to achieve, if he ever does.

He's very raw. Perhaps a lot more raw then most thought, even the Leafs. You always want that progression in the stats line and it hasn't been there for Gauthier.

I understand that it's pretty much the only thing you can probably do as a fan is watch the stats line, but for someone like Gauthier it really doesn't do him justice. I can only suggest watching him play, one way or another, in order to really see how good he is.

He's got all the tools right now to be a very good NHLer in a couple years. We'll see how versatile his tool box can be.

Since he's a first round prospect though, the expectations of him being more than just a McClement clone is warranted. I do hope his offensive game goes to another level in the 2nd half of the season.
Obviously most of us, read the box scores. I have seen Verhaeghe play, easier to watch OHL games. But most of us have seen them from training camp, and the game here and there in the meantime. I personally don't see the offensive upside in Gauthier, we can agree or disagree in this. It's almost like Joe Colborne. I see some vision, but no finish. He's more of a playmaker than scorer. It was obvious early on in prospects camp Verhaeghe had more top 6 potential.

It is early, but the vast majority of times players in their post draft year's explode offensively. I think we will be having this discussion all year. If Gauthier does not score, he better be the best defensive fwd in the QMJHL this year.

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11-30-2013, 09:29 AM
  #377
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It is early, but the vast majority of times players in their post draft year's explode offensively. I think we will be having this discussion all year. If Gauthier does not score, he better be the best defensive fwd in the QMJHL this year.
I only watch (live) about one or two Q games a month, especially if a prospect comes to town, but I can easily say he's one of the best defensive forwards in the entire Q. I think it's also safe to say he's one of the better defensive forwards in the CHL.

Perhaps that's not first round material in your mind, and that's fine. I think most, including professional scouts, see the huge potential in Gauthier because of that. His toolbox is all ready very good.

Development will be key for Gauthier's offensive game. Like I said earlier, he's pretty raw with the puck around the net. He started his CHL career later that most, so I'm sure everyone thinks once he fills out and gets additional development that his selection in the top 30 will be warranted.

I definitely agree that his offensive game has to get better by the end of the year though.

I guess I'm optimistic because I really like Gauthier's work ethic on the ice, and that usually means a good work ethic off the ice.

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11-30-2013, 10:57 AM
  #378
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I haven't followed this thread for about a week because I've been waiting for the conversation to change.

It's like we've been hitting copy-paste for a month. What else is there new to say about Gauthier? Christ.

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11-30-2013, 11:15 AM
  #379
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I haven't followed this thread for about a week because I've been waiting for the conversation to change.

It's like we've been hitting copy-paste for a month. What else is there new to say about Gauthier? Christ.
This is a recording, but when Gauthier scores his next goal, it will be against a bottom feeder, so it actually shouldn't count in the statistics.

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11-30-2013, 12:05 PM
  #380
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On the topic of Centers, Sam Carrick has quietly made some big strides in his development this year with the Marlies.

19gp 2G 5A 7pts Team leading +9 40PIM

Really, just what any farm system needs. A 5th round pick that a lot of people might not have even considered for the top 30 prospects turns into a quality player. If he keeps developing as he has this season so far, he'll find a regular job in the NHL.

Oh hey, and now that i sift through the player list, it looks like Sparks is dominating the ECHL. I haven't watched him play those games obviously, but it's a good sign.
Been saying for a while, very under-rated prospect. Never going to be a top six forward, but has potential to be a bottom six guy who plays a very gritty, in your face type of game. Can play at center or on the wing, so has some versatility. Strikes me as a guy that Carlyle will like down the road.

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11-30-2013, 12:11 PM
  #381
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Obviously most of us, read the box scores. I have seen Verhaeghe play, easier to watch OHL games. But most of us have seen them from training camp, and the game here and there in the meantime. I personally don't see the offensive upside in Gauthier, we can agree or disagree in this. It's almost like Joe Colborne. I see some vision, but no finish. He's more of a playmaker than scorer. It was obvious early on in prospects camp Verhaeghe had more top 6 potential.

It is early, but the vast majority of times players in their post draft year's explode offensively. I think we will be having this discussion all year. If Gauthier does not score, he better be the best defensive fwd in the QMJHL this year.
That's not true at all.
Number of examples of players actually regressing in terms of stats post draft year. Thinking back to Kadri, I recall him struggling when going back to junior at the start of the season, but picked it up as season progressed.

Again though, can't always read into a players development or his contribution based on stats and numbers alone. You don't ignore them, but at the same time you can't base everything on stats.

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11-30-2013, 12:12 PM
  #382
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Forget about development, Gauthier is regressing offensively this year.

I don't care how good he is defensively, if he can't produce at the minor league level in the highest scoring league, he will not be anything more than paul gaustad in the NHL.

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11-30-2013, 12:28 PM
  #383
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I haven't followed this thread for about a week because I've been waiting for the conversation to change.

It's like we've been hitting copy-paste for a month. What else is there new to say about Gauthier? Christ.
Agreed. If people are just going to repeat themselves over and over about Gauthier, can we at least make a separate thread for him? Would rather not have to sift through 10 posts arguing about Gauthier (usually the same people) before getting to one with relevant information on another prospect.

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11-30-2013, 12:33 PM
  #384
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No points for Gauthier again last night, -1, and against a sub .500 team.

No defence or offence, but it's early, let's give him another year.
Noticed he was the game's 2nd star. Must have played well. Offensive numbers aren't where you'd like to see them in his post draft year, but it appears he's light years ahead if his peers defensively.

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11-30-2013, 12:36 PM
  #385
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Noticed he was the game's 2nd star. Must have played well. Offensive numbers aren't where you'd like to see them in his post draft year, but it appears he's light years ahead if his peers defensively.
Not where you'd like them to be is an understatement. He has been awful offensively.

Said it before the draft and I'll say it again, His hands and vision scream sub 3rd liner

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11-30-2013, 03:27 PM
  #386
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if you look at the numbers.... brown is at 2 ppg, similar to bolland, so he might turn into a 3rd line guy with 2nd line potential one day, Ive never heard of any1 being "ok" in the chl and turning into a great nhl producer... the guy is going to be a 4c borderline 3c imo

people said the same **** about colborne, that "i think he will produce more in the nhl then he does in the ahl" that argument is garbbbbb, if you cant tear it up against 16 year olds... how are you going to be even noticed playing against people double your age and strength? I was optimistic going into the season about him, but im kind of being disappointed honestly, freddy g needs to get the goals going here...

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11-30-2013, 03:46 PM
  #387
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if you look at the numbers.... brown is at 2 ppg, similar to bolland, so he might turn into a 3rd line guy with 2nd line potential one day, Ive never heard of any1 being "ok" in the chl and turning into a great nhl producer... the guy is going to be a 4c borderline 3c imo

people said the same **** about colborne, that "i think he will produce more in the nhl then he does in the ahl" that argument is garbbbbb, if you cant tear it up against 16 year olds... how are you going to be even noticed playing against people double your age and strength? I was optimistic going into the season about him, but im kind of being disappointed honestly, freddy g needs to get the goals going here...
I wouldn't really compare any current CHLers to the 2003-2006 Knights because some of the numbers put up by those players were ridiculous.

Like we probably won't see many teams like that again tbh.

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11-30-2013, 04:02 PM
  #388
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I wouldn't really compare any current CHLers to the 2003-2006 Knights because some of the numbers put up by those players were ridiculous.

Like we probably won't see many teams like that again tbh.
it was just the first one that popped in my mind, kadri was about 1.6 ppg in the o, now hes about a .75 ppg player, holland had similar numbers to kadri in junior, and hes going to likely be a 3c as well, say what you will, but freddy g isnt in a good spot right now

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11-30-2013, 08:13 PM
  #389
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Verhaeghe passes his career high for assists with his 27th tonight, in 40 less games. Hell of a junior player.

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11-30-2013, 08:19 PM
  #390
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How good could Verhaeghe possibly be? His numbers are extremely impressive.

Is he benefitting from a very strong team? (I have no idea)

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11-30-2013, 08:29 PM
  #391
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How good could Verhaeghe possibly be? His numbers are extremely impressive.

Is he benefitting from a very strong team? (I have no idea)
No, Niagara is awful. His linemate Perlini is draft eligible this year and looks like he's going to go anywhere from 10 to 25, but IMO Verhaeghe has been the better player.

I really like Carter as a prospect because he's not one-dimensional like a Connor Brown. He's a good playmaker, decent hands, hard and accurate shot, and knows how to play defense too. His only area of weakness that stands out is his overwhelmingly average skating, which he's working on.

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11-30-2013, 08:33 PM
  #392
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No, Niagara is awful. His linemate Perlini is draft eligible this year and looks like he's going to go anywhere from 10 to 25, but IMO Verhaeghe has been the better player.

I really like Carter as a prospect because he's not one-dimensional like a Connor Brown. He's a good playmaker, decent hands, hard and accurate shot, and knows how to play defense too. His only area of weakness that stands out is his overwhelmingly average skating, which he's working on.
Good to hear. Thanks for the info.

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11-30-2013, 09:05 PM
  #393
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Verhaghe and Brown each with just an assist tonight.

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12-01-2013, 07:00 AM
  #394
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Forget about development, Gauthier is regressing offensively this year.

I don't care how good he is defensively, if he can't produce at the minor league level in the highest scoring league, he will not be anything more than paul gaustad in the NHL.
I can't even count the number of times that it has been shown that the OHL is the higher scoring league. The idea of the Q being the high scoring league of the CHL hasn't been true in a long time.

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12-01-2013, 07:11 AM
  #395
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No, Niagara is awful. His linemate Perlini is draft eligible this year and looks like he's going to go anywhere from 10 to 25, but IMO Verhaeghe has been the better player.

I really like Carter as a prospect because he's not one-dimensional like a Connor Brown. He's a good playmaker, decent hands, hard and accurate shot, and knows how to play defense too. His only area of weakness that stands out is his overwhelmingly average skating, which he's working on.
Based on what I've heard and what type of game he plays it's hard to not see the parallels between him and matt Stajan. That would be great for a 3rd round pick don't get me wrong, but it's nothing to get really hyped up about. I'm assuming you've watched him play quite a bit so what kind of player do you think he resembles? I like connor brown more as a prospect because IMO he has the higher upside of the two.

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12-01-2013, 09:57 AM
  #396
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I'd be happy if he can be a jay mcclement clone, which doesn't mean he has to rip up the q. Tbh I didn't want us to take him, I wanted morgan klimchuk. I like going for upside in the first round and klimchuks got a lot.. Calgary got one heck of a player there at 28.
Not to pick a fight, or seem rude, but what would you have expected out of Klimchuck? He's a small winger with 2nd line upside. His PPG isn't great, but very OK. Just ahead of Gauthier, who brings WAY more to the table. There isn't another player in that range available to us that is worth much more.

As I said a few days ago, the fan favorite was Shinkaruk and he's shat the bed big time this year. He has seen steady decline in his game since his amazing 50 goal year.

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Forget about development, Gauthier is regressing offensively this year.

I don't care how good he is defensively, if he can't produce at the minor league level in the highest scoring league, he will not be anything more than paul gaustad in the NHL.
That'd be great. I expect something similar in offensive terms, but more potential defensively. I don't know why people undervalue that.

Just for perspective of ones predictions or expectations, I'm gonna ask that people tell me what they thinks is a likely projection of a player they would have taken, all hindsight in full use. Who was better at 21? Or if you think it would've been great to trade back, please tell me, again in full hindsight, who you'd have aimed for and what you expect their potential to be.

I don't see ANY stars after Mantha. None. I see 2nd liners at best, maybe a lot of busts. I don't think this draft will be very fortuitous for many in the long run.

I'll start by saying I think Gauthier has an absolute top side of offense at about 20g and 50 pts, with about a 30% of ever reaching it. But I think his bottom is a 25-30pt 3C who gets some PK time and secondary important minutes, with about a 50% of the bottom end of his projection. I think his likely projection is a 30-40 point 3C who plays near 20 mins and leads the PK and is crucial piece to stopping high offense type players.

I also really don't think this a year you reach for the stars. I think this is gonna be a very ordinary year for drafting in the 1st round.

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12-01-2013, 10:04 AM
  #397
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Agreed. If people are just going to repeat themselves over and over about Gauthier, can we at least make a separate thread for him? Would rather not have to sift through 10 posts arguing about Gauthier (usually the same people) before getting to one with relevant information on another prospect.
FTR, I support this idea. I do contribute to the debate, but I can see why some want nothing to do with it now. It's is getting old, from both sides.

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12-01-2013, 10:32 AM
  #398
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Not to pick a fight, or seem rude, but what would you have expected out of Klimchuck? He's a small winger with 2nd line upside. His PPG isn't great, but very OK. Just ahead of Gauthier, who brings WAY more to the table. There isn't another player in that range available to us that is worth much more.

As I said a few days ago, the fan favorite was Shinkaruk and he's shat the bed big time this year. He has seen steady decline in his game since his amazing 50 goal draft year season
My opinion regarding whl players may be a bit biased because I see them play a lot more than any other player in other chl leagues but klimchuk has everything it takes to become a perrenial 2nd line winger. I think his game will translate well at the nhl level and here's why; he's a deceptively fast, evasive skater and uses that to get into areas where he can open up space for himself to get off his NHL calibre shot. He competes in all 3 zones, goes into the dirty areas, drives the net hard, and hes a very effeciant puck possession player despite his size. He's a Patrick sharp clone IMO, and look at what he's done for Chicago. He's a core piece to their success. Points aren't everything. Using point totals to project a players future at the nhl level are better than nothing but unless you watch that player frequently, they don't tell the whole story.

As for shrinkaruk, I never liked him. He's far to inconsistent and his game won't translate well at the nhl level. He's easily neutralized off of the puck, takes many nights off, and shy's away from physical play.. Think a very poor mans phil kessel. He'll be a future tweener with defensive liabilities.

Gauthier could turn out to be a great 3rd line center for us and could be an important cog to our teams future. I'm not going to be upset if he turns out to be a bigger jay mcclement, id be rather excited actually. But just keep your eye on klimchuk, calgary has a potential steal there.

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12-01-2013, 10:32 AM
  #399
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Not to pick a fight, or seem rude, but what would you have expected out of Klimchuck? He's a small winger with 2nd line upside. His PPG isn't great, but very OK. Just ahead of Gauthier, who brings WAY more to the table. There isn't another player in that range available to us that is worth much more.

As I said a few days ago, the fan favorite was Shinkaruk and he's shat the bed big time this year. He has seen steady decline in his game since his amazing 50 goal year.

That'd be great. I expect something similar in offensive terms, but more potential defensively. I don't know why people undervalue that.

Just for perspective of ones predictions or expectations, I'm gonna ask that people tell me what they thinks is a likely projection of a player they would have taken, all hindsight in full use. Who was better at 21? Or if you think it would've been great to trade back, please tell me, again in full hindsight, who you'd have aimed for and what you expect their potential to be.

I don't see ANY stars after Mantha. None. I see 2nd liners at best, maybe a lot of busts. I don't think this draft will be very fortuitous for many in the long run.

I'll start by saying I think Gauthier has an absolute top side of offense at about 20g and 50 pts, with about a 30% of ever reaching it. But I think his bottom is a 25-30pt 3C who gets some PK time and secondary important minutes, with about a 50% of the bottom end of his projection. I think his likely projection is a 30-40 point 3C who plays near 20 mins and leads the PK and is crucial piece to stopping high offense type players.

I also really don't think this a year you reach for the stars. I think this is gonna be a very ordinary year for drafting in the 1st round.

Not to encourage a fight, but it really is too soon to judge, but it is not to soon to start monitoring.

Like looking at the standings, what the team is on December 1st. isn't relevant to what it is April 1st., but it is relevant as a measurement. Like some coaches do a 5 game block for checking progress.

Anyway, the measurement is not who would have been a better choice from picks 21-28, it is who would be the better choice of every available player.

Limititing it to 21-28 would be like saying the Leafs got the best player selected in the first round from position 22nd. to 24th. in the Biggs draft. Well, how about Saad, Jenner, Gibson, ... those players were available.

As soon as you limit your evaluation you are distorting the results. Just exclude anything that makes the pick look bad and claim victory.

At the other side, the Biggs pick (for argument sake using Biggs) who ever was picked 1-21 is irrelevant. The Leafs should have traded up to ... isn't part of evaluating who was available. Heck, when you do that you can fall into the trap of "they traded a 2nd. round pick in order to pick that player?" situation.

Well, in one scenario, they actually did trade up so you can compare, but you can't really compare something that might not have been possible. At what point would you stop ... they could have traded up 2 spots, 4 spots, 21 spots ...?

Anyway, enough rambling, Gauthier was my pick at 21, I hoped he'd be there, and some people thought he might have gone earlier.

However, my hope was that we had only seen the surface of Gauthier. First year player, facing tough opponents in a defensive role (I know have debated this but we've read scouting reports saying it was so, and he was up for best defensive player in the Q so ), and I still expect that his offense will improve.

Would you be fine with 714 NHL games out of that pick? How about 1417 games?

Chad Kilger of the Leafs very own Luke Richardson.

1417 is more than 1378 (Sakic), it is a lot more than 967 (LeClair).

Anyway, we know the draft is a crap shoot, even top 5 picks are not guaranteed.

I'd even speculate some top 5 picks are given more opportunities just because they were top 5, and really there must be something the scouts saw right? If he was a 4th. rounder and was playing like crap you don't even consider offering a contract, but a top 5 pick? I'm curious about how many top 5 picks are ever just let expire without getting that offer?

I'd be okay if Gauther turned into a NHL player, but if it's a Kilger type of player you just say it wasn't a wasted pick because you did get something out of it, but you don't really hold it up as great drafting.

And sometimes it is just the beating the odds, like the Leafs 2006 draft.

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12-01-2013, 10:36 AM
  #400
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My opinion regarding whl players may be a bit biased because I see them play a lot more than any other player in other chl leagues but klimchuk has everything it takes to become a perrenial 2nd line winger. I think his game will translate well at the nhl level and here's why; he's a deceptively fast, evasive skater and uses that to get into areas where he can open up space for himself to get off his NHL calibre shot. He competes in all 3 zones, goes into the dirty areas, drives the net hard, and hes a very effeciant puck possession player despite his size. He's a Patrick sharp clone IMO, and look at what he's done for Chicago. He's a core piece to their success.

As for shrinkaruk, I never liked him. He's far to inconsistent and his game won't translate well at the nhl level. He's easily neutralized off of the puck, takes many nights off, and shy's away from physical play.. Think a very poor mans phil kessel. He'll be a future tweener with defensive liabilities.

Gauthier could turn out to be a great 3rd line center for us and could be an important cog to our teams future. I'm not going to be upset if he turns out to be a bigger jay mcclement, id be rather excited actually. But just keep your eye on klimchuk, calgary has a potential steal there.
What's up with Petan and Bjorkstrand?

After watching Gallagher last night make the Leafs look like chumps, is this another small forward worth watching?

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