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Cheer for the Islander tank or not?

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Old
11-30-2013, 09:17 PM
  #151
kenfury
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Right now the Islanders odds for final standings are; 15% - 2nd overall, 17% - 3rd overall, 16% - 4th, 13% - 5th overall. That is a 51% chance of a pick between 2 and 5 coming from the Vanek trade and a 86% chance of Buffalo having either 1 or 2 overall on their own due to standings.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...Islanders.html

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Old
11-30-2013, 09:48 PM
  #152
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NYI can't give up a top-5 pick solely on the potential of getting McDavid next year.

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11-30-2013, 10:07 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason View Post
NYI can't give up a top-5 pick solely on the potential of getting McDavid next year.
I agree.

I think what is more likely to happen is that they get a 2015 1st out of dealing Vanek.

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11-30-2013, 10:17 PM
  #154
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Agreed that the Isles won't give up a high pick but if they finish in the 6-10 range I can see them giving it up. I am rooting for the Isles to finish ~7th overall and that pick I can see them giving us.

Ekblad/Reinhart and Ritchie/Bennett or Draisaitl? Yes please!

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12-02-2013, 09:34 AM
  #155
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They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade

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12-02-2013, 09:47 AM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade

I think it was pretty smart. They're not likely to improve drastically in one year and next years pick is a shot at McDavid.

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12-02-2013, 09:48 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade
Then we just get it in 2015 instead, which is a better draft pool supposedly. I don't think the Islanders can turn it around in one year, so they will suck in 2015 as well.

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12-02-2013, 09:49 AM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade
Why is it a dumb clause? It was fairly negotiated, and makes a lot of sense considering the deal as a whole. The Isles gave up a lot to get Vanek--especially when one considers that Vanek and Moulson had strikingly similar numbers over recent and sufficient sample size--so they wanted some protection.

If you don't like it, fine. But it's not dumb.

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12-02-2013, 09:59 AM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade
Or it gives us McDavid and it's the most brilliant clause ever put into a trade.

Right now, I would bank on the Isles losing Vanek to FA. It's gonna be hard to do that and then improve.

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12-02-2013, 10:06 AM
  #160
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chances of the Isles trying to get their pick back?

let's say they're ****ing horrible this year finish near us in the standings but want their pick back because they expect to be just as bad next season.

Strome for the first?

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12-02-2013, 10:06 AM
  #161
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They probably dont give us a top 5 pick this year, but next years draft is better IMO as of right now. Its more than just McDavid. I want as many 1st's in 2015 as possible. I felt the same last season but for some reason Regier did not.

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12-02-2013, 10:39 AM
  #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
They're not giving their pick up this year...so we have a lot of false hope. Dumbest clause I've seen in awhile in a trade
It'd hardly be a bad thing if they didn't give up their pick this year, that's the point

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12-02-2013, 10:50 AM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
They probably dont give us a top 5 pick this year, but next years draft is better IMO as of right now. Its more than just McDavid. I want as many 1st's in 2015 as possible. I felt the same last season but for some reason Regier did not.
Or everyone feels that way, and are holding tight to their 2015 1st.

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12-02-2013, 12:44 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
They probably dont give us a top 5 pick this year, but next years draft is better IMO as of right now. Its more than just McDavid. I want as many 1st's in 2015 as possible. I felt the same last season but for some reason Regier did not.
You have to understand that it is very difficult to acquire future 1sts, considering there is so much uncertainty.

GM's just simply don't do it.

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12-02-2013, 01:56 PM
  #165
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Even forgetting about McDavid, it's a win for us either way. I'm happy with their 1st either year, to be honest.

Let's face it - this is Buffalo - we're not getting McDavid even if we finish last next year. In the Crosby lottery, we were one of only 4 teams with 3 balls in the lottery. We had just as much chance at Crosby as Pitt, and the odds said we should have gotten a top-5 pick. Instead, we got #13 and took Zagrapan.

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Old
12-02-2013, 02:05 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
You have to understand that it is very difficult to acquire future 1sts, considering there is so much uncertainty.

GM's just simply don't do it.
It should also be noted that there is currently one NHL team with even a sniff at multiple 1st round picks in the 2015 draft, and that's us. Other than the Islanders, not one team has even put the possibility of their 2015 1st rounder into play.

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12-02-2013, 02:06 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
You have to understand that it is very difficult to acquire future 1sts, considering there is so much uncertainty.

GM's just simply don't do it.
In the NFL future picks are worth less, I would think its the same in the NHL. A 2014 1st round pick does not equal a 2015 1st round pick, its worth less.

Its just impossible to predict the future that far ahead, but right now a team could make a very good prediction where they may finish. Even predicting what a 16 year old will be in a couple years is hard.

So IMO I would think GM's would want the pick they know the most about rather than take a risk. I love what Regier did with Vanek. The Islanders will not give up a top pick, thats exactly why they did that. They arent going to predict where they finish in 2015 draft. I think Regier was fine with any scenario because he was committed to tanking a couple years.

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12-02-2013, 02:28 PM
  #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
In the NFL future picks are worth less, I would think its the same in the NHL. A 2014 1st round pick does not equal a 2015 1st round pick, its worth less.
Why? The NFL and NHL drafts work very differently and their picks are valued very differently. In the NFL draft picks jump immediately into the league. Picks are generally worth more than actual players. It's just such a radically different market that drawing any sort of parallels is misguided at best.

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12-02-2013, 02:35 PM
  #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
In the NFL future picks are worth less, I would think its the same in the NHL. A 2014 1st round pick does not equal a 2015 1st round pick, its worth less.

Its just impossible to predict the future that far ahead, but right now a team could make a very good prediction where they may finish. Even predicting what a 16 year old will be in a couple years is hard.

So IMO I would think GM's would want the pick they know the most about rather than take a risk. I love what Regier did with Vanek. The Islanders will not give up a top pick, thats exactly why they did that. They arent going to predict where they finish in 2015 draft. I think Regier was fine with any scenario because he was committed to tanking a couple years.
It's not the same in the NHL. The NFL requires draft picks to contribute immediately, the NHL isn't anything like that. Trading a future first round draft picks almost never happens in the NHL because it can blow up in your face massively. Things are different in the Islanders case, because it'd be a known very good (top 5) pick vs an unknown, but in almost every other case the unknown is favored. It's certainly nothing like the NFL.

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12-02-2013, 02:43 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
(1) In the NFL future picks are worth less, I would think its the same in the NHL. (2) A 2014 1st round pick does not equal a 2015 1st round pick, its worth less.

Its just impossible to predict the future that far ahead, but right now a team could make a very good prediction where they may finish. Even predicting what a 16 year old will be in a couple years is hard.

So IMO I would think GM's would want the pick they know the most about rather than take a risk. (3) I love what Regier did with Vanek. (4) The Islanders will not give up a top pick, thats exactly why they did that. They arent going to predict where they finish in 2015 draft. (5) I think Regier was fine with any scenario because he was committed to tanking a couple years.
In the order of the bolded:
(1) Why?
(2) Why? Simply because a known draft position is preferred over an less known future draft position?
(3)&(4) Agreed.
(5) yes, but more importantly, an equivalent player (Moulson) who can be flipped or singed, AND a 1st-rounder, regardless of year, is a steal for an expiring UFA in Vanek, regardless of whether that 1st rounder was '14 or '15. Sabre tank really didn't matter...

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12-02-2013, 02:46 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
It's not the same in the NHL. The NFL requires draft picks to contribute immediately, the NHL isn't anything like that. Trading a future first round draft picks almost never happens in the NHL because it can blow up in your face massively. Things are different in the Islanders case, because it'd be a known very good (top 5) pick vs an unknown, but in almost every other case the unknown is favored. It's certainly nothing like the NFL.
If you know you have a top 10 pick in 2014, you think a 2015 unknown 1st would be worth more?

I dont see how anyone would think that way. Thats a huge risk. Unless of course you plan on being bad, like the Sabres did before Regier was fired.

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12-02-2013, 02:51 PM
  #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
In the NFL future picks are worth less, I would think its the same in the NHL. A 2014 1st round pick does not equal a 2015 1st round pick, its worth less.

Its just impossible to predict the future that far ahead, but right now a team could make a very good prediction where they may finish. Even predicting what a 16 year old will be in a couple years is hard.

So IMO I would think GM's would want the pick they know the most about rather than take a risk. I love what Regier did with Vanek. The Islanders will not give up a top pick, thats exactly why they did that. They arent going to predict where they finish in 2015 draft. I think Regier was fine with any scenario because he was committed to tanking a couple years.
This entire post is wrong and anyone who posts on these boards should be able to understand that the NFL and NHL are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the draft.

NHL teams rarely trade 1st rounders period and trading picks 2 years in advance is a huge no-no and almost never happens. Add in that 2015 has multiple potential franchise players and the trade looks even worse for the Islanders.

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12-02-2013, 03:00 PM
  #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian_griffin View Post
In the order of the bolded:
(1) Why?
(2) Why? Simply because a known draft position is preferred over an less known future draft position?
(3)&(4) Agreed.
(5) yes, but more importantly, an equivalent player (Moulson) who can be flipped or singed, AND a 1st-rounder, regardless of year, is a steal for an expiring UFA in Vanek, regardless of whether that 1st rounder was '14 or '15. Sabre tank really didn't matter...
1) Its been like for years in the NFL. I have seen teams trade next years 1st round pick for a current year high 2nd round pick. But those trades only happen during the draft.

2) Yes. If you have a top 10 pick I cant see how anyone would trade that pick for unknown future 1st. That would be a huge risk. Its like the Sabres getting the #2 pick this year but trading it for a 2015 1st. There isnt a person here that would call that a good move, not even me and I want more 2015 picks.

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12-02-2013, 03:01 PM
  #174
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Originally Posted by Moskau View Post
This entire post is wrong and anyone who posts on these boards should be able to understand that the NFL and NHL are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the draft.

NHL teams rarely trade 1st rounders period and trading picks 2 years in advance is a huge no-no and almost never happens. Add in that 2015 has multiple potential franchise players and the trade looks even worse for the Islanders.
I think its interesting some of the replies. So you would trade the Sabres top 5 pick this year for an unknown 2015 1st?

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12-02-2013, 03:03 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
I think its interesting some of the replies. So you would trade the Sabres top 5 pick this year for an unknown 2015 1st?
What does this have to do with the original point that teams are reluctant to move future 1st round picks?

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