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Corsi, shot quality, and the Toronto Maple Leafs

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Old
11-30-2013, 05:21 PM
  #326
WarriorofTime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Quincy View Post
Missing Bozak and Bolland for a good chunk may have played into that a bit.
Bolland missing games should have been expected though. I know what happened was kind of a fluke thing, but if it weren't that it would likely be something else (like his back).

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11-30-2013, 06:40 PM
  #327
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Originally Posted by Dr Quincy View Post
Replacing 2 of your top 3 centers with AHLers has a big impact. I don't know if anyone has done a study, but I'd say that would have a more negative impact on a team's winning than being outshot does.
It's not one or the other, it's both. Having to play AHLers at centre makes it more likely you'll get outshot or outplayed, which in turn makes it more likely you'll lose games.

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12-01-2013, 01:30 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Dr Quincy View Post
Replacing 2 of your top 3 centers with AHLers has a big impact. I don't know if anyone has done a study, but I'd say that would have a more negative impact on a team's winning than being outshot does.
Ok. If Bozak and Bolland are 2 of your top 3 centers, you're not a good team.

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12-01-2013, 02:31 PM
  #329
hatterson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyquarles View Post
Ok. If Bozak and Bolland are 2 of your top 3 centers, you're not a good team.
Really?

A center lineup of Crosby, Bozak, Bolland would mean you're not a good team? Or even Backstrom, Bozak, Bolland.

Bolland is a great 3rd line center and Bozak is a very solid 2nd liner.

The Leafs just don't currently have a true #1 to make that happen. Kadri might get there soon, but he's not yet, hence the issue.

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Old
12-01-2013, 03:58 PM
  #330
Michael Gary Scott
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Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
Are the Leafs the only club sort of defying the corsi principle? If there was some comparisons, we could hope to identify a common denominator
We arent defying corsi principle. At least not anymore. The day of reckoning that all advanced stat prophets spoke of has arrived. But yet no one wants to take these stats seriously.

People that look at these stats and are critics, generally believe that these stats are meant to be the end all be all statistics. Theyre not. Theyre a useful tool for judging performance. You can draw clear conclusions from them but this isnt quite moneyball. Not yet anyway.

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Old
12-01-2013, 08:02 PM
  #331
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Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
Really?

A center lineup of Crosby, Bozak, Bolland would mean you're not a good team? Or even Backstrom, Bozak, Bolland.

Bolland is a great 3rd line center and Bozak is a very solid 2nd liner.

The Leafs just don't currently have a true #1 to make that happen. Kadri might get there soon, but he's not yet, hence the issue.
Bozak is a very solid 2nd liner? What world do you live in?

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12-01-2013, 08:36 PM
  #332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyquarles View Post
Bozak is a very solid 2nd liner? What world do you live in?
A 40-50 pt, penalty killing player who (until this year) is solid in the faceoff dot is a solid 2nd line player.

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12-02-2013, 12:46 AM
  #333
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Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
A 40-50 pt, penalty killing player who (until this year) is solid in the faceoff dot is a solid 2nd line player.
But he's only a 40-50 point guy because he gets first line ice time at even strength and on the power play, and plays with first line caliber players like Phil Kessel.

Put him on a second line with second line ice time and he's lucky to sniff 40 points.

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12-03-2013, 04:17 AM
  #334
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
But he's only a 40-50 point guy because he gets first line ice time at even strength and on the power play, and plays with first line caliber players like Phil Kessel.

Put him on a second line with second line ice time and he's lucky to sniff 40 points.
I'm not even a fan of the Leafs, but allow me to argue in his defense.

The fact that Bozak still gets first line minutes is a testament of how good a player he actually is. He may not be a top line centre on most teams, but he is a good 1b centreman and a very good second line centre IMO. The reasons have already been given by a few posters: He is excellent on the PK, faceoffs, breakaways, shootouts, has a good shot and speed.

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Old
12-03-2013, 04:57 AM
  #335
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the rev wright- the corsi's are comin hoime to rooooooosssstttt.

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12-03-2013, 04:58 AM
  #336
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Originally Posted by Inflict View Post
I'm not even a fan of the Leafs, but allow me to argue in his defense.

The fact that Bozak still gets first line minutes is a testament of how good a player he actually is. He may not be a top line centre on most teams, but he is a good 1b centreman and a very good second line centre IMO. The reasons have already been given by a few posters: He is excellent on the PK, faceoffs, breakaways, shootouts, has a good shot and speed.
bozak is the most underrated leaf.

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12-03-2013, 11:15 PM
  #337
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Toronto now a .500 team and 16th in points %. Carlyle even said in a recent interview that they can't keep getting badly outshot every game.. Safe to say that they haven't found some magic formula for winning this sort of way (well, I guess they did, it's called out of this world goaltending, which isn't very sustainable). They need to pick it up or they may find themselves out of the playoffs, even playing in the East.

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12-04-2013, 07:31 AM
  #338
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Toronto now a .500 team and 16th in points %. Carlyle even said in a recent interview that they can't keep getting badly outshot every game.. Safe to say that they haven't found some magic formula for winning this sort of way (well, I guess they did, it's called out of this world goaltending, which isn't very sustainable). They need to pick it up or they may find themselves out of the playoffs, even playing in the East.
I suppose the rash of injuries have nothing to do with it, then..

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Old
12-04-2013, 08:44 AM
  #339
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I suppose the rash of injuries have nothing to do with it, then..
Bolland and Lupul being out with injuries is nothing too unexpected.

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12-04-2013, 08:56 AM
  #340
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Bolland and Lupul being out with injuries is nothing too unexpected.
Wow, corsi sure can predict a lot of outcomes reliably..

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12-04-2013, 10:46 AM
  #341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I suppose the rash of injuries have nothing to do with it, then..
A lot of teams are dealing with injuries.

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12-04-2013, 11:31 AM
  #342
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
A lot of teams are dealing with injuries.
Please show me a team that has missed all 3 of it's top 3 centers for several games... that's ignoring any other injuries the Leafs have had.

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12-04-2013, 11:34 AM
  #343
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Please show me a team that has missed all 3 of it's top 3 centers for several games... that's ignoring any other injuries the Leafs have had.
Not to mention a team where the top 3 are relatively so poor to start with.

The lack of center depth along with those injuries really gutted the Leafs middle.

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12-04-2013, 11:57 AM
  #344
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I suppose the rash of injuries have nothing to do with it, then..
I'm not a big CORSI supporter, but wouldn't you expect that their CORSI would be better without those injuries?

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12-04-2013, 12:05 PM
  #345
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I'm not a big CORSI supporter, but wouldn't you expect that their CORSI would be better without those injuries?
You would expect that but they were still being routinely outshot when healthy too.

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12-04-2013, 12:59 PM
  #346
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Not to mention a team where the top 3 are relatively so poor to start with.

The lack of center depth along with those injuries really gutted the Leafs middle.
Wouldn't that mean that the impact is less than it would be on a team with a higher end group top 3 centers? For example, if Pittsburg had to replace Malkin, Crosby and Sutter, it would likley create greater skill differential as the average AHL call-up is closer to Bozak, Bolland and Kadri than they are to Crosby Malkin and Sutter.

I do agree that injuries pilling up at the center position can have a exponential effect though.

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12-04-2013, 02:37 PM
  #347
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I suppose the rash of injuries have nothing to do with it, then..
No NHL team has a true talent PDO level of 1030 or greater. Not now and not for at least the last decade, if not longer.

So the regression was inevitable - injuries or not.


Last edited by Doctor No: 12-04-2013 at 04:28 PM. Reason: Flaming
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Old
12-04-2013, 03:14 PM
  #348
Michael Gary Scott
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Log yourself onto extra skater.com, and use their handy tool to sort the top 5 teams in fen wick for percentage. (FF%). Look at the top teams on the chart. Then mosie on over to tsn.ca, and look at the overall league standings. Notice anything there? Perhaps, some similarities?

Top 5 teams in FF% in all situations are all in the top 6 for points overall. Now that can't just be irony can it?

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12-04-2013, 04:22 PM
  #349
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Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post

So the regression was inevitable - injuries or not.
I don't even have a horse in this race except the one named skepticism (and for good reason).

Shot quality is definitely a factor. Injuries are a factor. Goaltending performance is an obvious factor.

How long have people been chanting the regression was inevitable mantra for the Leafs? All of last season and up until 5 games ago when the Leafs go into a bad stretch with a depleted team and now it is time for the "I told you so".

You'll have to do better than predictions like that if you want people to take "advanced" stats seriously.

Is there a correlation between shot attempts and shots on goal and possession to winning? I'm sure there is.. is it an all determining factor? I'm sure it isn't.


Last edited by Doctor No: 12-04-2013 at 04:29 PM. Reason: Report it next time. Don't respond to it.
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12-04-2013, 04:49 PM
  #350
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I don't even have a horse in this race except the one named skepticism (and for good reason).

Shot quality is definitely a factor. Injuries are a factor. Goaltending performance is an obvious factor.

How long have people been chanting the regression was inevitable mantra for the Leafs? All of last season and up until 5 games ago when the Leafs go into a bad stretch with a depleted team and now it is time for the "I told you so".

You'll have to do better than predictions like that if you want people to take "advanced" stats seriously.

Is there a correlation between shot attempts and shots on goal and possession to winning? I'm sure there is.. is it an all determining factor? I'm sure it isn't.
Yes there is for sure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Gary Scott View Post
Log yourself onto extra skater.com, and use their handy tool to sort the top 5 teams in fen wick for percentage. (FF%). Look at the top teams on the chart. Then mosie on over to tsn.ca, and look at the overall league standings. Notice anything there? Perhaps, some similarities?

Top 5 teams in FF% in all situations are all in the top 6 for points overall. Now that can't just be irony can it?
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...istics-fenwick

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