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Simulation of the remaining games

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:10 PM
  #1
JFB
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Simulation of the remaining games

Hello fellow Habs fans. I had too much time on my own, so I took the standings as of tonight (including game vs NYR) and I simulated the remaining of the NHL season 10,000 times. I wanted to see which teams would make the playoffs (with the probabilities), and who well likely face in playoffs. I used a statistical software named R, and my model had the following assumptions:

- For each game, each team has a 50% probability of winning.
- 20% probability of going to overtime (with 1 point to the loser).
- Tie-breaker is number of wins.
- Divisions champions are automatically seeded from 1st to 3rd in conference.

I'm sharing the results with you.

Probability of making the playoffs
ANA 99.7%
ATL 91.0%
BOS 60.4%
BUF 99.9%
CAL 58.4%
CAR 58.2%
CHI 20.5%
CLB 9.9%
COL 40.4%
DAL 92.1%
DET 97.2%
EDM 38.1%
FLO 8.8%
LA 4.6%
MIN 51.6%
MTL 88.2%
NAS 96.6%
NJ 91.4%
NYI 34.0%
NYR 64.8%
OTT 53.3%
PHI 0.3%
PHO 23.3%
PIT 51.0%
SJ 95.6%
STL 5.3%
TB 23.6%
TOR 37.5%
VAN 66.7%
WAS 37.7%


Our rank in the Eastern Conference with the respective probabilities
1st 6.4%
2nd 2.4%
3rd 0.5%
4th 38.4%
5th 16.7%
6th 11.0%
7th 7.1%
8th 5.7%
9th 4.1%
10th 2.8%
11th 2.1%
12th 1.4%
13th 1.0%
14th 0.3%
15th 0.1%


Habs' opponents in 1st round with probabilities
BOS 12.7%
NJ 10.9%
ATL 9.7%
OTT 9.2%
NYR 9.0%
CAR 7.4%
BUF 6.8%
PIT 6.3%
TOR 5.6%
WAS 4.1%
NYI 3.5%
TB 2.3%
FLO 0.7%
PHI 0.1%


Therefore, Habs will likely finish 4th or 5th and play Boston or New Jersey in first round. You heard it here first

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:12 PM
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Maddas*
 
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Didn't you post a very similar thing on the RDS talkbacks?

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:18 PM
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JFB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddas View Post
Didn't you post a very similar thing on the RDS talkbacks?
Nope, that wasn't me, but I got the idea in reading his article. However, he only calculated probabilities of making the playoffs, not ranks and opponents. And he didn't take into account seeds #1 to #3 for division champions.

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:18 PM
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znk
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Does this take in to account the flu?

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:33 PM
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If only such things worked as they mathematically ought to. A more complicated model would take into account relative standings position for each game.

That being said, R isn't gonna let you beat Vegas no matter what the model.

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Old
01-06-2007, 10:41 PM
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JFB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedScull View Post
If only such things worked as they mathematically ought to. A more complicated model would take into account relative standings position for each game.

That being said, R isn't gonna let you beat Vegas no matter what the model.

Of course not. We all agree that hockey is way more complicated than a simple mathematic model...

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