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Study on feasability of return of MLB to MTL (UPD Post #70)

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Old
12-14-2013, 10:41 AM
  #126
Kimota
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Originally Posted by HabsByTheBay View Post
Well, for one, that's not what Kimota said. Kimota said they didn't draw well. That's false, they were one of the best drawing teams in the National League.
That has declined after they left Park Jarie. That has again declined after the Carter trade. By the late 80s, the Expos had trouble maintaining an audience at the Stadium.

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Also, francophones support baseball. The overwhelming majority of MLB players from Quebec are francophones, baseball has been played in the francophone community since the 1850s. I totally reject the idea francos don't care about baseball. If they didn't care then Expos baseball would never have been successful at all, since even in the 60s francos were no less than 60% of the population.
It's not that the francos whatever would not love the return of Baseball or the Expos, it's that really the new generation of kids don't play the game and have no interest. And we have had a generation of kids that grew up in the 90s and the new Millenium that have not been exposed to it. Because of that a lot of guys in their 20s and 30s who should be the paying audience in this generation have zero interest.

A NFL franchise would have a greater chance of success in my opinion.

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12-14-2013, 11:19 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
That has declined after they left Park Jarie. That has again declined after the Carter trade. By the late 80s, the Expos had trouble maintaining an audience at the Stadium.
Expos drew when the team was in contention and would have kept drawing, had our best players not been consistently sold off when they were ripe for a huge pay hike. Team was always in the hands of the wrong owners.

Even the birth of the team was evocative of its later frugal ways. MLB required a substantial deposit to seal the deal on the franchise back in the late 60s and Mayor Drapeau put together a group of 10 investors that included Charles Bronfman. On the day the investors had to put up their share of the money, only Bronfman showed up -- he ended up having to go it alone or there would have been no Expos.


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It's not that the francos whatever would not love the return of Baseball or the Expos, it's that really the new generation of kids don't play the game and have no interest. And we have had a generation of kids that grew up in the 90s and the new Millenium that have not been exposed to it. Because of that a lot of guys in their 20s and 30s who should be the paying audience in this generation have zero interest.
Expos were here until 2004 -- just like in other sectors, baseball is a competitive product with anything new that comes into the market. If anything, kids that grew up in the 90s saw some of the best editions of the Expos in the early 90s especially.

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A NFL franchise would have a greater chance of success in my opinion.
Bigger gravitational pull since it is the most successful league in North America -- short to medium term, it would probably have greater success. If Montreal can draw for the Als, it can only be exponentially better for an NFL team.

Major caveat with the NFL are their head injury issues, which have already caused their pipeline to shrink and will be felt on the long-term -- lots of parents are moving their kids out of football. So there is yet room for baseball to grow as it gains a ripple effect benefit down the line.


Last edited by Runner77: 12-14-2013 at 11:42 AM.
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Old
12-14-2013, 11:41 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by HabsByTheBay View Post
The Expos were one of the best drawing teams in baseball from 79-83, I don't get where this notion that they didn't draw well comes from.
Absolutely spot on, from 79-83 they topped NL average attendance figures for each of those years.

From 84 to 97, they weren't too shabby either, with 11 of those years each topping 1.3 million spectators (including 5 years over the 1.5M mark).

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They also drew well in a track stadium in a crappy neighborhood, so you know, if they had that downtown ballpark they always should have had they're probably still in Montreal.
It's only one part of the equation, although a major one. We never really had deep-pocketed owners committed to spending -- they always tried to run the franchise like a strict bottom-line business, which baseball clearly isn't. Big difference now is the substantial guaranteed revenue-sharing money and the potential revenues to be generated from media conglomerates vying to fill programming slots on their 24-hour sports channels and news services, especially in the summer months -- something that wasn't as evolved or available when the Expos left.

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Soccer is easy for women and kids to play. It's been the most played sport in America since the 1970s, you think it's even half as popular as football or baseball? Or even basketball?
While soccer is a growing sport, it's still trumped by MLB in the US -- and Canada doesn't have enough pull to make a difference, except when it comes to hockey (and even then, it's mostly in Canada, lots of US NHL cities don't draw).

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12-14-2013, 02:23 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by HabsByTheBay View Post
You realize that Tampa makes the playoffs every year, right? Sounds like you don't understand economics, baseball, and tourism either.
You come across as a jerk but I'll respond anyways...

Several independent studies have been done on this subject which shows that the IRR a metropolitan area receives for its investment is generally below that of alternative projects. Roger Noll and Andrew Zimbalist (Economists) have done exhaustive studies on this subject and the results indicate that sports facilities attract neither enough tourists or new industry to offset the cash outflow of financing/building new stadiums.

http://www.stlouisfed.org/publicatio...ticles/?id=468

http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/anderso...s/stadiums.pdf

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Old
12-14-2013, 02:42 PM
  #130
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You come across as a jerk but I'll respond anyways...
HF modus operandi, exposed.

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12-14-2013, 02:53 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by HabsByTheBay View Post
Well, for one, that's not what Kimota said. Kimota said they didn't draw well. That's false, they were one of the best drawing teams in the National League.

Also, francophones support baseball. The overwhelming majority of MLB players from Quebec are francophones, baseball has been played in the francophone community since the 1850s. I totally reject the idea francos don't care about baseball. If they didn't care then Expos baseball would never have been successful at all, since even in the 60s francos were no less than 60% of the population.

That being said, the anglo community in Quebec is larger now than it was in 1981. As a % of the population it has dropped, but there are 60,000 more Quebecers who speak it as a home language than in 1981. There's really no correlation between Quebec bleeding English speakers and the team's fortunes, it has much more to do with stadium and on field issues. Probably the most painful effect language has had on the team was the difficulty in selling two packages of broadcast rights in Quebec (which also hurt the Habs - they had half as many games on TV as the Leafs did in the 70s). That's probably not a problem in today's market and even if it was, then just don't sell English rights like the Habs did for years. It's not the 70s, everybody can watch a game in French now.
They drew well up until the end of the 80's. Because of past failures (the Expos WERE seen as a loser organisation by many young casual fans, because of past pennant race failures), and the development of the northern and southern belts around Montreal, the Expos lost many casual fans. You had the hardcore fans, but not the regular Joes anymore. They started to prefer staying in their burbs taking care of their BBQs and pools (a market that EXPLODED in the late 80's).

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12-14-2013, 03:00 PM
  #132
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All in all, I believe that the true potential savior in Montreal is the same company that lost against Rogers not too long ago. And would love to stick it to Rogers on its own playing field. And what better way to get content for its platforms from April until October than acquirinq a major sports team.

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12-14-2013, 03:01 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Runner77 View Post
Absolutely spot on, from 79-83 they topped NL average attendance figures for each of those years.

From 84 to 97, they weren't too shabby either, with 11 of those years each topping 1.3 million spectators (including 5 years over the 1.5M mark).



It's only one part of the equation, although a major one. We never really had deep-pocketed owners committed to spending -- they always tried to run the franchise like a strict bottom-line business, which baseball clearly isn't. Big difference now is the substantial guaranteed revenue-sharing money and the potential revenues to be generated from media conglomerates vying to fill programming slots on their 24-hour sports channels and news services, especially in the summer months -- something that wasn't as evolved or available when the Expos left.



While soccer is a growing sport, it's still trumped by MLB in the US -- and Canada doesn't have enough pull to make a difference, except when it comes to hockey (and even then, it's mostly in Canada, lots of US NHL cities don't draw).
1.3 million tickets sold per season would not be sufficient to break even.

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12-14-2013, 03:46 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by deandebean View Post
1.3 million tickets sold per season would not be sufficient to break even.
I made no assumptions that it was. Although, I should have qualified it by adding that they were lucky to even have drawn as many, considering the sabotage operation that passed for management during most of those years.

Your bottom three attendance teams in all of baseball, currently hover in the 1.5 million range, and that includes the likes of Miami, featuring our A-Hole friend and his moron sidekick stepson.

I don't know what the breaking point might be in terms of attendance however, my understanding it that what would be tilting the balance is the potential media revenue.

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12-14-2013, 03:49 PM
  #135
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Didn't the report say, they would have to draw an avg of 28,000 for 81 home games....a bit over 2.0M in fans could do it...along with all the TV revenue...

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12-14-2013, 04:05 PM
  #136
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Didn't the report say, they would have to draw an avg of 28,000 for 81 home games....a bit over 2.0M in fans could do it...along with all the TV revenue...
The Leger Marketing poll concluded that we could draw

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Leger also forecasts an average attendance of 28,500 per game. Multiplied by 81 games a year, we are looking at a little over 2.3 million in attendance over the course of an entire season.
We all know how everyone is a big spender when answering a poll, and then they are nowhere to be found during an event.

I didn't read the E&Y report.

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12-14-2013, 05:38 PM
  #137
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But at the same time, when you play 24-27 home games against the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Blue Jays, it's very possible to have 20k+ attendance in average.

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12-20-2013, 12:46 AM
  #138
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Many baseball insiders assume MLB will return to Montreal, but some -- like agent Scott Boras -- are pushing for an earlier return if the Tampa Bay Rays cannot solve their ballpark issues.

Boras was pretty clear about Montreal serving as a better home to the Rays, as reported by Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune:

“The hope in baseball is you’d have a consistent product annually, you have a group of people in ownership that are putting winning baseball on the field, and you’d certainly have to say Tampa Bay has done that,” Boras said.
“My point was that baseball, collectively, to protect the game, to protect the market, and you have a product that is so successful and the market is not responding to it, what is the reason? The reason is not the performance of the franchise or the players. The reason has to be there’s a dynamic operating here that is not consistent with what other markets do in baseball.
“Clearly if you win and you’re successful, your fan base rewards. So my suggestion of New Jersey or Montreal or somewhere ... The idea is for the betterment of the game. I think we have to look at markets that aren’t rewarding playing the game at a high level.”

Now, Boras isn't the first person to suggest the Rays should look north of the border for a new home, but he's the one with the most knowledge of baseball's finances to say MLB would be viable in Montreal. The Rays would see an attendance jump playing at initially and temporarily at Olympic Stadium versus the Trop, to be sure, and given the state of politics in Tampa Bay, one could argue there's an equal chance of a new ballpark in both areas. And, one could argue that the economic future for an MLB is considerably brighter in Montreal than Tampa when it comes to TV contracts (Bell would be a natural partner) and media exposure. The trick would be turning that five-year honeymoon into momentum for a new ballpark.
http://ballparkdigest.com/2013121969...rn-to-montreal

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12-20-2013, 12:50 AM
  #139
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Unless there is stadium downtown and the league changing the playoff format, I don't see baseball being successful in Montreal on it's second try. It might attract fans because of the novelty at first, but not having a competitive or winning team will see the team lose fans fast.

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12-20-2013, 02:00 AM
  #140
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It is extremely unlikely that MLB baseball will ever come back to Montreal. The Expos franchise was awarded prior to the 1969 season just after the success of the 1967 Exposition. Things were a lot different in both major league sports and as well as Montreal being the major city in Canada back then, plus there was also a brand new big Olympic stadium. Things have changed and now Montreal would not even be considered. There is no park, no funds, and Montreal is not a very good business market relative to other locations.

As for NFL in Montreal, it is even further down the line of possibility. If Toronto who already has the money backing, a stadium downtown, and 11 million people living within 200 miles of the downtown core and they can't get a team, then Montreal will definitely not get one either. MLSE in Toronto is actively pursuing this but it is doubtful they will win out. The Buffalo Bills would have to go belly up locally in Buffalo and then maybe, just maybe the NFL would move the Bills to Toronto. Then again, that is also unlikely since something like 60% of the fans in the Bill's stands are Canadians from southern Ontario and already financially supporting the team.

The big three US sports (NFL, MLB, & NBA) are also big business and the markets and money determine their new locations. The Montreal metropolitan market is just too small and problematic relative to other potential locations, there is no stadium, and no local backer with lots of and hard financing for the funds. It just "ain't gonna happen".

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12-20-2013, 01:29 PM
  #141
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Bronfman is interested.

http://www.rds.ca/baseball/mlb/bronf...expos-1.819751

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12-20-2013, 01:49 PM
  #142
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It is extremely unlikely that MLB baseball will ever come back to Montreal. The Expos franchise was awarded prior to the 1969 season just after the success of the 1967 Exposition. Things were a lot different in both major league sports and as well as Montreal being the major city in Canada back then, plus there was also a brand new big Olympic stadium. Things have changed and now Montreal would not even be considered. There is no park, no funds, and Montreal is not a very good business market relative to other locations.

As for NFL in Montreal, it is even further down the line of possibility. If Toronto who already has the money backing, a stadium downtown, and 11 million people living within 200 miles of the downtown core and they can't get a team, then Montreal will definitely not get one either. MLSE in Toronto is actively pursuing this but it is doubtful they will win out. The Buffalo Bills would have to go belly up locally in Buffalo and then maybe, just maybe the NFL would move the Bills to Toronto. Then again, that is also unlikely since something like 60% of the fans in the Bill's stands are Canadians from southern Ontario and already financially supporting the team.

The big three US sports (NFL, MLB, & NBA) are also big business and the markets and money determine their new locations. The Montreal metropolitan market is just too small and problematic relative to other potential locations, there is no stadium, and no local backer with lots of and hard financing for the funds. It just "ain't gonna happen".

Montreal is the second largest city in Canada, has the most IT jobs in NA after San Fran and Seattle. A lot of big firms operate here so I don't see how you say that Montreal is not a very good business market compared to like Milwaukee or Minnesota.. Montreal could sustain a MLB team but most of the immigrant population relates to Soccer much more than baseball so thats where I see the problem.

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