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Introducing your 2014-15 Flyers - armchair edition.

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Old
12-15-2013, 10:05 AM
  #76
FanHabtic
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Originally Posted by Prongo View Post
One main reason I want to sign Dan Girardi is because that would make Coburn expendable. I believe Girardi is a better all around defenseman than Coburn, but Coburn would warrant a lot of interest on the trade market(looking at you Edmonton, Ottawa, and Carolina) and those teams would probably be willing to pay a pretty penny for him.

I still hunt for that number one. We need a big named defender to list his frustrations with another city(looking at you PK Subban, who last reported by the fourth period that negotiations aren't moving) I would try to package Schenn+Morin(We know Montreal likes him a lot)+1st from 2015(people will say that's not enough, that is a significant package though) for him if there is any indication he is available. I remember Bobby Mac also said if he isn't getting close to a deal with Montreal other teams will start calling to see if they have an asking price. I know a lot of us don't like him, but man he would be everything we need on our back end(mobility, Booming shot, great first pass, PP QB, and most importantly young) for us to build around. A first pairing of Girardi and Subban would instantly make us a contender I believe.

Or Shea Weber

OR


Bobby Ryan.


Trading significant spots up in the draft is rarely done, so I really don't see that happening.
Haha, come on Prongo. That is not reality. No GM fails to lock up their young Norris trophy winning #1 dman let alone dump him off for that return.

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12-15-2013, 10:10 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by FanHabtic View Post
Haha, come on Prongo. That is not reality. No GM fails to lock up their young Norris trophy winning #1 dman let alone dump him off for that return.
Hey, anything can happen. Also, one thing we all know from HFboards is everyone always over values players in trades. That's why a majority of trades that happen on here are always debated to the fullest. Not saying it does or doesn't get it done, just saying you would need to start somewhere. Also, I think we have all seen anything can happen in this league. What you just said is the exact thing Nashville fans were saying about Weber, and look how that all unfolded. Never say never. So much can go wrong, but the percentages of it are slim. If it ever does arise though, I would think we have the power to at least make an intriguing offer.

Also in negiotations for Weber, don't listen to that one Preds fan who is hell bent on letting everyone know Carchidi said that Preds wanted Schenn, Couts, Voracek, 1st, 1st, 8 million other picks. From all the reports(people in the know much more) said it was Couts+Schenn++ picks. Flyers weren't comfortable giving both up.

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12-15-2013, 11:01 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Prongo View Post
Hey, anything can happen. Also, one thing we all know from HFboards is everyone always over values players in trades. That's why a majority of trades that happen on here are always debated to the fullest. Not saying it does or doesn't get it done, just saying you would need to start somewhere. Also, I think we have all seen anything can happen in this league. What you just said is the exact thing Nashville fans were saying about Weber, and look how that all unfolded. Never say never. So much can go wrong, but the percentages of it are slim. If it ever does arise though, I would think we have the power to at least make an intriguing offer.

Also in negiotations for Weber, don't listen to that one Preds fan who is hell bent on letting everyone know Carchidi said that Preds wanted Schenn, Couts, Voracek, 1st, 1st, 8 million other picks. From all the reports(people in the know much more) said it was Couts+Schenn++ picks. Flyers weren't comfortable giving both up.

While i agree that anything can happen (well Gretz was traded after all), it makes little sense for the Habs to not come to terms with Subban or trade him. Without Subban the Habs would be looking for a dman just like him. And as Flyer fans are well aware, they are virtually unattainable (eg. Weber).

The Habs chances of competing for a cup rely on your young core of Subban, Price, MaxPac, Eller and the Gally's. They are all in the vicinity of the same age group. Subban is THE most important piece (more important than Price) because he can impact the game like no one else on the Habs roster.

Subban will get whatever he wants from Bergevin because he has earned it. The question is, how greedy is Subban? Will he ask for 9 million and hamper the team's chances of signing high-quality UFA's? Even if he did demand 9 million Bergevin has no choice but to accept. The Habs chances of competing for a cup rely on Subban. They can't trade him because they would have a massive hole on the back-end that can't be filled.

Furthermore, with the announcement that the cap is going up to 71 million, the Habs have plenty of room to accommodate a greedy Subban. Trading him is unthinkable.

People harp on the bridge contract as a sign that the Habs GM will play hardball with Subban. That makes little sense. MB demanded that Subban to prove his value through the bridge contract. Subban did that in spades. MB is not stupid - he knows he has to pay the piper no matter the cost. And i doubt that Subban is greedy. He just does not strike me as that type of person.

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12-15-2013, 03:48 PM
  #79
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People throwing the 2015 1st rounder around when no one has any idea where that pick will end up. I don't even...

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12-15-2013, 03:55 PM
  #80
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People throwing the 2015 1st rounder around when no one has any idea where that pick will end up. I don't even...
Considering if we miss the playoffs in 2015 there is a possibility it could turn into the first overall I agree. Whoever wins the lottery next year will be a lucky team.

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12-16-2013, 01:12 PM
  #81
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Mobility and speed. Mobility on the back end and speed on the wings. We need this badly. We could try to do what San Jose did not too long ago by getting rid of Douglas Murray and Ryan Clowe for futures and bring in all speed. Get Giroux a legitimate winger and we are a playoff team, get a legit top pair defender, we are a cup contender. Now, who wants to give us these????

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12-16-2013, 05:51 PM
  #82
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Paul Holmgren's Holiday Wish List

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As the holiday season approaches, Paul Holmgren has a number of issues that the team has to address. There are a couple of big ticket items on his shopping list that the organization needs to address. Never one to allow money to burn a hole in his pocket, Paul Holmgren was no doubt elated with the news that the salary cap will rise to around 71 million for 2013-14.

For possibly the first time in the salary cap era, the Flyers will not be significantly confined by the salary cap. Right now, they have around $54.3 million committed to five defensemen and nine forwards. That number includes Chris Pronger’s $4.94M cap hit, so when that comes off the books they will have around $21.5 million in cap dollars to play with. The following players are without contracts next season:

RFAs: Brayden Schenn, Michael Raffl, Erik Gustafsson, Steve Mason

UFAs: Steve Downie, Adam Hall, Kimmo Timonen, Andrej Meszaros, Hal Gill, Ray Emery

With those in mind, and considering the other needs of the team, here is what Paul Holmgren’s wish list should look like
http://thehockeywriters.com/flyers-o...nal-wish-list/

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12-16-2013, 06:56 PM
  #83
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Not to **** on your ideas... but wow most of these seem extremely unrealistic haha.

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12-16-2013, 07:07 PM
  #84
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I am all for signing Vanek. I would love him with Giroux. Skill and elite speed on his wing with goal scoring ability. Sign me up. Even at UFA cost

Girardi as well. They are the two tops my list. Girardi would make Coburn expendable as well. He would get us a nice return


Last edited by Prongo: 12-16-2013 at 07:18 PM.
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12-16-2013, 07:58 PM
  #85
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Not to **** on your ideas... but wow most of these seem extremely unrealistic haha.
What exactly is extremely unrealistic? Mason can't demand much more money than that with such a short track record. He won't sign long term at a cheap number, so a shorter term at a decent hit around 4.5 seems very likely. I never said we were going to make a franchise-altering trade for a #1; they just aren't out there, and teams don't want to trade them. I said odds were against the Flyers landing either Vanek or Marleau. It's painfully obvious that the defense lacks speed. It's our biggest problem, so there should at least be some effort in the offseason to address it. Re-signing B. Schenn and Downie, and adding some wing prospects in the draft seem reasonable to me.

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12-16-2013, 08:04 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
What exactly is extremely unrealistic? Mason can't demand much more money than that with such a short track record. He won't sign long term at a cheap number, so a shorter term at a decent hit around 4.5 seems very likely. I never said we were going to make a franchise-altering trade for a #1; they just aren't out there, and teams don't want to trade them. I said odds were against the Flyers landing either Vanek or Marleau. It's painfully obvious that the defense lacks speed. It's our biggest problem, so there should at least be some effort in the offseason to address it. Re-signing B. Schenn and Downie, and adding some wing prospects in the draft seem reasonable to me.
Ohh, no dude, I didn't mean your ideas. I meant some of the scenarios people have talked about in this thread. Specifically the ones where more than 50% of the team is changed or ones where we end up getting a legit #1D by giving up anything not including Giroux or Couturier.

I actually agree with pretty much everything you said in that article.

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12-17-2013, 05:26 AM
  #87
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.Samuel Morin, Robert Hagg, and Shayne Gostisbehere are all very good prospects with NHL futures, but none project to be an elite #1 defenseman
This might be the most irritating comment I read about defensive prospects. Did Duncan Keith project to be a number #1 defenseman? Did Dan Boyle? What about Chara? Erik Karlsson who was the 7th defenseman chosen his draft year? How about Ryan McDonagh who had the talent to be drafted in the 1st but was given up on and traded for Scott freaking Gomez. He projected to be an #1 until he didn't and somehow did again. Nobody, not even NHL scouts who are paid to know, knows who will be a #1 defenseman until they start making decisions at the NHL level. I feel like the #1 defenseman has become some mythical beast of size, skating and every other possible skill set that only exists in fans minds. The reality is all you need is a guy who is mobile, reads the play, and makes smart decisions the vast majority of the time to be an elite #1 defenseman. Hagg, morin, or Gostibehere could be a number 1 or could be Carle, Luke Schenn, and Gustafsson.

Ok I am off my soapbox. Back on topic.

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12-17-2013, 07:56 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Prongo View Post
I am all for signing Vanek. I would love him with Giroux. Skill and elite speed on his wing with goal scoring ability. Sign me up. Even at UFA cost

Girardi as well. They are the two tops my list. Girardi would make Coburn expendable as well. He would get us a nice return
Giradi is nowhere near the skater Coburn is. You would be making this very slow defense even slower.

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12-17-2013, 08:09 AM
  #89
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Giradi is nowhere near the skater Coburn is. You would be making this very slow defense even slower.
Agreed. Now if the flyers replaced Grossmann, who could be dealt at the deadline, with Girardi that would be an upgrade in mobility. The only problem is the cap hit would be way more. I would go with Stralman over Girardi if I am choosing a rangers defensemen since his is mobile, can move the puck, and has played very well this year.

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12-17-2013, 09:34 AM
  #90
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This might be the most irritating comment I read about defensive prospects. Did Duncan Keith project to be a number #1 defenseman? Did Dan Boyle? What about Chara? Erik Karlsson who was the 7th defenseman chosen his draft year? How about Ryan McDonagh who had the talent to be drafted in the 1st but was given up on and traded for Scott freaking Gomez. He projected to be an #1 until he didn't and somehow did again. Nobody, not even NHL scouts who are paid to know, knows who will be a #1 defenseman until they start making decisions at the NHL level. I feel like the #1 defenseman has become some mythical beast of size, skating and every other possible skill set that only exists in fans minds. The reality is all you need is a guy who is mobile, reads the play, and makes smart decisions the vast majority of the time to be an elite #1 defenseman. Hagg, morin, or Gostibehere could be a number 1 or could be Carle, Luke Schenn, and Gustafsson.

Ok I am off my soapbox. Back on topic.
Not to say that I disagree with what you're saying about Morin, Hagg, and Ghost, but for every Erik Karlsson that is drafted in the middle of the first round or later that turns into a #1 there are 10 Colten Teuberts and Tyler Cumas who look good draft day but dont pan out. My point is, "experts" need to project players based on what they have shown already, not what they could be if they improve on their deficiencies. You can't just label every first round pick as projecting to be a #1. Yes, some of them improve skills holding them back and develop into that player but you can't just assume they will.

Morin will not be a #1 unless he improves his offensive ability. Right now he's putting up offensive numbers that while they are improved, are similar to what guys like Luke Schenn put up his draft year or what Coburn put up his post draft season. Even if he is a lock down defender, if he can't put up at least 30 points in the NHL, he won't be considered a legit #1.

Hagg doesn't project to be a #1. Could he potentially? Sure, just like a 5th rounder could but it's unlikely. He's playing pro hockey as an 18 year old which is great to see but from all accounts he's a depth defenseman playing about 15 minutes a game and hasn't shown the offensive potential (yet) that people hoped for. His biggest knock so far is his consistency. To be a #1 defenseman you need to bring it every night. Again this is eomthign that can be fixed but you can't just assume it will be.

Ghost again doesnt project to be a #1. If you're going to be a undersized defenseman you better have some elite offensive skill or somehow be a great defender. Before yuo name a great NHL defenseman that is undersized, jsut remember there are hundreds of other that dont pan out because of their size. I think Ghost has some great offensive talent and is going to be a good PP QB who can give up some much needed pop from the back end but he would have to improve his all around game to be a #1 in the NHL which is much different than the NCAA.

Anyway, the article says none of them project to be an "elite #1 defenseman" which is not just a Boyle or McDonagh. To me an elite #1 puts you in the top 5-10 defenseman in the NHL. One or more of them COULD be but come on, lets admit, none are expected to be. I love those three and if even one of them turns into a #1, I'll be beyond happy. If they all turn into good #3's or borderline 2's I'll still be very happy.


Last edited by StoneHands: 12-17-2013 at 09:40 AM.
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12-17-2013, 10:00 AM
  #91
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Not to say that I disagree with what you're saying about Morin, Hagg, and Ghost, but for every Erik Karlsson that is drafted in the middle of the first round or later that turns into a #1 there are 10 Colten Teuberts and Tyler Cumas who look good draft day but dont pan out. My point is, "experts" need to project players based on what they have shown already, not what they could be if they improve on their deficiencies. You can't just label every first round pick as projecting to be a #1. Yes, some of them improve skills holding them back and develop into that player but you can't just assume they will.

Morin will not be a #1 unless he improves his offensive ability. Right now he's putting up offensive numbers that while they are improved, are similar to what guys like Luke Schenn put up his draft year or what Coburn put up his post draft season. Even if he is a lock down defender, if he can't put up at least 30 points in the NHL, he won't be considered a legit #1.

Hagg doesn't project to be a #1. Could he potentially? Sure, just like a 5th rounder could but it's unlikely. He's playing pro hockey as an 18 year old which is great to see but from all accounts he's a depth defenseman playing about 15 minutes a game and hasn't shown the offensive potential (yet) that people hoped for. His biggest knock so far is his consistency. To be a #1 defenseman you need to bring it every night. Again this is eomthign that can be fixed but you can't just assume it will be.

Ghost again doesnt project to be a #1. If you're going to be a undersized defenseman you better have some elite offensive skill or somehow be a great defender. Before yuo name a great NHL defenseman that is undersized, jsut remember there are hundreds of other that dont pan out because of their size. I think Ghost has some great offensive talent and is going to be a good PP QB who can give up some much needed pop from the back end but he would have to improve his all around game to be a #1 in the NHL which is much different than the NCAA.

Anyway, the article says none of them project to be an "elite #1 defenseman" which is not just a Boyle or McDonagh. To me an elite #1 puts you in the top 5-10 defenseman in the NHL. One or more of them COULD be but come on, lets admit, none are expected to be. I love those three and if even one of them turns into a #1, I'll be beyond happy. If they all turn into good #3's or borderline 2's I'll still be very happy.
I get that they all have things to work on and improve and that the odds are against them becoming elite. My point it is foolish to label the future impact of a defenseman when drafting and developing a defenseman is a complete crapshoot. Gostisbehere has done nothing to show he couldn't be another Duncan Keith but he also could be another Gustafsson. You won't really know until he turns pro and plays some in the AHL. Even then it is a big jump from AHL to NHL. The top of the draft is littered with guys who had all the tools in the world and couldn't hack the NHL or simply became Coburn. Then there are guys taken after the 1st or even as free agents who had big questions and tons of people doubting their abilities and become Norris contenders and winners. I've seen a few fan posts saying to trade up for Ekblad as if he would be a guaranteed #1 defenseman. And he would ranked by all these prospect experts and services as being a future Pronger or what not but he could bust once he has to make decisions at the speed of the NHL. You don't know about any of these guys until they hit the NHL and have to make decisions at that speed. Gostibehere, Hagg, and morin are progressing as they should. There is no need to say definitely they won't be #1 ones which the author does just as there is no need to say they will.

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12-17-2013, 10:36 AM
  #92
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I see Ghost as a future bottom pairing defensemen who can also contribute well on the powerplay.
Hagg will likely be a second pairing defensemen.
Morin I can see being a future 2/3 defensemen.
It is very difficult to acquire a true #1 defensemen. In my opinion, both at the time and now, we gave up too much to acquire Pronger. Had we won a cup it would have been worth it but we didn't. The Weber offer sheet also would have also been to many dollars and picks. While picks are a gamble, which makes offer sheets better than a trade, it still usually results in an overpayment money wise to get a player via offer sheet. Trading for a #1 I really don't think we should do as there's a good chance of having to give up a number of assets from the roster for one new addition.

In the future we can have a lineup of:
?-Coburn/Morin
Coburn/Morin-Hagg
Schenn-Ghost

That could be a solid defense with half being home grown defensemen. They will cost less money and hopefully provide us with some solid D. For the other spot look to FA, trade, and offer sheets. Maybe a true number one won't be found but if we can still get another good solid defensemen along with solid goaltending and decent two way play from the forwards we will likely be much more successful than now. Our offense worries me more than the defense when I look forward to a few years from now

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12-17-2013, 12:27 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
This might be the most irritating comment I read about defensive prospects. Did Duncan Keith project to be a number #1 defenseman? Did Dan Boyle? What about Chara? Erik Karlsson who was the 7th defenseman chosen his draft year? How about Ryan McDonagh who had the talent to be drafted in the 1st but was given up on and traded for Scott freaking Gomez. He projected to be an #1 until he didn't and somehow did again. Nobody, not even NHL scouts who are paid to know, knows who will be a #1 defenseman until they start making decisions at the NHL level. I feel like the #1 defenseman has become some mythical beast of size, skating and every other possible skill set that only exists in fans minds. The reality is all you need is a guy who is mobile, reads the play, and makes smart decisions the vast majority of the time to be an elite #1 defenseman. Hagg, morin, or Gostibehere could be a number 1 or could be Carle, Luke Schenn, and Gustafsson.

Ok I am off my soapbox. Back on topic.
It's true that defensemen are harder to predict than forwards (but not as hard to predict as goalies). But more times than not, the guys that are touted as future studs when they're drafted or in their first year or two after being drafted turn out to be studs more than guys that just vanish out of the blue.

Karlsson being the seventh defensemen drafted in 2008 doesn't matter IMO. First, 2008 was touted as being one of the best drafts for defensemen in history. If you remember back to 2008, people were drooling over Karlsson and his potential. He was electric in the U18s and in the J20 for Frolunda in his draft year, the knock on him was he did it at a lower skill level than most, and his size was a question. I recall people saying it was possible he would be the best defenseman from that draft.

McDonagh was very well regarded in his draft year, and played very well at Wisconsin throughout his career. When he was traded, Montreal fans were absolutely livid. And at that point, he hadn't played a single game. When he turned into a stud, they just got even more mad and bitter. They expected him to turn into a very good defenseman, Montreal's GM just made an extremely stupid move.

Look at the elite defensemen in today's game: Doughty, Pietrangelo, Subban, Karlsson, Keith, Weber, OEL, McDonagh, Suter, Chara. Of those guys, I'd say Keith, Chara, and Weber are the only ones that weren't touted as future studs when they were drafted, or shortly after. Doughty, Pietrangelo, OEL, McDonagh, Suter, and Karlsson were high picks. Subban was a second rounder that exploded in the two years after being drafted, and was being talked up like crazy.

Yeah, it happens that guys develop incredibly as pros and become what nobody expected, but more than likely, they were touted as studs coming into the pros. Have Ghost, Morin, or Hagg shown anything close to what most of these guys did in juniors? No.

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12-17-2013, 01:33 PM
  #94
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I get that they all have things to work on and improve and that the odds are against them becoming elite. My point it is foolish to label the future impact of a defenseman when drafting and developing a defenseman is a complete crapshoot. Gostisbehere has done nothing to show he couldn't be another Duncan Keith but he also could be another Gustafsson. You won't really know until he turns pro and plays some in the AHL. Even then it is a big jump from AHL to NHL. The top of the draft is littered with guys who had all the tools in the world and couldn't hack the NHL or simply became Coburn. Then there are guys taken after the 1st or even as free agents who had big questions and tons of people doubting their abilities and become Norris contenders and winners. I've seen a few fan posts saying to trade up for Ekblad as if he would be a guaranteed #1 defenseman. And he would ranked by all these prospect experts and services as being a future Pronger or what not but he could bust once he has to make decisions at the speed of the NHL. You don't know about any of these guys until they hit the NHL and have to make decisions at that speed. Gostibehere, Hagg, and morin are progressing as they should. There is no need to say definitely they won't be #1 ones which the author does just as there is no need to say they will.
I dont necessarily agree that the author said they definitely won't be #1's, he simply said they don't project to be which IMO is correct. If they keep progressing at the the pace they are now like a usual prospect, none of them will be #1's. Morin would have to progress his offensive game much more than expected. Hagg and Ghost would have to improve his all around game much more than expected for them to turn into #1's. Its much more of a stretch to say they will be #1s than to say they wont.

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12-17-2013, 01:35 PM
  #95
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Here's a question...we all know the rumors of Edmonton being interested in Hartnell and Coburn. They are currently sitting at 28 in the league. If they were to win the lottery do you try to package one of them to get that first pick. Maybe Hartnell+Ghost+Something else? I'd prefer to keep Coburn in such a deal. I would consider something like L.Schenn+Hartnell/Simmonds for the first overall and a lower round pick however.

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12-17-2013, 01:52 PM
  #96
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Comparison 1
Duncan Keith
2001-02 Michigan State University CCHA 41 3 12 15 18 8
2002-03 Michigan State University CCHA 15 3 6 9 8 -4

Shayne Gostisbehere
2011-12 Union College ECAC 41 5 17 22 20
2012-13 Union College ECAC 36 8 18 26 39
2013-14 Union College ECAC 18 6 10 16 12 0

Comparison 2
Zdeno Chara post draft year (only one in juniors)
1996-97 Prince George Cougars WHL 49 3 19 22 120 15 1 7 8 45

Samuel Morin pre and post year
2012-13 Rimouski Oceanic QMJHL 46 4 12 16 117 10 6 1 6 7 16
2013-14 Rimouski Oceanic QMJHL 25 4 11 15 57 -6

Shea Weber pre and post year
2002-03 Kelowna Rockets WHL 70 2 16 18 167 25 19 1 4 5 26
2003-04 Kelowna Rockets WHL 60 12 20 32 126 23 17 3 14 17 16

Comparison 3
Erik Karlsson
2007-08 Frolunda HC SEL 7 1 0 1 0 2 6 0 0 0 0
2008-09 Frolunda HC SEL 45 5 5 10 10 3 11 1 2 3 24
2008-09 Boras HC Swe-1 7 0 1 1 14 -1

Robert Hagg
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM GP G A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012-13 MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 27 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0
2013-14 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SweHL 33 1 4 5 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Points wise those guys don't look all that different as far as junior careers so you must be talking about hype. US college guys, especially smaller guys like Rafalski and Boyle, get very little hype unless they are drafted high. As far as Pk Subban being highly rated coming out, he wasn't even in TSN's top 30. http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7066. The world juniors post draft rose his stock. Let's see how Hagg performs and possibly morin next year if he makes it.

Again, I am not saying that these guys are going to be elite just saying you don't know yet. Weber, Chara, Keith, Subban, are elite guys who were not hyped their draft year and some draft year +1 or 2 or in the case of Chara +10. Then you have the next generation of possible elite guys or just good 1st pair guys like Voynov, Faulk, Josi, Hamonic, Edler, Yandle, Ehrhoff, Campbell, Enstrom, Byfuglien, Timonen, Giordano. Don't also forget the 2nd best defensemen of all time was a 3rd rd pick in Lidstrom.

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12-17-2013, 01:54 PM
  #97
Curufinwe
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Chara took forever to reach his ceiling. Ottawa kept Wade freaking Redden instead of him.

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12-17-2013, 03:24 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Comparison 1
Duncan Keith
2001-02 Michigan State University CCHA 41 3 12 15 18 8
2002-03 Michigan State University CCHA 15 3 6 9 8 -4

Shayne Gostisbehere
2011-12 Union College ECAC 41 5 17 22 20
2012-13 Union College ECAC 36 8 18 26 39
2013-14 Union College ECAC 18 6 10 16 12 0
Remember that Gostisbehere was drafted as an overager, in his draft year he was passed over. Here is how they look when the years are lined up when they were the same age:

Keith: 15 points in 42 games at Michigan State
Gostisbehere: 36 points in 24 games at South Kent Prep.

No comparison to be made, such different levels of play.

Keith: 9 points in 15 games at Michigan State, 46 points in 37 games in the WHL
Gostisbehere: 22 points in 41 games at Union

Keith: 25 points in 75 games in the AHL
Gostisbehere: 26 points in 36 games at Union

Keith: 26 points in 79 games the AHL
Gostisbehere: 16 points in 18 games at Union (current season)

Keith clearly looks more impressive.

Quote:
Comparison 2
Zdeno Chara post draft year (only one in juniors)
1996-97 Prince George Cougars WHL 49 3 19 22 120 15 1 7 8 45

Samuel Morin pre and post year
2012-13 Rimouski Oceanic QMJHL 46 4 12 16 117 10 6 1 6 7 16
2013-14 Rimouski Oceanic QMJHL 25 4 11 15 57 -6

Shea Weber pre and post year
2002-03 Kelowna Rockets WHL 70 2 16 18 167 25 19 1 4 5 26
2003-04 Kelowna Rockets WHL 60 12 20 32 126 23 17 3 14 17 16
Chara is such a unique player with a weird developmental curve that there is no use in comparing anyone to him. He's literally the only person like him in NHL history. Weber is an odd player whose offense never really showed in juniors. As I said, it happens. It just doesn't happen very often.

Quote:
Comparison 3
Erik Karlsson
2007-08 Frolunda HC SEL 7 1 0 1 0 2 6 0 0 0 0
2008-09 Frolunda HC SEL 45 5 5 10 10 3 11 1 2 3 24
2008-09 Boras HC Swe-1 7 0 1 1 14 -1

Robert Hagg
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM GP G A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012-13 MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 27 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0
2013-14 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SweHL 33 1 4 5 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, Karlsson didn't take off until the year after he was drafted. If Hagg plays at over a point a game in the WJC this year and plays at a .87PPG pace in all U20 games over 15 games like Karlsson did, make all the comparisons you want. But right now, Hagg has one point in five U20 games, and in all likelihood will not put up that kind of pace.

Quote:
Points wise those guys don't look all that different as far as junior careers so you must be talking about hype. US college guys, especially smaller guys like Rafalski and Boyle, get very little hype unless they are drafted high. As far as Pk Subban being highly rated coming out, he wasn't even in TSN's top 30. http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7066. The world juniors post draft rose his stock. Let's see how Hagg performs and possibly morin next year if he makes it.
Rafalski and Boyle aren't realistic comparable players because when they were draft eligible players, the NHL was a completely different league. Small defensemen were seen as having zero NHL future at all because of their size and the style of play in the league at the time. It didn't matter what crooked numbers they put up, their size meant they weren't effective in a scout's eyes. It's a completely different league now, and if they put up the numbers they did back in the day in today's NCAA, they'd be very highly regarded. When Subban entered the pros, he was regarded as one of the best defensive prospects in hockey. He put up a huge season in the OHL and WJC.

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12-17-2013, 03:44 PM
  #99
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When did everyone become scouts here? When you draft a player, not matter the position, it's crap shoot on how they develop. Of course there are generational players like Crosby, Ovie, Malkin but they are few and far between. We really have no idea how Morin, Ghost, Hagg, Laughton or Stolarz are going to develop and we won't know until they are within our pro system. I'm just happy that we have defensive prospects at this point because it shows a huge shift in how the Flyers are approaching defense. Develop your own because looking for high end defensemen in trades or FA is equate to chasing dragons. In this era if you want a good defense you have draft one.

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12-17-2013, 04:03 PM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Remember that Gostisbehere was drafted as an overager, in his draft year he was passed over. Here is how they look when the years are lined up when they were the same age:

Keith: 15 points in 42 games at Michigan State
Gostisbehere: 36 points in 24 games at South Kent Prep.

No comparison to be made, such different levels of play.

Keith: 9 points in 15 games at Michigan State, 46 points in 37 games in the WHL
Gostisbehere: 22 points in 41 games at Union

Keith: 25 points in 75 games in the AHL
Gostisbehere: 26 points in 36 games at Union

Keith: 26 points in 79 games the AHL
Gostisbehere: 16 points in 18 games at Union (current season)

Keith clearly looks more impressive.



Chara is such a unique player with a weird developmental curve that there is no use in comparing anyone to him. He's literally the only person like him in NHL history. Weber is an odd player whose offense never really showed in juniors. As I said, it happens. It just doesn't happen very often.



Yeah, Karlsson didn't take off until the year after he was drafted. If Hagg plays at over a point a game in the WJC this year and plays at a .87PPG pace in all U20 games over 15 games like Karlsson did, make all the comparisons you want. But right now, Hagg has one point in five U20 games, and in all likelihood will not put up that kind of pace.



Rafalski and Boyle aren't realistic comparable players because when they were draft eligible players, the NHL was a completely different league. Small defensemen were seen as having zero NHL future at all because of their size and the style of play in the league at the time. It didn't matter what crooked numbers they put up, their size meant they weren't effective in a scout's eyes. It's a completely different league now, and if they put up the numbers they did back in the day in today's NCAA, they'd be very highly regarded. When Subban entered the pros, he was regarded as one of the best defensive prospects in hockey. He put up a huge season in the OHL and WJC.
Gostisbehere was 18 yrs old to start his first season in college just like Keith. Just because he was drafted after his freshman year instead of before like Keith, doesn't make it not an apple and apples comparison. So I am not sure why you are comparing his 17 year old season in prep school to Keith's 18 year old season in college.

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