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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): Wheels and Sarge out.

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Old
12-16-2013, 01:06 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by jml87 View Post
What is he doing? The team stopped spending money in 2012 and now they have a bloated lineup of guys who can't hit and we're down to Lee/Hamels and then frickin Kendrick is our third guy.

See, cause Amaro was such an idiot over past years and signed Howard, Rollins, and Papelbon in particular for way more than they were worth, now the owners won't hand over anymore cash and the team is in complete limbo. They can't get better because we can't trade those guys I mentioned and Amaro is using old methods instead of looking at statistics and figuring out what he can do. To trade the above names they would have to take back money and they don't want to do that. And because Amaro is as dumb as a brick, he can't find any cheap, good options to fill the holes.

So what have we added to the abysmal 2013 Phillies? Marlon Byrd replaces Delmon Young and we replaced John Lannan with Roberto Hernandez. You have a lineup that can't score runs to save themselves and the only thing you do is add Marlon Byrd?

I thought last year at spring training that people were being too harsh and that the Phillies had a chance to compete. But the truth is, their clean up hitter isn't the same since 2011, Rollins hasn't had a great season since 2007 and has gotten to the point that he's barely serviceable, and Papelbon and the bullpen were garbage. What has changed to make anyone think this will be better in 2014? This is the exact same team that we ended the season with.
And you don't fix it by running out and spending money.

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12-16-2013, 01:22 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by jml87 View Post
What is he doing? The team stopped spending money in 2012 and now they have a bloated lineup of guys who can't hit and we're down to Lee/Hamels and then frickin Kendrick is our third guy.

See, cause Amaro was such an idiot over past years and signed Howard, Rollins, and Papelbon in particular for way more than they were worth, now the owners won't hand over anymore cash and the team is in complete limbo. They can't get better because we can't trade those guys I mentioned and Amaro is using old methods instead of looking at statistics and figuring out what he can do. To trade the above names they would have to take back money and they don't want to do that. And because Amaro is as dumb as a brick, he can't find any cheap, good options to fill the holes.

So what have we added to the abysmal 2013 Phillies? Marlon Byrd replaces Delmon Young and we replaced John Lannan with Roberto Hernandez. You have a lineup that can't score runs to save themselves and the only thing you do is add Marlon Byrd?

I thought last year at spring training that people were being too harsh and that the Phillies had a chance to compete. But the truth is, their clean up hitter isn't the same since 2011, Rollins hasn't had a great season since 2007 and has gotten to the point that he's barely serviceable, and Papelbon and the bullpen were garbage. What has changed to make anyone think this will be better in 2014? This is the exact same team that we ended the season with.
I think the idea is that many of the players from last year's squad underachieved (or at least that is what I was getting at). This team is largely the same, but if key players like Ryan Howard bounce back, it is a very different team.

I don't think Ryan Howard will hit 50 homers ever again, or even get to 40. But I don't think it is out of the question that he can rebound to the 25-35 range. If he can get to that level, then you likely will see decent numbers from the guys batting around him (Utley, Byrd, Brown).

As for J-Roll, I agree that he is pretty much finished. But he is here. He's going to bat .250 and hit 13 homers with some ok defense. Oh well. There really isn't anything out there right now that is going to come in and do better. The only thing the Phillies would do is save money by replacing him with a younger guy who plays to the same level or below (See Galvis, Freddy, who may be better in the field but sucks at the plate).

Revere, Brown, and Utley are a solid base to work on. Revere was up above .300 when he get hurt and D-Brown was on a tear for a good part of the season, which he will hopefully improve upon. Chooch is gonna hit in the .275 range, which is fine for a catch batting 7/8. Asche (or whomever plays 3rd) will likely be the biggest hole in the lineup. But again, if Howard can get back to at least somewhere better form, this team will be ok on offense.

Similarly, the bullpen underachieved last year. Mike Adams should have a better year. Papelbon did not have the terrible year people make it seem (he wasn't dominant, but he didn't suck by any means). I'm not saying they are a lock by any means, but they could be in contention come September.

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12-16-2013, 01:24 PM
  #678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I think the idea is that many of the players from last year's squad underachieved (or at least that is what I was getting at). This team is largely the same, but if key players like Ryan Howard bounce back, it is a very different team.

I don't think Ryan Howard will hit 50 homers ever again, or even get to 40. But I don't think it is out of the question that he can rebound to the 25-35 range. If he can get to that level, then you likely will see decent numbers from the guys batting around him (Utley, Byrd, Brown).

As for J-Roll, I agree that he is pretty much finished. But he is here. He's going to bat .250 and hit 13 homers with some ok defense. Oh well. There really isn't anything out there right now that is going to come in and do better. The only thing the Phillies would do is save money by replacing him with a younger guy who plays to the same level or below (See Galvis, Freddy, who may be better in the field but sucks at the plate).

Revere, Brown, and Utley are a solid base to work on. Revere was up above .300 when he get hurt and D-Brown was on a tear for a good part of the season, which he will hopefully improve upon. Chooch is gonna hit in the .275 range, which is fine for a catch batting 7/8. Asche (or whomever plays 3rd) will likely be the biggest hole in the lineup. But again, if Howard can get back to at least somewhere better form, this team will be ok on offense.

Similarly, the bullpen underachieved last year. Mike Adams should have a better year. Papelbon did not have the terrible year people make it seem (he wasn't dominant, but he didn't suck by any means). I'm not saying they are a lock by any means, but they could be in contention come September.
You think Ruiz is guaranteed to do that? I can easily see him having a down year at the plate.

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12-16-2013, 02:09 PM
  #679
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You think Ruiz is guaranteed to do that? I can easily see him having a down year at the plate.
Care to elaborate upon why? I think he's going to bat in that ballpark based on his historical performance. Yes, he batted .268 last season, but I don't think that is indicative of something other than a down year. Obviously, it is possible he hits below the .275, but over the past four years that .268 was was the lowest he's hit and he was hurt last season IIRC. Unless you think that last season was the beginning of the end for him (which again, I'd ask you to elaborate upon why you feel that way), I don't see why he wouldn't hit .275.

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12-16-2013, 02:17 PM
  #680
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I don't see why he wouldn't hit .275.
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Carlos Joaquín Ruiz (born January 22, 1979)
Just sayin..

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12-16-2013, 02:47 PM
  #681
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FWIW, if you look at Rollins' batted ball data from last year there isn't much difference from his career averages. Some of his batted ball numbers were among the best marks of his career. I'm talking K%, BB%, LD%, FB%, GB% and IFFB%. The one that was drastically different was the HR/FB ratio, which could mean he was unlucky to some extent. I don't think he's finished quite yet.

And, most teams have plenty of "ifs" heading into the season. The Phillies have more than most teams that have playoff aspirations, but they're conceivably in the hunt. I agree with Heisenberg that Amaro is trying to segue between the last core and the next core without committing any more big contracts to older players. That means no Choo, Ellsbury, etc. Maybe that decision comes from ownership but either way I think it's pretty clear that that's their approach. They don't want to bottom out because they still want to attract fans, so they're trying to be as good as possible without spending a lot more money than they already have committed.

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12-16-2013, 02:54 PM
  #682
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Just sayin..
Oh ok. 35. Nevermind. I thought he was 34. If he was 34 then it would be feasible for a guy to hit to his career numbers, but not 35. That is just too old.

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12-16-2013, 03:02 PM
  #683
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Chooch can legally take adderall all year, if it does help him, then we are good.

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12-16-2013, 03:05 PM
  #684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Care to elaborate upon why? I think he's going to bat in that ballpark based on his historical performance. Yes, he batted .268 last season, but I don't think that is indicative of something other than a down year. Obviously, it is possible he hits below the .275, but over the past four years that .268 was was the lowest he's hit and he was hurt last season IIRC. Unless you think that last season was the beginning of the end for him (which again, I'd ask you to elaborate upon why you feel that way), I don't see why he wouldn't hit .275.
It's mere speculation just from watching him, I guess. I have no empirical data, just my own (probably silly) prediction. He doesn't look like he used to at the plate to me.

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12-16-2013, 03:10 PM
  #685
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Oh ok. 35. Nevermind. I thought he was 34. If he was 34 then it would be feasible for a guy to hit to his career numbers, but not 35. That is just too old.

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12-16-2013, 03:22 PM
  #686
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And you don't fix it by running out and spending money.
You're right. You fix it by letting go of the past and starting over. Only we can't do that and we refuse to do that. We might be able to lose this horrible extra weight but we'd have to eat some contract and they don't want to do that.

The problem is the team has a bunch of veteran guys and they keep acting like they are in win now mode. But they don't add the personnel to be in win now mode. At this point, you either are like the Yankees and you go all out and buy everyone on the market, or you cut your losses, trade everyone except for maybe a few guys to save ticket sales and go off your young system.

The Phillies can't and won't do either of those things which is why I said they were stuck in limbo.

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I think the idea is that many of the players from last year's squad underachieved (or at least that is what I was getting at). This team is largely the same, but if key players like Ryan Howard bounce back, it is a very different team.

I don't think Ryan Howard will hit 50 homers ever again, or even get to 40. But I don't think it is out of the question that he can rebound to the 25-35 range. If he can get to that level, then you likely will see decent numbers from the guys batting around him (Utley, Byrd, Brown).

As for J-Roll, I agree that he is pretty much finished. But he is here. He's going to bat .250 and hit 13 homers with some ok defense. Oh well. There really isn't anything out there right now that is going to come in and do better. The only thing the Phillies would do is save money by replacing him with a younger guy who plays to the same level or below (See Galvis, Freddy, who may be better in the field but sucks at the plate).

Revere, Brown, and Utley are a solid base to work on. Revere was up above .300 when he get hurt and D-Brown was on a tear for a good part of the season, which he will hopefully improve upon. Chooch is gonna hit in the .275 range, which is fine for a catch batting 7/8. Asche (or whomever plays 3rd) will likely be the biggest hole in the lineup. But again, if Howard can get back to at least somewhere better form, this team will be ok on offense.

Similarly, the bullpen underachieved last year. Mike Adams should have a better year. Papelbon did not have the terrible year people make it seem (he wasn't dominant, but he didn't suck by any means). I'm not saying they are a lock by any means, but they could be in contention come September.
Pabelbon sucks. Regardless of the numbers, he is not worth his contract and nobody wants him. He's a locker room cancer that no one likes and his constant comments about how 'I didn't sign for this' and his other ******** are ridiculous. Amaro had a chance to trade him after a good first half but didn't cause he thought the Phillies could make a comeback. He started to mouth off and blow saves and now you can't give him away. I seriously haven't disliked a player this much since Adam Eaton.

Mike Adams has significant injury problems. I just have no reason to believe he can come back and be that effective after having shoulder surgery for three tears as well as previous thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

J-Roll like you said, is done, but even though Galvis isn't any better, you still play the younger guy. We need to rebuild. Revere would be great on a team that actually had some power, but we don't really have that. They are too old. If I saw Howard working his ass off like Utley did to get back to normal, maybe I'd have more faith in him but I don't see it. And I'm sick of watching him do the same things over and over, and getting himself out. Dan Uggla had 22 homers last year and didn't make the playoff roster. We need Howard to at least be worth half of his 25 mil dollar contract and he's been barely worth 5 mil. There's nothing I can see that makes me think that he's going to be any better.

We need to get much younger. Boston and St Louis showed exactly what you should be doing. A few veteran guys and a load of young talent. If I had a choice, I'd trade everyone over the age of 30 outside of Utley and Hamels. They can't do the same thing and continually think the result will be different. It wasn't different in 2012, it wasn't different in 2013, and it won't change in 2014 either

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12-16-2013, 03:47 PM
  #687
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Quote:
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You're right. You fix it by letting go of the past and starting over. Only we can't do that and we refuse to do that. We might be able to lose this horrible extra weight but we'd have to eat some contract and they don't want to do that.

The problem is the team has a bunch of veteran guys and they keep acting like they are in win now mode. But they don't add the personnel to be in win now mode. At this point, you either are like the Yankees and you go all out and buy everyone on the market, or you cut your losses, trade everyone except for maybe a few guys to save ticket sales and go off your young system.

The Phillies can't and won't do either of those things which is why I said they were stuck in limbo.



Pabelbon sucks. Regardless of the numbers, he is not worth his contract and nobody wants him. He's a locker room cancer that no one likes and his constant comments about how 'I didn't sign for this' and his other ******** are ridiculous. Amaro had a chance to trade him after a good first half but didn't cause he thought the Phillies could make a comeback. He started to mouth off and blow saves and now you can't give him away. I seriously haven't disliked a player this much since Adam Eaton.

Mike Adams has significant injury problems. I just have no reason to believe he can come back and be that effective after having shoulder surgery for three tears as well as previous thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

J-Roll like you said, is done, but even though Galvis isn't any better, you still play the younger guy. We need to rebuild. Revere would be great on a team that actually had some power, but we don't really have that. They are too old. If I saw Howard working his ass off like Utley did to get back to normal, maybe I'd have more faith in him but I don't see it. And I'm sick of watching him do the same things over and over, and getting himself out. Dan Uggla had 22 homers last year and didn't make the playoff roster. We need Howard to at least be worth half of his 25 mil dollar contract and he's been barely worth 5 mil. There's nothing I can see that makes me think that he's going to be any better.

We need to get much younger. Boston and St Louis showed exactly what you should be doing. A few veteran guys and a load of young talent. If I had a choice, I'd trade everyone over the age of 30 outside of Utley and Hamels. They can't do the same thing and continually think the result will be different. It wasn't different in 2012, it wasn't different in 2013, and it won't change in 2014 either


Holy **** I didn't realize Hamels was 30. Time flies by, I remember when he was the young gun!

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12-16-2013, 03:52 PM
  #688
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Betting on guys in their mid-30s to regain their form from 7 years ago is hilarious and an extremely high recipe for more failure.

I highly doubt the Phillies will be good for the next few years.

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12-16-2013, 04:13 PM
  #689
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Oh ok. 35. Nevermind. I thought he was 34. If he was 34 then it would be feasible for a guy to hit to his career numbers, but not 35. That is just too old.
Once an athlete is in his mid 30s it's not unusual at all for them to have a sizable dropoff in performance from one year to another. This is true across pretty much every sport.

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12-16-2013, 04:21 PM
  #690
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I gotta tell ya, as much as people are upset with the Phillies and Amaro's moves this offseason, the team has potential to do well this year. Going forward may be a different story, but with the Hamels-Lee one-two punch, a potentially potent offense, and a potentially improved bullpen, this team might compete.

Revere was looking like a good player before his injury. Utley put up some decent numbers. Brown was an all-star last year and hopefully will continue to improve. Chooch was solid and there is no reason to think he won't be again. That leaves the question marks of Byrd, Howard, Asche, and Rollins.

I honestly don't know what to expect from Bryd. I don't think he'll repeat last year, but I also don't think he'll be a bum at the plate. If Howard comes back swinging and gets to the 30HR, 100RBI range, which is not out of the question, that would be huge in the middle of the lineup. Rollins will likely bat around .250 and be the weakest part of the lineup along with Asche, who I also am not sure what to expect.

If the back end of the rotation (presumably Gonzalez, Kendrick, and Hernandez) pitch well, this team could see postseason time.

The bullpen I think has to be better just because of how bad they were last year. Bastardo, Martin, and Paps at the back end is pretty decent. And Mike Adams should rebound at least a little. The Diekmans and De Fratuses of the world are likely going to be about the same.

That being said, there are still A LOT of ifs with this team.
I feel like we said this last year.

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12-16-2013, 04:41 PM
  #691
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I feel like we said this last year.
Anyone thinking the Phillies will compete this year are setting themselves up for disappointment. A line up full of low ops guys, a severe drop off in pitching after Hamels/lee, a highly questionable bullpen. I don't see how they finish above third. If any team in the division is due for a bounce back year its the nats. Braves bullpen is still best in the majors, their lineup is the best in division, their only question is if their starting pitching continues to hold up. This current phillies team is the 08-present mets. They are still recovering from the mess of signing over the hill players and refusing to build young talent.

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12-16-2013, 08:08 PM
  #692
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I won't root for the Phillies to lose, but I do hope that if we're out of it, it's obvious to ownership that we need to rebuild and make other necessary front office changes.

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12-17-2013, 09:54 AM
  #693
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It's mere speculation just from watching him, I guess. I have no empirical data, just my own (probably silly) prediction. He doesn't look like he used to at the plate to me.
Fair enough.

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Once an athlete is in his mid 30s it's not unusual at all for them to have a sizable dropoff in performance from one year to another. This is true across pretty much every sport.
Absolutely. It isn't unusual. But that doesn't mean it is a given. The guy had a down year last year dropping like .060 in BA. I'm not saying he is going to bounce back and hit .320, but I also don't think you can assume that the will bat less than .275 just because he is 35.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but if you are asking me what I think, I'd point to him having a year of batting .275. Maybe its lower, maybe its higher, but .275 is about as fair a guess as you can have.

What do you think his BA will be? .250? Higher? Lower? Is the only reason because he is 35?

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12-17-2013, 10:04 AM
  #694
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Fair enough.







Absolutely. It isn't unusual. But that doesn't mean it is a given. The guy had a down year last year dropping like .060 in BA. I'm not saying he is going to bounce back and hit .320, but I also don't think you can assume that the will bat less than .275 just because he is 35.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but if you are asking me what I think, I'd point to him having a year of batting .275. Maybe its lower, maybe its higher, but .275 is about as fair a guess as you can have.

What do you think his BA will be? .250? Higher? Lower? Is the only reason because he is 35?
Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right! I'm certainly not rooting for Chooch to fail.

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12-19-2013, 09:26 PM
  #695
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http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-front-office/

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Charlie Manuel is expected to accept a role in the Phillies front office that would involve some minor-league hitting instruction, scouting and public relations. Amaro said he is still talking about details with Manuel.

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12-22-2013, 10:37 AM
  #696
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Fair enough.



You're banking on the exception to the rule instead of the rule.

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01-03-2014, 08:29 AM
  #697
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The Phillies and Comcast SportsNet have finalized a contract that will extend their television partnership well beyond 2015, when the previous deal was set to expire, the Daily News has learned. Terms of the new contract are unknown at this point.

A Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia spokesman confirmed the deal but declined to offer terms.

"We're pleased to confirm that NBCUniversal and Comcast SportsNet have signed a new long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies that will expand Comcast SportsNet's role as the Phillies' primary TV partner," the spokesman said. "Although the terms of the comprehensive deal are confidential, details surrounding the 2014 schedule of games will be provided in the coming months."

The Phillies previous deal is believed to have paid them a rights fee in the neighborhood of $35 million per season, although the team was also entitled to the advertising revenue from the broadcasts, so it is difficult to judge exactly how much money the club was pocketing each season.
Rumored to be a 20-25 year deal. This deal could/should be HUGE.

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01-03-2014, 09:56 AM
  #698
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Better be 500 billion dollars. Buy everyone. Buy the Yankees.

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01-03-2014, 10:10 AM
  #699
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Just in time for Tanaka...

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01-03-2014, 11:03 AM
  #700
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Let's take bets on the annual value.

For reference:

Quote:
Team - amount per year (in millions $) - year signed

Dodgers - 340 - 2013
Rangers - 150 - 2010
Angels - 150 - 2011
Mariners - 115 - 2013
Yankees - 90 - 2002
Astros - 80 - 2013
Also remember Philadelphia actually has the largest (not dimension, but tv viewers) single-team designated media market in the country.

I say $175 million per season. I hope it breaks $200 per, but suspect it won't.

Broad Street Elite is offline  
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