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Round 2, Vote 3 (HOH Top Centers)

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Old
11-19-2013, 10:04 PM
  #301
Hawkey Town 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
Unfortunately this would be a tedious, manual effort. I think it would provide useful information in assessing Orr's impact on Esposito - just wanted to see if anybody has done this research before I potentially spend time on it.
I did it last year as Mike Farkas referenced...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
Yes, our very own personal ballot box has...

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...53&postcount=1

Was the total:
Without Orr 67 34 57 91 1.358
With Orr 558 425 496 921 1.651

So if anyone is into small sample sizes and just taking raw numbers for face value, then one would surmise from these numbers that Esposito would go from the most dominant offensive forward of the 70's all the way down to...the most dominant offensive forward of the 70's...hmph...

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11-19-2013, 10:05 PM
  #302
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Sorry, not sure how I missed that. Thanks for posting the link.

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11-19-2013, 10:06 PM
  #303
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Reality

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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
So by this logic, it's impossible for a good PKer to be on a team that is at or near the league lead in PPGA, regardless of PK%
Not hypotheticals. Come-up with an actual situation, player(s)
and team where what you described above actually happened.

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11-19-2013, 10:07 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Aren't we trying to determine how good a PKer one player was? Unless he is responsible for taking a large number of penalties himself percentage would be a better (although certainly not perfect) indicator than total PPGA.
We are trying to determine how good a center a specific player was.

Best approach is looking at his skill set necessary for the center position.

PK is not a necessary attribute for playing center. Numerous teams have had very successful PK units without centers at any of the two forward slots.

Further distracted by the obvious lack of knowledge as to whether or why certain players played center during the PK we are confronted with metrics where negative results get converted to positive yet the actual game results clearly show the opposite.

Specifically, 1968-69 Canadiens with the 9th best PP during the RS
scored at a 1PPG/G rate against the Bruins in the semi-finals. Bruins with the best RS, PP = .79 PPG/G were not that efficient.

Yet we are supposed to believe the Bruins had the most efficient PK when the results show the complete opposite.

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11-19-2013, 10:12 PM
  #305
Rob Scuderi
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Not hypotheticals. Come-up with an actual situation, player(s)
and team where what you described above actually happened.
You just responded to it. The 1969 Bruins had Westfall and Sanderson kill over 60% and 40% respectively of the team's penalties in the games they played. Are their efforts and reputation as very good penalty killers discounted because their teammates took too many penalties?

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11-19-2013, 10:36 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Rob Scuderi View Post
You just responded to it. The 1969 Bruins had Westfall and Sanderson kill over 60% and 40% respectively of the team's penalties in the games they played. Are their efforts and reputation as very good penalty killers discounted because their teammates took too many penalties?
Let's see the rest of the PKers in the league during the 1968-69 season. Given.

Given that the Bruins faced 351 SH situations in the regular season, giving-up 54 PPGA with Westfall playing 70/76 and Sanderson 61/76
games the support data that you will present should be very interesting.

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Old
11-19-2013, 10:47 PM
  #307
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I have to say, I've never heard someone claim that raw PPGA is the best way to evaluate a PK unit.

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11-19-2013, 10:48 PM
  #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Let's see the rest of the PKers in the league during the 1968-69 season. Given.

Given that the Bruins faced 351 SH situations in the regular season, giving-up 54 PPGA with Westfall playing 70/76 and Sanderson 61/76
games the support data that you will present should be very interesting.
I was just trying to give you another example you requested, so you could confirm your position on Esposito's penalty killing applied to others as well. As others already questioned.

Posting all that other information is a subject that belongs in a different thread.

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11-19-2013, 11:07 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
Yes, our very own personal ballot box has...

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...53&postcount=1

Was the total:
Without Orr 67 34 57 91 1.358
With Orr 558 425 496 921 1.651

So if anyone is into small sample sizes and just taking raw numbers for face value, then one would surmise from these numbers that Esposito would go from the most dominant offensive forward of the 70's all the way down to...the most dominant offensive forward of the 70's...hmph...
I'd say that's actually a good-sized sample. I mean, let's be honest, if this study showed that his PPG didn't change at all, it would be used as evidence in his favour, not brushed off as a small sample.

1.35 PPG is still awesome, but it's not otherworldly. Sakic did this well over an 8-year period and the league was much lower scoring (and he was good defensively). Yzerman topped that by a fair margin. Clarke's best 8-year period saw him average 1.22 PPG while being infinitely more valuable at the other end of the rink. Trottier averaged 1.42 in his best 8-year period which should make him a slam dunk better player considering his own intangibles. There's a big difference in where Espo's theoretical ranking is, if we start to imagine he's scoring that much less. It goes from "almost Lemieux-like" to quite beatable.

This represents an 18% decline in production and I think that's the bare minimum he's looking at.

Of course, as you alluded to, we're just talking about "raw" numbers and the deeper numbers are less flattering. I've fiddled with the 1968-1975 numbers for hours and with Orr having an R-on of 2.19 and R-off of 1.10 and Espo 1.64 and 1.41 over those years, it's clear that they didn't actually spend a heck of a lot of ES time on the ice together (or their numbers would mirror eachother a lot more). The best estimate I can come up with is that the team was 2.28 with both on the ice, 2.15 with only Orr, 1.22 with only Espo, and 1.02 with neither.

Not that any of this matters, since he's getting voted in. I voted him in myself, and I probably cast the 2nd or 3rd-lowest vote for him.

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Old
11-19-2013, 11:07 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I have to say, I've never heard someone claim that raw PPGA is the best way to evaluate a PK unit.
me neither.

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Old
11-20-2013, 12:16 AM
  #311
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'd say that's actually a good-sized sample. I mean, let's be honest, if this study showed that his PPG didn't change at all, it would be used as evidence in his favour, not brushed off as a small sample.

1.35 PPG is still awesome, but it's not otherworldly. Sakic did this well over an 8-year period and the league was much lower scoring (and he was good defensively). Yzerman topped that by a fair margin. Clarke's best 8-year period saw him average 1.22 PPG while being infinitely more valuable at the other end of the rink. Trottier averaged 1.42 in his best 8-year period which should make him a slam dunk better player considering his own intangibles. There's a big difference in where Espo's theoretical ranking is, if we start to imagine he's scoring that much less. It goes from "almost Lemieux-like" to quite beatable.

This represents an 18% decline in production and I think that's the bare minimum he's looking at.

Of course, as you alluded to, we're just talking about "raw" numbers and the deeper numbers are less flattering. I've fiddled with the 1968-1975 numbers for hours and with Orr having an R-on of 2.19 and R-off of 1.10 and Espo 1.64 and 1.41 over those years, it's clear that they didn't actually spend a heck of a lot of ES time on the ice together (or their numbers would mirror eachother a lot more). The best estimate I can come up with is that the team was 2.28 with both on the ice, 2.15 with only Orr, 1.22 with only Espo, and 1.02 with neither.

Not that any of this matters, since he's getting voted in. I voted him in myself, and I probably cast the 2nd or 3rd-lowest vote for him.
Trottier certainly did not average 1.42 when Potvin was injured. In fact, his stats took a nosedive (which is the basis of the argument for Potvin being the straw that stirred the Islanders drink).

The problem with looking at Espo's numbers without Orr is you're assuming that the Bruins wouldn't find another (lesser) offensive defensman to take Orr's place

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Old
11-20-2013, 12:43 AM
  #312
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Trottier certainly did not average 1.42 when Potvin was injured. In fact, his stats took a nosedive (which is the basis of the argument for Potvin being the straw that stirred the Islanders drink).

The problem with looking at Espo's numbers without Orr is you're assuming that the Bruins wouldn't find another (lesser) offensive defensman to take Orr's place
And of course they did put Carol Vadnais in that role after acquiring him from the Seals. There probably isn't a big sample of games in Espo's career with Vadnais in and Orr out, but that is definitely how V was used by the Bruins when Bobby was hurting.

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11-20-2013, 12:45 AM
  #313
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And of course they did put Carol Vadnais in that role after acquiring him from the Seals. There probably isn't a big sample of games in Espo's career with Vadnais in and Orr out, but that is definitely how V was used by the Bruins when Bobby was hurting.
I suppose that if one were so inclined, they could separate Espo's stats without Orr into whether Vadnais was there or not.

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11-20-2013, 12:46 AM
  #314
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Trottier certainly did not average 1.42 when Potvin was injured. In fact, his stats took a nosedive (which is the basis of the argument for Potvin being the straw that stirred the Islanders drink).

The problem with looking at Espo's numbers without Orr is you're assuming that the Bruins wouldn't find another (lesser) offensive defensman to take Orr's place
That's the small problem but it could go both ways too, no doubt a lesser AHL type of Dmen stepped in when Orr was out?

In addition, there is another possible residual Orr affect, something akin to when a guy is traded to a new team or gets called up from the minors and goes on a hot run but anyways the Phil stuff will be over, I think I had him 5th and it sounds like most guys will have him in their top 4.

I still think there is a strong case for Setve over Phil but he will be up next round I think.

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Old
11-20-2013, 01:05 AM
  #315
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The problem with looking at Espo's numbers without Orr is you're assuming that the Bruins wouldn't find another (lesser) offensive defensman to take Orr's place
Im not following you at all here. Who would they just "find" to replace Orr, a franchise player? Brad Park type perhaps? Keith Magnusson?... fact is Im finding this argument that somehow Orr was responsible for Esposito's otherwordly stats beyond specious regardless so sure. Lets exchange Orr for Brad or Keith. Neither one of which btw who wouldve ever been given the freedom of rein, the headroom to engage in the offense if not for Orr in the first place. Rushing defensemen, nothing new to the extent that Managers & Coaches were manipulating the game circa 1966 when Orr broke in and it was absolutely de rigueur back then. Carl Brewer railed against it, left the game in large part to being handcuffed in that department. You simply did not venture beyond the Blue-Line. But to suggest Orr was doing what? Banking shots off of Esposito's Northland? Sorry, not getting it.

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12-27-2013, 06:54 PM
  #316
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He isn't in my top 4 as his dominance seems to be either

A) too related to Orr or

B) his start and finish to his career, ie his time outside of Boston is weaker than many others in this round.

If one is primarily a peak guy and thinks that Esposito has similar seasons without Orr, or at least nothing drastically less, then I can see him in the top 4 but I don't see it.

It's just too easy to put him first by simply looking at the numbers, if one looks closely there are enough questions and red flags for Phil IMO.
Isnt there a red flag for trottier though? In 1980 Bryan was in the middle of his prime and his point totals dropped by 30 points due to Potvin's injury. Once bossy retired, trottier's offense just disappeared.

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12-27-2013, 07:22 PM
  #317
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Trottier was a poven point player before Boosy and your right that Bossy retiring hurt Trootier but Brian was not the player he was years past

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12-27-2013, 08:46 PM
  #318
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Isnt there a red flag for trottier though? In 1980 Bryan was in the middle of his prime and his point totals dropped by 30 points due to Potvin's injury. Once bossy retired, trottier's offense just disappeared.
There are simply more red flags or questions about Phil than Bryan

1) bryan had a much more complete game so his counting stats aren't as important to his resume as they are to Phil's

2) Bryan had a 90 plus point season before Bossy arrived and yes Potvin was the straw that stirred the drink in NYI but Bryan wasn't as dependent on Denis as Phil was on Orr IMO.

3) Bryan was 32 and after 13 NHL seasons fell off the cliff stat wise so he doesn't have the longevity of other offensively like Phil for instance but Phil was simply padding hiss tats in NYR, he was an ES albatross basically.

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12-27-2013, 10:01 PM
  #319
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There are simply more red flags or questions about Phil than Bryan

1) bryan had a much more complete game so his counting stats aren't as important to his resume as they are to Phil's

2) Bryan had a 90 plus point season before Bossy arrived and yes Potvin was the straw that stirred the drink in NYI but Bryan wasn't as dependent on Denis as Phil was on Orr IMO.

3) Bryan was 32 and after 13 NHL seasons fell off the cliff stat wise so he doesn't have the longevity of other offensively like Phil for instance but Phil was simply padding hiss tats in NYR, he was an ES albatross basically.
Yeah, its funny you say that because when I talk to islanders fans, they say trottier and potvin had different offensive and defensive peaks. When trottier was putting up those point totals in 1978 and 1979, he wasnt playing bobby clarke level defense, if thats what youre trying to suggest. He became the defensive stud from 81 and onwards.

At least phil has the 1968 and 1969 season, where he was an offensive monster before Orr properly devloped, and orr missed alot of games in those years.

Trottier's totals dipped by 30 points in 1980 without potvin, thats a massive gap and it happened right in the middle of his prime, he also had bossy to play with. I just feel you are singling out Espo when he was elite in 68 and 69, Trottier was more dependent on potvin/bossy in my opinion and he was less durable.

In my opinion, Messier-Trottier-Esposito all lucked out in terms of being in favourable situations. This is where Sakic and Yzerman compare favourably to them, they were superstars in their own right and developed on their own. Crosby will continue to climb higher on my list because he developed on his own and did it at a much faster rate than either sakic or yzerman. Afer gretzky-mario-beliveau-mikita, there is a monstrous gap in my opinion and I expect Sid to take the 5th spot if he remains healthy. He's a better player than the sakics-messiers-yzermans.


Last edited by ushvinder: 12-27-2013 at 10:11 PM.
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12-27-2013, 11:22 PM
  #320
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Yeah, its funny you say that because when I talk to islanders fans, they say trottier and potvin had different offensive and defensive peaks. When trottier was putting up those point totals in 1978 and 1979, he wasnt playing bobby clarke level defense, if thats what youre trying to suggest. He became the defensive stud from 81 and onwards.

At least phil has the 1968 and 1969 season, where he was an offensive monster before Orr properly devloped, and orr missed alot of games in those years.

Trottier's totals dipped by 30 points in 1980 without potvin, thats a massive gap and it happened right in the middle of his prime, he also had bossy to play with. I just feel you are singling out Espo when he was elite in 68 and 69, Trottier was more dependent on potvin/bossy in my opinion and he was less durable.

In my opinion, Messier-Trottier-Esposito all lucked out in terms of being in favourable situations. This is where Sakic and Yzerman compare favourably to them, they were superstars in their own right and developed on their own. Crosby will continue to climb higher on my list because he developed on his own and did it at a much faster rate than either sakic or yzerman. Afer gretzky-mario-beliveau-mikita, there is a monstrous gap in my opinion and I expect Sid to take the 5th spot if he remains healthy. He's a better player than the sakics-messiers-yzermans.
I agree with the Sid ceiling but think that Phil probably had the most "luck" or help in achieving his greatness compared to Moose and Trotts for instance.

Like I said before in this thread Phil; has more questions and red flags around his offensive game or explosion, ie poor playoff scoring in Chicago, so so offensive numbers there despite playing ES with Bobby Hull, and a huge dependence on Orr, Ratelle doing much better in Boston after the trade despite being 2 years older than Phil......

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12-27-2013, 11:41 PM
  #321
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Like I said before in this thread Phil; has more questions and red flags around his offensive game or explosion, ie poor playoff scoring in Chicago, so so offensive numbers there despite playing ES with Bobby Hull, and a huge dependence on Orr, Ratelle doing much better in Boston after the trade despite being 2 years older than Phil......
Weve discussed this before.... Phil Esposito's job in Chicago was to feed Hull the puck. He was supposed to compliment & flatter #9's role on the team & in the league as the ultimate power foward & scoring champion. Esposito wasnt allowed to be free-lancing & shooting himself. Pass to Bobby. Secondly, for whatever reasons, Coach Billy Reay just didnt seem to have a lot of confidence in Espo, Phil felt it, was playing it by the book and doing exactly what he was told to do as he was walking on eggshells as he didnt wanna be sent back down to the minors. The trade was an absolute Godsend for the guy.... and not sure what your point is about Ratelle. Jean Ratelle was a classy player, steady, not spectacular, but a real craftsman, professor.

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12-27-2013, 11:51 PM
  #322
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Weve discussed this before.... Phil Esposito's job in Chicago was to feed Hull the puck. He was supposed to compliment & flatter #9's role on the team & in the league as the ultimate power foward & scoring champion. Esposito wasnt allowed to be free-lancing & shooting himself. Pass to Bobby. Secondly, for whatever reasons, Coach Billy Reay just didnt seem to have a lot of confidence in Espo, Phil felt it, was playing it by the book and doing exactly what he was told to do as he was walking on eggshells as he didnt wanna be sent back down to the minors. The trade was an absolute Godsend for the guy.... and not sure what your point is about Ratelle. Jean Ratelle was a classy player, steady, not spectacular, but a real craftsman, professor.
Like I said more red flags surround Phil than Bryan for me and his role doesn't explain his extremely weak playoffs with the Black Hawks at all.

As for the Jean comp, jean aged better than Phil, after they were swapped fro each other despite being 2 years older, part of that is team oriented...perhaps.

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