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Old
01-05-2014, 10:09 AM
  #51
Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
And look at all the points Kadri and Gagner were on pace for last year. I suppose they're first line players too?

I really enjoyed lasts season. I enjoyed watching my team move forward with a rookie coach about a month into this season I realized that the performances of any and all players who didn't make the playoffs meant absolutely nothing.

Sadly, Kadri(if you're a Leafs fan) is on pace for only 46 points and a whopping -22 while Gagner(if you're an Oil fan) is on pace for 30 points and get this...... you're not going to believe it... .MINUS 40!!!!!! AHHHHH!!!! *Pulls hair out*

Anyhoo to help you understand how much more Buff is worth. Let's look at simple stats here.

Buff averages 26 minutes per game.
Simmonds averages 16 minutes per game.

While Buff's -11 is worse than Simmonds' -4, Buff plays a lot more minutes. There are very few d-men in the NHL who should be playing that many minutes and Buff does it while being on pace for 60 points. 1/3 of them being on the PP.

Anyone in Philly's position would be crazy to turn this down because there aren't ANY other 6"5 265 pound players capable of putting up 60 points and clearing the net while playing 26 minutes per game.

A player of Buff caliber is not comparable to any of the pieces coming from Philly in the OP and that's exactly why I think that Philly fans are the last who could say they're not getting the better end of this deal.
Kadri and Gagner both did that once, in a shortened season... not consistently, and dropped back down to usual/expected this year.

Gagner is a 45-50 point forward.
Kadri... who knows yet frankly, but most likely he is 50-60 player.

Simmonds hit 28 goals 2 years ago, paced for 27 last year and is pacing for 27 again this year.

Simmonds get stick around here... but we know what he is, a 2nd liner who is a PP specialist, can fight as well as most in the NHL PFP, is gritty and has his heart on his sleeve and will likely net 25-25-50~ most years.

If you take minutes in relation to +/- further and simply look at +/- per 60 and GAOn/60 Byfuglien is among the worst each year for top 4 D men in the NHL.

Amongst the ~90-110 guys who play 16+ mins EV a night in the NHL (so 20+ minutes overall, basically top 4 Dmen) Byfuglien has been in the bottom 30% in +/-/60 each of the last three years, and among the worst 10 in GAOn/60 each year as well.

2013-14: +/-/60 (72/90) GAOn/60 (84/90)
2012-13: +/-/60 (85/105) GAOn/60 (96/105)
2011-12: +/-/60 (85/109) GAOn/60 (109/109)

Basically he has been amongst the worst 10 top 4 Dmen from a defensive standpoint in the NHL... and has been that 'consistently'. And even putting up all those points he is still awful when it comes to +/-/60 compared to his peers.

His offence really does not cover his defensive liabilities... I would rather have a 35-40 point D man who can play D and play 2nd PP than a 55 point guy who does not know how to play effective defence... and is reallllllly big.

That is the reason he was never even close to being in discussion for Sochi.

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Old
01-05-2014, 10:09 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
And look at all the points Kadri and Gagner were on pace for last year. I suppose they're first line players too?

I really enjoyed lasts season. I enjoyed watching my team move forward with a rookie coach about a month into this season I realized that the performances of any and all players who didn't make the playoffs meant absolutely nothing.

Sadly, Kadri(if you're a Leafs fan) is on pace for only 46 points and a whopping -22 while Gagner(if you're an Oil fan) is on pace for 30 points and get this...... you're not going to believe it... .MINUS 40!!!!!! AHHHHH!!!! *Pulls hair out*

Anyhoo to help you understand how much more Buff is worth. Let's look at simple stats here.

Buff averages 26 minutes per game.
Simmonds averages 16 minutes per game.

While Buff's -11 is worse than Simmonds' -4, Buff plays a lot more minutes. There are very few d-men in the NHL who should be playing that many minutes and Buff does it while being on pace for 60 points. 1/3 of them being on the PP.

Anyone in Philly's position would be crazy to turn this down because there aren't ANY other 6"5 265 pound players capable of putting up 60 points and clearing the net while playing 26 minutes per game.

A player of Buff caliber is not comparable to any of the pieces coming from Philly in the OP and that's exactly why I think that Philly fans are the last who could say they're not getting the better end of this deal.
So you choose to disregard last years stats for Simmonds, and this years, and 2 years ago. So you ythink it's more relevant to use 3 years ago stats for Simmonds when he was a 15 goal guy? Makes no sense.

Over the past 3 years, Simmonds has average or paced 27 goals in a season. He is 33rd in goals over that time. He is not some throwing. Don't come to a Philly forum and talk about a crappy offer then try and defend it.

And if Buff is all that, why are Jets fans looking to trade him so bad? Build around your great #1 dman. We would much rather have Trouba or Enstrom.

Edit: Now you did it, Appleyard is now involved. You are toast!

FWIW, Apple, you have by far some of the best info I see on HF. Glad to have you on our side!

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01-05-2014, 10:14 AM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Kadri and Gagner both did that once, in a shortened season... not consistently, and dropped back down to usual/expected this year.

Gagner is a 45-50 point forward.
Kadri... who knows yet frankly, but most likely he is 50-60 player.

Simmonds hit 28 goals 2 years ago, paced for 27 last year and is pacing for 27 again this year.

Simmonds get stick around here... but we know what he is, a 2nd liner who is a PP specialist, can fight as well as most in the NHL PFP, is gritty and has his heart on his sleeve and will likely net 25-25-50~ most years.

If you take minutes in relation to +/- further and simply look at +/- per 60 and GAOn/60 Byfuglien is among the worst each year for top 4 D men in the NHL.

Amongst the ~90-110 guys who play 16+ mins EV a night in the NHL (so 20+ minutes overall, basically top 4 Dmen) Byfuglien has been in the bottom 30% in +/-/60 each of the last three years, and among the worst 10 in GAOn/60 each year as well.

2013-14: +/-/60 (72/90) GAOn/60 (84/90)
2012-13: +/-/60 (85/105) GAOn/60 (96/105)
2011-12: +/-/60 (85/109) GAOn/60 (109/109)

Basically he has been amongst the worst 10 top 4 Dmen from a defensive standpoint in the NHL... and has been that 'consistently'. And even putting up all those points he is still awful when it comes to +/-/60 compared to his peers.

His offence really does not cover his defensive liabilities... I would rather have a 35-40 point D man who can play D and play 2nd PP than a 55 point guy who does not know how to play effective defence... and is reallllllly big.

That is the reason he was never even close to being in discussion for Sochi.
He is the defendant equivalent to what Danny Briere was. Good on PP, bad at ES.

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01-05-2014, 10:18 AM
  #54
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How about this proposal: The Jets keep Buff for another two and half seasons, miss the playoffs three more times, and then lose him for nothing in free agency.

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01-05-2014, 11:45 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Kadri and Gagner both did that once, in a shortened season... not consistently, and dropped back down to usual/expected this year.

Gagner is a 45-50 point forward.
Kadri... who knows yet frankly, but most likely he is 50-60 player.

Simmonds hit 28 goals 2 years ago, paced for 27 last year and is pacing for 27 again this year.

Simmonds get stick around here... but we know what he is, a 2nd liner who is a PP specialist, can fight as well as most in the NHL PFP, is gritty and has his heart on his sleeve and will likely net 25-25-50~ most years.

If you take minutes in relation to +/- further and simply look at +/- per 60 and GAOn/60 Byfuglien is among the worst each year for top 4 D men in the NHL.

Amongst the ~90-110 guys who play 16+ mins EV a night in the NHL (so 20+ minutes overall, basically top 4 Dmen) Byfuglien has been in the bottom 30% in +/-/60 each of the last three years, and among the worst 10 in GAOn/60 each year as well.

2013-14: +/-/60 (72/90) GAOn/60 (84/90)
2012-13: +/-/60 (85/105) GAOn/60 (96/105)
2011-12: +/-/60 (85/109) GAOn/60 (109/109)

Basically he has been amongst the worst 10 top 4 Dmen from a defensive standpoint in the NHL... and has been that 'consistently'. And even putting up all those points he is still awful when it comes to +/-/60 compared to his peers.

His offence really does not cover his defensive liabilities... I would rather have a 35-40 point D man who can play D and play 2nd PP than a 55 point guy who does not know how to play effective defence... and is reallllllly big.

That is the reason he was never even close to being in discussion for Sochi.
Nice to see someone finally pull some advanced stats. Semi-advanced anyways. I guess it wasn't worth pulling out some corsi, fenwick, fenwick close, 5v5 or wowy stats, seeing as they contradict your position.

Also Buff was close enough to being in discussion that he was attended summer training camp. If he cried in the press about it like Bobby Ryan, do you think that would have made him seem "closer?" Are only olympians fit for your roster? When are you planning on getting one?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
He is the defendant equivalent to what Danny Briere was. Good on PP, bad at ES.
Actually, that's not what those stats tell you. I guess you assume everyone is as overwhelmed by the big numbers as you are, hey?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
How about this proposal: The Jets keep Buff for another two and half seasons, miss the playoffs three more times, and then lose him for nothing in free agency.
Someone's still bitter, hey? It's already been 2 years, 2 months 9 days and 7 hours since it happened.

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Old
01-05-2014, 12:50 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heilongjetsfan View Post
Nice to see someone finally pull some advanced stats. Semi-advanced anyways. I guess it wasn't worth pulling out some corsi, fenwick, fenwick close, 5v5 or wowy stats, seeing as they contradict your position.

Also Buff was close enough to being in discussion that he was attended summer training camp. If he cried in the press about it like Bobby Ryan, do you think that would have made him seem "closer?" Are only olympians fit for your roster? When are you planning on getting one?



Actually, that's not what those stats tell you. I guess you assume everyone is as overwhelmed by the big numbers as you are, hey?



Someone's still bitter, hey? It's already been 2 years, 2 months 9 days and 7 hours since it happened.
His other advanced stats show he faces hard competition. However, he does TERRIBLY against that competition. That's all there is to it. Coburn faces hard competition. He does pretty well. Far better than Buff. So, what the Flyers really need is to keep the one dman who can stay afloat against hard competition instead of trading him for the guy who's drowning in it.

Let's get the facts straight here:

1) Buff is good at offense.

2) Buff is so so bad defensively it offsets that.

3) Buff is a fatty fathead.

4) Considering points 1-3, there's no reason for the Flyers to trade a solid defensive guy AND a player like Simmonds, while adding picks on top, for a 1 dimensional player. That trade instantly makes the Flyers worse. We need offense from the blueline, yes. But we don't need it at the cost of defensive ability, and we don't need to poke more holes in our offensive ability to boot while doing so. We need a #1 Dman....Buff is far from being that guy.

Buff pulling #1 duties for the Jets doesn't reflect well on Buff at all. If anything it reflects poorly on Winnipeg's defense, if that's the best you can cart out against other team's top lines. I mean, it's absolutely hilarious to look at his GAOFF/60 and see how little other teams score when he's on the bench compared to when he's on the ice.

Please. Keep Buff instead of trying to shill him here for some overpayment that isn't possible because none of us are Paul Holmgren.

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Old
01-05-2014, 01:39 PM
  #57
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These Buff proposals are almost as good as the Edler proposals. Though if anything the Edler ones are more reasonable, and I think I'd rather have Edler.

Buff would definitely help the Flyers, I'm not down on him the way a lot of fans are. He's not perfect, but adding him to the current group would be an upgrade. He'd get Meszaros out of the lineup, he'd get a forward off the point on the PP, and with the right partner his weaknesses could be masked a bit. But the right partner would be heading to Winnipeg in this scenario, which makes it a lateral move at best, and that's before we throw in our picks and power forward.

And speaking of said power forward, his stats are somewhat similar to another power forward, one who plays for the Jets. The one whose price on the main board is something like Crosby + Malkin + 1st.

I assume the Jets are sellers...I'd offer Luke + 2015 1st for Buff. Obviously the Jets pass, but that's as high as I go.

It just doesn't make sense for any team to pay big for Byfuglien. For what he brings I'd much prefer Yandle who's also a pretty one-dimensional offensive d-man but he can skate.

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01-05-2014, 08:14 PM
  #58
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Buff vs the Pens today made Mezz look like a Orr Bourque hybrid.

We would have a stroke if he was here and had to play the Pens 6 times, **** he was awful

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01-05-2014, 08:43 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Bennysflyers16 View Post
Buff vs the Pens today made Mezz look like a Orr Bourque hybrid.

We would have a stroke if he was here and had to play the Pens 6 times, **** he was awful
Buff would be able to do no wrong if he was here with some. They would be blaming his defensive partner.

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01-05-2014, 09:26 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
And look at all the points Kadri and Gagner were on pace for last year. I suppose they're first line players too?

I really enjoyed lasts season. I enjoyed watching my team move forward with a rookie coach about a month into this season I realized that the performances of any and all players who didn't make the playoffs meant absolutely nothing.

Sadly, Kadri(if you're a Leafs fan) is on pace for only 46 points and a whopping -22 while Gagner(if you're an Oil fan) is on pace for 30 points and get this...... you're not going to believe it... .MINUS 40!!!!!! AHHHHH!!!! *Pulls hair out*

Anyhoo to help you understand how much more Buff is worth. Let's look at simple stats here.

Buff averages 26 minutes per game.
Simmonds averages 16 minutes per game.

While Buff's -11 is worse than Simmonds' -4, Buff plays a lot more minutes. There are very few d-men in the NHL who should be playing that many minutes and Buff does it while being on pace for 60 points. 1/3 of them being on the PP.

Anyone in Philly's position would be crazy to turn this down because there aren't ANY other 6"5 265 pound players capable of putting up 60 points and clearing the net while playing 26 minutes per game.

A player of Buff caliber is not comparable to any of the pieces coming from Philly in the OP and that's exactly why I think that Philly fans are the last who could say they're not getting the better end of this deal.
You just said Simmonds was "far from" a consistent 25-goal scorer. In his 169 games since he joined the Flyers, he paces for 27.6 goals per 82 and has only missed 3 games.

If you are going to discount Simmonds for not reaching full-season benchmarks a half-season after a lockout that killed almost half of last season, I guess we can say there's no such thing as a consistent 65-point scorer or a consistent 35-goal scorer or a consistent 25-game winner in the entire NHL, because no one has reached any of those benchmarks since April 2012, either.

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01-05-2014, 09:37 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Kadri and Gagner both did that once, in a shortened season... not consistently, and dropped back down to usual/expected this year.

Gagner is a 45-50 point forward.
Kadri... who knows yet frankly, but most likely he is 50-60 player.

Simmonds hit 28 goals 2 years ago, paced for 27 last year and is pacing for 27 again this year.

Simmonds get stick around here... but we know what he is, a 2nd liner who is a PP specialist, can fight as well as most in the NHL PFP, is gritty and has his heart on his sleeve and will likely net 25-25-50~ most years.

If you take minutes in relation to +/- further and simply look at +/- per 60 and GAOn/60 Byfuglien is among the worst each year for top 4 D men in the NHL.

Amongst the ~90-110 guys who play 16+ mins EV a night in the NHL (so 20+ minutes overall, basically top 4 Dmen) Byfuglien has been in the bottom 30% in +/-/60 each of the last three years, and among the worst 10 in GAOn/60 each year as well.

2013-14: +/-/60 (72/90) GAOn/60 (84/90)
2012-13: +/-/60 (85/105) GAOn/60 (96/105)
2011-12: +/-/60 (85/109) GAOn/60 (109/109)

Basically he has been amongst the worst 10 top 4 Dmen from a defensive standpoint in the NHL... and has been that 'consistently'. And even putting up all those points he is still awful when it comes to +/-/60 compared to his peers.

His offence really does not cover his defensive liabilities... I would rather have a 35-40 point D man who can play D and play 2nd PP than a 55 point guy who does not know how to play effective defence... and is reallllllly big.

That is the reason he was never even close to being in discussion for Sochi.
Winnipeg has bad goaltending. Also Byfuglien was clearly "in the discussion" for Sochi if you read the Burnside article.

You're probably underrating him as badly as the OP is overrating him. Byfuglien holds his own in Corsi, Fenwick and shots against tough quality of competition, plus he gives you surplus value on the PP.

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01-05-2014, 09:41 PM
  #62
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To the OP, all ragging aside, the Flyers are in a very awkward place with our d-core right now. We badly need a replacement for Timonen who will most likely walk in the next season or two, if not this year at the deadline in a trade then in retirement in the offseason. We badly need a guy like Buf who can work the blueline offensively to replace Kimmo, but we cant afford to make that upgrade at the cost of a Coburn. If you watched Flyers games closely you would see that it would be a lateral move at best moving our best defensive d-man for a better offensive one that seriously lacks defensive skills (as posters like Appleyard have already established). While we could part with Simmonds there's no reason at all to do so for the package you have suggested, its just not feasible right now. Our cupboard is shaping up nicely with young d-men but they are years away, and as always the Flyers are in win now mode. Our only option then is to do what Homer has been doign and rebuild the d-core on the fly (See: Streit signing). I think you're on the right track with the Buf trade but leave off Coburn and we can talk. Honestly I dont think there's a trade to be had here, except perhaps for E. Kane

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01-05-2014, 10:26 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
How about this proposal: The Jets keep Buff for another two and half seasons, miss the playoffs three more times, and then lose him for nothing in free agency.
good idea

I wouldn't worry about Byfuglien becoming a Flyer. Holmgren wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. Nor would most GMs for all of the reasons given in this thread.

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01-05-2014, 11:05 PM
  #64
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fatty fathead...hahahahahaha

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01-06-2014, 08:37 AM
  #65
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fatty fathead...hahahahahaha
As much as I'd like to play homer, and pretend I'm offended, yeah he kinda is a fatty fathead and that was funny. Quite frankly, if Buff was playing to his full potential, we wouldn't be having this convo. We'd be talking about how Bogo's NMC isn't such a serious deal because Philly is a hockey hotbed and it's one of the US markets that almost any player would be perfectly happy being sent to. Winters aren't too crazy, fans love hockey, media is nuts, but not Canada nuts. He'd probably waive it to be a flyer. Fact is we've got low low low quality coaching and they're never going to get more out of Buff than he feels like giving. I think it might not be the case in Philly.

How about we go like this from here on out: if you've already piped in about how buff doesn't belong in Philly, ok, you've spoken your piece, now with respect, ****. This thread isn't for you, it's for me. We've your got your opinion already and unless it's changed, how about don't suffer the rest of us to read it again, sounds good?

If you want to let me know what would be a more reasonable payment for buff, or what you'd rather have from our team for a combination of the needs already stated (legit 2LHD and a legit top 9 winger), I'd really really really like to hear it.

So far the majority of responses have basically translated to 'erp, yer a idjit.' Is an entire fanbase really incapable of a mock negotiation?

Maybe we'll just pull that Wheeler for Maata trade the Pens (Shero, not fans) keep begging us for and let them knock the soap out of your hand (again) this spring.

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01-06-2014, 09:00 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by heilongjetsfan View Post
As much as I'd like to play homer, and pretend I'm offended, yeah he kinda is a fatty fathead and that was funny. Quite frankly, if Buff was playing to his full potential, we wouldn't be having this convo. We'd be talking about how Bogo's NMC isn't such a serious deal because Philly is a hockey hotbed and it's one of the US markets that almost any player would be perfectly happy being sent to. Winters aren't too crazy, fans love hockey, media is nuts, but not Canada nuts. He'd probably waive it to be a flyer. Fact is we've got low low low quality coaching and they're never going to get more out of Buff than he feels like giving. I think it might not be the case in Philly.

How about we go like this from here on out: if you've already piped in about how buff doesn't belong in Philly, ok, you've spoken your piece, now with respect, ****. This thread isn't for you, it's for me. We've your got your opinion already and unless it's changed, how about don't suffer the rest of us to read it again, sounds good?

If you want to let me know what would be a more reasonable payment for buff, or what you'd rather have from our team for a combination of the needs already stated (legit 2LHD and a legit top 9 winger), I'd really really really like to hear it.

So far the majority of responses have basically translated to 'erp, yer a idjit.' Is an entire fanbase really incapable of a mock negotiation?

Maybe we'll just pull that Wheeler for Maata trade the Pens (Shero, not fans) keep begging us for and let them knock the soap out of your hand (again) this spring.
You came to the Flyers board, made an outrageous proposal, and now you're getting mad when people don't jump on board and play along with your little game.

Buff is a great player, but you have to understand why some people would hesitate to give up a huge package to get him. His health concerns aren't the only reasons either. He's prone to bad turnovers and gets lost in coverage quite frequently.

And lol at the Pens trade. Chevy... is that you?

I gues you'll have to jump on that Pens bandwagon, seeing as how the Jets will be golfing come spring time... again.

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01-06-2014, 11:35 AM
  #67
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Not a chance.

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01-06-2014, 11:48 AM
  #68
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I've hated Byfuglien ever since the 2010 SCF

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01-06-2014, 12:22 PM
  #69
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I've always thought Big Buff was quite a unique asset and at one point would have been a good addition for the club. There isn't a spot for his game here now.

Between his attitude, sloppy defence and consistency I wouldn't pay the proposed price for him. Just doesn't add up here. Simply can't afford to weaken our defensive play on the back end.

Nice highlight-reel hatrick of gamebreaking giveaways against the Pens for him last night too. Just what we need.

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01-06-2014, 01:05 PM
  #70
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How about we go like this from here on out: if you've already piped in about how buff doesn't belong in Philly, ok, you've spoken your piece, now with respect, ****. This thread isn't for you, it's for me. We've your got your opinion already and unless it's changed, how about don't suffer the rest of us to read it again, sounds good?

I seriously LOLed when I read this.

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01-06-2014, 01:11 PM
  #71
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as much as dislike Coburn at times I would never do the deal proposed in the OP. When Coburn is on he is better then Byfuglien defensively. Sure Byfuglien can provide more offense but this team would be far worse in its own end. Right now Timonen and Coburn are the only 2 defenseman i trust in their own end.
I am not going to deny the Flyers need to find someone who can provide offense from the backend but I dont think Byfuglien is the answer.
This summer the Flyers once again will be looking for defensive help next offseason. Hopefully they stay far away from Byfuglien.

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01-06-2014, 01:31 PM
  #72
DrinkFightFlyers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I seriously LOLed when I read this.

"If you disagree with me go away!"
I wish I would have thought of that. Imagine all the time and effort you and I (and Jester) could have saved going back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and back and forth...

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01-06-2014, 01:48 PM
  #73
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Buff brings a lot of things the Flyers could use. There are very few defensmen in the league who can bring the type of offense he does from the blueline. He has a booming shot that he gets on net with frequency and is a potent catalyst in the offensive zone. He's pretty good on breakouts with decent passing and puck carrying out of the D zone. If paired with a competent defensive D man (Coburn if still here/Grossmann) and the team D is where it needs to be, Buff's defensive liabilites can be mostly mitigated. I think his "fat" issues are overblown. You simply can't be that out of shape when you're playing 25 mins a game in the NHL and producing points like he does. For what it's worth, Buff reportedly came into camp slimmed down a bit and with a better attitude.

Personally, I think Buff would be a better addition to the Flyers than most on here seem to think. For me it's a question of price. Coburn + Simmonds + picks seems a bit steep...I'd go something like Coburn + Hartnell (if he'd waive) + 2014 4th rd 2015 3rd. Or Coburn + Cousins or Leier and a 2nd...wouldn't want to part with younger pieces of the core the Flyers are building (Simmonds/Schenn/Couturier/Laughton).

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01-06-2014, 02:01 PM
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Getting rid of our best defensive defenseman for a guy like Buff is a truly awful idea. Coburn would have to be the guy playing with him, covering for his aggressiveness and giveaways.

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01-06-2014, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
Getting rid of our best defensive defenseman for a guy like Buff is a truly awful idea. Coburn would have to be the guy playing with him, covering for his aggressiveness and giveaways.
Not necessarily...Grossmann, Schenn, if it were either on of them, would know it was their role to have Buff's backside, not to mention the high forward.

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