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Games Remaining. Magic numbers.

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Old
01-21-2007, 07:48 PM
  #1
n8
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Games Remaining. Magic numbers.

somewhere around 100 points is the new inflated benchmark for making the playoffs. Looking at what games we have left, the Rangers don't have a very rough schedule. Currently at 50 points, we need another 50 to secure 100 which translates into about 1.5 points per game. Or, winning 3 out of every 4. Or whatever combination of 6 points every 4 games. Or we can only afford to lose (no points) 9 games. Detroit, Atlanta, Jersey, and perhaps Montreal & Ottawa worry me the most. Against those teams, we play a total of 9 games.

The trade deadline is Feb 27th, by which time 14 games will have been played. 1 vs Det. 3 vs. NJ. Games against Montreal, Ottawa, and Atlanta (5 total) will remain. In those 14 games, The Rangers will have needed to pick up about 21 points to keep pace. A pretty daunting task. There is just as much room to be optimistic as there is room for pessimism. How far ahead/behind hopefully will be taken into consideration as to what trades the kind fellow in my avatar will be making. Hopefully, he waits to at least the 24 (last game we play before the trade deadline) to get a better picture of how realistic it will be to make the playoffs.

Eventually someone might want to start up an official magic number thread.

Philly* 4
Fishsticks* 4
Debs 3
Penguins 4

Leafs* 2
Boston* 3
Habs 3
Sens 1

Washington* 1
Tampa 2
Carolina 2
Atlanta 1

Detroit 1
Columbus* 1
St Louis* 1
Chicago* 1

* less points than Rangers

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Old
01-21-2007, 07:50 PM
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I'm pretty sure that 95 points does the trick. That breaks down to 1.3 points/game over the final 34. The key is to stop the regulation losses. Those are killers. If you lose in OT or SO it's huge as far as maintaining that ratio.


Last edited by broadwayblue: 01-21-2007 at 07:55 PM.
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Old
01-21-2007, 07:58 PM
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I had originally thought...

that something in the mid-80s would get it (thought that early in the season), but over the last month+, there has been an inordinate amount of 'ties' among conference games. I mean inordinate. These 'ties' are making the race extremely close.

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01-21-2007, 08:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
that something in the mid-80s would get it (thought that early in the season), but over the last month+, there has been an inordinate amount of 'ties' among conference games. I mean inordinate. These 'ties' are making the race extremely close.
mid-80s is from the days where overtime losses got you nothing. since that has been implemented, teams making the playoffs have gotten way more points. we had 101 points last season and that only got us the 6th seed in our conference for example.

95 might be enough but there is some stiff competition this year. at 100, it sure makes the math easier to do where 1.47 points per game is roughly 1.5 and just in case.

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01-21-2007, 08:14 PM
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It's currently 89 points. See Rodents RealStandings.

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01-21-2007, 08:16 PM
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Fletch
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When I had looked...

about 6-8 weeks ago, that seemed to have been the number; before certain teams got hot and pushed up the expected number, based on an extrapolation of today's number.

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Old
01-21-2007, 08:27 PM
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abev
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It's probably best the Rangers plan on at least 93 points. Anything less leaves no room for error.

A lot can still happen, some teams will slow down, some will pick up.

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Old
01-22-2007, 02:22 AM
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I guess compared to last year, the teams in the east are playing a bit more evenly so the point spread is tighter. Anyways, 100 points will be safe. You certainly don't want to have to face Buffalo in the very first round. Jersey and Atlanta aren't so great either.

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01-22-2007, 03:58 AM
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I did the math while ago, on what the avg pts per game were.

At that time it were 1.1 pts, basically meaning that if a team plays .500 hockey it should get 11 pts in 10 games. or 90 pts in 82 games.

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01-22-2007, 09:19 AM
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The schedule certainly in favorable. But that won't mean anything unless this team can get its act together.

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01-22-2007, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
The schedule certainly in favorable. But that won't mean anything unless this team can get its act together.
Exactly!

You know things are getting bad when you have to start figuring out how many points your team would need to get into the playoffs lol. Do you think Buffalo or Anaheim fans are figuring that stuff out.

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01-22-2007, 09:27 AM
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Exactly!

You know things are getting bad when you have to start figuring out how many points your team would need to get into the playoffs lol. Do you think Buffalo or Anaheim fans are figuring that stuff out.
I certainly hope the players aren't doing that. Everyone can talk about creating a winning attitude all they want. But the fact remains, winning teams don't consider the playoffs a victory. The Devils consider the playoffs a birthright. It's what you do from that dictates whether it was a successful season or not.

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01-22-2007, 09:41 AM
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Mathematically speaking it is very simple - the more teams in contention - the lower the point minimum to make the playoffs.

So - it could be enough with 90 points if many teams still play even and are close - but it could be up to 100 points if 2-3 teams pull away fighting for the last slot

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01-22-2007, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
I certainly hope the players aren't doing that. Everyone can talk about creating a winning attitude all they want. But the fact remains, winning teams don't consider the playoffs a victory. The Devils consider the playoffs a birthright. It's what you do from that dictates whether it was a successful season or not.
Exactly! I hate the fans that say, "we made it further at least". I'm sorry, it was still the same end result.

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01-22-2007, 09:50 AM
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I honestly could care less if they make the playoffs. This roster has too many holes to make a serious run, especially on defense. They showed it last season, and its been even more profound this season. Don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for them not to make the playoffs, but I'd rather see some promotions from Hartford and significant ice time for them, living with the mistakes that are bound to occur, than making a push and playing with the same group!

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01-22-2007, 09:53 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rootin'Tyutin View Post
Exactly! I hate the fans that say, "we made it further at least". I'm sorry, it was still the same end result.
If the Rangers were playing better and they made the playoffs and won a round, I would be very happy. Becasue it would show some sort progression and improvement on last season.

That said, this was in a position to win the Atlantic as late as the second to last game of the season last year. To limp into the 8 spot would be a huge step backwards if you ask me.

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