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Preds VS Sens....1/11/2014 ( My Birthday Game)

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Old
01-11-2014, 10:42 PM
  #101
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For all of the complaints that the team doesn't score enough ... where are the complaints about allowing four or more goals 17 times so far this season ... winning only two of them? Another 8 games allowing three goals ... another two wins. That is 25 of 46 games allowing at least three goals (more than half for the math challenged) ... losing 21 of them. 21 of 27 losses came in games where the team allowed at least three goals which shows a glaring issue and not the one that gets complained about here most of the time.

Scoring two or more in 30 of 46 games ... three or more in 21 of 46 ... is meaningless when the team continually gives up too many goals. Once upon a time this was a team that could win 2-1 games ... now we need to score at least three for a reasonable hope to win. Maz has three starts with less than two goals allowed ... his one goal tonight and the two shutouts in November. 7 of his last 10 starts featured three or more goals allowed by Maz meaning our skaters need to net at least four to give the team a chance to win most nights.

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01-11-2014, 10:44 PM
  #102
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Whenever we get to the shootout, I expect to lose.

Maz is getting better. (not in the shootout---over all..)

Frustrating game. Ottawa was so freaking fast. I love how they play north south.

Ekholm's mistake happened right in front of me..... But I hope he plays tomorrow. He's not the reason for the loss.

Thought Spezza should have gotten more for jumping and pounding Clune. The jumbotron replay seemed as if Clune got hosed on that boarding call.

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01-11-2014, 10:46 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
For all of the complaints that the team doesn't score enough ... where are the complaints about allowing four or more goals 17 times so far this season ... winning only two of them? Another 8 games allowing three goals ... another two wins. That is 25 of 46 games allowing at least three goals (more than half for the math challenged) ... losing 21 of them. 21 of 27 losses came in games where the team allowed at least three goals which shows a glaring issue and not the one that gets complained about here most of the time.

Scoring two or more in 30 of 46 games ... three or more in 21 of 46 ... is meaningless when the team continually gives up too many goals. Once upon a time this was a team that could win 2-1 games ... now we need to score at least three for a reasonable hope to win. Maz has three starts with less than two goals allowed ... his one goal tonight and the two shutouts in November. 7 of his last 10 starts featured three or more goals allowed by Maz meaning our skaters need to net at least four to give the team a chance to win most nights.
We need to fix that issue too, but most people (myself included) see that as an issue that will resolve itself to at least some degree with the return of our world class goalie to replace our AHLers. Also, that issue is relatively new, while the goal scoring issue goes back just about forever. Also, we see young players in the pipeline who can help a lot defensively. Forwards...a few bright spots, but no cure-alls.

Yes, GA is an issue as well, but playing Maz/Hutton instead of Rinne will do that. Our scorers are healthy and we still can't produce, have never really been able to produce, and have nothing in the pipeline that leads us to believe we will be able to produce in the near future.

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01-11-2014, 11:01 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Top 6 Spaling View Post
We need to fix that issue too, but most people (myself included) see that as an issue that will resolve itself to at least some degree with the return of our world class goalie to replace our AHLers. Also, that issue is relatively new, while the goal scoring issue goes back just about forever. Also, we see young players in the pipeline who can help a lot defensively. Forwards...a few bright spots, but no cure-alls.

Yes, GA is an issue as well, but playing Maz/Hutton instead of Rinne will do that. Our scorers are healthy and we still can't produce, have never really been able to produce, and have nothing in the pipeline that leads us to believe we will be able to produce in the near future.
Except if Rinne returning doesn't fix it...oh, I don't even want to think about that.

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01-11-2014, 11:03 PM
  #105
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Just some photos...I'm leaving before the SO next time...then of course we'll somehow win...








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01-11-2014, 11:05 PM
  #106
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Seems like this team either scores and can't defend or can't score but defends.

Be nice if we could do both!

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01-11-2014, 11:08 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Top 6 Spaling View Post
We need to fix that issue too, but most people (myself included) see that as an issue that will resolve itself to at least some degree with the return of our world class goalie to replace our AHLers. Also, that issue is relatively new, while the goal scoring issue goes back just about forever. Also, we see young players in the pipeline who can help a lot defensively. Forwards...a few bright spots, but no cure-alls.

Yes, GA is an issue as well, but playing Maz/Hutton instead of Rinne will do that. Our scorers are healthy and we still can't produce, have never really been able to produce, and have nothing in the pipeline that leads us to believe we will be able to produce in the near future.
The goals allowed at ES is not new. Even in Rinne's Vezina finalist season this was the only the 13th ranked team in 5on5 goals allowed. It got worse last season and that trend continues downward this season.

We "never" score is the type hyperbole that makes me laugh. Two years ago this was the #8 scoring team in the league with the top PP%. This year the team that "never" scores somehow has the #8 PP% in the league.

That shows one of the problems ... our so-called scorers can get the puck in the net with the man advantage but disappear at ES. Our top three ES goal scorers are Fisher, Smith (expected), then Gaustad (huh?) followed by Nystrom (again, huh?), Spaling, Bourque, Stalberg, Wilson, Cullen, and Hornqvist all tied at five. Weber is great with the man advantage with seven PP goals ... at ES he has three compared to Karlsson's eight, Hedman's seven, or the rest of the 25 defenders with more ES goals.

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01-11-2014, 11:12 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by hockey diva View Post
Seems like this team either scores and can't defend or can't score but defends.

Be nice if we could do both!
Two goals allowed is our tipping point. Yes, we lost tonight with one allowed in regulation but that is the exception to the rule. 15-3-3 when holding the opposition to two or fewer goals, including tonight. Only 4 wins when allowing three or more.

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01-11-2014, 11:12 PM
  #109
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So, how does that get fixed?

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01-11-2014, 11:19 PM
  #110
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Yet we've never developed a great top 6 player. You'd think in 15 years we could develop one great top 6 talent. We haven't. Being good on the PP is great but when you score is more important than how many you score. Overtime is the time the PP needs to put one in the net, plain and simple. Looking at stats alone without looking at the effect it has on the game is pointless.

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01-11-2014, 11:21 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
The goals allowed at ES is not new. Even in Rinne's Vezina finalist season this was the only the 13th ranked team in 5on5 goals allowed. It got worse last season and that trend continues downward this season.

We "never" score is the type hyperbole that makes me laugh. Two years ago this was the #8 scoring team in the league with the top PP%. This year the team that "never" scores somehow has the #8 PP% in the league.

That shows one of the problems ... our so-called scorers can get the puck in the net with the man advantage but disappear at ES. Our top three ES goal scorers are Fisher, Smith (expected), then Gaustad (huh?) followed by Nystrom (again, huh?), Spaling, Bourque, Stalberg, Wilson, Cullen, and Hornqvist all tied at five. Weber is great with the man advantage with seven PP goals ... at ES he has three compared to Karlsson's eight, Hedman's seven, or the rest of the 25 defenders with more ES goals.
I should have clarified a bit. We have never been good at 5 on 5 offense. When we were #8 in the league (a roster much more loaded than our current one), we were, as you say, #1 on the PP. Which is why we were #8 offensively.

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01-11-2014, 11:26 PM
  #112
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For a change, I decided to put up the GDT for tomorrow. If it looks familiar, it's because it's essentially what we were doing on the official boards.

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01-11-2014, 11:39 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Top 6 Spaling View Post
I should have clarified a bit. We have never been good at 5 on 5 offense. When we were #8 in the league (a roster much more loaded than our current one), we were, as you say, #1 on the PP. Which is why we were #8 offensively.
That team was 10th in 5on5 goals scored. Again, the "never" hyperbole makes me laugh.

Glenn,
Hornqvist is a guy who scored over 20 goals per season for three consecutive seasons before last season and averaged above 20. Developing a top 6, a top 180 forward in the league, somehow doesn't include a guy in the top 120 in scoring for a stretch like that. We didn't develop Hartnell. Again, the word "never" fails to hold up.

Diva,
Fixing it requires going back to basics and playing what used to be Predators hockey. We need solid team defense for all 60 minutes. We need an aggressive forecheck that forces the other team to make mistakes. We need smart passes in our defensive zone and to stop the blind sweeps and reverses to nobody (Ekholm's blind reversal tonight leading to a goal ... Weber's blind sweep in neutral ice leading to a goal by the Ducks for recent examples). We need net presence in the offensive zone and a willingness to get dirty goals. This team routinely shows it can play against anyone ... beating the Wings and Kings ... followed by a series of brain farts where it gives games to the opposition (Hutton's soft goals, Ekholm's turnover tonight, Maz and Hutton both sucking for a week seeing who could get pulled more often in December, etc). When our leaders step up and the team keeps its collective head in the game for all 60 minutes, they play good hockey. When we experience the mental lapses, we get hammered for them.

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01-11-2014, 11:43 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
That team was 10th in 5on5 goals scored. Again, the "never" hyperbole makes me laugh.
So, at our absolute best, when we had the top guns in the history of our franchise, we were still behind 1/3 of the teams in the league? That's not good. Of course, there's more than just 5v5 goals for to decide a cup, but do you not see an issue.

Let me ask you this, on a basic level: Do you think our 5v5 offensive game is an issue that needs to be addressed in a meaningful way, be it coaching change or trade?

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01-12-2014, 12:00 AM
  #115
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Our goalies with those with more than 15 starts:

GAA: 35 and 36th out of 46 qualifying (Maz then Hutton)
Save%: 29 (Maz) and 36 (Hutton)

Our skaters:
Top goal scorer: Tied for 62nd with 15 other skaters - Craig Smith with 13 goals; Mike Fisher with 12 goals tied for 77th with 16 other skaters.
Top points: Tied for 84th with 6 other players - Shea Weber with 29 points, then Legwand at 90/tied with 14 players.
Top assists: Tied at 52nd overall with 8 other players, Legwand with 21 assists; then weber at 79 with 13 other players (19 assists).

Our forward with most TOI this season: Fisher at 19 then Legwand with 16:44

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01-12-2014, 12:02 AM
  #116
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1-18 in shootout attempts this year.

1 lucky goal and several hit the posts.

Someone teach Stalberg how to finish and he will easily lead the team in points.

Confused on how Spezza was the 2nd star of the game with 0 points and 1 shot???

Thank you Legwand for wearing your ski mask again tonight and stealing your gamecheck. You and Trotz are a really good Bonnie and Clide.


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01-12-2014, 12:03 AM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch View Post
Our goalies with those with more than 15 starts:

GAA: 35 and 36th out of 46 qualifying (Maz then Hutton)
Save%: 29 (Maz) and 36 (Hutton)

Our skaters:
Top goal scorer: Tied for 62nd with 15 other skaters - Craig Smith with 13 goals; Mike Fisher with 12 goals tied for 77th with 16 other skaters.
Top points: Tied for 84th with 6 other players - Shea Weber with 29 points, then Legwand at 90/tied with 14 players.
Top assists: Tied at 52nd overall with 8 other players, Legwand with 21 assists; then weber at 79 with 13 other players (19 assists).

Our forward with most TOI this season: Fisher at 19 then Legwand with 16:44
So basically, the "average" NHL team has at least one goalie better than both of ours, at least two people with more goals, almost 3 people with more points, and almost two people with more assists.


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01-12-2014, 12:07 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
For all of the complaints that the team doesn't score enough ... where are the complaints about allowing four or more goals 17 times so far this season ... winning only two of them? Another 8 games allowing three goals ... another two wins. That is 25 of 46 games allowing at least three goals (more than half for the math challenged) ... losing 21 of them. 21 of 27 losses came in games where the team allowed at least three goals which shows a glaring issue and not the one that gets complained about here most of the time.

Scoring two or more in 30 of 46 games ... three or more in 21 of 46 ... is meaningless when the team continually gives up too many goals. Once upon a time this was a team that could win 2-1 games ... now we need to score at least three for a reasonable hope to win. Maz has three starts with less than two goals allowed ... his one goal tonight and the two shutouts in November. 7 of his last 10 starts featured three or more goals allowed by Maz meaning our skaters need to net at least four to give the team a chance to win most nights.
That is the point 101: 25 games where we have only scored 2 goals or less; 15 with 1 goal or less. That is HORRIFIC.

And while I hear you that the goals against are a problem, I point to our goalies, the terrible tandem of Hutton and Mazenac. There is not a worse pair in the entire league. Heck, neither of them would start for another team, and Hutton would not back up any team in the league.

You cannot win 2-1 games when your goalie is prone to giving up soft goals or back-breaking momentum changing goals against. Maz and Hutton have too many weak points (Hutton especially).

The one thing you hoped for with all of these signings this off-season was players being slotted into the appropriate role. This hasn't happened this year. Trotz has went back to his same antics of putting grinders on scoring lines and scorers on grinding lines in order to "balance" the scoring. Unfortunately, we do not have the even strength scorers that we had in years past. There isn't that true offensive talent that can carry a line anywhere in this offense.

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01-12-2014, 12:08 AM
  #119
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Hahahahahaha. Just noticed your avatar, Top 6 Spaling. Friggin brilliant!

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01-12-2014, 12:13 AM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Top 6 Spaling View Post
So, at our absolute best, when we had the top guns in the history of our franchise, we were still behind 1/3 of the teams in the league? That's not good. Of course, there's more than just 5v5 goals for to decide a cup, but do you not see an issue.

Let me ask you this, on a basic level: Do you think our 5v5 offensive game is an issue that needs to be addressed in a meaningful way, be it coaching change or trade?
I've pointed out that our 5on5 play, both offensive and defensive, needs addressing for a while. Our 5on5 defense has been a bigger issue for a longer time than the 5on5 offense. We've depended on special teams for years but don't get anywhere near the PP opportunities for that area of the game to carry this team and this season's PK is much more hit or miss than in years past.

Our defensive top four is still in flux. It's Weber/Josi ... Klein/Ellis this week, formerly Ekholm, Bartley, Jones ... then the remaining active duo forms the third line. Weber was on the ice for more ES goals allowed than any Predator besides Maz ... including Hutton ... but we count on him and Josi to be our dominant pairing. Somehow Gaustad is our #3 goal scorer at ES. How the hell is Goose in our top three scorers at ES given his limited ice time compared to players who are allegedly our better scorers? That is an indictment of our alleged top six and should be enough to light a fire under guys like Wilson, Stalberg, Hornqvist who we need to step up 5on5. Unfortunately it hasn't. Clune with two goals in about 185 ES minutes this season heading into tonight and Forsberg with over 180 ES minutes in his 17 career NHL games with zero goals is aggravating.


Based on the feedback I received from the front office after questioning the on and off ice leadership of the team, I expect minimal changes at most before the season. We might see a trade or two but I expect Trotz to remain until the end of the season unless something goes dramatically wrong in the near future. By dramatically I mean a huge losing streak where the team isn't even competitive in any of the games or Trotz obviously loses the dressing room. If the team keeps playing competitive hockey, Trotz stays ... pretty simple.

Our goals allowed ticking upward is understandable with inexperienced backups forced into starting roles. The repeated defensive gaffes are inexcusable. Only one player with double digit ES goals through 46 games is neither understandable nor is it excusable.

The problem is we have contracts that make our wagon line hard to trade. We have too many NTCs and even if we get those players to waive the clause, we're not getting a huge return for them. Goaltending, as it was this summer, remains a bare marketplace (Hiller maybe .. but doubtful). It's easy to rant for trades, but they take two willing parties and getting what we'd like to see added to the roster probably isn't coming from what we have to offer.

Fandom is more heartbreak and frustration than happiness. We're about to find out how well our fanbase deals with real struggle and not one or two and done playoff series.

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01-12-2014, 12:16 AM
  #121
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Hahahahahaha. Just noticed your avatar, Top 6 Spaling. Friggin brilliant!
Thanks man! I wanted to replace the crown with a Preds logo but couldn't get it to work. Oh well, still happy with it.

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The one thing you hoped for with all of these signings this off-season was players being slotted into the appropriate role. This hasn't happened this year. Trotz has went back to his same antics of putting grinders on scoring lines and scorers on grinding lines in order to "balance" the scoring. Unfortunately, we do not have the even strength scorers that we had in years past. There isn't that true offensive talent that can carry a line anywhere in this offense.
100% agreed. Field a roster of:

Wilson-Fisher-Hornqvist
Smith-Cullen-Stalberg (or Forsberg but I digress)
Spaling-Legwand-Bourque
Hendricks-Gaustad-Nystrom

and I think you see much better results. Lines 1-2 score goals, line 3 can play in all three zones, and line 4 shuts down their top line. Easy. I don't understand Trotz's choices to mix types of players on lines when the vast majority of teams seem to play with truly offensive lines.


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01-12-2014, 12:21 AM
  #122
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I've pointed out that our 5on5 play, both offensive and defensive, needs addressing for a while. Our 5on5 defense has been a bigger issue for a longer time than the 5on5 offense. We've depended on special teams for years but don't get anywhere near the PP opportunities for that area of the game to carry this team and this season's PK is much more hit or miss than in years past.

Our defensive top four is still in flux. It's Weber/Josi ... Klein/Ellis this week, formerly Ekholm, Bartley, Jones ... then the remaining active duo forms the third line. Weber was on the ice for more ES goals allowed than any Predator besides Maz ... including Hutton ... but we count on him and Josi to be our dominant pairing. Somehow Gaustad is our #3 goal scorer at ES. How the hell is Goose in our top three scorers at ES given his limited ice time compared to players who are allegedly our better scorers? That is an indictment of our alleged top six and should be enough to light a fire under guys like Wilson, Stalberg, Hornqvist who we need to step up 5on5. Unfortunately it hasn't. Clune with two goals in about 185 ES minutes this season heading into tonight and Forsberg with over 180 ES minutes in his 17 career NHL games with zero goals is aggravating.


Based on the feedback I received from the front office after questioning the on and off ice leadership of the team, I expect minimal changes at most before the season. We might see a trade or two but I expect Trotz to remain until the end of the season unless something goes dramatically wrong in the near future. By dramatically I mean a huge losing streak where the team isn't even competitive in any of the games or Trotz obviously loses the dressing room. If the team keeps playing competitive hockey, Trotz stays ... pretty simple.

Our goals allowed ticking upward is understandable with inexperienced backups forced into starting roles. The repeated defensive gaffes are inexcusable. Only one player with double digit ES goals through 46 games is neither understandable nor is it excusable.

The problem is we have contracts that make our wagon line hard to trade. We have too many NTCs and even if we get those players to waive the clause, we're not getting a huge return for them. Goaltending, as it was this summer, remains a bare marketplace (Hiller maybe .. but doubtful). It's easy to rant for trades, but they take two willing parties and getting what we'd like to see added to the roster probably isn't coming from what we have to offer.

Fandom is more heartbreak and frustration than happiness. We're about to find out how well our fanbase deals with real struggle and not one or two and done playoff series.
I can't disagree with most of this. I still fully believe our 5v5 scoring is a bigger issue than our 5v5 defense, but I can live with that disagreement. I 100% agree that Trotz stays at least until May. Management will give our coach/GM time to finish the year out, if nothing else.

The other big reason I'm calling out our offense more than our D is that I am looking three years into the future here, and I see a unit of Rinne/Weber/Jones/Josi/Klein/Ekholm/whoever being just fine at keeping pucks out of our net, coupled with the strong two way play we will no doubt get from our forwards. When I look three years into the future at our offense, I do not see a problem that will work itself out with our current grouping. At all.

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01-12-2014, 12:23 AM
  #123
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Fair post 101.

The reason Gaustad and Nystrom are leading in points is because they scorer dirty goals. It isn't skill or goal-scoring ability. It is playing hard, in your face hockey.

Stalberg can't shoot.
Wilson is a playmaker.
Borque is more of a Nystrom type scorer than Hornqvist.
Hornqvist is a guy that does his work as a Holmstrom type; his shot velocity is too weak anywhere than up close.
Weber's shot has the most power but is inaccurate.
Smith is probably the only true offensive player that has the instincts/drive to score goals.
Legwand is a playmaker.
Fisher is a 2nd/3rd line tweener, not a goal scorer.
Ellis isn't trusted in scorer's role, and 2nd PP unit underutilizes his transition game (but Weber/Josi/Jones....what are you going to do).
Forsberg is in Milwuakee and will not play a meaningful role until he picks up the assignments in a dump/chase offense.
Legwand is a sneaky scorer but he has always been a complimentary player. Not a primary scorer.
Cullen is a PP guy, not an even strength scorer. He always has been.
Spaling is a third line grinder, despite the minutes he gets.
Clune - agitator.
Hendricks - PKer/minute eater.

What can you say .... We suck at ES goal scoring because we have 0 goal scorers and few players that are anything better than complimentary scorers (if that). We have competent hockey players and tweeners, but no elite offensive talent.

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01-12-2014, 12:27 AM
  #124
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I hope we fire Trotz during or after this season. Team needs a new direction. Don't know who was instrumental in the decision making of signing Hutton ( instead of an experienced goalie) but those responsible should go too. Same goes for pretty much the rest of the summer's acquisitions. We could have gotten Grabovski to give us some offensive power but got other teams junk. If Poile was the one making all these decisions I say cut him loose too.
I remain doubtful that any of these firings are going to take place because either the team ownership doesn't know or care enough about hockey or they are just too nice of an organization. Even the Titans cut their coach twice already.

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01-12-2014, 12:35 AM
  #125
Iron Duke
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Location: San Dimas, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch View Post
Fair post 101.

The reason Gaustad and Nystrom are leading in points is because they scorer dirty goals. It isn't skill or goal-scoring ability. It is playing hard, in your face hockey.

Stalberg can't shoot.
Wilson is a playmaker.
Borque is more of a Nystrom type scorer than Hornqvist.
Hornqvist is a guy that does his work as a Holmstrom type; his shot velocity is too weak anywhere than up close.
Weber's shot has the most power but is inaccurate.
Smith is probably the only true offensive player that has the instincts/drive to score goals.
Legwand is a playmaker.
Fisher is a 2nd/3rd line tweener, not a goal scorer.
Ellis isn't trusted in scorer's role, and 2nd PP unit underutilizes his transition game (but Weber/Josi/Jones....what are you going to do).
Forsberg is in Milwuakee and will not play a meaningful role until he picks up the assignments in a dump/chase offense.
Legwand is a sneaky scorer but he has always been a complimentary player. Not a primary scorer.
Cullen is a PP guy, not an even strength scorer. He always has been.
Spaling is a third line grinder, despite the minutes he gets.
Clune - agitator.
Hendricks - PKer/minute eater.

What can you say .... We suck at ES goal scoring because we have 0 goal scorers and few players that are anything better than complimentary scorers (if that). We have competent hockey players and tweeners, but no elite offensive talent.
To this point, Enoch, do we have better luck scoring if more of our "skill guys" get into the greasy spots and work for the garbage goals like Nystrom and Goose? I guess..."Preds hockey?"

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