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The Habs Cup Contention Window Can Begin This Year

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Old
01-13-2014, 05:10 AM
  #76
The Russian General
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Would love to see the Habs add some one like Mark Giodarno. He'd be a perfect #3, or even #2.
Agreed. At least, he can control the puck at the point and hit the net. We don't have many dman who are able to do that.

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Old
01-13-2014, 06:59 AM
  #77
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Agreed. At least, Giordano can control the puck at the point and hit the net. We don't have many dman who are able to do that.
Giordano's value right now is way too high (he's good but maybe he's getting overrated? not sure...might be way too expensive, AND...he doesn't have that much playoff experience...not sure if he disappears when it really counts).

Is Wideman (right handed Flames' Dman) a cheaper option?
We need a top 4 right-handed dman, imo.

Wideman has delivered in playoffs, no?
(we cannot add playoff passengers...need to make sure we're adding a dman who can deliver in playoffs).

And, some already know that I'm a huge fan of acquiring Big Buff Byfuglien as a HUGE BEAST of a forward or dman replacement in case of an injury to any of our top 4 dmen. But, I'd play him with Gorges to see what kind of chemistry they'd have...maybe lots of it.

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01-13-2014, 07:01 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Mr. Hab View Post
Giordano's value right now is way too high (he's good but maybe he's getting overrated? not sure...might be way too expensive, AND...he doesn't have that much playoff experience...not sure if he disappears when it really counts).

Is Wideman (right handed Flames' Dman) a cheaper option?
We need a top 4 right-handed dman, imo.

Wideman has delivered in playoffs, no?
(we cannot add playoff passengers...need to make sure we're adding a dman who can deliver in playoffs).

And, some already know that I'm a huge fan of acquiring Big Buff Byfuglien as a HUGE BEAST of a forward or dman replacement in case of an injury to any of our top 4 dmen. But, I'd play him with Gorges to see what kind of chemistry they'd have...maybe lots of it.
I will be 100% honest.......I would rather overpay for Giordano than take in Wideman. I am sorry, but Wideman is a mistake waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned.

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:20 AM
  #79
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I mostly agree with the OP here. Nice read by the way.
  • The salary cap is going up;
  • The East is weaker than ever;
  • Most of the core is locked up (Subban's extension should come soon);
  • The prospect pool is deep.

Bergevin has most of the pieces of the puzzle in order to build a winning franchise on the short term. The pieces being Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Gallagher, Plekanec, Galchenyuk and Eller.

This is the best group of centers I've seen on the team, ever. It has a great mix of talent, experience and size. Starting from there, Bergevin needs to acquire experience and size on the wings - this is going to be the hardest task. Not many high-scoring wingers with size available on the market.

There's a clear lack of size on defense. Hopefully, Diaz and Bouillon days are over after the season. I hope Bergevin's plan is to resign Markov (he's probably looking to finish is career over here anyway), or he'd have to look for an other puck mover. The great thing here is that Bergevin can look in Hamilton to fill this need. Otherwise, there are a lot of interesting free agents.

All in all, Bergevin needs to make some moves soon (read: now or during the summer).

Some interesting free agents for Bergevin and the team needs (given that they're not signed) :

Vanek, Thomas
Marleau, Patrick
Iginla, Jarome
Timonen, Kimmo
Pitkanen, Joni
Jagr, Jaromir
Orpik, Brooks
Mitchell, Willie
Girardi, Dan
Phillips, Chris
Greene, Matt
Ott, Steve
Kulemin, Nikolai
Penner, Dustin
Jones, Ryan

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Old
01-13-2014, 10:38 AM
  #80
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Signing and upgrade instead of Gionta would be great, but I'm not sure it will be possible, unfortunately.

Now, the question is: would you be OK with signing Gionta if he wasn't already with the Habs?

The answer is simply no. He's an OK player, but not what we need. He seems to have some value to our eyes, but it's only because he's already with the team and is our captain.

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01-13-2014, 11:02 AM
  #81
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We are not close. We need another top-3 defensman. Mcdonough would look great on the second paring, btw. The team also needs a gambreaker in the top-6 and another skilled forward in the top-6.

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Old
01-13-2014, 11:10 AM
  #82
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I'd rather we take a step back, trade away a few vets and wait till we're strong enough to be a force for years to come. Instead of a short push a la Gainey tried to do by trading for Hossa back in the day.

It's not about tanking but retooling with youth over time.

The main thing is, I don't trust the core, don't care if they're mature or not.

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01-13-2014, 11:21 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by bipolarhabfan View Post
We are not close. We need another top-3 defensman. Mcdonough would look great on the second paring, btw. The team also needs a gambreaker in the top-6 and another skilled forward in the top-6.
I agree Habs are not close to win the cup, but when a team already has a Vezina-caliber Goalie, a Norris-caliber d-man, a good scoring-winger with speed and size -- all still young and entering their prime -- to which you add a young budding star, a nice two-way big center (Eller), an arguably Selke-caliber player (Plek) and a good'ol general d-man (Markov), a gm has no choice but to start thinking about the said "cup-window".

It is impossible that the team's prospect pool alone will patch all the holes before all the previously named players start fading away, imo. So MB has no choice but to make some moves rather soon.

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Old
01-13-2014, 11:28 AM
  #84
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I don't know about this year (I agree with DAChampion's points, and I think there was a possibility, but it was squandered by bad signings), but the Habs can't wait forever. I'm a bit worried by Bergevin's conservatism because Pacioretty and Subban won't last forever. They are elite players now, but if the Habs wait five years, there's every chance those two will have lost a step, and finding a player as impactful as PK Subban is extremely hard, especially if said PK Subban prevents you from being bad enough to get first-overall picks.

Building through the draft is all well and good, but you can't build a winning team with just that.

Bergevin needs to start thinking about "next year". He doesn't sound like he quite understands what he has right now.

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01-13-2014, 11:31 AM
  #85
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While I agree that our window as a contender is opening, I'm still not comfortable with throwing away futures for immediate help just yet. This contention window will be opened for a while and the prospect pool is still not quite solid enough that we can rush things and give up low draft picks and/or prospects for UFA-to-be players.

Management does have to plan on getting the pieces in place to make a push in next 2 years however.

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01-13-2014, 11:38 AM
  #86
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While I agree that our window as a contender is opening, I'm still not comfortable with throwing away futures for immediate help just yet. This contention window will be opened for a while and the prospect pool is still not quite solid enough that we can rush things and give up low draft picks and/or prospects for UFA-to-be players.
But it won't get better because the team is above average now. They didn't draft high last season and they won't this season. Waiting for prospects to develop - something we've been doing for years - without being sure they'll be NHLers can't be Bergevin's plan.

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Old
01-13-2014, 11:40 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I don't know about this year (I agree with DAChampion's points, and I think there was a possibility, but it was squandered by bad signings), but the Habs can't wait forever. I'm a bit worried by Bergevin's conservatism because Pacioretty and Subban won't last forever. They are elite players now, but if the Habs wait five years, there's every chance those two will have lost a step, and finding a player as impactful as PK Subban is extremely hard, especially if said PK Subban prevents you from being bad enough to get first-overall picks.

Building through the draft is all well and good, but you can't build a winning team with just that.

Bergevin needs to start thinking about "next year". He doesn't sound like he quite understands what he has right now.
I don't think you should say "let's go for it" just cause you have one great player just cause you're afraid he won't be as good later on.

It just has to be an accelerate rebuild to make sure we have the right pieces two years from now. Cause other than Price and PK, I don't see it right now.

But you're right in saying that MB doesn't seem to understand what he has.

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01-13-2014, 11:43 AM
  #88
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I really don't think our window is open for the cup yet.
I think we're 2 years away.

In 2 years, Price will still be in his prime, so will Subban, Pacioretty and Eller.
Galchenyuk - Gallagher will probably be mature enough for a good run.
Probably 2 out of Pateryn, Beaulieu and Tinordi will make the team by then.

Bouillon, Gionta, Briere, Diaz, and hopefully, DD and Bourque, will probably be out the way in the next 2 years.
Then it will be time to start trading 1st pick for rentals, or hoping for a splash on the UFA market.

Until then, i think the Habs COULD become a 2nd-3rd round team if MT/MB start to use his players the right way....which it's not the case right now but that can change comes playoff times.

We.re a good season team and mostly because we're fast and small which help us getting tons of PP opportunities and we got a good PP squad and top goalie.

But comes playoff time, we all know teams will be very discipline and the referees won't make half the calls they do right now.....and at 5 on 5 we suck.

Playoff is a 5-on-5 game.

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Old
01-13-2014, 11:46 AM
  #89
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I think we are 1-2 years away. Tinordi will have to be in our top 6 and a couple of forwards will have to make the big team (DLR, Andrighetto, Reway, Collberg, or even McCarron in a third line grinding role). At that point we'll be in a position to get the last minute help for the playoff.

Right now it would be useless to trade assets for late season help because we are more than 1 piece away from being real contenders and we would just waste assets, and that would set us back.

But we certainly are getting there. This is the best core we've had in decades.

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01-13-2014, 11:50 AM
  #90
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I remember some Cinderella teams getting to the finals, and I guess in the East this year it's about as ripe as ever for a Cinderella team to get there, all it takes is a couple upsets to Boston and Pittsburgh along the way. Not necessarily by the same team either.

But did one of those Cinderellas actually beat a powerhouse in the finals? There are just so many beastly teams in the West right now... unless they somehow manage to kill eachother getting to the finals...

Anyway, it's not really contention to say that maybe by "some string of miracles" our team might get a Cup shot. Any team can say that once they make the playoffs. That's not real contention. But being a team that is at least reasonably confident of making the playoffs at all is a first step, and maybe that constitutes opening the window, at least? A tiny crack?

I want to see real improvements to the roster next season, though, not the kind of flailing that last summer produced, before I really feel like the team has taken a step.

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01-13-2014, 11:52 AM
  #91
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I remember some Cinderella teams getting to the finals, and I guess in the East this year it's about as ripe as ever for a Cinderella team to get there, all it takes is a couple upsets to Boston and Pittsburgh along the way. Not necessarily by the same team either.

But did one of those Cinderellas actually beat a powerhouse in the finals? There are just so many beastly teams in the West right now... unless they somehow manage to kill eachother getting to the finals...

Anyway, it's not really contention to say that maybe by "some string of miracles" our team might get a Cup shot. Any team can say that once they make the playoffs. That's not real contention. But being a team that is at least reasonably confident of making the playoffs at all is a first step, and maybe that constitutes opening the window, at least? A tiny crack?

I want to see real improvements to the roster next season, though, not the kind of flailing that last summer produced, before I really feel like the team has taken a step.
As long as we don't face one of SJ, STL or LA in the finals we should be good

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Old
01-13-2014, 12:09 PM
  #92
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I agree in theory with DAChampion's opening post, but the problem is that the players we need to put us over the top are the hardest to acquire...

1) A 30-goal sniping winger.

2) A big, tough, Top 4 defensive D.

We don't necessarily need both, but we need at least one of the two to have a real shot of winning a weak East and "getting lucky" in the finals. Of the two, that 30-goal sniping winger is the bigger need (since Emelin and Gorges on their good days fill out a good Top 4 along with Subban and Markov).

If a 30-goal sniping winger comes on the market, and we can acquire him without depleting our core, then by all means, go for it. But those guys aren't always on the market, and so MB might not have the chance to go for it.

It's a shame that our main needs aren't, say, a 3rd line center and more depth on D. Then I'd 100% say "go for it", and make those trades happen. But no, we really need a sniper to put us over the top, and that's a hard piece to acquire.


In any event, we're definitely too good to tank. Anybody hoping for a Markov sell trade really needs to drop that total fantasy at this point. Nobody that's Top 3 in their division is going to trade a Markov in a sell trade. It just does not happen in the NHL.

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Old
01-13-2014, 12:13 PM
  #93
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Bergevin will have to realize that his team will not get better if he only build with the draft. The only players that the team could use an upgrade are: Bourque, Brière, Desharnais, Bouillon and Murray. No prospect seems ready to replace them and be an effective player for the Habs in the next 3 years.

Markov won't be this good for ever. When Markov will leave this team, the Habs will drop in the standing like the Sens did without Alfredsson. Subban will have a 5 millions increase in salary, Eller and Emelin a 2 millions increase in salary each, Markov will cost at least 5.5 millions. This team will soon have less depth because of those salary increases.

Unless that Galchenyuk became a 65 + point Producer in the next 2 years, there is a good chance that this year is the best Habs team that the Habs will have in the next 3 to 5 years.

Bergevin says that he want to build the team with the draft and that he won't trade picks and prospect to make a playoff push but at the same time he lost Ryder for nothing while he could have trade him for a 1st round pick, he re-sign Bouillon and sign Murray instead of giving ice time to Tinordi or Pateryn and the Habs will probably lose Gionta, Diaz and maybe Markov for nothing this year.

If Bergevin doesn't want to go for it this year, he should take a step back and trade the players he doesn't want to re-sign. No middle ground here. You either go for it or you trade the players you doesn't want on your team or that you have not enough money to re-sign them like: Brière, Bourque, Bouillion, Murray, Desharnais, Diaz, Gionta and maybe Markov.

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01-13-2014, 12:42 PM
  #94
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It's crazy how a win against a top team can do. It takes one of the best if not the best game from Habs to beat Chicago 2-1 in OT. We certainly looked good but it's the story of Habs of the last decade (as long as I could remember). The same team that struggled badly and inconsistent period to period prior to this game.

Habs are as much contender as Toronto, Tampa, Ottawa, Washington and you can name about any middle pack team who will make the playoff this year. We have a chance to be a dark horse as much as any team which gets hot in April. Carey Price could finally be playoff monster, attack will score more than 2 goals a game and our smaller players somehow get through the physical grind without damage...

That's a lot of conditions which could happen once in a very long while but you never bet money on it. If anything, last year should teach us a lesson to better prepare for this year playoff.

I remember the thread from last year demanding MB to make trade at the dead line because lot of fans thought it was the time. We were having a pretty record. We beat some top teams too...

We are far from top teams in this league. We will beat them time to time but likely not in a 4 of 7. Games against SJ, LA, St Louis this year are clear indication. We match up better with Pitts, Chicago maybe but still heavy underdog in playoff format. We do play well against Boston but again, as underdog.

If today, we starts a 4 of 7 against Toronto, Ottawa or even Carolina, we will be favorite but not that much, this is where we stand as a team.

This is not a knock on Habs. Considering the roaster, they do pretty well. I agree that we can't tank so adding pieces is the tough part now. I don't believe in deadline players. This is where a GM shines. Find a way to add the right pieces without removing the core one. Sometimes, the opportunities are just not there so simply wait is better option.

For this year playoff, the goal should be getting to the second round. Reach the conference final should be considered a success. Clear improvement from last year.

This is what I hope.

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01-13-2014, 12:45 PM
  #95
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IMO; we are a "chance cup" team. In other words, a low rated contender. I know people will scoff at this but look no further than the 2006 champs who arguably had no business winning it all. That team had 4 rounds of luck on their side. In series 1, the Habs had Carolina by the throat until Williams stick got Koivu in the eye & the whole series changed. Momentum went to the Canes. In the 2nd series the Devil's had a 1-0 series lead & as time was dying down in game 2 with a 1-0 Devil's lead, Staal fired the puck below the goal line & beat Brodeur, a puck that Brodeur would have stopped 1,000 other times. In the 3rd series, the Sabres injury woes were so bad they had an AHL level defense. And finally in the 3rd period of game 1 versus the Oilers, Roloson got an MCL courtesy of a collision with Ladd. Carolina won that cup on more than luck alone but these events didn't hurt them either. Who's to say that the stars can't align for us?


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01-13-2014, 12:47 PM
  #96
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Would love to see the Habs add some one like Mark Giodarno. He'd be a perfect #3, or even #2.
Me too but he seems like the heart of the Flames, dont think they will trade him

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01-13-2014, 12:53 PM
  #97
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You never know. Maybe Rene Bourque grows 2 inches & puts on a 2002 Zednik versus Boston scoring at will performance. This is the type of condition that may put us over the top. It's a lot to ask for but not impossible

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01-13-2014, 12:55 PM
  #98
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IMO; we are a "chance cup" team. In other words, a low rated contender. I know people will scoff at this but look no further than the 2006 champs...
It's 8 years ago even thought my head is stuck somewhere in 2010 too..it's always a couple of years ago when started with a 2 in front for me.

When will the next Carolina shows up ? We don't know, could be another 8 years.

So yes, I agree, we have as much chance as another maybe 8-10 teams come playoff time. There'll maybe 4-5 great contenders and another 1-2 without much a chance. The problem is the 4-5 contenders will probably take 75% (just a random number for illustration) of the cup winning chance and the rest is divided between the rest.

There's one thing that really lower Habs playoff chance is the physical aspect. However we want to portrait it, we need to get bigger to raise that % of winning, even as a bubbled team.

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01-13-2014, 01:26 PM
  #99
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I don't know about this year (I agree with DAChampion's points, and I think there was a possibility, but it was squandered by bad signings), but the Habs can't wait forever. I'm a bit worried by Bergevin's conservatism because Pacioretty and Subban won't last forever. They are elite players now, but if the Habs wait five years, there's every chance those two will have lost a step, and finding a player as impactful as PK Subban is extremely hard, especially if said PK Subban prevents you from being bad enough to get first-overall picks.

Building through the draft is all well and good, but you can't build a winning team with just that.

Bergevin needs to start thinking about "next year". He doesn't sound like he quite understands what he has right now.
I just posted something very similar in another thread. Bergevin can't passively wait for drafts and prospects to rescue him. With a strong core in place and in its prime, he has to suck it up and make the Big Trade or sign the Big UFA -- whatever it takes to address the weaknesses. The Cup window will not open by itself; it's up to Bergevin to pry it open by pursuing, and getting at any cost, the right missing player(s).

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01-13-2014, 02:49 PM
  #100
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Man according to some, our younger core is ALREADY in it's prime. SERIOUSLY!? Unless players are hitting their prime only a few years removed from their diapers in today's NEW NHL, this is far from the case. In two years, a few will be in their prime, a few will be entering their prime and a few will be well rounded but still just off from entering their prime.

IMO, the only real problem is Markov who will likely plateau or go downwards as time wears on. To more years of seasoning for the vast majority of the team won't hurt. Plekanec won't be too old, Gionta will be gone (but, so what?), Brière will be gone, Bourque will be gone… All of these, hopefully replaced by better players….

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