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MLB Discussion Thread Part III: Jeter announces retirement after 2014

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Old
01-22-2014, 03:41 PM
  #526
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I'm sensing that a lot of the griping is coming because a) a popular player left and b) people know nothing about Tanaka.

Cano is 31 and wanted a 10-year deal. Every similar deal stands as a cautionary tale against making similar moves. He will likely give them his best years in years 1 and 2 of the deal and will then begin a steady downswing, which will result in a .270, 10-15 HR, 75 RBI 2B making $30MM per year for like the last 3-5 years of his contract.

Ellsbury was expensive. But he was a 7-year deal. The three albatross years on the end is a HUGE difference. And speed outfielders age much more gracefully than power bats.

Every Japanese pitcher is a risk. But Tanaka is performing at this level and is 25. Do I think he's Darvish? No. Then again, Darvish is not just a legit ace, but arguably top 3 in the game. Tanaka could come in, significantly underperform Darvish and be a solid #2. And what if he is the real deal?

Again, I agree it's an expensive contract. And yes, he can opt out in 4 years. That's what it took to get him - and what it was going to take to get him given the new posting rules. If he lives up to it, they'll pay him. And I'll be happy with another 7-year deal then.

Just don't ever give out 10-year deals, and ESPECIALLY not to guys who are 30 or older.

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01-22-2014, 03:42 PM
  #527
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It's not the money though. This contract at most will bring Tanaka to 32 years old. Cano wanted a contract that would bring him to 41. Signing Cano to a deal like that would be like resigning Tanaka in 2021 to a 10 year deal.

As far as the infield goes we can deal Gardner for help there. We signed McCann and Cervelli, and now we're sitting on 3 young catchers in the minors doing nothing. There's a deal there too.
Yea, it's risky to sign Cano to a long term deal. Every signing comes with risk. For all we know Tanaka might be a below average pitcher starting next season. He's completely unproven at the MLB level. On the other hand Cano is just a notch below guys like Cabrera and Trout. A second baseman with his kind of power and defense is almost unheard of.

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01-22-2014, 03:44 PM
  #528
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Yeah it's the 10 year deals that really have to go. Look at A-Rod. We got what we wanted out of him in 2009, but for 4 years after that he was sitting around hitting .240 and causing drama.

Money is no object for the Yankees. Years are an object for anyone.

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01-22-2014, 03:46 PM
  #529
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Originally Posted by stan the caddy View Post
Yea, it's risky to sign Cano to a long term deal. Every signing comes with risk. For all we know Tanaka might be a below average pitcher starting next season. He's completely unproven at the MLB level. On the other hand Cano is just a notch below guys like Cabrera and Trout. A second baseman with his kind of power and defense is almost unheard of.
I wouldn't even call the deal Cano got a risk. Its pretty much a guaranteed albatross for the last 3 years.

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01-22-2014, 03:53 PM
  #530
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I wouldn't even call the deal Cano got a risk. Its pretty much a guaranteed albatross for the last 3 years.
That's how free agency always works. That's the price you pay to keep a borderline MVP around to make a run at a championship. The AROD deal was a guaranteed albatross but I don't think anyone had a problem during the WS run.

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01-22-2014, 03:55 PM
  #531
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And as far as being a quality bat in the lineup, guys like Ellsbury and McCann can't carry Cano's jock. They're not even in the same league.

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01-22-2014, 03:56 PM
  #532
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Forgive me if I'm going by guilty by association.. but I believe the Yankees saw another Arod fiasco coming with Cano which is why they would not go 10 years (nor should they have).

Lets examine. Cano will be the same age I believe that Arod was when he signed his record breaking contract after opting out.. Arod and Cano were really good friends.. I'm not trying to implicate anyone but would anyone really be shocked if Cano's name comes out in a few years?.. The Yankees after Arod were simply not giving Cano a 10 year deal.. It was nothing to do with the money, it was the 10 year committment.

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01-22-2014, 03:57 PM
  #533
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I wouldn't even call the deal Cano got a risk. Its pretty much a guaranteed albatross for the last 3 years.
If he performs as well as he has in the past, the last 3 years can be dealt with.

The question is when Cano starts declining. If he keeps up his average level of play, the contract isn't as much of an overpay as it was made out to be (sans the last couple of years, probably, but that's FA.)

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01-22-2014, 03:57 PM
  #534
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And as far as being a quality bat in the lineup, guys like Ellsbury and McCann can't carry Cano's jock. They're not even in the same league.
I'm not going to say that losing Cano is not a big loss, because it was, but the Yankees have done a hell of a job this off season replacing what they lost..

Also, Ellsbury nor Mccann are as good as Cano no, but together, they are better than Cano, and together they will cost the Yankees the same price total that Seattle paid for Cano.

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01-22-2014, 04:03 PM
  #535
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I'm not going to say that losing Cano is not a big loss, because it was, but the Yankees have done a hell of a job this off season replacing what they lost..

Also, Ellsbury nor Mccann are as good as Cano no, but together, they are better than Cano, and together they will cost the Yankees the same price total that Seattle paid for Cano.
Ellsbury is a speed guy. How well will he age? I thought the McCann deal was pretty reasonable but there is legit concern that he's already declining.

I just don't see how fans can poo on Cano getting a few extra years and then defend these moves that are incredibly risky. Tanaka and Ellsbury are really risky signings.

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01-22-2014, 04:09 PM
  #536
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Originally Posted by Lundsanity30 View Post
I'm not going to say that losing Cano is not a big loss, because it was, but the Yankees have done a hell of a job this off season replacing what they lost..

Also, Ellsbury nor Mccann are as good as Cano no, but together, they are better than Cano, and together they will cost the Yankees the same price total that Seattle paid for Cano.
The Yankees dont do a helluva job at anything anymore, besides throwing insane money at players.

This Tanaka deal is probably the most insane. Desperate is a good word for it.

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01-22-2014, 04:10 PM
  #537
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Originally Posted by stan the caddy View Post
Ellsbury is a speed guy. How well will he age? I thought the McCann deal was pretty reasonable but there is legit concern that he's already declining.

I just don't see how fans can poo on Cano getting a few extra years and then defend these moves that are incredibly risky. Tanaka and Ellsbury are really risky signings.
ask anyone here I loved Cano.. I am not pooing on him.. I''m pooing on the idea of giving a 31 year old a 10 year contract, especially after ARod.

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01-22-2014, 04:11 PM
  #538
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The Yankees dont do a helluva job at anything anymore, besides throwing insane money at players.

This Tanaka deal is probably the most insane. Desperate is a good word for it.
Cubs were willing to go 150M.. Dbacks 130M.. DODGERS 130M.. whats your point? its free agency.

Yankees have thrown around money this off season but they did it on a 25 year old with huge potential.. a 29 year old catcher who's deal ends at 34.. a 30 year old CF who's deal ends at 37 and a bunch of other 1 year committments. They passed on the 31 year old getting a 10 year deal.

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01-22-2014, 04:15 PM
  #539
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Cubs were willing to go 150M.. Dbacks 130M.. DODGERS 130M.. whats your point? its free agency.
For a guy that has never thrown an MLB pitch.

My point is the Yankees have morphed into probably the laziest franchise in professional sports, which is incredibly ironic considering the Core 4 that everyone reveres were ALL homegrown players.

Can't develop a farm system now? **** it, we'll just throw money at the problems.

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01-22-2014, 04:20 PM
  #540
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For a guy that has never thrown an MLB pitch.

My point is the Yankees have morphed into probably the laziest franchise in professional sports, which is incredibly ironic considering the Core 4 that everyone reveres were ALL homegrown players.

Can't develop a farm system now? **** it, we'll just throw money at the problems.
Yes I'm not denying that.. but they have the money.. and THIS off season they have actually made good off choices.. other than maybe this huge risk with Tanaka. but again, other teams were willing to go pretty damn high too.

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Old
01-22-2014, 04:21 PM
  #541
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Originally Posted by Lundsanity30 View Post
ask anyone here I loved Cano.. I am not pooing on him.. I''m pooing on the idea of giving a 31 year old a 10 year contract, especially after ARod.
Which is exactly what I said.

Quote:
I just don't see how fans can poo on Cano getting a few extra years and then defend these moves that are incredibly risky. Tanaka and Ellsbury are really risky signings.

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01-22-2014, 04:22 PM
  #542
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Which is exactly what I said.
well he's 31.. Ellsbury's deal ends at 37.. not 41.. Tanaka's ends at 29 most likely.. if not then 32.

also I think Jay z and Cano pissed the Yankees off with their ridiculous starting asking price.

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01-22-2014, 04:35 PM
  #543
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well he's 31.. Ellsbury's deal ends at 37.. not 41.. Tanaka's ends at 29 most likely.. if not then 32.

also I think Jay z and Cano pissed the Yankees off with their ridiculous starting asking price.
Yea, Ellsbury deal ends at 37 but he's also completely relies on his speed to justify his value which tends to go early. His bat isn't particularly impressive, he only had one year where he hit for power. His obp isn't good for a leadoff guy.

The Yankees only had to pay Cano a few more million per + the extra years but given Cano's skillset vs. Ellsbury's, the extra years might be a wash considering Ellsbury's decline could very well happen sooner.

Furthermore, the Yankees just broke the bank on a guy that's never pitched in the MLB.

Not bringing Cano back makes no sense unless they have knowledge of sterioid use or something.

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01-22-2014, 04:54 PM
  #544
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Funny that after Tanaka signs suddenly he's this massive risk. All I was hearing about prior to the signing is that he's quite possibly gonna be better than Darvish.

And I'm not saying he will be by any stretch. It's just funny how a player instantly declines as soon as he's a Yankee.

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01-22-2014, 07:15 PM
  #545
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Funny that after Tanaka signs suddenly he's this massive risk. All I was hearing about prior to the signing is that he's quite possibly gonna be better than Darvish.

And I'm not saying he will be by any stretch. It's just funny how a player instantly declines as soon as he's a Yankee.

I don't remember anyone saying he's better than Darvish. Lots of people compared his upside to Kuroda.

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01-22-2014, 08:09 PM
  #546
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Yea, Ellsbury deal ends at 37 but he's also completely relies on his speed to justify his value which tends to go early. His bat isn't particularly impressive, he only had one year where he hit for power. His obp isn't good for a leadoff guy.

The Yankees only had to pay Cano a few more million per + the extra years but given Cano's skillset vs. Ellsbury's, the extra years might be a wash considering Ellsbury's decline could very well happen sooner.

Furthermore, the Yankees just broke the bank on a guy that's never pitched in the MLB.

Not bringing Cano back makes no sense unless they have knowledge of sterioid use or something.
Actually, guys like Ellsbury have historically aged fairly well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yanke...ed-aging-well/

The biggest problem is the past injuries and if he's truly injury prone or not.

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01-22-2014, 08:43 PM
  #547
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Actually, guys like Ellsbury have historically aged fairly well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yanke...ed-aging-well/

The biggest problem is the past injuries and if he's truly injury prone or not.
I hate to sound like a dick but this is why I hate fangraphs. Take an 11 person sample and try to prove something...

Ellsbury's value is heavily based on his ability to steal bases. They didn't sign him for his power or obp simply because neither are that good. It's no mystery that big SB numbers typically come in the early years of a player's career.

I could use Rickey Henderson and a bunch of other anomalies and write some article about how signing Cano until he's 41 is no biggie.

At the end of the day I think Ellsbury is massively overrated and overpaid considering the Yankees already had a good defensive CF with speed. Throw in the unjury factor that you mention and there's even more to be concerned about.

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01-22-2014, 09:01 PM
  #548
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Originally Posted by stan the caddy View Post
I hate to sound like a dick but this is why I hate fangraphs. Take an 11 person sample and try to prove something...

Ellsbury's value is heavily based on his ability to steal bases. They didn't sign him for his power or obp simply because neither are that good. It's no mystery that big SB numbers typically come in the early years of a player's career.

I could use Rickey Henderson and a bunch of other anomalies and write some article about how signing Cano until he's 41 is no biggie.

At the end of the day I think Ellsbury is massively overrated and overpaid considering the Yankees already had a good defensive CF with speed. Throw in the unjury factor that you mention and there's even more to be concerned about.
Ellsbury is a very good OFer who has one fluky uber-elite year. However, He put up 6 WAR in less than a full season. It's not outlandish to see how guys who have produced like him produced and try to see what the deal is.


Contracts are getting more expensive and the Yanks had the money. Getting a guy like Ellsbury, barring injury, was a fantastic move for the Yanks if they want to try to contend.

I honestly think he might be UNDERRATED, due to the fluke nature of his injuries. Adrian Beltre isn't going to fall on top of him and destroy his body every year. In 2011-2012, he was worth 1.5 wins in 70 games before injury, despite his BABIP being notably lower than his career average. Not crazy to imagine he could've put up 4 or more WAR that year as his BABIP normalized. If he averages 5 wins a year for the Yanks, it's a great deal. If he undershoots that a little bit (4~ WAR over the contract), oh well- that's the nature of FA. They still got a great player, though they had to slightly overpay.

It's one thing to argue that the Yanks shouldn't have signed ANYBODY and should've committed to rebuilding. However, since it's clear they don't want to do that, I think the Ellsbury deal is pretty solid.

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01-22-2014, 11:03 PM
  #549
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Realistically speaking, I can see this as the Yankees' 2014 Rotation, in no particular order:

--Tanaka
--Kuroda
--Nova
--Sabathia
--Nuno


Last edited by ADifferentTim: 01-23-2014 at 12:00 PM. Reason: Oops, had a tip of the tongue moment.
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01-22-2014, 11:11 PM
  #550
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Tanaka is effectively being paid $36 Million per year over 7

The Yankees will shell out $175 million for Tanaka -- $155 million in salary plus the $20 million posting fee. But that's not all. The signing also pushes New York past the $189 million tax threshold, which means a 50 percent tax on the overage. That means Tanaka's salary (if you choose to isolate it and the team remains well above the threshold) effectively gets taxed as much as $77.5 million, bringing the potential effective cost of signing Tanaka to as much as $252.5 million.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...w-york-yankees

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