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Kings are still a very good team and will win lots of games soon

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Old
01-30-2014, 12:38 AM
  #1
TonySCV
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Kings are still a very good team and will win lots of games soon

Robert_P doesn't post on JftC as often, but when he does they are always worth a read, because they are stat-based, fact-based posts that take all the hand-wringing out of it.

http://www.jewelsfromthecrown.com/20...-of-games-soon

Tons-o-nuggets in here. Samples:

"The Kings are the strongest puck possession team in the NHL. They currently lead the league with a 56.9% Corsi percentage. That would also be the 3rd best mark of the #fancystat era (which started in ’07-08).

How have they fared over this 17 game downturn?

Over that period and in close game situations, the Kings have churned out a 57.5%. They have actually improved their possession numbers despite the recent funk."

"More than anything the Kings goal scoring woes of late have been caused by extremely bad luck with regard to shooting percentage. And while it is possible that they have a lower than average true shooting percentage based on systemic issues and individual shooting talent, that is 4 to 5 times less important than their league leading shot differential.

Are there areas in which the Kings have room for improvement? Yes. Obviously their special teams are in shambles and perhaps they could mitigate some of their poor shooting talent by giving someone like Tyler Toffoli more ice time. But these are minor factors as compared their elite puck possession prowess.

"Among the factors within a team’s control, puck possession is the most important. No other factor is more predictive of future wins."

It’s not time to panic, there are plenty of wins on the horizon for the Kings."

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01-30-2014, 12:43 AM
  #2
Brad Doty
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Thanks Tony!

I linked something similar in the PGT. It's just all sorts of abnormal to be shooting three percent. Something's gotta give and soon.

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01-30-2014, 12:49 AM
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Yup. It'll even out. The defense is still awesome as ever and that's what matters most.

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01-30-2014, 12:52 AM
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I don't like this positivity. Trying to hide the truth huh Tony?

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01-30-2014, 01:04 AM
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Originally Posted by KingKopitar11 View Post
I don't like this positivity. Trying to hide the truth huh Tony?
Just blow it up then

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01-30-2014, 01:05 AM
  #6
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I'm not worried about the Kings the coming out of the slump...I'm more worried about when it happens.

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01-30-2014, 02:48 AM
  #7
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I'm a believer in fancy stats but the "they're just unlucky" explanation bugs me. Yes luck is definitely involved but what are the odds that the strongest possession team in the NHL would go through a streak of "bad luck" like this for the second time in three years?

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01-30-2014, 04:44 AM
  #8
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Some interesting info. The Kings will get more wins in the future, there will be more losses too. This coming down to bad luck is BS. Luck will balance out over the course of the season. Luck is not the reason they have 1 goal in the last 3.

Corsi and possesion are good ways of analyzing the game. With any mathematical models they are only as good as the information you put in.

As far as possession goes, there are other factors that need to be considered then just how much time your team posses the puck.

Who is possessing the puck? There is a big difference between say Lewis and Carter having the puck. One is dangerous with the puck the other is just going to skate in circles.

Then you need to consider are the players on a line that compliments their abilities? Toffoli is much more productive with King/Richards then say Clifford/Fraser. So say Toffoli has the same possession numbers with both lines. With King/Richards he will have a lot more quality opportunities.

Offensive scheme needs to be looked at next. Hawks/Ducks have a more offensively productive schemes so they generate quality chances at a higher rate. While the Kings are dicking around in the corner other teams try to set up one timers in the offensive zone.

Milking the stats. This one will not be popular. Williams pisses me off for this. It killes me when he's out with Kopitar gets the puck and instead of trying to get a pass through to Kopitar/make a play he dumps the puck in the corner. Is there a top 6 forward on any other team that does this ****? Is it common and I just miss it? If the play isn't pretty much fool proof Williams will just follow team strategy and cycle the puck. As a result time of possession increases, but since the Kings don't seem to have plays set up for scoring off the cycle the extra possession doesn't necessarily lead to scoring chances.

On Kings getting shots from scoring areas. The position of the shot isn't the only thing. Who is taking that shot? How did the player get the puck? Did the player get the puck off a nice fast crisp pass and got the shot off before the goalie could move into position? Was it a Kings style shot where the predictable pass goes across slowly. Shooter stops the puck, winds up, waits for traffic and goalie to get into position then rips the shot. If the Kings practiced this on every shift instead of dumping the puck they'd be much better at it!!! This won't happen because Sutter.

There are a lot of other variables that go into these numbers that aren't accounted for. Quality of the player/line with the possession, offensive schemes of the teams playing (specifically teams that set up better scoring chances then hey cycle dump to point crash net), Systems like the Kings that are about possessing the puck. Looking at these and other variables, I'm sure I missed, it is easy to see why the Kings are playing like **** despite having such great possession numbers. It isn't just luck. The Kings are a better team then they've been playing lately. I have to believe that they'll get more then 1 goal in the next 3 games. Is this because of luck? No... well unless Lewis scores again.

Kings/Hawks possession numbers aren't really comparable because there are too many variables between players/systems.

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01-30-2014, 06:38 AM
  #9
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Instead of looking at straight possession stats one could take into account say efficiency of possession. Teams have players of different skill levels, different coaches, different systems. So take number of goals and divide by time of possession. Remove the shootout goals, and remember to add the 5 mins for over time games. This should give a number for on average how long a team possesses the puck before scoring.

EX: Team A had 40 mins of possesion and 4 goals. Team B had 20 mins and 1 goal. So 4goals/40min leads to an average of 1 goal per 10 mins of possesion. The second team would have 1goal/20min.

The other trick would be estimating teams possession numbers against other teams. Track possession numbers high low range. Maybe add in quality of competition. Or use the ratio of the teams average times of possession.

An estimate could then be made between how much time of possession a team will get in a match up and their efficiency with that time. If you possess the puck 2 times as long as the other team but they are 2 times more efficient then the game should go to a tie. It could be a better way of evaluating different teams then just possession alone.

Are the Kings unlucky or is their lack of efficiency with the puck trumping their possession numbers?

Probably just easier to use a G/G number

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01-30-2014, 09:57 AM
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If a man has a million dollars, but never spends a penny of it, should he always be considered a millionaire? Sure, but he'll never have a nice house or car or any thing of monetary value that results in having that money. Feel me?

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01-30-2014, 10:20 AM
  #11
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After this latest crash I have moved on from 'bad luck', 'puck luck', corsi ratings and every other description/excuse being used to justify these stretches of play. There is now too much evidence over consecutive seasons that shows this team is deficient. The track record proves this out without any form of debate. This team is in need of some change to move them away from these "bad stretches".

Are the Kings a crappy team? No. Are the Kings declining in talent/ability to win? No. The list and types of questions can go on forever as we know.

This team, the players, the coaching, the system(s)....all of this combined is leading the team into what we see year after year. A large stretch of games they absolutely fall apart and seem to struggle to even bring effort on the ice.

We continue to hear about how 'mentally strong' they are, but often times the need to be strong in these situations is entirely self inflicted due to the team's poor performance on the ice. Instead of being a team that is proactive and tends to lead, they are a team that is and plays from a reactive standpoint.

How many times will they have to play perfect hockey at a 60-70% winning clip just to make the playoffs? Instead of maintaining a higher level of play through the entire season - a more even level of play. They crash at some point and must rely on an entirely extreme level of performance to make up for the shortfall. By continuing to repeat this cycle, they will only bring added stress upon themselves.

I equate this to my profession which I have been doing for over 20-years, sales. There is a natural ebb and flow in sales, but the goal is to maintain a consistent and constant rate. This makes achieving your goal much easier, compared to having big peaks and valleys in sales performance. I maintain a constant higher than average level of performance rather than taking my foot off the gas. The people that don't have to go 'balls to the wall' the last part of the year to make their numbers. Most of the time they miss and in the process burn themselves out.

Moving forward (over the summer) Dean I believe needs to take a serious look at this team and all the pieces involved. He has created a fantastic environment and culture based on winning and accountability. It is my belief the way we went about and built the team is the way to do it, from the draft and primarily internally. The structure, system and personnel he drafted and hired have been the correct ones to get them to where they are today.

Dean must advance and adapt his plan moving forward. I see this as a two-step process. One can rebuild a team using the type of play and players that Dean has brought in. Dean has made the first step and made it successfully by winning the SC and a 2nd WCF. This will work in the short term, but it will have a short life span.

We have been discussing it for weeks now, hell for years now because we see guys struggling. It isn't just physically, but mentally also. Look at them now and they have an empty look in their eyes.

Part of playing hockey is having fun out there. That is what makes you want to get back to the rink and stay after practice. LA's game honestly isn't that enjoyable to play 24/7. I've played on teams that had to rely on this type of game to stay competitive. It wears you down and the games aren't fun.

Dean HAS to now slowly (with Darryl and Morris in MAN) work to introduce new levels of play and players that will transform the games in MAN and LA. I'm not saying they strip the team of what has made them successful presently. They need to find a happy medium between present day and a team that can play with speed and skill.

Being able to play a game that implements a style of play with speed, skill and strong checking is fun because all the elements are there. When you rely entirely on a grinding style of play the players in time will lose interest. People enjoy shinny and rat hockey because it is just that - up/down the ice and having fun. EDM plays this and look where it gets them, so that isn't the answer. There MUST be balance otherwise your team sucks and the results aren't there. Right now LA is on the other end of the spectrum from the likes of EDM and we see what that produces.

Dean's next moves are crucial for the long term of the franchise. He must begin to adapt the culture, the personnel and game once again. He must once again raise the bar of accountability to an even higher standard. This team repeatedly falling into 10-20 game stretches of "funk" has to stop. Hearing the players drone on about "we know we have to play better" is just the usual post game player cliche interview. Don't talk about it, do it!

Going back to the sales world analogy. If I repeatedly fell into a stretch of wasting what is upwards of 25% of my time to achieve my annual goal, I would have been fired repeatedly. One can't keep pissing away 25% of your time to perform and hope to be successful. If I did waste this time and go into scramble mode I would burn myself out.

Dean has to begin a transformation by bringing in players with a different 'set of tools' that will help the team transform their game. If they simply add the needed LW say Vanek or Moulson, I guarantee this team will be right back here next season. Dean and Darryl must change how they play for parts of the regular season, so the guys don't burn out and just not show up.

This is past a few players 'suck', we lack a #1 LW, etc. There is a deeper set of circumstances within the culture and organization that have to grow and adapt.

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01-30-2014, 10:50 AM
  #12
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Frattin's hit about 12 posts!

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01-30-2014, 11:14 AM
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Put me in the "not worried" column.

Frustrated, sure, but this team's still good enough to do damage in the playoffs.

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01-30-2014, 11:26 AM
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Are there any statistics regarding "quality chances"? I mean having high puck possession is great and all but if you aren't getting the puck into a position to score whats the point? The shooting % is down because of where most of the shots come from imo.

Not trying to be a debbie downer, but there's issues that go beyond simple corsi and shooting % totals imo.

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01-30-2014, 11:35 AM
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TonySCV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingKopitar11 View Post
I don't like this positivity. Trying to hide the truth huh Tony?



Seriously though, Robert's stats/articles got me through the dark period of 2011-2012, and obviously that turned out OK.

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01-30-2014, 11:36 AM
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great read. tonight is a perfect game to start the turnaround!

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01-30-2014, 11:36 AM
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As a guy who wrote this team off in the summer/preseason because of the defensive personnel, I'm not worried. Honestly, these statistical trend analysis does nothing for me. What matters is the wins and losses column. Unlucky or not, the team on the ice hasn't been playing well. I didn't have to look in the sports almanac to make that assesment either.

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01-30-2014, 11:37 AM
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I will say that I think the Kings played a great game in San Jose and while they only scored one goal, they had plenty of chances and hit 4 (?) posts which is a bit of bad luck.

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01-30-2014, 11:51 AM
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I have just accepted that the Kings are what they are.

Given the last two campaigns I would say LA is a very good team.

The lack of scoring by our secondary just sucks. It could be just one of those years.

I don't think there is a "Jeff Carter" move we can make.

Like everyone else, I would like to see the PP addressed ASAP. Might not happen till the off-season.

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01-30-2014, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theMajor View Post
great read. tonight is a perfect game to start the turnaround!

Astrology says "yes".......




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01-30-2014, 12:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddy The Elf View Post
I will say that I think the Kings played a great game in San Jose and while they only scored one goal, they had plenty of chances and hit 4 (?) posts which is a bit of bad luck.
At least four. I counted six.

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01-30-2014, 12:12 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger23 View Post
Are there any statistics regarding "quality chances"? I mean having high puck possession is great and all but if you aren't getting the puck into a position to score whats the point? The shooting % is down because of where most of the shots come from imo.

Not trying to be a debbie downer, but there's issues that go beyond simple corsi and shooting % totals imo.
I agree with a lot of what everyone above has said really. The Kings still have insane possession number and advanced stats don't really account for the difference between systems. I'm sure there will be a piggyback stat at one point or another that looks at the quality of scoring chances in relation to corsi and such as well and that the Kings would hurt a bit from that, but it's not unrealistic to suggest that they will move back towards the middle.

Hell, even moving back towards the LOW end rather than the middle would be incredible. the Kings are still shooting 3% over the last stretch. Do you really think opposing goalies are going to keep up a 97% sv percentage all season? If the Kings get even back to the lowest shooting percentage in league history (which might be a fair comparable depending on how you feel about their scoring chances ), they DOUBLE that to 6.5%. So yeah, this is the calm before the storm.

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01-30-2014, 03:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redcard View Post
Put me in the "not worried" column.

Frustrated, sure, but this team's still good enough to do damage in the playoffs.
I'm with you the team will be fine. When the playoffs come around the scoring goes down and we will be tough to beat. Would you all rather us be like the flyers score 3-4 goals a game all season long and then go out on the first round every year hey that was our kings many years before DL started running the show.

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01-30-2014, 03:39 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Robert_P doesn't post on JftC as often, but when he does they are always worth a read, because they are stat-based, fact-based posts that take all the hand-wringing out of it.

http://www.jewelsfromthecrown.com/20...-of-games-soon

Tons-o-nuggets in here. Samples:

"The Kings are the strongest puck possession team in the NHL. They currently lead the league with a 56.9% Corsi percentage. That would also be the 3rd best mark of the #fancystat era (which started in ’07-08).

How have they fared over this 17 game downturn?

Over that period and in close game situations, the Kings have churned out a 57.5%. They have actually improved their possession numbers despite the recent funk."

"More than anything the Kings goal scoring woes of late have been caused by extremely bad luck with regard to shooting percentage. And while it is possible that they have a lower than average true shooting percentage based on systemic issues and individual shooting talent, that is 4 to 5 times less important than their league leading shot differential.

Are there areas in which the Kings have room for improvement? Yes. Obviously their special teams are in shambles and perhaps they could mitigate some of their poor shooting talent by giving someone like Tyler Toffoli more ice time. But these are minor factors as compared their elite puck possession prowess.

"Among the factors within a team’s control, puck possession is the most important. No other factor is more predictive of future wins."

It’s not time to panic, there are plenty of wins on the horizon for the Kings."
Indeed. All the club needs is a little more regression to the mean.

Of course, they could run out of sample size before they reach the mean.

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01-30-2014, 04:01 PM
  #25
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Stats are overrated. No good team loses this much.

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