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Grossmann is the worst defenseman on the team

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Old
01-31-2014, 03:21 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
And "safe flaws" are fine when you are not talking about a guy who is a -18 at ES through 54 games.

The article's thesis still applies even when you are talking about players of lesser caliber.
He spent a lot of time on the first pairing. Bump him down to the 3rd. See if he can turn things around there. He's spent a decent amount of time being solid in his stint here, it would behoove the team to try and get him back on track.

While it's certainly better to have a defensively reliable puck mover, I'll take a defensively reliable guy over someone like Mez who produces turnovers at a higher rate than anybody else on the team, and who isn't at all capable of covering for those mistakes.

Benching Grossmann for playing poorly defensively, for a guy who's even worse defensively before at least trying easy minutes doesn't make sense.

It would be grand to have that defensively reliable PMD to replace the pure defensive specialist in Grossmann, but that just isn't happening this season. Mez isn't reliable enough to be that guy.

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Old
01-31-2014, 03:22 AM
  #52
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A plus player only by virtue of an entirely unsustainable hot streak, much of which came during a weak stretch in the schedule. Once that hot streak ends (and it looked like it had by the time he was benched), you're left with a guy who's worse defensively than Grossmann, who isn't reliable at moving the puck out of his own end, who turns it over a whole lot.

Overall production is important, yes. Unfortunately, the other team has possession in our own end and produces a whole lot when Mez is on the ice. You're letting an unsustainable hot streak taint your view of Mez.
No I'm not. I'm looking at the entire sample size for what it is. Mezsaros was scoring 0.18 PPG for the first third of his season, that's not sustainable either. He isn't even 3 points over his career-average pace for 32 games. His on-ice SH% this year is a very tame 8.0 and a 1009 PDO is near enough to neutral. All of his stats -- including larger sample ones like CF, FF and SF -- are hovering right around average. Why would you expect his numbers to be much different from what they have been going forward? He's less than a tenth of a point off of his career norm for scoring, and seems to be healthy.

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01-31-2014, 03:24 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
No I'm not. I'm looking at the entire sample size for what it is. Mezsaros was scoring 0.18 PPG for the first third of his season, that's not sustainable either. He isn't even 3 points over his career-average pace for 32 games. His on-ice SH% this year is a very tame 8.0 and a 1009 PDO is near enough to neutral. All of his stats -- including larger sample ones like CF, FF and SF -- are hovering right around average. Why would you expect his numbers to be much different from what they have been going forward? He's less than a tenth of a point off of his career norm for scoring, and seems to be healthy.
He's going to be a minus player when he regresses to his career average for offensive production. The only reason he's a plus player is because of that hot streak where he produced at twice his normal rate. At his normal rate, last time I checked, he wouldn't be able to break even.

Which brings us right back to the original problem, doesn't it?

You're quick to bring up Mez's past, and quick to forget Grossmann's, who's current numbers are also oddly low for him.

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01-31-2014, 03:29 AM
  #54
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He spent a lot of time on the first pairing. Bump him down to the 3rd. See if he can turn things around there. He's spent a decent amount of time being solid in his stint here, it would behoove the team to try and get him back on track.

While it's certainly better to have a defensively reliable puck mover, I'll take a defensively reliable guy over someone like Mez who produces turnovers at a higher rate than anybody else on the team, and who isn't at all capable of covering for those mistakes.

Benching Grossmann for playing poorly defensively, for a guy who's even worse defensively before at least trying easy minutes doesn't make sense.

It's not from being on the top pairing. He's been outscored a Rinaldo-esque 16-4 at ES this month with sub-40% CF and 2nd pairing QoC. If anyone has been consistently bad enough to deserve to get benched, it's him.

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01-31-2014, 03:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
It's not from being on the top pairing. He's been outscored a Rinaldo-esque 16-4 at ES this month with sub-40% CF and 2nd pairing QoC. If anyone has been consistently bad enough to deserve to get benched, it's him.
....Or you could move him down to the 3rd pairing like I've been saying and see what happens, before bringing another defensive disaster into the mix.

You're buying high with Mez and selling low with Grossmann.

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01-31-2014, 03:33 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
He's going to be a minus player when he regresses to his career average for offensive production. The only reason he's a plus player is because of that hot streak where he produced at twice his normal rate. At his normal rate, last time I checked, he wouldn't be able to break even.

Which brings us right back to the original problem, doesn't it?

You're quick to bring up Mez's past, and quick to forget Grossmann's, who's current numbers are also oddly low for him.
Meszaros' numbers are in line with his past, so why should he get hammered for that, while Grossmann skates for badly underperforming?

If you want to split hairs and drop Mez's PDO to dead-even, then he's a dead-even player with a dead-even Corsi on a minus team. Meanwhile Grossmann is the most minus player by both goals and Corsi on the entire d-corps...

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01-31-2014, 03:34 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Meszaros' numbers are in line with his past, so why should he get hammered for that, while Grossmann skates for badly underperforming?

If you want to split hairs and drop Mez's PDO to dead-even, then he's a dead-even player with a dead-even Corsi on a minus team. Meanwhile Grossmann is the most minus player by both goals and Corsi on the entire d-corps...
For the dozenth time, Grossmann is also playing over his head right now. Bump him down to the 3rd pairing and see if he becomes useful. If he doesn't, bench him. Try Mez and watch him be a defensive disaster again. Then call up some young guys and see what they look like, whatever.

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01-31-2014, 03:37 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
....Or you could move him down to the 3rd pairing like I've been saying and see what happens, before bringing another defensive disaster into the mix.

You're buying high with Mez and selling low with Grossmann.
So you want to break up the Gus - Schenn pairing that's looking good for both players, or are you attributing Grossmann's monumental struggles in his paring just to the fairly average matchups they're drawing? A SDD with no offensive upside that needs to be sheltered defensively... is somehow preferable to anything? I don't get that. Grossmann is playing the worst by far, so he should sit. I think it's really that simple.

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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
For the dozenth time, Grossmann is also playing over his head right now. Bump him down to the 3rd pairing and see if he becomes useful. If he doesn't, bench him. Try Mez and watch him be a defensive disaster again. Then call up some young guys and see what they look like, whatever.

And for the 3rd or 4th time, I think you're vastly overrating QoC effects to excuse Grossmann's very awful play.

Mez has been average this year while recovering from injuries. Why wouldn't we expect him to continue to be at least average, on balance?

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01-31-2014, 03:49 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
So you want to break up the Gus - Schenn pairing that's looking good for both players, or are you attributing Grossmann's monumental struggles in his paring just to the fairly average matchups they're drawing? A SDD with no offensive upside that needs to be sheltered defensively... is somehow preferable to anything? I don't get that. Grossmann is playing the worst by far, so he should sit. I think it's really that simple.




And for the 3rd or 4th time, I think you're vastly overrating QoC effects to excuse Grossmann's very awful play.

Mez has been average this year while recovering from injuries. Why wouldn't we expect him to continue to be at least average, on balance?
I don't think I am overrating it. If he's in over his head with his confidence shot, time against easy competition could let him get his game back and his numbers could improve. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but it's a possibility.

Mez is average in the +/- column SOLELY by virtue of one of the hottest months of his career allowing him to outscore his mistakes...defensively, he hasn't been average, he's been downright bad.

At a normal pace, he's also a minus player while making life harder defensively. I would seek a better option.

I'm also not sure why the Schenn/Gus pairing would need to be broken up.

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01-31-2014, 04:14 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I don't think I am overrating it. If he's in over his head with his confidence shot, time against easy competition could let him get his game back and his numbers could improve. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but it's a possibility.

Mez is average in the +/- column SOLELY by virtue of one of the hottest months of his career allowing him to outscore his mistakes...defensively, he hasn't been average, he's been downright bad.

Ugh, do you not see how ridiculously biased that is? Meszaros' PDO and on-ice SH% this year are NORMAL, therefore his +/- is not suspect. Yeah, if you prejudicially take away a chunk of his best games, his numbers get worse. Wowzers.

When Mez was healthy and given a chance to play, his numbers improved and his confidence grew. He was helping the team in a big way. You pooh-poohed all of this. Then he had a rough stretch for a few games and immediately got yanked.

Grossmann is healthy and getting a chance, is a disaster on ice, and your response is: just coddle him more. If our supposed SDD needs sheltered QoC to be viable, what is the point even? To shut down the opposing checking lines? So we are breaking up effective pairings and coddling Grossmann in the hopes that he will stop being godawful, just so we can then put him back in the same situation where he's over his head again? I question the upside of this strategy.


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At a normal pace, he's also a minus player while making life harder defensively. I would seek a better option.

I'm also not sure why the Schenn/Gus pairing would need to be broken up.

Then how are you getting Grossmann to the 3rd pairing? You're turning Gus - Schenn into the 2nd pairing and Streit - Grossmann into the 3rd pairing as if that's going to fix things?

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01-31-2014, 05:06 AM
  #61
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Overall, this team has 4 bottom pairing D (not including Gill) and 3 play. 2 are relatively better offensively and 2 are relatively better at hits and blocked shots.

Of the two who can block shots and hit, Berube has scratched one and not the other, despite both of their overall games being significantly worse than last season.

They have two D that are consistently better defensively, which are Coburn (at least this year) and Timonen and a second pairing offensive D in Streit.

From Leftwinglock the two most frequent pairings are Coburn/Timonen (22.05%) and Streit/Grossmann (19.94%). Coburn/Streit have been paired only 2.05% of the time despite their being 1 and 2 in average even strength TOI. Timonen is 7th in average even strength TOI on the team.

I would rather Berube try Coburn/Streit and have Timonen play more even strength TOI with any of the 4 bottom pair D in order to cover for their frequent errors. This allows which ever one is playing especially bad to be scratched.

Coburn/Streit

Grossmann sucking:

Timonen/Meszaros
Gus/L. Schenn

L. Schenn sucking:

Timonen/Meszaros
Gus/Grossmann

Gus sucking:

Timonen/Grossmann
Meszaros/L. Schenn

Meszaros sucking:

Timonen/Grossmann
Gus/L. Schenn

If Grossmann and L. Schenn are in, they can substitute for some of Timonen's SHTOI. If one of Grossmann or L. Schenn are out, Streit could have some more 1rst PP time (might be on it next year if Timonen retires) and Mesz take some of Streit's 2nd unit PPTOI. Note: this is only taking a small amount of Timonen's specially team's TOI and not all of it to give him increased ESTOI to cover defensively for whomever he is paired with.

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01-31-2014, 05:18 AM
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Even when adjusted for zone starts...

Grossmann is:

-7th out of 7 Flyers D in GF%
-7th out of 7 in SF%
-7th out of 7 in FF%
-And 7th out of 7 in CF%


And his issues with zone clearance are nothing new. This study from a year ago finds him 14th-worst in the league in that department:



http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck...che=1362268029

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01-31-2014, 05:24 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Even when adjusted for zone starts...

Grossmann is:

-7th out of 7 Flyers D in GF%
-7th out of 7 in SF%
-7th out of 7 in FF%
-And 7th out of 7 in CF%


And his issues with zone clearance are nothing new. This study from a year ago finds him 14th-worst in the league in that department:



http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck...che=1362268029
Sure doesn't bode well for the idea of signing Girardi.

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01-31-2014, 05:30 AM
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Sure doesn't bode well for the idea of signing Girardi.
But it would bring our collection of current/former players from this list to 7 out of 20, so maybe it does. Gotta catch em all.

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01-31-2014, 09:18 AM
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Randy Jones is still in the NHL???

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01-31-2014, 10:18 AM
  #66
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But it would bring our collection of current/former players from this list to 7 out of 20, so maybe it does. Gotta catch em all.
I was just going to say there are a surprising amount of ex-Flyers on that list even if a couple of them (Huskins, Kubina, etc...) were only here for a cup of coffee.

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01-31-2014, 12:54 PM
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Ugh, do you not see how ridiculously biased that is? Meszaros' PDO and on-ice SH% this year are NORMAL, therefore his +/- is not suspect. Yeah, if you prejudicially take away a chunk of his best games, his numbers get worse. Wowzers.
Dude, how am I removing his best games? I'm not. I'm just pointing out the rate of production required to get his stats to that point is incredibly unsustainable. Look at his monthly splits. He produces evenly, he doesn't really have spurts of ppg play like he just did. It's an outlier. It's not gonna continue. All I'm doing is pointing out that when he returns to normal production, he will no longer be outscoring his terrible defensive play.

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When Mez was healthy and given a chance to play, his numbers improved and his confidence grew. He was helping the team in a big way. You pooh-poohed all of this. Then he had a rough stretch for a few games and immediately got yanked.
Because he was so awful defensively it almost outdid the good he was doing. It was a lot of flashiness for damned near nothing overall. He won us some games, yes...he also cost us some games on his own with his constant mistakes. What's the point if it's a wash? What's the point if the team's D is in a free fall, partly because of him?

Quote:
Grossmann is healthy and getting a chance, is a disaster on ice, and your response is: just coddle him more. If our supposed SDD needs sheltered QoC to be viable, what is the point even? To shut down the opposing checking lines? So we are breaking up effective pairings and coddling Grossmann in the hopes that he will stop being godawful, just so we can then put him back in the same situation where he's over his head again? I question the upside of this strategy.
Why not? Mez got tons of extra chances when Gus, a superior player, was healthy. Grossmann during his stint in Philly had been damned solid. Mez had his benefit of the doubt and he burned through it. Grossmann still has one step to go as far as I'm concerned. When/If he burns through it I'll call for his ass to become intimately acquainted with a seat in the press box.





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Then how are you getting Grossmann to the 3rd pairing? You're turning Gus - Schenn into the 2nd pairing and Streit - Grossmann into the 3rd pairing as if that's going to fix things?

Why not? You would have a PMD on every line, spreading that talent through the lineup. It's worth a shot, before bringing a known defensive disaster back into the mix.

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01-31-2014, 01:22 PM
  #68
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Even when adjusted for zone starts...

Grossmann is:

-7th out of 7 Flyers D in GF%
-7th out of 7 in SF%
-7th out of 7 in FF%
-And 7th out of 7 in CF%


And his issues with zone clearance are nothing new. This study from a year ago finds him 14th-worst in the league in that department:



http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck...che=1362268029
I've felt for a while now that Grossmann was a relatively solid defender, that would fit in well on a good team as a 2nd/3rd pairing guy, and that we were just asking him to do to much.

His inability to move the puck is a major liability, but we're also watching him play through the worst month of his career at the moment. Sometimes players slump. Remember the beginning of the year when people were suggesting we strip Giroux of the C, or trade him? It happens to everyone. I'd still rather see him in the lineup over Mez, especially with the kind of competition he faces. Just give him time and hope he rebounds to his norm.

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01-31-2014, 04:51 PM
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Grossmann is paid way too much and playing way too much given his abilities.

These are the pairs I want to see

Coburn/Streit
Timonen/Schenn
Gustaffson/Grossmann
Mesz

Gill.

Streit definitely needs a more mobile partner. Coburn is perfect for that also given he's defensively responsible. The only problem would be that both like to pinch.

Timonen/Schenn played well together last year and Schenn seems to be not that bad when paired with Timonen or Gus.

Grossmann on the 3rd pair limits his minutes to where he should be. Gus is very good joining and even leading the rush. And it would allow Grossmann to stay back.

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01-31-2014, 05:37 PM
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I know all you guys love Timo , but. He drives me crazy on the PP. He lines up in the middle and won't shoot! Then he makes cross ice passes that are usually intercepted or deflected away. He has cost us games. Get him for off the team. Hes old, small and dumb.

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01-31-2014, 05:44 PM
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I know all you guys love Timo , but. He drives me crazy on the PP. He lines up in the middle and won't shoot! Then he makes cross ice passes that are usually intercepted or deflected away. He has cost us games. Get him for off the team. Hes old, small and dumb.
His offense has really dipped this year but he has been very solid defensively while going up against the hardest competition along with Coburn. He would look a lot better if he went somewhere else where they wouldn't use him like a rented mule.

Streit should be on the first PP unit though.

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01-31-2014, 05:44 PM
  #72
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I know all you guys love Timo , but. He drives me crazy on the PP. He lines up in the middle and won't shoot! Then he makes cross ice passes that are usually intercepted or deflected away. He has cost us games. Get him for off the team. Hes old, small and dumb.
Yeah, he might not be as good as he once was on the PP, but he's still our best defenseman. He's certainly better than anybody else we could play on the point (except for maybe Streit at some point, but I haven't been impressed with him at all on the PP). And he's anything but dumb.

The biggest issue with him this year is his decreasing mobility.

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01-31-2014, 05:50 PM
  #73
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Yeah, he might not be as good as he once was on the PP, but he's still our best defenseman. He's certainly better than anybody else we could play on the point (except for maybe Streit at some point, but I haven't been impressed with him at all on the PP). And he's anything but dumb.

The biggest issue with him this year is his decreasing mobility.
It's tough for me to single out Streit because the 2nd unit as a whole has been pretty garage this year. However Streit has been producing offensively for us & we're paying him this big money but not maximizing his production enough by letting him play with the dreaded 2nd unit.

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01-31-2014, 05:58 PM
  #74
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It's tough for me to single out Streit because the 2nd unit as a whole has been pretty garage this year. However Streit has been producing offensively for us & we're paying him this big money but not maximizing his production enough by letting him play with the dreaded 2nd unit.
Yeah, that's true. Nobody on that unit is ever on the same page. Just based on the eye test though, I feel like Kimmo is a better quarterback still. Especially if he starts shooting more, and simplifying things.

I guess it's worth a shot to see Streit get a chance on the top unit for a game or two, though. After all, he'll be the guy next year for sure.

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01-31-2014, 06:09 PM
  #75
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Yeah, that's true. Nobody on that unit is ever on the same page. Just based on the eye test though, I feel like Kimmo is a better quarterback still. Especially if he starts shooting more, and simplifying things.

I guess it's worth a shot to see Streit get a chance on the top unit for a game or two, though. After all, he'll be the guy next year for sure.
They both struggle to keep the puck in this year. That's highly frustrating.

Streit's always been known as a PP specialist so that's where he has done the majority of his damage in his career. However this year he's still in the top 25 in points amongst defensemen despite not getting the better opportunities on the PP.

I understood going with Timonen on the 1st unit to start the year because I believed in the "if it isn't broken, don't fix it" method but Timonen hasn't been that great offensively this year & I believe Streit could make the first unit better than Timonen would at this point.

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