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Where does Jaromir Jagr rank purely offensively?

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01-31-2014, 01:33 PM
  #26
pluppe
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Fantastic post HO and I agree on almost erverything you said right down to.

I only have 2 thoughts to add.

When talking about balance you seem to mean defensive value. I agree that Jagr was all offense but I think he was this in a way that also maximized his defensive value in that he was a strong puck possession player. Much more so than for examample Esposito. This shows in his very good plus- even on bad teams. In this way he did not really sacrifise any defence for offense as you could argue it was for the good of the team defensively as well. Therefore it seems unfair to penalize him for this but I do understand your thinking.

The other thing is that if you have Orr in the top 3 then surely Coffey (whom nobody has mentioned yet) should have an argument for atleast the group after the ones you analyse and perhaps even in it alongside Jagr. In we only consider offence he is a long way ahead of most other defencemen and have even beaten a few Orr records. He also seems to have influenced high scoring seasons in others. Another factor that you could add as a category and that Jagr would also fare good in.


Last edited by pluppe: 01-31-2014 at 02:18 PM.
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01-31-2014, 01:44 PM
  #27
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
All of those other players (including Mario) have 1980s-inflated numbers so I'm not inclined to take "they scored more points" to mean much.
FWIW, adjusted career stats for the group mentioned:

Howe - 2190 in 1767 games
Jagr - 1898 in 1446 games
Messier - 1732 in 1756 games
Francis - 1711 in 1731 games
Yzerman - 1650 in 1514 games
Lemieux - 1540 in 915 games
Dionne - 1493 in 1348 games

Jagr is several seasons worth of GP behind anyone else who managed to get ahead of Mario.

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01-31-2014, 02:59 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
FWIW, adjusted career stats for the group mentioned:

Howe - 2190 in 1767 games
Jagr - 1898 in 1446 games
Messier - 1732 in 1756 games
Francis - 1711 in 1731 games
Yzerman - 1650 in 1514 games
Lemieux - 1540 in 915 games
Dionne - 1493 in 1348 games

Jagr is several seasons worth of GP behind anyone else who managed to get ahead of Mario.
Jagr's years as a top end scorer isn't any longer than Mario's though, he was just healthier and has more ok years tacked on. I don't think anyone can make a reasonable argument when that's the case. It's not the same as Howe vs. Lemieux, where Howe's peak is comparable, and while he didn't have Lemieux's prime at that level, he was a top scorer for twice as long. Or the Potvin vs. Lidstrom argument, where Lidstrom was a bit below at his best, but kept that up for far longer. The only way I could see it is if Jagr played at 94-01 levels for a 15 plus year period.

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01-31-2014, 03:07 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Regal View Post
Jagr's years as a top end scorer isn't any longer than Mario's though, he was just healthier and has more ok years tacked on. I don't think anyone can make a reasonable argument when that's the case. It's not the same as Howe vs. Lemieux, where Howe's peak is comparable, and while he didn't have Lemieux's prime at that level, he was a top scorer for twice as long. Or the Potvin vs. Lidstrom argument, where Lidstrom was a bit below at his best, but kept that up for far longer. The only way I could see it is if Jagr played at 94-01 levels for a 15 plus year period.
To add to this, both Lemieux and Jagr were postseason All-Stars 8 times.

Lemieux was a 5 time 1st Team All-Star, 3 Times 2nd Team All-Star C, with 2 of the 2nd Teams to Gretzky.

Jagr was a 7 time 1st Team All-Star, 1 Time 2nd Team at RW

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01-31-2014, 03:14 PM
  #30
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Regal View Post
Jagr's years as a top end scorer isn't any longer than Mario's though, he was just healthier and has more ok years tacked on. I don't think anyone can make a reasonable argument when that's the case. It's not the same as Howe vs. Lemieux, where Howe's peak is comparable, and while he didn't have Lemieux's prime at that level, he was a top scorer for twice as long. Or the Potvin vs. Lidstrom argument, where Lidstrom was a bit below at his best, but kept that up for far longer. The only way I could see it is if Jagr played at 94-01 levels for a 15 plus year period.
Putting their adjusted seasons side-by-side:

JagrLemieux
145165
144156
131141
121129
120127
117116
105110
99103
97102
9191
9082
8679
8640
7735
7633
7621
6610
610
590
510

Lemieux was about 10 points better per year at their respective 5-year peaks. They were about even (separated by 5 points or less) for their next 5 best years. Then there are 10 years where Jagr was producing anywhere from 7 to 61 more points per season.

And keep in mind that Jagr lost a full season to labor strife, plus 3 more to overseas play. The longevity difference between them really is huge when you start taking fragmentary seasons and missed seasons into account (Jagr having 7 more seasons of active play to date, 9 seasons of 81+ GP compared to Mario's 0, 14 seasons of 70+GP compared to Mario's 6, etc...).

I don't think it's Potvin vs Lidstrom, more like Orr vs Lidstrom. Very few people would take Lidstrom in that comparison, but there are a few out there who would and they do have a rational reason to justify that choice.

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01-31-2014, 03:23 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Putting their adjusted seasons side-by-side:

JagrLemieux
145165
144156
131141
121129
120127
117116
105110
99103
97102
9191
9082
8679
8640
7735
7633
7621
6610
610
590
510

Lemieux was about 10 points better per year at their respective 5-year peaks. They were about even (separated by 5 points or less) for their next 5 best years. Then there are 10 years where Jagr was producing anywhere from 7 to 61 more points per season.

And keep in mind that Jagr lost a full season to labor strife, plus 3 more to overseas play. The longevity difference between them really is huge when you start taking fragmentary seasons and missed seasons into account (Jagr having 7 more seasons of active play to date, 9 seasons of 81+ GP compared to Mario's 0, 14 seasons of 70+GP compared to Mario's 6, etc...).

I don't think it's Potvin vs Lidstrom, more like Orr vs Lidstrom. Very few people would take Lidstrom in that comparison, but there are a few out there who would and they do have a rational reason to justify that choice.
Adjusted points underrate 1st line players from the 1980s and thereabouts by a good deal, since they are based off league average scoring, and not the scoring of 1st line players.

A percentile method like Vs2 or VsX is a far superior method for comparing the offense of players of this calibre.

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01-31-2014, 03:26 PM
  #32
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Eff stats for stuff like this. Different opinions can be spun based on numbers, longevity, teammates, health, TOI, era, etc. An eye test trumps many of these numbers IMO. Jagr does things with the puck on his stick that only a few others in hockey history could do. Simple as that. If you watch hockey long enough you sort of have a "feel" or "instinct" for which players are (and were) better than others, etc. Stats only tell some of the story.

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01-31-2014, 03:28 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boxscore View Post
Eff stats for stuff like this. Different opinions can be spun based on numbers, longevity, teammates, health, TOI, era, etc. An eye test trumps many of these numbers IMO. Jagr does things with the puck on his stick that only a few others in hockey history could do. Simple as that. If you watch hockey long enough you sort of have a "feel" or "instinct" for which players are (and were) better than others, etc. Stats only tell some of the story.
When the question is "where does Jagr rank purely offensively, I think that properly applied stats tell... the vast majority of the story

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01-31-2014, 03:32 PM
  #34
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Adjusted points underrate 1st line players from the 1980s and thereabouts by a good deal, since they are based off league average scoring, and not the scoring of 1st line players.

A percentile method like Vs2 or VsX is a far superior method for comparing the offense of players of this calibre.
I know, but I don't have access to VsX numbers offhand and they tend to exclude Mario anyway

I think everyone would agree that Mario's peak offensive ability was higher than Jagr's. If someone wants to argue against that, well... they're just wrong.

My only point is that for someone who thinks in terms of overall long-term career value (ie, Lidstrom over Orr) it's not insane for them to put Jagr at Mario's level. Despite having a lower peak, he was reliable for a full season, played almost 50% longer and was still an all-time great offensively. At some point, the peak value starts to balance out with durability and reliability. I can see that argument, even though I personally take Mario and Orr in personal rankings.

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01-31-2014, 03:48 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I know, but I don't have access to VsX numbers offhand and they tend to exclude Mario anyway

I think everyone would agree that Mario's peak offensive ability was higher than Jagr's. If someone wants to argue against that, well... they're just wrong.

My only point is that for someone who thinks in terms of overall long-term career value (ie, Lidstrom over Orr) it's not insane for them to put Jagr at Mario's level. Despite having a lower peak, he was reliable for a full season, played almost 50% longer and was still an all-time great offensively. At some point, the peak value starts to balance out with durability and reliability. I can see that argument, even though I personally take Mario and Orr in personal rankings.
I think Jagr over Mario offensively is in the same category of argument as Lidstrom over Orr as an overall player, yes.

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01-31-2014, 04:00 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't think Jagr was ever farther ahead of the pack than Crosby is this current season
How do you figure?

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01-31-2014, 04:02 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
When the question is "where does Jagr rank purely offensively, I think that properly applied stats tell... the vast majority of the story
In a way, yes, but maybe I didn't explain my opinion correctly. If we are purely looking at numbers, then let's wiki all-time NHL leading scorers and the answer is black and white. But we can't do that because Lemieux and Orr are surpassed by the likes of Francis, Dionne, Yzerman, Recchi, Oates, Gilmour, etc. Yet, if an alien watched 50 games of Orr vs. any of those guys, even they would realize that Orr was better "offensively," right?

A classic example is: Jari Kurri. Incredible player, but if he didn't have 99 feeding him pucks all day, and instead played on the Canucks during the 80s, he wouldn't be close to the legend he is today. I firmly believe that. So situation, opportunity, health, ability to create individually, and the rest muddy the stat waters for me.

In fact, I'm not even using "stats" to hurt Jagr due to his longevity. It wouldn't matter to me if Jagr played an extra 4 years in Russia, I saw enough of him to rank him 4 or 5 all-time offensively on my list. The guy does magic that only a few others could ever do. I guess that's my point.

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02-01-2014, 06:39 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Boxscore View Post
I agree with this 100%. The same could have been said for Frosberg too. Even when he was broken down, north of 30 and playing with one foot in Philly, he was still among the best players in the world. Jagr in his prime, with the long, flowing mullet would absolutely munch the league right now. He'd be at least a 135-145 pointer while the next best (Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, etc.) were fighting for 100-120.
Based on what? He was a 120-125 pointer during his peak when scoring was pretty much the same as it now.

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02-01-2014, 10:03 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
That's a fantastic post, HO. Looking at all those different angles, it's kind of hard to escape the conclusion that Jagr is the best post-expansion offensive player other than Wayne/Mario. And really, he's got something of a case against Mario if one puts a lot of emphasis on longevity.
Yeah, that was a sufficiently comprehensive, if not entirely "scientific" way (not that such claims were made) of spreading it out in front of everyone, imo. Offensively it's pretty hard to rank him lower than 5th (allowing a spot for Orr, as some no doubt would).

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02-01-2014, 01:26 PM
  #40
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I think it's just plain silly to pretend Jagr is in the same class as Mario based on longevity.
Might as well make a case for Gartner over Lemieux while you're at it.

Fact of the matter is that it took Jagr a whopping almost 60% more games (1447 to 915) to even match and pass Lemieux's point totals. Adjusted or not, that's not even remotely close.

AND it took Jagr almost twice, that's TWICE as many playoff games to match Lemieux's PO goal total.

I have absolutely no issue saying that Jagr is easily top 3-5 offensively among forwards all-time but the drop off from 2nd to 3rd is the Grand Canyon.


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02-01-2014, 01:54 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post

The other thing is that if you have Orr in the top 3 then surely Coffey (whom nobody has mentioned yet) should have an argument for atleast the group after the ones you analyse and perhaps even in it alongside Jagr. In we only consider offence he is a long way ahead of most other defencemen and have even beaten a few Orr records. He also seems to have influenced high scoring seasons in others. Another factor that you could add as a category and that Jagr would also fare good in.
i totally agree with coffey being in the conversation.

- i think undeniably gretzky is number 1

- i could go with any of the other big 4 in any order

- jagr has a case for that last top 5 spot, but he has company; i think he's comfortably and inarguably top 10 all time though

- i'd put coffey in there too

just to hash it out to help me visualize this:

1. gretzky
2-4. in no order other than how much i like their face: orr, howe, mario
5-9. in no order other than backwards chronological: jagr, coffey, esposito, hull, beliveau

10. could be a lot of guys, but probably the contenders are morenz and mikita, maybe lafleur if you go crazy on peak/prime, maybe crosby eventually has a shot but he has a LOOOONG way to go.

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02-01-2014, 02:17 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Crease View Post
In terms of consistency and longevity, he's up there. Fifteen 30-goal seasons. Only Gartner has more. Once you start talking about 40- or 50-goal seasons, he's further down the list. Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, both Hull's, Ovechkin, Bure, Kurri, Lafontaine, Esposito, Yzerman, Kerr, Ciccarelli, Hawerchuk, Goulet. Obviously you have to account for era and linemates.
Jagr's strongest attribute though is not goal scoring but rather playmaking and putting up points.

Despite only having a few 40-50 goals seasons, he was top 5 in goals and assists in the same season 6 times, a feat only Lemieux, Gretzky and Howe have ever surpassed if I'm not mistaken.

He was also on pace for 50 + goals in 1994-95, 1996-97, 1999-00 to go along with his 62 goals in 1995-96, 52 goals in 2000-01 and 54 goals in 2005-06.

From an offensive stand point, I believe he is the 5th best player of all-time behind Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux and Howe.

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02-01-2014, 02:23 PM
  #43
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Based on what? He was a 120-125 pointer during his peak when scoring was pretty much the same as it now.
I would think the whole "clutch and grab" thing might have something to do with it? As it is now, he could still finish at a PPG pace and he's much slower and older than he was in his prime not to mention the fact that he also gets tired more than he did back then.

In fact he scored 123 Pts in 2005-06 at age 34 playing on an offensively starved team and he had absolutely no "Hall of Fame" players on that team.

If you put a 25-30 year old Jagr with his 6'3, 220-230 lbs frame and give him his then deadly speed and stickhandling and he would be easily a 120 + player and could score 130-145 Pts if things went well. After all he was playing at a 150 Pts pace in his first 39 games in 1999-00 (71 Pts in his first 39 games) (a season where scoring was comparable to now) until injuries ruined what looked like was going to be his best season in the NHL.

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02-01-2014, 02:27 PM
  #44
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I think I'd have Howe, and Esposito ahead of him.

I would say Beliveau, Richard, Bobby Hull, Bossy are in and around is range.

I think he's somewhere between 6-12 All-time offensively.
Jagr was a much better offensive player than Esposito was in that Esposito was very one-dimensional offensively and a lot of his assists came due to how many shots he took and how many rebounds his teammates put in the net not to mention that all of his success came by playing with Orr.

On the flip side, Jagr won 4 of his 5 Art Ross trophies without Lemieux and turned in one of the best seasons of the last 20 years at age 34 and Lemieux was nowhere near him then either.

Jagr is quite easily a better offensive player than Esposito especially if you adjust their point totals.

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02-01-2014, 02:31 PM
  #45
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How do you figure?
Crosby's lead over Tavares isn't nearly the kind of lead Jagr had over Selanne in 1998-99. While we're at it, Jagr also outscored Bure by 2 Pts despite playing 11 less games in 1999-00. If Jagr had played all 82 games, his scoring lead would have surpassed his 20 Pts lead in 1998-99.

The 1998-99 and 1999-00 seasons are a gap over his peers that Crosby has yet to reach. He could do it this season who knows.

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02-01-2014, 02:43 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
I would think the whole "clutch and grab" thing might have something to do with it? As it is now, he could still finish at a PPG pace and he's much slower and older than he was in his prime not to mention the fact that he also gets tired more than he did back then.

In fact he scored 123 Pts in 2005-06 at age 34 playing on an offensively starved team and he had absolutely no "Hall of Fame" players on that team.

If you put a 25-30 year old Jagr with his 6'3, 220-230 lbs frame and give him his then deadly speed and stickhandling and he would be easily a 120 + player and could score 130-145 Pts if things went well. After all he was playing at a 150 Pts pace in his first 39 games in 1999-00 (71 Pts in his first 39 games) (a season where scoring was comparable to now) until injuries ruined what looked like was going to be his best season in the NHL.
1) 2005-06 was a significantly higher scoring season than today

2). A projection based off a half season? Seriously?

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02-01-2014, 02:51 PM
  #47
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1) 2005-06 was a significantly higher scoring season than today

2). A projection based off a half season? Seriously?
I was only using the 2005-06 season to prove the point that a younger, lighter, faster Jagr would be the game's best offensive player by a wide margin. Most have Jagr's 2005-06 season as his 4th or at best 3rd best season in his career. He was much heavier and slower in 2005-06 so it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that a more athletic, nimble and mobile Jagr would be even better.

It's not a projection. Jagr had 96 Pts in 63 games and projected to 82 games, he would have scored 125 Pts.

Bure had 94 Pts in 74 games that season and projected to 82 games is 104 Pts. Jagr's gap would have been 21 Pts. As for the half season argument, it is quite obvious that injuries really hampered him down the stretch so that argument is relevant especially when we consider Crosby has had a history of injuries recently.

Jagr had 71 Pts in his first 39 games (1.82 PPG) but only managed to score 25 Pts in his last 24 games (the 19 games he missed were in between those 2 stretches). I don't think he would have maintained the 1.82 PPG all season long but this was Jagr at his very best and I think he would have scored more than 130 Pts had he remained healthy.

Crosby has yet to reach that level.


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02-01-2014, 03:55 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
I have absolutely no issue saying that Jagr is easily top 3-5 offensively among forwards all-time but the drop off from 2nd to 3rd is the Grand Canyon.
I certainly have no issue with saying that the drop from Gretzky/Lemieux to everyone else is a canyon when it comes "purely" to offense. The real conversation really starts from there, and it might begin with Jagr (again, one would expect Orr to get a lot of support by at least this point).

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02-01-2014, 04:29 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
It's not a projection. Bure had 94 Pts in 74 games that season and projected to 82 games is 104 Pts.

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02-01-2014, 04:33 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Why? He's played more than 50% more games than Lemieux and will end up with nearly 400 more adjusted points. If one strongly values longevity over peak performance, Jagr vs Lemieux is a compelling argument.
He only recently passed Mario in points. No such than as "adjusted points".
He has no case at all.

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