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Where does Jaromir Jagr rank purely offensively?

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Old
02-01-2014, 04:40 PM
  #51
vadim sharifijanov
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
2). A projection based off a half season? Seriously?
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
It's not a projection. Jagr had 96 Pts in 63 games and projected to 82 games, he would have scored 125 Pts.

Bure had 94 Pts in 74 games that season and projected to 82 games is 104 Pts. Jagr's gap would have been 21 Pts. As for the half season argument, it is quite obvious that injuries really hampered him down the stretch so that argument is relevant especially when we consider Crosby has had a history of injuries recently.

Jagr had 71 Pts in his first 39 games (1.82 PPG) but only managed to score 25 Pts in his last 24 games (the 19 games he missed were in between those 2 stretches). I don't think he would have maintained the 1.82 PPG all season long but this was Jagr at his very best and I think he would have scored more than 130 Pts had he remained healthy.

Crosby has yet to reach that level.
i think this is a very fair point.

2011 (41 games, difference of .34 PPG)

1. Sidney Crosby-PIT 1.61
2. Daniel Sedin-VAN 1.27
3. Martin St. Louis-TBL 1.21
4. Corey Perry-ANA 1.20
5. Henrik Sedin-VAN 1.15

2013 (36 games, difference of .31 PPG)

1. Sidney Crosby-PIT 1.56
2. Martin St. Louis-TBL 1.25
3. Steven Stamkos-TBL 1.19
4. Patrick Kane-CHI 1.17
5. Alex Ovechkin-WSH 1.17

whereas in any of crosby's full seasons where he leads the league in PPG, including what he's on pace for this year, his lead over the next guy is always in the ballpark of .15 PPG (.12 in '07, .16 this year), so half or less of the giant margins of his half seasons.


so here's jagr, in full, not half seasons:

1996 (82 games, difference of .24 PPG, but we'd have to account for the mario boost somewhat)

2. Jaromir Jagr-PIT 1.82
3. Eric Lindros-PHI 1.58
4. Ron Francis*-PIT 1.55
5. Joe Sakic*-COL 1.46


1999 (81 games, difference of .14 PPG, so in the ballpark of crosby's best full seasons)

1. Jaromir Jagr-PIT 1.57
2. Teemu Selanne-MDA 1.43
3. Joe Sakic*-COL 1.32
4. Eric Lindros-PHI 1.31
5. Peter Forsberg-COL 1.24


2000 (63 games, difference of .17 PPG, also in the crosby ballpark)

1. Jaromir Jagr-PIT 1.52
2. Joe Sakic*-COL 1.35
3. Pavel Bure*-FLA 1.27
4. Pierre Turgeon-STL 1.27
5. Paul Kariya-MDA 1.16


which is to say, if we're going to take crosby's '11 and '13 PPG margins seriously, we'd also have to take seriously jagr's hypothetical .47 PPG lead before his injury in 2000.

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02-01-2014, 05:03 PM
  #52
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Gretzky and Mario are ahead of him for sure. Is Orr? Serious question and I for one am a big Orr booster (heck, he's my avatar). You have to look at things here, he won two Art Rosses to Jagr's 5. Plus we never saw Orr after 28 years old. Jagr has done plenty since he was 28 years old. He won an Art Ross at 28 years old. Obviously Orr's overall game is what makes him a greater player, but if you only isolate the offense is Orr clearly ahead of him? Perhaps, but it isn't as big of a gap in my opinion as Mario or Gretzky.

Howe is another one I put over Jagr. He won 6 Art Rosses. Some by big margins just like Jagr. He was the all-time leading scorer until Gretzky passed him. Then it took until 2003-'04 before Messier finally did it. This is a record that trumps his peers as well. Who is closest to him in these terms from his own era? Beliveau? Then look at the difference from the offense alone. Big difference. Even Hull too. And of course Richard. So I would still put Howe ahead of Jagr offensively.

But there is a serious case for Jagr being the 5th best offensive player of all-time. I think you would have to do a close examination of him against Phil Esposito though. Both won 5 Art Rosses, both won 4 in a row. Both have years where they won them by significant margins (Esposito 1969, 1973, 1974) Jagr (1999, 2000 by projection). Their styles couldn't be more different, but their dominance is eerily similar.

The rest of the names I would say are Beliveau and Hull that can compete with him. Lafleur wasn't around long enough. Mikita and Richard both did one aspect of their offense better than the other I would say. Jagr was sort of like Beliveau where he did both very well amongst the greats.

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02-01-2014, 06:18 PM
  #53
vadim sharifijanov
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Gretzky and Mario are ahead of him for sure. Is Orr? Serious question and I for one am a big Orr booster (heck, he's my avatar). You have to look at things here, he won two Art Rosses to Jagr's 5. Plus we never saw Orr after 28 years old. Jagr has done plenty since he was 28 years old. He won an Art Ross at 28 years old. Obviously Orr's overall game is what makes him a greater player, but if you only isolate the offense is Orr clearly ahead of him? Perhaps, but it isn't as big of a gap in my opinion as Mario or Gretzky.

Howe is another one I put over Jagr. He won 6 Art Rosses. Some by big margins just like Jagr. He was the all-time leading scorer until Gretzky passed him. Then it took until 2003-'04 before Messier finally did it. This is a record that trumps his peers as well. Who is closest to him in these terms from his own era? Beliveau? Then look at the difference from the offense alone. Big difference. Even Hull too. And of course Richard. So I would still put Howe ahead of Jagr offensively.

But there is a serious case for Jagr being the 5th best offensive player of all-time. I think you would have to do a close examination of him against Phil Esposito though. Both won 5 Art Rosses, both won 4 in a row. Both have years where they won them by significant margins (Esposito 1969, 1973, 1974) Jagr (1999, 2000 by projection). Their styles couldn't be more different, but their dominance is eerily similar.

The rest of the names I would say are Beliveau and Hull that can compete with him. Lafleur wasn't around long enough. Mikita and Richard both did one aspect of their offense better than the other I would say. Jagr was sort of like Beliveau where he did both very well amongst the greats.
i find it very hard not to have jagr even or ahead of orr. sure, orr only had two art rosses, but with all due respect to your namesake esposito, i give orr partial credit for at least five and maybe all six of espo's art rosses. even looking just at offense, orr was a next-level genius that i think was above jagr, or espo, or hull. to think that nobody sniffed orr's assist record until gretzky in '81 is amazing, and it's amazing even without accounting for the fact that orr was a defenseman. up to gretzky's rookie season, orr has four of the five highest single-season assist totals ever and contributed to five of the top six single-season goals totals ever.

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02-01-2014, 06:41 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i find it very hard not to have jagr even or ahead of orr. sure, orr only had two art rosses, but with all due respect to your namesake esposito, i give orr partial credit for at least five and maybe all six of espo's art rosses. even looking just at offense, orr was a next-level genius that i think was above jagr, or espo, or hull. to think that nobody sniffed orr's assist record until gretzky in '81 is amazing, and it's amazing even without accounting for the fact that orr was a defenseman. up to gretzky's rookie season, orr has four of the five highest single-season assist totals ever and contributed to five of the top six single-season goals totals ever.
I agree with everthing here but just wanted to point out the fact that Esposito only won 5 Art Ross trophies, not 6 which is exactly the amount Jagr won.

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02-01-2014, 07:06 PM
  #55
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Crosby's lead over Tavares isn't nearly the kind of lead Jagr had over Selanne in 1998-99. While we're at it, Jagr also outscored Bure by 2 Pts despite playing 11 less games in 1999-00. If Jagr had played all 82 games, his scoring lead would have surpassed his 20 Pts lead in 1998-99.

The 1998-99 and 1999-00 seasons are a gap over his peers that Crosby has yet to reach. He could do it this season who knows.
As a reminder, Jaromir Jagr played an obscene amount of minutes in 1998-99 and 1999-2000, so much so that even despite missing 19 games in 1999-2000, the difference between league-leading forward's ES/PP TOI that year (1757 minutes) and Jagr's ES/PP TOI that year (1445 minutes) is comparable to the difference between Jagr's ES/PP TOI in 1999 (2023 minutes) and the runner-up in ES/PP TOI (1855 minutes). The runnerup in scoring in 1999 played 1671 ES/PP minutes (352 less than Jagr). The runnerup in scoring in 2000 played 1658 ES/PP minutes (213 more than Jagr).

Looking at a raw point or point-per-game lead with Jaromir Jagr is not going to be representative of the actual disparities in talent, because while Jaromir Jagr was the most talented offensive player of his generation, several of the other offensive superstars were relied upon for heavy defensive minutes (Fedorov, Kariya, Forsberg, Sakic, Modano) while Jagr was double and triple shifted on offensive minutes. Despite all of his Art Ross Trophies, Jagr has only led points per ES/PP time once (2000). Had the runnerups in scoring been relied upon for strictly offense and for as many minutes as Jagr was getting, maybe they don't win his Art Ross Trophies (Forsberg, Selanne, and Elias in 1998, 1999, and 2001 seem to be the most likely candidates; 1995 TOI is unavailable), but they at least close the gap on Jagr's leads to a greater extent.

Which is why asking for Sidney Crosby to have a 20 point lead on Tavares is unreasonable. In 2007, Crosby only played 1621 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1839). In 2009, Crosby played 1616 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1758). In 2006, Crosby played 1579 ES/PP minutes (the league leader, Jaromir Jagr, played 1782). The highest Crosby has played was 1706 ES/PP minutes in 2010... pretty far off from Jagr's 2023 minutes in 1999.

If the Penguins were to double and triple shift Crosby the way they did Jagr, then maybe the difference in scoring gaps would be relevant to the comparison. But what use is a 20-point scoring gap in 1999 to us when we know that Jagr recorded 17 points in the final minutes of those games with the extra shifts that were not afforded to Jagr's runnerup?

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02-01-2014, 08:06 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
As a reminder, Jaromir Jagr played an obscene amount of minutes in 1998-99 and 1999-2000, so much so that even despite missing 19 games in 1999-2000, the difference between league-leading forward's ES/PP TOI that year (1757 minutes) and Jagr's ES/PP TOI that year (1445 minutes) is comparable to the difference between Jagr's ES/PP TOI in 1999 (2023 minutes) and the runner-up in ES/PP TOI (1855 minutes). The runnerup in scoring in 1999 played 1671 ES/PP minutes (352 less than Jagr). The runnerup in scoring in 2000 played 1658 ES/PP minutes (213 more than Jagr).

Looking at a raw point or point-per-game lead with Jaromir Jagr is not going to be representative of the actual disparities in talent, because while Jaromir Jagr was the most talented offensive player of his generation, several of the other offensive superstars were relied upon for heavy defensive minutes (Fedorov, Kariya, Forsberg, Sakic, Modano) while Jagr was double and triple shifted on offensive minutes. Despite all of his Art Ross Trophies, Jagr has only led points per ES/PP time once (2000). Had the runnerups in scoring been relied upon for strictly offense and for as many minutes as Jagr was getting, maybe they don't win his Art Ross Trophies (Forsberg, Selanne, and Elias in 1998, 1999, and 2001 seem to be the most likely candidates; 1995 TOI is unavailable), but they at least close the gap on Jagr's leads to a greater extent.

Which is why asking for Sidney Crosby to have a 20 point lead on Tavares is unreasonable. In 2007, Crosby only played 1621 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1839). In 2009, Crosby played 1616 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1758). In 2006, Crosby played 1579 ES/PP minutes (the league leader, Jaromir Jagr, played 1782). The highest Crosby has played was 1706 ES/PP minutes in 2010... pretty far off from Jagr's 2023 minutes in 1999.

If the Penguins were to double and triple shift Crosby the way they did Jagr, then maybe the difference in scoring gaps would be relevant to the comparison. But what use is a 20-point scoring gap in 1999 to us when we know that Jagr recorded 17 points in the final minutes of those games with the extra shifts that were not afforded to Jagr's runnerup?
While I agree with this line of reasoning we should apply it to Crosby as well who is only 8th in Even strength point/60 this season.

http://www.extraskater.com/players/s...ype=rate&pos=P

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02-01-2014, 08:21 PM
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While I agree with this line of reasoning we should apply it to Crosby as well who is only 8th in Even strength point/60 this season.

http://www.extraskater.com/players/s...ype=rate&pos=P
Even-strength production and ES/PP TOI are two completely different things.

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02-01-2014, 08:51 PM
  #58
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which is to say, if we're going to take crosby's '11 and '13 PPG margins seriously, we'd also have to take seriously jagr's hypothetical .47 PPG lead before his injury in 2000.
That is kind of my point. The poster I was responding to has said elsewhere (many many times) that he is adamantly opposed to projecting Crosby's partial season statistics over a full season, so I found it inconsistent that he would do the same for Jagr

I didn't exactly make the point in the most elegant way possible. Heh.

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02-02-2014, 06:06 AM
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Even-strength production and ES/PP TOI are two completely different things.
That's true but he doesn't lead the league in points per minute either. I believe that has some bearing in this discussion.

http://www.extraskater.com/players/s...e=rate&sit=all

And I get both Getzlaf and Crosby to 3,82 points per 60 for EV + PP (with reservations for mistakes).

(for the record I do think Crosby is at Jagrs level in offensive ability)


Last edited by pluppe: 02-02-2014 at 06:44 AM.
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02-02-2014, 10:42 AM
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I would think the whole "clutch and grab" thing might have something to do with it? As it is now, he could still finish at a PPG pace and he's much slower and older than he was in his prime not to mention the fact that he also gets tired more than he did back then.

In fact he scored 123 Pts in 2005-06 at age 34 playing on an offensively starved team and he had absolutely no "Hall of Fame" players on that team.

If you put a 25-30 year old Jagr with his 6'3, 220-230 lbs frame and give him his then deadly speed and stickhandling and he would be easily a 120 + player and could score 130-145 Pts if things went well. After all he was playing at a 150 Pts pace in his first 39 games in 1999-00 (71 Pts in his first 39 games) (a season where scoring was comparable to now) until injuries ruined what looked like was going to be his best season in the NHL.
If it isn't "clutch and grab", something else has brought the scoring levels down to the DPE. Better goalies, defensive systems etc... I don't see how you can you conclusively say that a prime Jagr scores more today than he did in the late '90s. Maybe a prime Crosby is more productive in the DPE than he is today.

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02-02-2014, 12:07 PM
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That is kind of my point. The poster I was responding to has said elsewhere (many many times) that he is adamantly opposed to projecting Crosby's partial season statistics over a full season, so I found it inconsistent that he would do the same for Jagr

I didn't exactly make the point in the most elegant way possible. Heh.
ah. well that was a fair point too, then.

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02-02-2014, 08:46 PM
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If it isn't "clutch and grab", something else has brought the scoring levels down to the DPE. Better goalies, defensive systems etc... I don't see how you can you conclusively say that a prime Jagr scores more today than he did in the late '90s. Maybe a prime Crosby is more productive in the DPE than he is today.
This suits the Crosby agenda perfectly but yes the clutch and grab was the main reason why scoring levels went down during the DPE. It's not just Jagr but a lot of the other stars from the 90's that could have been much better if penalties were being called the way they are now. Selanne, Bure, Karyia, Forsberg, Sakic, Lindros could have all benefited from the current NHL's rules.

Crosby wouldn't have faired any better during the DPE because those big defencemen would have made Crosby's life a living hell on the ice. Crosby's body is no different than Forsberg in terms of physique, they both are 5'11-6'0 and 200-205 lbs. Jagr on the other hand is 6'3 and 225 + lbs, that is the main reason why he is still putting up near PPG numbers this season despite being about 3 steps slower than he was during his prime not to mention less capable of playing big minutes.

The rules of the current NHL would have been perfect for Jagr, he would have been even more unstoppable. The closest current player to Jagr in terms of that combination of skill, stickhandling, size, speed and strength is Malkin and yet he's not the 220-230 lbs that Jagr was during the DPE.

You can try and spin it any way you want but I don't know how anyone can say that Crosby is on Jagr's level offensively. Jagr had pure offensive numbers and finishes to back his case, Crosby has PPG and projection.

Jagr's top scoring finishes are 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, that is a total of 7 times in his career in which he was 2nd or 1st in scoring. Crosby so far has been a could have, should have, would have.

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02-02-2014, 08:59 PM
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^ on the other hand, jagr was also the perfect scoring forward for the DPE. with his incredible size and skill combination, and how hard he was to knock off the puck or obstruct, or how he could score even with guys waterskiing off him, maybe that allowed him to stand out from his peers more than he would have in a more wide-open era.

which it to say, jagr is the greater offensive force than a guy like selanne, no question. but peak selanne's numbers would have been closer to peak jagr's in 1987 or 1993 or 2006 than they were in 1998.

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02-02-2014, 09:07 PM
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^ on the other hand, jagr was also the perfect scoring forward for the DPE. with his incredible size and skill combination, and how hard he was to knock off the puck or obstruct, or how he could score even with guys waterskiing off him, maybe that allowed him to stand out from his peers more than he would have in a more wide-open era.

which it to say, jagr is the greater offensive force than a guy like selanne, no question. but peak selanne's numbers would have been closer to peak jagr's in 1987 or 1993 or 2006 than they were in 1998.
Jagr though was also very fast in his prime, obviously not as fast as Selanne or Bure but pretty darn close so even during the open era he could have done well. Look at Jagr in 1995-96, he was darn near unstoppable and that was a wide open type of game going on. With that speed and size combination, he would have been unstoppable now.


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02-02-2014, 09:45 PM
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^ yeah, that's not my point though. my point is jagr is equally unstoppable whether it's 1987 or 1993 or 1998 or 2006. selanne, among other smaller guys who aren't as good at shielding the puck, is more effective in 1993 or 2006 than 1998. which stands to reason that the gap between jagr and selanne in 1998 is probably larger than the gap between jagr and selanne in 1993 or 2006. (assuming they are in their peaks of course.) which is to say that maybe he had an advantage in the DPE, instead of being hindered by it, because he was one of the few special players who had a body, game, and skillset built for it.

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02-02-2014, 11:22 PM
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Jagr though was also very fast in his prime, obviously not as fast as Selanne or Bure but pretty darn close so even during the open era he could have done well. Look at Jagr in 1995-96, he was darn near unstoppable and that was a wide open type of game going on. With that speed and size combination, he would have been unstoppable now.

And Mike Gartner was faster than all of them AND he scored more goals than all of them (Jagr still needs another 11 goals to pass Gartner btw).

But Rhiessan, why would you bring up Gartner?
That's a very good question Rhiessan!
Thanks Rhiessan!

Well, that would be because ranking Jagr with Lemieux based on longevity would be the same as ranking Gartner with Jagr.

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02-02-2014, 11:23 PM
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And Mike Gartner was faster than all of them AND he scored more goals than all of them (Jagr still needs another 11 goals to pass Gartner btw).

But Rhiessan, why would you bring up Gartner?
That's a very good question Rhiessan!
Thanks Rhiessan!

Well, that would be because ranking Jagr with Lemieux based on longevity would be the same as ranking Gartner with Jagr.
Awkward internal dialogue aside, I agree with you.

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02-02-2014, 11:51 PM
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For me, it came down to Howe and Jagr. Probably Howe though.

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02-03-2014, 04:41 AM
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This suits the Crosby agenda perfectly but yes the clutch and grab was the main reason why scoring levels went down during the DPE. It's not just Jagr but a lot of the other stars from the 90's that could have been much better if penalties were being called the way they are now. Selanne, Bure, Karyia, Forsberg, Sakic, Lindros could have all benefited from the current NHL's rules.
Crosby wouldn't have faired any better during the DPE because those big defencemen would have made Crosby's life a living hell on the ice. Crosby's body is no different than Forsberg in terms of physique, they both are 5'11-6'0 and 200-205 lbs. Jagr on the other hand is 6'3 and 225 + lbs, that is the main reason why he is still putting up near PPG numbers this season despite being about 3 steps slower than he was during his prime not to mention less capable of playing big minutes.

The rules of the current NHL would have been perfect for Jagr, he would have been even more unstoppable. The closest current player to Jagr in terms of that combination of skill, stickhandling, size, speed and strength is Malkin and yet he's not the 220-230 lbs that Jagr was during the DPE.

You can try and spin it any way you want but I don't know how anyone can say that Crosby is on Jagr's level offensively. Jagr had pure offensive numbers and finishes to back his case, Crosby has PPG and projection.

Jagr's top scoring finishes are 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, that is a total of 7 times in his career in which he was 2nd or 1st in scoring. Crosby so far has been a could have, should have, would have.
So now it's just not Jagr, it's other stars from the DPE would score more now? What's your explanation as to why scoring is at or below DPE levels the past few years. It seems that something, if not clutching and grabbing, has emerged to bring scoring levels down.

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02-03-2014, 05:06 AM
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So now it's just not Jagr, it's other stars from the DPE would score more now? What's your explanation as to why scoring is at or below DPE levels the past few years. It seems that something, if not clutching and grabbing, has emerged to bring scoring levels down.
Yeah, instead of the 3rd and 4th lines around the League being filled out with the biggest lesser talented players that could be found. Now those 3rd and 4th lines are being filled out by the fastest lesser talented players that can be found.

"New" League, same problem. Namely, that talent isn't the onus any more. It was size over talent in the DPE and it's speed over talent today.

Until talent is the onus again like it was in the early 90's and before, it's not going to change.

You can pretend that there's just as much talent in the League today as there was in the early 90's but you'd be wrong because you would only be looking at the 1rst and 2nd lines. It's the talent level of the 3rd and 4th lines that is vastly inferior.

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02-03-2014, 05:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Yeah, instead of the 3rd and 4th lines around the League being filled out with the biggest lesser talented players that could be found. Now those 3rd and 4th lines are being filled out by the fastest lesser talented players that can be found.

"New" League, same problem. Namely, that talent isn't the onus any more. It was size over talent in the DPE and it's speed over talent today.

Until talent is the onus again like it was in the early 90's and before, it's not going to change.

You can pretend that there's just as much talent in the League today as there was in the early 90's but you'd be wrong because you would only be looking at the 1rst and 2nd lines. It's the talent level of the 3rd and 4th lines that is vastly inferior.
The point made by the other poster was that point totals for the high end scorers from the DPE (late '90s to early '00s) would be higher today. I.E. Jagr, Lindros, Sakic, Forsberg etc.. would all be more productive than the elite scorers of today even though scoring levels are about the same.

Unless I am missing something, the point you are making doesn't seem to back this up.

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02-03-2014, 09:34 AM
  #72
Jabroni
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Originally Posted by Crease View Post
In terms of consistency and longevity, he's up there. Fifteen 30-goal seasons. Only Gartner has more. Once you start talking about 40- or 50-goal seasons, he's further down the list. Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, both Hull's, Ovechkin, Bure, Kurri, Lafontaine, Esposito, Yzerman, Kerr, Ciccarelli, Hawerchuk, Goulet. Obviously you have to account for era and linemates.
Gartner has the same amount. Jagr tied that record in 2006-07.

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02-03-2014, 10:32 AM
  #73
tarheelhockey
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Well, that would be because ranking Jagr with Lemieux based on longevity would be the same as ranking Gartner with Jagr.
Except that Jagr demolishes Gartner even in both peak and longevity categories.

Ex: Jagr has 400 more unadjusted points than Gartner and will likely pass him in unadjusted goals. And that's after missing 5 seasons to lockouts and KHL, and without any consideration to playing in the DPE vs the 1980s. Even if you wanted to ignore quality of play and look strictly at compilation, there still wouldn't be a way to spin it in Gartner's favor.

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02-03-2014, 03:48 PM
  #74
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Jagr IMO, is the 5th best offensive player of all-time behind the big 4.

1. Gretzky
2. Lemieux
3. Orr
4. Howe
5. Jagr

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02-03-2014, 11:29 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Except that Jagr demolishes Gartner even in both peak and longevity categories.

Ex: Jagr has 400 more unadjusted points than Gartner and will likely pass him in unadjusted goals. And that's after missing 5 seasons to lockouts and KHL, and without any consideration to playing in the DPE vs the 1980s. Even if you wanted to ignore quality of play and look strictly at compilation, there still wouldn't be a way to spin it in Gartner's favor.
And it took Jagr almost 60% more games (550 more) to match Mario's points totals!
Adjusted or not, that's the Grand Canyon right there.

So you're right, I can't spin Gartner to be on Jagr's level, just like you can't spin Jagr to be on Mario's.

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