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Where does Jaromir Jagr rank purely offensively?

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Old
02-04-2014, 08:08 PM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
And lets face facts, production counts sure but there's a reason Mike Gartner doesn't make it very high on any lists despite "out scoring" all but 5 players and "out producing" all but 28 in history.
Gartner compiled his way to 17th in adjusted goals and 53rd in adjusted points.

Jagr:

Goals- 7th (19 away from 5th)
Assists- 10th (8th among forwards... 25 away from 5th among forwards)
Points- 7th (35 away from 5th)
GC- 7th (less than 17 away from 5th)
ESG- 2nd since expansion
GWG- 1st since expansion

Adjusted...
Goals- 2nd
Assists- 4th
Points- 3rd
GC- 3rd

Seems like a shoe-in for top 5 player on offense, at least on a career basis. His adjusted peak/prime numbers put him in top 3-4 as well, so don't see any real basis to keep him out of top 5. The only player who clearly beats him in offense in peak, prime and career is Gretzky.

Of course, the raw totals do not include ~2 seasons' worth of games missed due to lockout, while the adjusted totals do not include the '05 lockout season. Neither include the 3 seasons '09-'11 that he spent in KHL, and he is still playing (well).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Like I and a few others mention earlier, if we were talking career then there's some merit to be discussed.
We're not though, we're talking about pure offensive ability and how being a 55-60 point player now somehow makes up offensive ground on a Mario Lemieux is beyond me.
Did OP clarify that he meant best, as in peak or short prime?

I wasn't sure, since the OP mentioned career milestones, but also mentioned Orr as one of the top 3 (obv. a peak/prime argument).

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02-04-2014, 08:31 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by SaintPatrick33 View Post
If by "often" you mean you've said that in one post and trashed him in about a hundred others I suppose you can claim you've said that "often"
I guess one reads what they want to but my thinking has been really consistent on Mario, any time pure offense or who is the greatest all time in skill comes up my answer never wavers it's Mario (okay sometimes Wayne is in the conversation too but is that "trashing Mario") but keep on the distraction.

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02-04-2014, 10:20 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Does Jagr even have 600 total GP in which he didn't get a single point?
But that's not what you said, you said take Jagr's BEST 900 and THEN add in the other 600 "extra". Once you take away Jagr's 900 best, I guarantee you he doesn't maintain a PpG over the remaining 600.

Quote:
your logic here leads me to see why you would take Mario's 900 over Jagr's 1500 if you think 125 and 600 GP at the same level means anything similar to each other.
My logic? I'm trying to figure out your logic.
All you're doing here is attempting to avoid answering because you know that player A is Crosby and player B is OV and you know that there's no way to defend your logic without shooting your self in the foot.

You're right though, 125 games isn't 600 but at the same time, Crosby doesn't have any where remotely close to the peak advantage on OV that Lemeiux has on Jagr either.
So clearly, under your criteria, OV should be the hands down pick for who you would rather have since 2005 right?


Quote:
Once again the only seasons where Jagr has 55-60 points were

91-57 points
92-67 points
12- 54 points
13- 35 points in 45 GP and a 48 game season
14-48 points in 57 GP
Well...that's 325 games right there.
How about we add in the other 2 seasons (04 and 08) where Jagr wasn't a PpG player too, now we're up to 484 games and only 408 points (0.84PpG)
That leaves 964 games/1328 points (1.38PpG) for Jagr vs 915 games/1723 points (1.88PpG) for Lemeiux.
So your argument is that 408 points in 484 games somehow makes up that ridiculous gap?


Quote:
As for the extra 600 GP needed, some of that is due to the differences in how scare goals are or are you going to ignore that reality?
Ummm yeah...it took Jagr almost 60% more games to match Mario. The League average between today and 1989 is only around 30% harder to score and that's the League average devoid of what the actual % is between top tier scorers then and now which is closer to the 15% range.


Quote:
Yes Mario was a superstar from his first season one were guys named Ogrodnick, Tonelli, McLean and Brent Sutter all had as many or more pints than Mario.
Yeah, Mario was 18 and on an absolutely terrible team, he followed that up finishing 2nd only to Gretzky in his second season. What's Jagr's excuse for taking 4 seasons to barely make the top 10?
BTW, aren't you the guy that argues Crosby's first 8 seasons over Jagr's first 8 seasons? You know despite Jagr playing 110 more games that Crosby over that span?

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02-04-2014, 10:28 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
What's Jagr's excuse for taking 4 seasons to barely make the top 10?
I think it's mainly that in his first 3 seaons he was on the 3rd & then 2nd lines... and had very limited PP time.

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02-04-2014, 10:53 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
But that's not what you said, you said take Jagr's BEST 900 and THEN add in the other 600 "extra". Once you take away Jagr's 900 best, I guarantee you he doesn't maintain a PpG over the remaining 600.
Well yes I was taking about his best 900 (over seasons, not on a game by game breakdown actually) but if you wanted to do it that we I guess we could see how many games each player had with zero points and knock both totals off each of their lists.

Let's say for arguments sake, I'm not sure the numbers are easily availble, and of course you won't want to account for era at all right?, that Mario ahs 100 GP with zero points and Jagr has 300, that still leaves us with 815 GP with points for Mario and 1148 for Jagr (assuming you don't want to give Jagr any credit for the lockout years either, otherwise known as stacking the deck in favor of you argument as much as possible, that's still 4 entire seasons of games for Jagr.

Actually the numbers are there and I will run them later and get back to this part.



Quote:
My logic? I'm trying to figure out your logic.
All you're doing here is attempting to avoid answering because you know that player A is Crosby and player B is OV and you know that there's no way to defend your logic without shooting your self in the foot.

You're right though, 125 games isn't 600 but at the same time, Crosby doesn't have any where remotely close to the peak advantage on OV that Lemeiux has on Jagr either.
So clearly, under your criteria, OV should be the hands down pick for who you would rather have since 2005 right?
On pure offesne I'm not sure would have to look at their numbers but their case is still entirely different than Mario and Jagr nand they played at teh same time.

Here are the numbers for both guys

AO 653-793
Sid 526-740

So 53 more points for AO in 127 GP? how is that in any way like 915 games to over 1400?

Either way it looks like Sid is going to pass AO in the next season or 2 in raw points and it won't matter anyways.




Quote:
Well...that's 325 games right there.
How about we add in the other 2 seasons (04 and 08) where Jagr wasn't a PpG player too, now we're up to 484 games and only 408 points (0.84PpG)
That leaves 964 games/1328 points (1.38PpG) for Jagr vs 915 games/1723 points (1.88PpG) for Lemeiux.
So your argument is that 408 points in 484 games somehow makes up that ridiculous gap?
see you are still stuck to raw points having the same meaning in every season, did you even bother to look up how poor his 04 and 08 seasons are?

well in 04 he had a horrible season with 74 points in 77 GP but you know what it was good for 15th best in the NHL, which isn't average by any metric and the metric here is offense right so he was 15th best in the league in a poor season.

In 08 he had another of his "horrible season" with 71 points in 77 GP good for a tie of 33rd best in the league, quite a bit better than replacement level or average, even for a 1st liner he is close to the top 1/3 of all 1st line players in the league.

Last season, the 13 one he had 35 points, good for 51st in the league, not bad for a league with 90 first line players really is it?

this year he is on pace, like everyone else is at this point, for around 24-30th place in scoring, maybe his age shows and he is in the low 30 again, yes just off the cusp off the top tier of 1st line players in the league again....see where your argument is weak here?




Quote:
Ummm yeah...it took Jagr almost 60% more games to match Mario. The League average between today and 1989 is only around 30% harder to score and that's the League average devoid of what the actual % is between top tier scorers then and now which is closer to the 15% range.
No idea on why one would only take the year 89 and look at it but again more on that later when I have more time.




Quote:
Yeah, Mario was 18 and on an absolutely terrible team, he followed that up finishing 2nd only to Gretzky in his second season. What's Jagr's excuse for taking 4 seasons to barely make the top 10?
BTW, aren't you the guy that argues Crosby's first 8 seasons over Jagr's first 8 seasons? You know despite Jagr playing 110 more games that Crosby over that span?
The point of the matter was to show how much easier it was to score 100 points in one era over another, something you simply downplay at every turn.

As for the Sid and Jagr first 8 years argument, regular season, playoffs and line mates and defensive play were factors as well right? Well they are thing I took into account and Jagr had many zero point games in those 110 extra games as well, pretty sure you want to open that box again?

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Old
02-04-2014, 11:33 PM
  #106
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Jagr and Mario in games where they scored points

Sadly hockey reference only has the game breakdown from 88 on so we are missing Mario first 3 seasons but I was overly generous to Mario here in the analysis.

Mario 88-06 had exactly 530 GP where he scored a single point or more, Jagr has up until game 57 of this year 980 GP with a single point or more.

To be generous and I think the actual number of GP with a point in Mario's first 3 seasons will be less I ballparked 50/73, 55/79 and 50/63 for an extra 155 games for Mario.

Mario 685 GP with a point (maybe as low as 670ish GP), Jagr has 980 which is basically 300 more GP with a point based strictly on raw numbers and no accounting for lockouts, era scoring ect...

Yes I will take those 300 GP 8 days a week, especially when one factors in era scoring and lockouts, which hurts Jags case more than Mario.

Top scoring finishes will also give the peak to Mario but lousy years like the 04 15th place finish more than make up the difference IMO.

I'm almost 100% certain that Sid has more GP with a point scored than AO does at this point as well but might do that another time.

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02-05-2014, 06:21 AM
  #107
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Based on what players did on offense (not could have done if not injured or playing a different position, etc.), I see it roughly:

PEAK
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux

Jagr
Espo, Orr, Howe
Hull, etc.

PRIME
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr
Howe, Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

CAREER
=====
Gretzky
Howe
Jagr
Lemieux, Hull
Espo

OVERALL
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux
Jagr, Howe
Espo
Hull, Orr

I would say 3rd or 4th all-time on offense seems a fair assessment, depending on how one values various factors and time frames.
Espo & Orr are particularly difficult to separate and evaluate.

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02-05-2014, 07:18 AM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Based on what players did on offense (not could have done if not injured or playing a different position, etc.), I see it roughly:

PEAK
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux

Jagr
Espo, Orr, Howe
Hull, etc.

PRIME
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr
Howe, Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

CAREER
=====
Gretzky
Howe
Jagr
Lemieux, Hull
Espo

OVERALL
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux
Jagr, Howe
Espo
Hull, Orr

I would say 3rd or 4th all-time on offense seems a fair assessment, depending on how one values various factors and time frames.
Espo & Orr are particularly difficult to separate and evaluate.
Is there a reason you choose to not have a gap between Gretzky and the rest for career and overall or did you just miss it?

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02-05-2014, 12:16 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Based on what players did on offense (not could have done if not injured or playing a different position, etc.), I see it roughly:

PEAK
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux

Jagr
Espo, Orr, Howe
Hull, etc.

PRIME
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr
Howe, Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

CAREER
=====
Gretzky
Howe
Jagr
Lemieux, Hull
Espo

OVERALL
=====
Gretzky
Lemieux
Jagr, Howe
Espo
Hull, Orr

I would say 3rd or 4th all-time on offense seems a fair assessment, depending on how one values various factors and time frames.
Espo & Orr are particularly difficult to separate and evaluate.
You do realize that Howe won more Art Rosses than Jagr and did so by larger margins right? No credible list would have Jagr over Howe as an offensive player, in my opinion.

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02-05-2014, 12:52 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You do realize that Howe won more Art Rosses than Jagr and did so by larger margins right? No credible list would have Jagr over Howe as an offensive player, in my opinion.
I think it would be a mistake, though, to assume that what was behind Howe's production involved not only more "offensive acumen", but that there was also an observable (moseying over to the subjective, after a brief stop in stats land) edge in said offensive acumen in Howe over Jagr.

It's a tough call, though, because I certainly hold Gordie Howe above Jaromir Jagr "overall", and Gordie's legacy as "the greatest one to precede the greatest one" obviously has a lot to do with the scoring totals and awards he retired with.

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02-05-2014, 07:10 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You do realize that Howe won more Art Rosses than Jagr and did so by larger margins right? No credible list would have Jagr over Howe as an offensive player, in my opinion.
Of course you are entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine.

Howe played during the time of a much shallower talent pool, before the baby boom and the influx of non-NA players. I can certainly see why many would rank Howe over Jagr offensively, but I don't think one more Ross (or by larger margins, or even more top 5/10 finishes) settles the argument in and of itself... not by a long shot.

When Howe won 4 in a row, who were the best offensive players at that time? Richard and Lindsay? In terms of point production, I don't see those as nearly as difficult as Sakic, Forsberg, Selanne, Kariya, Lindros, Bure, etc. Remember, Jagr lost one Ross to Lemieux (although Jagr led NHL by 19 ES points that season), one to Thornton (in large part due to Thornton getting himself traded... to a team that had 2 more games remaining than his former team). It's certainly not as cut and dried as you make it seem IMO. Overall, I put them on the same line, which means it's very close. It depends a lot on how one values peak vs. prime vs. career, among other subjective factors.

I find the bolded statement to be just that... very bold... and condescending.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 02-05-2014 at 07:19 PM.
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02-05-2014, 07:17 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Of course you are entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine.

Howe played during the time of a much shallower talent pool, before the baby boom and the influx of non-NA players. I can certainly see why many would rank Howe over Jagr offensively, but I don't think one more Ross (or by larger margins, or even more top 5/10 finishes) settles the argument in and of itself... not by a long shot.

I find the bolded statement to be just that... very bold... and condescending.
I found the claim that the top 3 offensive peaks and primes of all-time all happened between 1980 and 2001 to be the bold one.

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02-05-2014, 07:24 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
When Howe won 4 in a row, who were the best offensive players at that time? Richard and Lindsay? In terms of point production, I don't see those as nearly as difficult as Sakic, Forsberg, Selanne, Kariya, Lindros, Bure, etc.
Even if those were the only competitors, there's still a pretty serious issue of quality over quantity. Maurice Richard is a little better than those guys.

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02-05-2014, 07:36 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
Is there a reason you choose to not have a gap between Gretzky and the rest for career and overall or did you just miss it?
Bit of an oversight, as that's more of a first draft than the last word on the matter.

Overall depends on how one values the various components, but Lemieux at his peak was very close to Gretzky (the main advantage for Gretzky seems to be ES production).

Career isn't quite the chasm that some of the other categories are:

- Howe (and Hull) had several WHA seasons, while Jagr has the missing lockout season and 3 seasons in the KHL
- Howe and Jagr had/have tremendous longevity

Gretzky isn't THAT far above Howe in GCARV, once you include those non-NHL seasons. Jagr is closer to Howe (and still gaining) than Hull is to Jagr (although roughly the same gap at this time).

My view, based on the numbers, but tempered with other info, is probably closer to this:


PEAK
=====
Gretzky, Lemieux

Jagr, Howe

Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

PRIME
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr, Howe

Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

CAREER
=====
Gretzky

Howe, Jagr

Lemieux, Hull
Espo

OVERALL
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr, Howe

Orr, Espo, Hull

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02-05-2014, 07:38 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I found the claim that the top 3 offensive peaks and primes of all-time all happened between 1980 and 2001 to be the bold one.
You have no trouble believing the first and second were during that time. It's the third, of course, which you do not wish to believe. Third is difficult to say, but Jagr & Howe are the clearest candidates IMO.


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02-05-2014, 07:41 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Even if those were the only competitors, there's still a pretty serious issue of quality over quantity. Maurice Richard is a little better than those guys.
In terms of peak regular season point production, the Rocket really wasn't THAT special IMO. At least behind Howe, Beliveau, Mikita & Hull, and that's just among post-WWII O6 players. Still great, but his legacy was built more on goal-scoring, clutch playoff goal-scoring, and to a lesser extent prime/career point production.

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02-05-2014, 07:43 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
You have no trouble believing the first and second were during that time. It's the third, of course, which you do not wish to believe.
Because the third was way behind the first and second.

I think there is a better case for Howe over Mario than there is for Jagr over Howe. Strictly offensively.

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02-05-2014, 07:45 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
You have no trouble believing the first and second were during that time. It's the third, of course, which you do not wish to believe.
Well, come on... there's an obvious gap between the second and the third. To me, that would be like putting Martin Brodeur as the third-best goaltender or Mark Messier as the third-best center when they are a noticeable distance from their two contemporaries. They're's up in the range, sure, but it's a bit insulting to the rest of history to say that not only is there a gap between 1/2 and 3 in the era, but that their 3 is better than everyone else's 1.

It's not like Gordie Howe doesn't have better accolades than Jaromir Jagr...

I just don't know how you would approach the argument to put three players of one era that high when there is an obvious gap in the era without it kinda insulting the rest of hockey history. There were some good scorers in the first two-thirds of hockey history.

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02-05-2014, 07:48 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
In terms of peak regular season point production, the Rocket really wasn't that special IMO. Still great, but his legacy was built more on goal-scoring, clutch playoff goal-scoring, and to a lesser extent prime/career point production.
Is that not a super-sized version of Joe Sakic, Jaromir Jagr's best contemporary?

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02-05-2014, 07:53 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Well, come on... there's an obvious gap between the second and the third. To me, that would be like putting Martin Brodeur as the third-best goaltender or Mark Messier as the third-best center when they are a noticeable distance from their two contemporaries. They're's up in the range, sure, but it's a bit insulting to the rest of history to say that not only is there a gap between 1/2 and 3 in the era, but that their 3 is better than everyone else's 1.

It's not like Gordie Howe doesn't have better accolades than Jaromir Jagr...

I just don't know how you would approach the argument to put three players of one era that high when there is an obvious gap in the era without it kinda insulting the rest of hockey history. There were some good scorers in the first two-thirds of hockey history.
I did those rankings rather hastily. It's certainly difficult to compare all the offensive greats of the past 70 years, over multiple time frames (peak, prime, career... the first two of which are not easily defined).

I'm not trying to slight the rest of hockey history. I think it's probably between Howe & Jagr for third, but I also think those two have some argument vs. Lemieux, primarily on a career basis (talking purely offense... overall, even prime becomes an argument IMO).

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02-05-2014, 08:07 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Is that not a super-sized version of Joe Sakic, Jaromir Jagr's best contemporary?
I believe Sakic was a substantially better point producer than the Rocket. Besides the 6 already mentioned (Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Howe, Orr, Espo):

- the only other player that I see probably having a significant edge on Sakic in terms of peak (best 3-5 seasons) point production is Lafleur... although Crosby could very possibly have a significant edge soon as well.

- as we get more into prime (best 8-10 seasons), players like Orr and Lafleur drop into the range of Sakic (and that of many others as well)

- Sakic is very strong on a career basis, with his adjusted PARV (at 0.5 or 0.6 AdjPPG RV) 5th, just ahead of Espo... and his GCARV just behind Espo.

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02-05-2014, 08:12 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I believe Sakic was a substantially better point producer than the Rocket. Besides the 6 already mentioned (Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Howe, Orr, Espo):

- the only other player that I see possibly having a significant edge on Sakic in terms of peak (best 3-5 seasons) is Lafleur... although Crosby could very possibly have a significant edge soon as well.

- as we get more into prime (best 8-10 seasons), players like Orr and Lafleur drop into the range of Sakic (and many others as well)

- Sakic is very strong on a career basis, with his adjusted PARV (at 0.5 or 0.6 AdjPPG RV) 5th, just ahead of Espo.
I'm a bigger fan of Sakic's accomplishments on this board than most, but... just no. I don't believe that the 2nd place scorer in the 1950s was worse than the 5th place scorer in the 1990s, which is basically what you are saying.

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02-05-2014, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I'm a bigger fan of Sakic's accomplishments on this board than most, but... just no. I don't believe that the 2nd place scorer in the 1950s was worse than the 5th place scorer in the 1990s, which is basically what you are saying.
That's fine, but I disagree.

For instance, Jagr's first top 10 in points was in '94... his last in '07.

During that time, Sakic was 2nd in points (to Jagr) and his PPG was 4th (2nd among Canadians... to Lemieux who played < 40% as many games during that time).

In terms of regular season point production, Sakic > Richard.

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02-06-2014, 12:01 AM
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i find it very hard not to have jagr even or ahead of orr. sure, orr only had two art rosses, but with all due respect to your namesake esposito, i give orr partial credit for at least five and maybe all six of espo's art rosses. even looking just at offense, orr was a next-level genius that i think was above jagr, or espo, or hull. to think that nobody sniffed orr's assist record until gretzky in '81 is amazing, and it's amazing even without accounting for the fact that orr was a defenseman. up to gretzky's rookie season, orr has four of the five highest single-season assist totals ever and contributed to five of the top six single-season goals totals ever.
No doubt Orr is right there, and if someone put him ahead of Jagr that's fine. I am just saying that out of the big 4 if there is one player he could compare more to offensively it would be Orr first. His responsibilities as a defenseman hurt how many more points he could have scored.

But not to get off topic, but I think Esposito was winning pretty much every one of his Art Rosses without Orr either way. He was just so far ahead of the rest of the NHL pack offensively that he would still probably have 5 Art Ross' to his name.

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02-06-2014, 03:27 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
That's fine, but I disagree.

For instance, Jagr's first top 10 in points was in '94... his last in '07.

During that time, Sakic was 2nd in points (to Jagr)and his PPG was 4th (2nd among Canadians... to Lemieux who played < 40% as many games during that time).

In terms of regular season point production, Sakic > Richard.
You mean tied with post-prime Gretzky for 4th (2nd among Canadians), barely ahead of Lindros in PPG.

As for "total points over x span," it's just useless statistical smoke considering Jagr and Sakic were about the only star players whose careers perfectly overlapped with that time frame.

Maurice Richard? 1st in points from 1945 (his first top 10 finish) to 1957 (his last top 10 finish). Tied for 4th in PPG, but a close 2nd to Gordie Howe in PPG among anyone who played more than 36% as many games as him: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points


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