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Quietly, the offense has been pretty good lately

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Old
02-07-2014, 04:52 PM
  #1
drwpreds
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Quietly, the offense has been pretty good lately

Just looking at some of our team stats, it jumped out to me that our much maligned offense (and rightly so) has quietly actually been pretty good for most of this season.

After a horrendous start, the offense has actually been pretty decent- some numbers

First 19 games- 2.05 g/g- (next to last in the league)
Last 39 games- 2.67 g/g- (would rank around the middle of the league)

Last 10 games- 3.00 g/g
Last 20 games- 2.85 g/g (would rank in top 10)
Last 30 games- 2.67 g/g

Also, we were shutout a whopping 6 times in the first 26 games, but have only been shutout 1 time in the last 32.

And, in the last 20 games we have scored 3 or more goals 14 times.

And while it is true that overall we still rank 22nd in goals scored per game, we are only a few goals scored away from being in the top half of the league. (And are actually ahead of teams like Montreal, Vancouver, and Minnesota, all of which have far more skill at forward)

Pretty interesting- and we are doing this despite having one of the worst performing groups of forwards in the entire league. It is obvious that our defensemen play a huge part in our offense. But bottom line is the goals count the same regardless of who is scoring them.

To me, the inconsistent goaltending and below average defense have been our biggest problems- it seems to have flown under the radar, but we are allowing almost 3 goals per game, and have ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in that category all season

Bottom line is offense really hasn’t been our biggest problem for most of this season. I would argue that if we had not lost Pekka, and had gotten our usual level of defense, we would be solidly in the playoffs, no question about it.

I really believe we are not that far away from being a contender- I think the offense will be better next year (especially if we can add a skilled forward) and the defense and goaltending should be MUCH better going forward.

Anyway, just some food for thought- don’t misunderstand the post, not saying we don’t have issues scoring goals- we do- just that the offense has been a lot better lately………….

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02-07-2014, 05:22 PM
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Enoch
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Our defense has not been below average. Our goaltending has been horrendous and our offense has been weak at even strength. Our defensemen are carrying this team.

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02-07-2014, 05:28 PM
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Shhhh ... using fact, ten game segments, and actual data doesn't have a place in HF discussion.

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02-07-2014, 07:08 PM
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this is no indication of forwards improving their play. Craig Smith and defenseman are carrying this team. i just point to the shootout where the 3 shooters were defenseman. our forwards imo are worst in the league, bottom three. good to see the goals per game trending up a bit though

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02-07-2014, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
Shhhh ... using fact, ten game segments, and actual data doesn't have a place in HF discussion.
Anything less than 30 is too small a sample size

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02-07-2014, 09:11 PM
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drwpreds
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
this is no indication of forwards improving their play. Craig Smith and defenseman are carrying this team. i just point to the shootout where the 3 shooters were defenseman. our forwards imo are worst in the league, bottom three. good to see the goals per game trending up a bit though
Where in the OP did it say anything about forwards improving their play?? Specifically stated that "we have one of the worst performing group of forwards in the league"


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02-07-2014, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Enoch View Post
Our defense has not been below average. Our goaltending has been horrendous and our offense has been weak at even strength. Our defensemen are carrying this team.
You really think our team defense has been good this year?? The fact that we are near the bottom of the league in GA/G is solely because of the goaltending??

No argument that the goaltending has been bad at times, but our team defense has also left the goaltenders out to dry time and time again.

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02-07-2014, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
Shhhh ... using fact, ten game segments, and actual data doesn't have a place in HF discussion.
Yep- I debated whether to even bother posting this- probably shouldn't have- heaven forbid we have some good rational discussion on here...

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02-07-2014, 11:07 PM
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Great post and points DRW. All that is great but we are still in the bottom of are division, conference, and if play stopped tomorrow the Preds would not be in the playoffs.

Good thing the defense is creating goals and Smith is having a breakout year. If not for that my gosh we would be awful.

Maybe some changes will come soon and the forwards and centers will have more influence in the offense being good lately.

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02-08-2014, 02:57 AM
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NoNecksCurse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
Where in the OP did it say anything about forwards improving their play?? Specifically stated that "we have one of the worst performing group of forwards in the league"
Im agreeing with your OP and stating my opinion as to why. as said, it's good to see the goals tick up a bit

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02-08-2014, 11:12 AM
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BigFatCat999
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Wow, who knew trading a d-defenseman for an o-defenseman would help the team O. *runs like hell from the Klein fans*

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02-08-2014, 01:06 PM
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Joe T Choker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
Just looking at some of our team stats, it jumped out to me that our much maligned offense (and rightly so) has quietly actually been pretty good for most of this season.

After a horrendous start, the offense has actually been pretty decent- some numbers

First 19 games- 2.05 g/g- (next to last in the league)
Last 39 games- 2.67 g/g- (would rank around the middle of the league)

Last 10 games- 3.00 g/g
Last 20 games- 2.85 g/g (would rank in top 10)
Last 30 games- 2.67 g/g

Also, we were shutout a whopping 6 times in the first 26 games, but have only been shutout 1 time in the last 32.

And, in the last 20 games we have scored 3 or more goals 14 times.

And while it is true that overall we still rank 22nd in goals scored per game, we are only a few goals scored away from being in the top half of the league. (And are actually ahead of teams like Montreal, Vancouver, and Minnesota, all of which have far more skill at forward)

Pretty interesting- and we are doing this despite having one of the worst performing groups of forwards in the entire league. It is obvious that our defensemen play a huge part in our offense. But bottom line is the goals count the same regardless of who is scoring them.

To me, the inconsistent goaltending and below average defense have been our biggest problems- it seems to have flown under the radar, but we are allowing almost 3 goals per game, and have ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in that category all season

Bottom line is offense really hasn’t been our biggest problem for most of this season. I would argue that if we had not lost Pekka, and had gotten our usual level of defense, we would be solidly in the playoffs, no question about it.

I really believe we are not that far away from being a contender- I think the offense will be better next year (especially if we can add a skilled forward) and the defense and goaltending should be MUCH better going forward.

Anyway, just some food for thought- don’t misunderstand the post, not saying we don’t have issues scoring goals- we do- just that the offense has been a lot better lately………….
Last 10 teams we've played:
Nashville (4) - PHI (3) SO
COL (they good) (5) - Nashville (4)
DAL (1) (not a playoff team) - Nashville (4)
Nashville (2) - VAN (1 pt behind Phoenix) (1)
Nashville (4) - CGY (lottery team ... ooof) (5) SO
Nashville (1) - EDM (lottery team ... ooof) (5)
Nashville (4) - WPG (not in playoff spot) (3)
NJD (2) - Nashville (3)
Nashville (3) - STL (in playoff spot) (4) SO
Nashville 2 - MIN (in playoff spot) 3 OT

Previous 10 games:
LAK (2) - NSH (3)
DET (4) - NSH (6)
NSH (2) - BOS (3) OT
NSH (4) - FLA (5) SO (we suck in shootouts)
NSH (1) - CAR (2)
SJS (2) - NSH (3) (good win)
ANA (4) - NSH (3)
OTT (2) - NSH (1) SO (... ooof)
MIN (4) - NSH (0)
CGY (2) - NSH (4)

Previous 10 games:
CAR (5) - NSH (2) (ooof)
NSH (2) - WSH (5) (ooof)
NSH (4) - NYR (1)
DAL (1) - NSH (3)
SJS (2) - NSH (3)
CHI (3) - NSH (1) (expected)
NSH (2) - TBL (4) (they are good)
MTL (4) - NSH (3) OT (as are they)
BOS (6) - NSH (2) (beaten to a pulp)
NSH (1) - DAL (4) (hangover)

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Old
02-08-2014, 07:40 PM
  #13
101st_fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
Yep- I debated whether to even bother posting this- probably shouldn't have- heaven forbid we have some good rational discussion on here...
The team's play started to turn just before New Year's .. .19-20 games ago when we played the Kings and Wings. Points in 15 of those 20 games, winning nine. The absolute dependence on PP goals waned (no more than two ES goals in any of the seven games preceding the latest 20 game stretch ... that happening only once) and we started scoring at even strength. A top ten PP conversion rate is wonderful, but the comparatively low number of chances the Preds generate makes it impossible to win consistently without generating offense 5on5.

We're still too dependent on goals from the blueline. Smith and, in the games immediately prior to his injury, Spaling were the only forwards getting much done offensively. We'd get a goal from Fisher ... then he'd vanish off the score sheet for days. Same with Legwand and Hornqvist. Luckily Weber finally started scoring at ES in January while maintaining his PP scoring pace. Josi with 10 ES points in January alone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Wow, who knew trading a d-defenseman for an o-defenseman would help the team O. *runs like hell from the Klein fans*
Giving any credit to MDZ is premature. The statistical swing began long before the trade.

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Old
02-09-2014, 12:00 AM
  #14
klt2001
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Except for maybe the Craig line, I don't think we have had a consistent line all year on ES. Might be time to switch up the lines and see if that helps.

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02-09-2014, 12:02 AM
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klt2001
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Although our offense is doing better than our defense and goaltending (except goaltending has really improved as of late), our offense is still weak and needs alot of work as it depends too much on the defensemen to create offense and it struggles on ES or creating offense on its own. We need our lines to be playing better. So far we don't have a threat line that can dominate a game. Wish we could get Erat back at least he was good at moving, bringing, and passing the puck. We need a line that can actually bring the puck in as a line and not get broken up every time they cross the blueline or has to rely on the dump and chase method to keep the puck in. Our lines are weak and either need to be broken up or get better players. Fisher needs to be on a line that can feed him the puck as his strength is in shooting the puck not necessarily in moving or passing/feeding the puck or bringing the puck in. Hornqvist isn't a good passer/player maker kind of guy either. He is great at being in front of the net though creating havoc and so imo should be more on the second or third line. Legwand is more of a passer or mover of the puck but can score some too. Imo he should be on the first line w/ Fisher and so could feed the puck to Fisher or have Stalberg w/ Fisher as Stalberg has the speed to move the puck but isn't really a finisher though and so could just maybe feed the puck to Mike instead. Craig smith is good at moving the puck and also lately at scoring so he could be w/ anybody at this point imo. Colin Wilson is more of a moving of the puck/passer than a scorer/finisher. What I'm trying to say I don't think we are using the players we already have the way we should to help maximize their strengths and minimize their weakness by pairing them up w/ the right teammate. Right now we don't really have any threat line on this team. We either need to switch up the lines and pair them up w/ the right teammate that will help the line be more of a consistent scoring line/threat or just get better players.


Last edited by klt2001: 03-05-2014 at 12:19 AM.
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Old
02-10-2014, 09:16 AM
  #16
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Originally Posted by klt2001 View Post
What I'm trying to say I don't think we are using the players we already have the way we should to help maximize their strengths and minimize their weakness by pairing them up w/ the right teammate. Right now we don't have really any threat line on this team. We either need to switch up the lines and pair them up w/ the right teammate that will help the line be more of a consistent scoring line/threat or just get better players.
THIS! This has been an issue of Trotz's for a long while. His Defense Defense Defense D&C system is not conducive for Offensive minded players! The line combos are very eratic at times and makes you scratch your head. Putting VS on the 4th line makes no sense at all!

I do believe the Blue line pairings are in good shape. They just need a little time playing together. If they stay together, I think we could have one of the most solid Defensive pairings in the league.

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