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Playoff Chance Calculator

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Old
02-09-2014, 03:44 PM
  #1
Steve Shutt
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Playoff Chance Calculator

This is great for seeing how Montreal's playoff chances change after every game:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...ePlayoffs.html

Can also see that we have about a 91% chance of being in the playoffs right now. I'm liking those stats.

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02-09-2014, 03:54 PM
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BLONG7
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23 games left, alot can happen, a 4-5 game losing streak like we had in January, and it would be scary...but you would think we would play .500 from here on in....and end up around 93-96 pts...
There are alot of teams in the hunt, 12 teams looking at 8 spots...

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02-09-2014, 05:18 PM
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RealityBytes
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I am kind of curious on how that was calculated and what criteria they are using.

If you consider there are nine teams within nine points of the Habs, it brings the total to 13 teams with a decent shot to make the top eight with five of them being knocked out. As well, if teams like Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, have the same or better points as the Habs, it follows they would also be at that 91% level or higher and be in the playoffs as well. That would leave three spots open for: New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, Columbus, Ottawa, Washington, Carolina, and New Jersey with five of them knocked out.

After looking up on their site, it shows: Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay, Montreal, New York, Toronto, Columbus , and Philly to make it with Detroit, Ottawa, Washington, Carolina, and New Jersey out. It also shows Carolina dropping 9% by losing one game, and Montreal at 73% just two games prior, and Tampa Bay would be happy because they show at 99.17%.

A small hot or cold streak blows these numbers apart and makes radical changes in a teams %ages and the designer admits it makes mistakes and has limitations.

Give him an E for effort but to get a better set of these, check the odds on a professional Vegas odds sports site.


Last edited by RealityBytes: 02-09-2014 at 06:27 PM.
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02-09-2014, 05:21 PM
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Mathletic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ditchweed View Post
I am kind of curious on how that was calculated. If you consider there are nine teams within nine points of the Habs, it brings the total to 13 teams with a decent shot to make the top eight with five of them being knocked out.

As well, if teams like Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, have the same or better points as the Habs, it follows they would also be at that 91% level or higher and be in the playoffs as well.

That would leave three spots open for: New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, Columbus, Ottawa, Washington, Carolina, and New Jersey with five of them knocked out.

So how does this calculator work or project for teams like them? If more than three of those teams would show up at a 50% or higher chance to make the playoffs, then the projections of that calculator would seem to be errant by projecting more than eight teams to make the playoffs.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html

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02-09-2014, 05:43 PM
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RealityBytes
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
Yeah, thanks, but I already looked it up and updated my post.

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02-09-2014, 05:53 PM
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Brainiac
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Of course, at this point the numbers can still vary after a good/bad streak.

However, it's clear to me that if the Habs play the remainder of the season at or slightly above 0.500, they're in.

One thing that sportsclubstats is good at is to confirm with 95% certainty that your team will be in the playoffs, making it an unlikely event (statistically speaking) to miss.

95% chance of making the playoffs with 15-20 games left is basically a done deal. Habs are not there yet, but close.

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02-09-2014, 07:15 PM
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Harpo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
Of course, at this point the numbers can still vary after a good/bad streak.

However, it's clear to me that if the Habs play the remainder of the season at or slightly above 0.500, they're in.

One thing that sportsclubstats is good at is to confirm with 95% certainty that your team will be in the playoffs, making it an unlikely event (statistically speaking) to miss.

95% chance of making the playoffs with 15-20 games left is basically a done deal. Habs are not there yet, but close.
I like this site, but before the slump, the Habs were at 99%+. So 95% is still far away from a done deal. A 5 game slump and they could be in the 75% range.

But yeah, if they play .500 for the rest of the season, they'll make it. 93 points has been the usual amount of points required in the East to finish 6-8th.

Season: 8th (9th)

2003-2004: 91 (85)
2005-2006: 92 (90)
2006-2007: 92 (91)
2007-2008: 94 (92)
2008-2009: 93 (93)
2009:2010: 88 (87)
2010-2011: 93 (91)
2011-2012: 92 (89)
2012-20013: -PRORATED - 94 (87)


Last edited by Harpo: 02-09-2014 at 07:23 PM.
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