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2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part III* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 4/8)

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02-10-2014, 09:33 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
In my opinion he's for real. He won't be a superstar or anything but he'll be a very solid offensive contributor at the NHL level if he makes it.

As usual, every offensive prospect the Rangers had that have made noise in recent years (Grachev, Thomas, MSC, Dawes, etc.) had some bad flaw in their game that really hurt their NHL chances. Duclair lacks on those chance-hurting attributes. Thomas' size is not good, and he didn't have the skating to make up for it. Grachev's skating was awful. MSC can't skate either, and is small + soft. Dawes is small and again a bad skater.

Duclair's got a very solid skillset that can translate well. Of course, if he doesn't, he can make it as a 3rd line energy player with his puck retrieval skills and speed. Guys like Thomas are top-6 or bust.

It's ultimately up to you if you buy the hype.
Should I believe that it would be worth a top 12 pick on this guy?

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02-10-2014, 10:25 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
In my opinion he's for real. He won't be a superstar or anything but he'll be a very solid offensive contributor at the NHL level if he makes it.

As usual, every offensive prospect the Rangers had that have made noise in recent years (Grachev, Thomas, MSC, Dawes, etc.) had some bad flaw in their game that really hurt their NHL chances. Duclair lacks on those chance-hurting attributes. Thomas' size is not good, and he didn't have the skating to make up for it. Grachev's skating was awful. MSC can't skate either, and is small + soft. Dawes is small and again a bad skater.

Duclair's got a very solid skillset that can translate well. Of course, if he doesn't, he can make it as a 3rd line energy player with his puck retrieval skills and speed. Guys like Thomas are top-6 or bust.

It's ultimately up to you if you buy the hype.
so Duclair even not a top line player can be another Hagelin?? is he a good skater as Hagelin? how is he defensively?? the potential is their..

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02-10-2014, 10:36 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
In my opinion he's for real. He won't be a superstar or anything but he'll be a very solid offensive contributor at the NHL level if he makes it.

As usual, every offensive prospect the Rangers had that have made noise in recent years (Grachev, Thomas, MSC, Dawes, etc.) had some bad flaw in their game that really hurt their NHL chances. Duclair lacks on those chance-hurting attributes. Thomas' size is not good, and he didn't have the skating to make up for it. Grachev's skating was awful. MSC can't skate either, and is small + soft. Dawes is small and again a bad skater.

Duclair's got a very solid skillset that can translate well. Of course, if he doesn't, he can make it as a 3rd line energy player with his puck retrieval skills and speed. Guys like Thomas are top-6 or bust.

It's ultimately up to you if you buy the hype.
Not to take us too far OT, but I've heard this a couple of times now and it baffles me. Where the heck does this myth come from?

Grachev's skating was excellent, just a step below Kreider. There were entire posts written during prospect camp of coaches and advisors gathering around the glass and saying "who is THAT kid?" Obviously that's a small sample size and in a controlled environment, but leave that aside - I watched him a LOT in his post draft year. He could skate, and he could ESPECIALLY skate for a guy that big. That's part of why we were all so excited for him.

Where he supposedly lacked was between the ears, an "all tools, no toolbox" kind of situation. There were many who thought that he left juniors too early. I personally believe that Gernander's coaching played a role.

Regardless, skating was the LEAST of his issues.

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02-10-2014, 10:36 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
Is the hype on Duke real? I know literally nothing about him. Won't pretend I do. I just know players in our past have looked like stars in the minors, lighting teams up, and nothing came of them.

The problem with most hype is that people don't understand just how far behind the juniors are from the NHL. People think of the ECHL as a crap league and the juniors as a quality league, but almost every player who moves from the juniors to the ECHL (including our own St. Croix and Nicholls this year) finds it more difficult in the ECHL and doesn't score as much there.

Meanwhile, the AHL is at least two steps ahead of the juniors.

So people see someone get a little over a point per game in juniors and they get all excited. But the problem is that if you got only a point per game (or a little more) in your post-draft year, your offensive skills are nothing that will light the NHL on fire... unless you improve them significantly. Even 100 points happens often enough that statistically most of the 100 point junior players will not be able to translate their games to top-6 NHL careers.

The Duke is different in the sense that he's been averaging over 2 points per game for almost 2.5 months. Now *that* is something radically different if he can keep up the pace. There are many players who can score 40 goals in juniors. There's a decent number who can score 50, particularly in their last year of eligibility. There are very, very few who can score 60 goals as 18 year olds.

While you may hear the same hype about a 50g-50a player that you'll hear about a 60g+60a player, in reality the difference is huge. So many of the 50g-50a junior players come close to being top-6, but don't make it by a hair. Give them a bit more offensive ability and suddenly they are stars.

Compare The Duke to Dawes. Nigel had 92 points in 72 games or 1.28 per game. The Duke has the same 92 points, but in 53 games. That's 1.74 points per game. Dawes would need to score 36% more points per game to catch up with The Duke. I believe that if he had this additional offensive skill plus Duke's extra 2 inches of height, he'd have been a top-6 NHLer.

P.S. This is a good stat to remember when people compare Dawes to Duke: the latter is scoring 36% more per game, in addition to two extra inches of height.


Last edited by Beacon: 02-10-2014 at 10:41 PM.
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02-10-2014, 11:36 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
In my opinion he's for real. He won't be a superstar or anything

I am not prepared to make either of these statements. I want him to continue this pace for the rest of the season and then play this well next year before I can declare him for real. At the same, I won't declare that he won't be a superstar because he can certainly become one.

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02-10-2014, 11:44 PM
  #156
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Let's see how Duc does in the playoffs and if he takes his game up another notch.

Honestly, out of all of the Rangers, Wolfpack, and prospects, he should be playing the longest.

Also, he's going to have a much larger role in Traverse this year. He only got second line time in the final game last year.

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02-10-2014, 11:55 PM
  #157
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I am not prepared to make either of these statements. I want him to continue this pace for the rest of the season and then play this well next year before I can declare him for real. At the same, I won't declare that he won't be a superstar because he can certainly become one.
Yeah it's amazing that someone can make either of those statements about an 18 year old kid. Way too much certainty about prospects going on in these boards sometimes.

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02-11-2014, 06:18 AM
  #158
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Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
Yeah it's amazing that someone can make either of those statements about an 18 year old kid. Way too much certainty about prospects going on in these boards sometimes.
That's me tempering my expectations. I don't expect him to be an 80+ point player.

I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he is.

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02-11-2014, 06:20 AM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Punxrocknyc19 View Post
so Duclair even not a top line player can be another Hagelin?? is he a good skater as Hagelin? how is he defensively?? the potential is their..
His skating is a notch below Hagelins, who's one of the best skaters in the league.

He's got a really good acceleration, and is very slippery and agile. Though sometimes he can caught flatfooted.

Defensively he's above average, at the Q level. He's willing to block shots, backcheck, take the puck away, he played the PK this year. I don't think he'd be as good as Hagelin there, but he can be very solid.

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02-11-2014, 06:23 AM
  #160
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
Should I believe that it would be worth a top 12 pick on this guy?
That, yes. He was drafted insanely low in 2013.

With the season he's having he'd go top 10 this year.

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02-11-2014, 08:16 AM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
That, yes. He was drafted insanely low in 2013.

With the season he's having he'd go top 10 this year.
Ehh, I think he'd be more in the 10-15 range, with an outside shot at cracking the top ten. The skill is undeniable, but his size would probably knock him down a few pegs. Not that it should, but it probably would. Guys like Ritchie, DalColle, Perlini and even Virtanen would probably be in higher demand because of their combination of skill and size. It's splitting hairs though. He's a mid-to-high first round pick if he were in this draft.

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02-11-2014, 08:24 AM
  #162
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Ehh, I think he'd be more in the 10-15 range, with an outside shot at cracking the top ten. The skill is undeniable, but his size would probably knock him down a few pegs. Not that it should, but it probably would. Guys like Ritchie, DalColle, Perlini and even Virtanen would probably be in higher demand because of their combination of skill and size. It's splitting hairs though. He's a mid-to-high first round pick if he were in this draft.
With the quality crop of centers, he might just miss the top 10.

I would draft him over Virtanen though.

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02-11-2014, 08:38 AM
  #163
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With the quality crop of centers, he might just miss the top 10.

I would draft him over Virtanen though.
So would I. At 6'1" and 210, though, you know NHL teams that place such an emphasis on size would probably be all over him, rather than Duclair who is listed by his team at 5'11" and 184. It's just one of those things. Teams fall in love with size.

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02-11-2014, 08:47 AM
  #164
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So would I. At 6'1" and 210, though, you know NHL teams that place such an emphasis on size would probably be all over him, rather than Duclair who is listed by his team at 5'11" and 184. It's just one of those things. Teams fall in love with size.
Where have you read that?

The reports I've read have Virtanen at 5' 11", 180.

Edit: Ah, Virtanen is listed as that on the WHL website, duh.

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02-11-2014, 09:22 AM
  #165
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
That's me tempering my expectations. I don't expect him to be an 80+ point player.

I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he is.
Right now ,the NHL is only seeing 8-15 guys a season hitting that mark, I'd be very surprised as well.

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02-11-2014, 09:46 AM
  #166
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The quality of defensemen that come out of the Q year in and year out lags behind the other CHL leagues. Duclair is a fast and shifty guy--he's probably giving a lot of these kids he's facing fits. He's having a great season but I'd be surprised if he made a run at an NHL job next fall which means he'll be back in the Q most probably again next year and he'll need to at least keep up the same level of production. He looks like he'll have a great shot to make the NHL within 2-3-4 years but Hagelin is probably the closest comparison on the Rangers right now. His high shooting % is going to take a plunge once he hits the pros. He'll be facing bigger, faster, smarter and more experienced defensemen and better goalies. To me his upside is probably not as a first liner--maybe/maybe not a top 6.

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02-11-2014, 09:49 AM
  #167
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The quality of defensemen that come out of the Q year in and year out lags behind the other CHL leagues. Duclair is a fast and shifty guy--he's probably giving a lot of these kids he's facing fits. He's having a great season but I'd be surprised if he made a run at an NHL job next fall which means he'll be back in the Q most probably again next year and he'll need to at least keep up the same level of production. He looks like he'll have a great shot to make the NHL within 2-3-4 years but Hagelin is probably the closest comparison on the Rangers right now. His high shooting % is going to take a plunge once he hits the pros. He'll be facing bigger, faster, smarter and more experienced defensemen and better goalies. To me his upside is probably not as a first liner--maybe/maybe not a top 6.
Based on what I have heard, my baseline expectations for him would be a grittier Hagelin with less defensive acumen. Expecting much more from anything but a blue-chip is usually setting yourself up for disappointment.

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02-11-2014, 10:05 AM
  #168
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Based on what I have heard, my baseline expectations for him would be a grittier Hagelin with less defensive acumen. Expecting much more from anything but a blue-chip is usually setting yourself up for disappointment.
I'm thinking more or less the same. Kind of looks to me that Duclair will be a little more stockier/heavier and stronger but Hagelin's got a really good defensive game. Duclair would need some time and work to get to that.

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02-11-2014, 10:20 AM
  #169
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Originally Posted by eco's bones View Post
The quality of defensemen that come out of the Q year in and year out lags behind the other CHL leagues. Duclair is a fast and shifty guy--he's probably giving a lot of these kids he's facing fits. He's having a great season but I'd be surprised if he made a run at an NHL job next fall which means he'll be back in the Q most probably again next year and he'll need to at least keep up the same level of production. He looks like he'll have a great shot to make the NHL within 2-3-4 years but Hagelin is probably the closest comparison on the Rangers right now. His high shooting % is going to take a plunge once he hits the pros. He'll be facing bigger, faster, smarter and more experienced defensemen and better goalies. To me his upside is probably not as a first liner--maybe/maybe not a top 6.
It's been mentioned only 800 times but the OHL is a higher scoring league than the Q. The Q isn't the defensive nightmare it used to be. Not even close. It's a legitimate development league, one of the tops in NA, and definitely better than the OHL.

His high shooting% is a product of him taking mostly high percentage shots. He's not a shot chucker, he gets in really close for his shots. It's been mentioned that he doesn't take slapshots or shots from the outside, well that's partially why. He always goes for the high percentage play. A lot of his goals are scored by him driving the net, or being really close to the net for the one timer or quick shot. His high percentage isn't relevant to his potential. It's not as if he's the luckiest player in the Q, he drives the net to make his own luck.

I hate the Hagelin comparison. Other than they're fast and are good with puck control, they're nothing alike.

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02-11-2014, 10:21 AM
  #170
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Based on what I have heard, my baseline expectations for him would be a grittier Hagelin with less defensive acumen. Expecting much more from anything but a blue-chip is usually setting yourself up for disappointment.
If he keeps up his play next year, he's a blue chip prospect, in my opinion.

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02-11-2014, 10:29 AM
  #171
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I hope to see the prospects tournament this fall, time has not allowed me of late to watch even enough NCAA games.

I can say I loved Buch's energy at the WJC's. I'm less skeptical of decent performance in a pro league than I am of the Canadian Juniors.

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02-11-2014, 10:33 AM
  #172
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To me his upside is probably not as a first liner--maybe/maybe not a top 6.
What is this based on except the fear of going out on the limb?

The Duke is one of the best scorers outside of the NHL right now. He's leading the QMJHL in goals and is second in all of juniors after Dane Fox, an overager who's 2 full years older. (Overagers always have inflated stats.)

The Duke is the highest scoring teenager in all of juniors, so why the certainty that his upside is not that of a first liner? This isn't the same as having an overhyped prospect who scored 40 goals in a full season, just as 25-30 other junior players have that year.


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Based on what I have heard, my baseline expectations for him would be a grittier Hagelin with less defensive acumen. Expecting much more from anything but a blue-chip is usually setting yourself up for disappointment.
There's a difference between expecting him to be a star and saying that it can't be precluded. He certainly has star potential. This board goes way too much by the draft hype: a #10 pick must be a star (even though only 1 of the ten guys drafted at #10 picks before McIlrath was even a second liner and a bunch were minor league busts), but a third rounder must have very limited potential with a ceiling no higher than a marginal second liner.

There are stars that come out of the later rounds (Richards, Savard, Lundqvist) and at the same time, most of the players in the top-10 are not going to be difference-makers.

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02-11-2014, 10:39 AM
  #173
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Originally Posted by eco's bones View Post
The quality of defensemen that come out of the Q year in and year out lags behind the other CHL leagues. Duclair is a fast and shifty guy--he's probably giving a lot of these kids he's facing fits. He's having a great season but I'd be surprised if he made a run at an NHL job next fall which means he'll be back in the Q most probably again next year and he'll need to at least keep up the same level of production. He looks like he'll have a great shot to make the NHL within 2-3-4 years but Hagelin is probably the closest comparison on the Rangers right now. His high shooting % is going to take a plunge once he hits the pros. He'll be facing bigger, faster, smarter and more experienced defensemen and better goalies. To me his upside is probably not as a first liner--maybe/maybe not a top 6.
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Based on what I have heard, my baseline expectations for him would be a grittier Hagelin with less defensive acumen. Expecting much more from anything but a blue-chip is usually setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Originally Posted by eco's bones View Post
I'm thinking more or less the same. Kind of looks to me that Duclair will be a little more stockier/heavier and stronger but Hagelin's got a really good defensive game. Duclair would need some time and work to get to that.
I think you guys are all engaging in actively tempering your expectations. (Which I can certainly understand.) The kind of production that Duclair is showing at his age is very impressive. I think many of us agree that had he been born a month later, he's someone that would currently be in the discussion for the 5th-15th pick in this year's draft. That's pretty heady company, and were the Rangers to be the team to draft him there, none of us would be particularly pleased with pegging him as a Hagelin-level player.

By no means am I saying he's a guaranteed superstar (Grachev was my last foray into that territory ), but top-6 scorers do need to come from somewhere - and generally these are the numbers they put up in juniors. (Furthermore, in Duclair's case it's particularly encouraging that he's doing it at "only" 5'11" and 184 and isn't a behemoth like Mantha that has an enormous size and weight advantage over his competition.) He certainly has more pure offensive skill than Hagelin. Once again, I'm not predicting superstardom, but we've seen enough that I think we can allow ourselves to aim as high as legitimate top-6 winger based on his pre-draft pedigree and this post-draft performance. If he then develops into a solid third line winger with slightly less speed and a little more grit than Hagelin, obviously it's still a huge win based on where he was drafted. But at this point I'd be somewhat disappointed.

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02-11-2014, 10:42 AM
  #174
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People are overly cautious because they're terrified of saying that someone has 1st line potential and look silly if they don't make it.

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02-11-2014, 10:48 AM
  #175
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I'm thinking more or less the same. Kind of looks to me that Duclair will be a little more stockier/heavier and stronger but Hagelin's got a really good defensive game. Duclair would need some time and work to get to that.

I don't think The Duke is anything like Hagelin, who's a defense-first player that is able to create some offensive opportunities using his speed, but isn't a particularly creative or dynamic offensive player.

The Duke is an offense-first player who is willing to do just enough on defense that he's not a liability. His main value stems not from his defense or even his speed, but from his ability to put the puck in the net.

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