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2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part III* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 4/8)

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Old
02-11-2014, 10:50 AM
  #176
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Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
People are overly cautious because they're terrified of saying that someone has 1st line potential and look silly if they don't make it.
I just don't trust the juniors. I have no reservations saying that Greg Carey or Buchnevich have top 6 potential. True 1st line players are rare and usually known to be quality ahead of the draft. There are exceptions, but they are few and far between. We've been fortunate with some very good 2nd line players that we drafted in the 2nd round onwards.

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02-11-2014, 10:56 AM
  #177
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I just don't trust the juniors. I have no reservations saying that Greg Carey or Buchnevich have top 6 potential. True 1st line players are rare and usually known to be quality ahead of the draft. There are exceptions, but they are few and far between. We've been fortunate with some very good 2nd line players that we drafted in the 2nd round onwards.
I understand this thinking, but recall that Duke (like about 50 players every year, granted) was one of the potential 1st rounders going into his draft year - and then had a terrible year, which is what caused him to slip. It's not like he came out of nowhere. And his numbers - at 18 - are simply fantastic. To your point, if he had been born a couple of weeks later, he'd be going into THIS draft and he'd BE one of those guys who's known to be quality ahead of it.

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02-11-2014, 11:25 AM
  #178
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There's a lot to like about Duclair. He has that Kessel-like slipperiness about him. He can change gears quickly, cut inside or power outside, and he can snap off a very quick and accurate shot. His velocity isn't on par with what Kessel had at the same age, but it's still NHL caliber.

The only real reservation I have with Duclair is whether or not he'll be able to create enough separation around the net in order to bang in the sort of goals he's been racking up. He can certainly score from the dots. It's great to see a player going to the dirty areas to score, but just because he is willing to go there it doesn't mean that he'll be able to get there regularly at the NHL level. He's deceptively strong, but he's going to have to take a different approach around the cage in the pro's. He's going to have to quick step bigger defenders, instead of trying to outmuscle other kids like he is now.

I know people are gun shy about pegging him as an A-level prospect, but I don't think you're going too far out on a limb if you say he is. Guys like Grachev and MSC were, and are, extremely skilled players. I see a lot of people saying Grachev lacked speed or other skills, and that just isn't true. What he lacked was between his ears. He couldn't process the game at a AHL level, let alone an NHL level. By the time he figured out what to do with the puck, he was out of time and space. The same can be said about MSC. He's incredibly skilled, is a solid skater, but simply thinks too slowly at this point to be an effective AHL player.

Duclair's skills are plus, but I think his ability to read the game at speed is what sets him apart and is the primary reason for his success this year. His head finally caught up to his feet and hands. If he can adapt this well to the NHL, I think we could be looking at a similar caliber player to David Perron.

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02-11-2014, 12:51 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
There's a lot to like about Duclair. He has that Kessel-like slipperiness about him. He can change gears quickly, cut inside or power outside, and he can snap off a very quick and accurate shot. His velocity isn't on par with what Kessel had at the same age, but it's still NHL caliber.

The only real reservation I have with Duclair is whether or not he'll be able to create enough separation around the net in order to bang in the sort of goals he's been racking up. He can certainly score from the dots. It's great to see a player going to the dirty areas to score, but just because he is willing to go there it doesn't mean that he'll be able to get there regularly at the NHL level. He's deceptively strong, but he's going to have to take a different approach around the cage in the pro's. He's going to have to quick step bigger defenders, instead of trying to outmuscle other kids like he is now.

I know people are gun shy about pegging him as an A-level prospect, but I don't think you're going too far out on a limb if you say he is. Guys like Grachev and MSC were, and are, extremely skilled players. I see a lot of people saying Grachev lacked speed or other skills, and that just isn't true. What he lacked was between his ears. He couldn't process the game at a AHL level, let alone an NHL level. By the time he figured out what to do with the puck, he was out of time and space. The same can be said about MSC. He's incredibly skilled, is a solid skater, but simply thinks too slowly at this point to be an effective AHL player.

Duclair's skills are plus, but I think his ability to read the game at speed is what sets him apart and is the primary reason for his success this year. His head finally caught up to his feet and hands. If he can adapt this well to the NHL, I think we could be looking at a similar caliber player to David Perron.
yeah, i dont get the ppl that quesiton Grachevs skating. musta been seeing a different player than me...Grachev for his size had TERRIFIC speed...he would blow by guys. his issue was work ethic imho.

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02-11-2014, 01:17 PM
  #180
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The Q as a league does not produce defensemen like the other CHL leagues do. Just look at recent drafts--first three rounds in 2013--Samuel Morin-1st, Jonathan Ismael Diaby--3rd. 2012--Dillon Fournier a 2nd--James Melindy-a 3rd. 2011--Nathan Beaulieu--a 1st, Xavier Ouellet a 2nd, Jonathan Racine-a 3rd. 2010--Brandon Gormley a 1st-Jerome Gauthier Leduc and Adam Janosik both 3rds. Ten guys in 4 years in the top 3 rounds. There are years when the OHL or WHL will do that in one year. Compare to European or College defenseman playing against older competition as well. Lot of USHL d-men going to college playing adults not kids. So I'm sticking with the contention that the Q lags behind the other CHL leagues when it comes to d-men.

This is not to shoot down Duclair's accomplishments this year--one can also say about that league is that historically it's turned out a lot of elite HOF caliber forwards--Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Mike Bossy, Pat Lafontaine. There's quite a list of others. That Duclair is leading it in goals is a big deal. He is a great skater. His size is similar to Hagelin's. These are similarities. If he stays in the 5'11-6'0 range he will probably be a stockier, stronger player than Hagelin and still a great skater--though there are things that Hagelin does laterally or reversals that most players can't do. Duclair's 20-25% goal scoring is not something sustainable in the NHL. A player needs to get shots--250-300 + a year anyway to be a big time goal scorer in the NHL. A player needs to get a lot of them from close range as well and to be able to do it under a lot more pressure--against the best defenders and goalies in the world.

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02-11-2014, 01:29 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
People are overly cautious because they're terrified of saying that someone has 1st line potential and look silly if they don't make it.
Terrified is a funny word to use in this context. 'Look silly'?--whatever that means. Like is there anyone here who has never made a stupid remark or guessed wrong or projected something that didn't turn out?--and then would worry so much about whether someone would call them on it to the point that they'd be so ashamed then that they'd might never post again? Everybody has their turn in the barrel sometime and I imagine you have too and will have it again.

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02-11-2014, 03:15 PM
  #182
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Another thing to consider about Duclair is he is not getting a lot of offensive help. He seems to be creating most of his own chances. Playing on a team where the next highest scorer is 17th in the Q, and then no one else in the top 40 is not an easy thing. Mantha for instance is on a team with the 4th and 5th scorers as well. I think Duclair will wind up getting more shots on the pro level since the chances are better there will be SOMEONE to compliment him, and maybe even a real good setup man...

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Old
02-11-2014, 03:23 PM
  #183
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Another thing to consider about Duclair is he is not getting a lot of offensive help. He seems to be creating most of his own chances. Playing on a team where the next highest scorer is 17th in the Q, and then no one else in the top 40 is not an easy thing. Mantha for instance is on a team with the 4th and 5th scorers as well. I think Duclair will wind up getting more shots on the pro level since the chances are better there will be SOMEONE to compliment him, and maybe even a real good setup man...
Is his next level AHL? He may get to play on a line with Kristo. That could be very beneficial for his development.

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02-11-2014, 03:30 PM
  #184
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I am just going to state that I think people are crapping on St Croix WAY too early. That kid is still all offense, just under developed physically.

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02-11-2014, 03:32 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
Is his next level AHL? He may get to play on a line with Kristo. That could be very beneficial for his development.
I would hope Kristo isn't in the AHL the year after next when Duclair is available for the AHL

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02-11-2014, 03:47 PM
  #186
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I am just going to state that I think people are crapping on St Croix WAY too early. That kid is still all offense, just under developed physically.

This.

Other than his 8 game cold streak after he was sent down from the AHL, the kid has scored in the ECHL 31 points in 24 games, on pace for 106 points over 82 games. Once he gets stronger, he'll at a minimum be a big-time AHL scorer, and I still think we shouldn't give up on him as an NHLer. MSC isn't Kyle Beach where he's too old to improve. He's a 20 year old. He'll be in the AHL next season. Let's see how he performs then.

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02-11-2014, 03:49 PM
  #187
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I would hope Kristo isn't in the AHL the year after next when Duclair is available for the AHL

If Kristo is a minor leaguer in 2 years, he will be a bust. He needs to make it next year or very early in 2015-16. Otherwise, he'll be riding the bus as a good AHLer for the rest of his career.

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02-11-2014, 04:01 PM
  #188
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If Kristo is a minor leaguer in 2 years, he will be a bust. He needs to make it next year or very early in 2015-16. Otherwise, he'll be riding the bus as a good AHLer for the rest of his career.
well i dunno in the AHL his whole career. look at PA Parenteau.. maybe he will make the NHL as full time player at the age of 27. i just hope this is not the case...



or he could be another Alex Giroux.. remember him

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02-11-2014, 04:23 PM
  #189
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I would hope Kristo isn't in the AHL the year after next when Duclair is available for the AHL
Whoops, thought he was eligible next year.

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Old
02-11-2014, 07:02 PM
  #190
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There's a lot to like about Duclair. He has that Kessel-like slipperiness about him. He can change gears quickly, cut inside or power outside, and he can snap off a very quick and accurate shot. His velocity isn't on par with what Kessel had at the same age, but it's still NHL caliber.

The only real reservation I have with Duclair is whether or not he'll be able to create enough separation around the net in order to bang in the sort of goals he's been racking up. He can certainly score from the dots. It's great to see a player going to the dirty areas to score, but just because he is willing to go there it doesn't mean that he'll be able to get there regularly at the NHL level. He's deceptively strong, but he's going to have to take a different approach around the cage in the pro's. He's going to have to quick step bigger defenders, instead of trying to outmuscle other kids like he is now.

I know people are gun shy about pegging him as an A-level prospect, but I don't think you're going too far out on a limb if you say he is. Guys like Grachev and MSC were, and are, extremely skilled players. I see a lot of people saying Grachev lacked speed or other skills, and that just isn't true. What he lacked was between his ears. He couldn't process the game at a AHL level, let alone an NHL level. By the time he figured out what to do with the puck, he was out of time and space. The same can be said about MSC. He's incredibly skilled, is a solid skater, but simply thinks too slowly at this point to be an effective AHL player.

Duclair's skills are plus, but I think his ability to read the game at speed is what sets him apart and is the primary reason for his success this year. His head finally caught up to his feet and hands. If he can adapt this well to the NHL, I think we could be looking at a similar caliber player to David Perron.
Yeah, and I mean, by far the hardest thing to do it "cross-scout" kids. That's what screws most NHL teams scouting, and brings down the quality of NHL scouting in comparision with the other pro-leagues.

If all prospects played in the same league, it would be a heck of a lot easier to scout them. But now, you know that you got a very limited number of good players outside the NHL at any given time. Those kids are spread all over the world. Its one thing to rank all kids in the Swedish junior league, in the Swedish 2nd tier league, the SHL and so forth. Buts its sooo hard to predict how a kid in the Q match up against a kid playing in like the Finnish top league if you get what I mean.

We know what Duclair can do in the Q. We can see how he really moves well on the ice which is a positive in relation to some of the other junior scorers we have had (Dawes, Thomas and co). But how will that match up against the other kids?

I do not agree on Grachev however. And I said this before he even got out of the OHL. He is a big man. He skates like a big man. It don't matter if he can set-of in a hurry and show great speed on a breakaway, he is a real big player and hence he wasn't agile at all on the ice. He just struggles to skate with the pace of the game at the highest level. He couldn't even keep up in the WJC's. Many had blinders on, but he couldn't. I reported that too back when the tournament was being played. There is a big challenge for a player his size to play in the NHL. Size is only a positive factor in a few limited situations, it won't help you 95% of the time. The game is very fast nowadays. The intensity is great. Its maybe true that Grachev still should have been able to do more with his skill, but I mean, just look at like Nick Bjugstad in Florida. He is a good hockey player for someone with his size, and will find some kind of role in the NHL. But he -- still -- looks pretty darn awful on the ice in many sitautions in the NHL.


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02-11-2014, 07:35 PM
  #191
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Quote:
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This.

Other than his 8 game cold streak after he was sent down from the AHL, the kid has scored in the ECHL 31 points in 24 games, on pace for 106 points over 82 games. Once he gets stronger, he'll at a minimum be a big-time AHL scorer, and I still think we shouldn't give up on him as an NHLer. MSC isn't Kyle Beach where he's too old to improve. He's a 20 year old. He'll be in the AHL next season. Let's see how he performs then.
I don't think it's anything physical that's holding him back; rather, I think he's too slow mentally. He's just a "step" slow making decisions. I don't know, he could turn it around I guess, but I've never seen anything from him that to me screams legitimate talent.

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02-11-2014, 08:09 PM
  #192
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I don't think it's anything physical that's holding him back; rather, I think he's too slow mentally. He's just a "step" slow making decisions. I don't know, he could turn it around I guess, but I've never seen anything from him that to me screams legitimate talent.
I don't disagree, the odds are not in his favor, but he has too much offensive ability for people to give up on him at the age of 20. Let's give him achieve year. If he can get 45-50 points in the AHL next season, there is still hope. But if he struggles to crack the top-6 in Hartford next year, I will agree to give up on him. PAP scored 41 points as a 21 year old his second pro season. If MSC repeat PAP's road, he will be a valuable NHLer making a ton of money. I wouldn't mind adding PAP on an ELC.

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02-11-2014, 08:29 PM
  #193
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P.S. This is a good stat to remember when people compare Dawes to Duke: the latter is scoring 36% more per game, in addition to two extra inches of height.
The best way to describe The Duke in comparison to Nigel Dawes is like that old Chris Rock special way back when: Bigger, Blacker, Better.

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02-11-2014, 08:35 PM
  #194
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If Kristo just takes a one year deal for next season will he be eligible to be a group 6 UFA July 1, 2015?

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02-11-2014, 11:33 PM
  #195
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Can Duclair one day play opposite Kreider? Or is his skills suited perfectly for a LW

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02-11-2014, 11:35 PM
  #196
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Can Duclair one day play opposite Kreider? Or is his skills suited perfectly for a LW
He's played both this year.

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02-12-2014, 12:54 AM
  #197
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Since it looked like jimmies were indeed rustled, I would like to talk about McIlrath here.

His underlying stats look pretty concerning, according to what Blue Blooded posted. Not nearly good enough for a player who's supposedly being groomed for a shutdown role. But I guess it's his first full season and he is a project after all. Give him 4-5 more years at the very least.

I think it's pretty insulting for the other players who were picked near McIlrath to be compared to him. Most of them are on another level and people expecting him to reach that level probably need a reality check.

It's not that he's bad (well he could improve a lot), it's just that the other players Tarasenko Fowler and co. are probably franchise building blocks. It's a tough pill to swallow. Like the Bruins picking Mark Stuart in the 2003 draft I guess.


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02-12-2014, 01:09 AM
  #198
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Since it looked like jimmies were indeed rustled, I would like to talk about McIlrath here.

His underlying stats look pretty concerning, according to what Blue Blooded posted. Not nearly good enough for a player who's supposedly being groomed for a shutdown role. But I guess it's his first full season and he is a project after all. Give him 4-5 more years at the very least.

I think it's pretty insulting for the other players who were picked near McIlrath to be compared to him. Most of them are on another level and people expecting him to reach that level probably need a reality check.
Eh, while those weren't certainly weren't indicative of anything positive I wouldn't put too much stock into them as they were goal-based and therefore privy to variance issues. Unfortunately that's all that has been available for the AHL thus far.

Re: McIlrath - he won't be playing in the AHL for 4-5 more years, especially considering that his waiver exemption will expire before that!

But continuing the discussion from the locked thread, I agree with what -31- said there - that while McIlrath may turn into an NHL player it was a bad pick no matter what. There just isn't enough upside. Considering the level of talent that was available - that is a bad pick no matter how you slice it, even without hindsight.

McIlrath's top end potential is basically Derian Hatcher, and while Derian Hatcher was a fearsome top-pairing defenceman pre-lockout, the game has changed since then and that type of defenceman is no longer anything but a third pairing guy on a good team. No matter how much we want it, McIlrath doesn't have the skill to become a Pronger, Weber, or even a Tyler Myers.

I mean we complain about Girardi's lack of skill with the puck - and he is significantly more talented than McIlrath.

No matter how fondly Ranger fans remember the days of a Jeff Beukeboom on the top pairing - those days are gone.

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02-12-2014, 01:48 AM
  #199
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Give him 4-5 more years at the very least.
4-5 more years to do what? Reach free agency?

He'll be in the NHL at some point next season.

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02-12-2014, 07:21 AM
  #200
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Adam Tambellini scored last night for Calgary.

Mackenzie Skapski won again. He stopped 34 of 35 shots. Ten straight wins for him, on an otherwise unremarkable team. Outstanding. Kootenay only has one other NHL-drafted player, Tim Bozon, a third round pick by the Habs. Skapski is really carrying that team.

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