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Trade Rumor/Speculation Thread XIX: The Olympic Freeze

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Old
02-12-2014, 08:41 PM
  #326
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
I'm asking you how that package does anything for us?

Neither Stewart nor the low first has any type of high probability of paying dividends for us after next year.

The argument to trade Callahan and give up this season is given so that we have a brighter future. Stewart and a low first is that bright future?

********. We have trouble finding a successful player in the top 10 picks of the first round. You're gonna tell me we have a decent shot of finding that in 24-29?

And Stewart? He's supposed to be adequate replacement for Callahan? He'll want the same pay raise next year, 5.5-6 mill. So same problem with him too. With raises coming up for several of our players we'll be willing to give Stewart the raise when we aren't willing to give fan favorite Callahan that raise?

Please.
I don't see how moving one player is giving up the season. Whatever the Rangers are going to do, or not do, they will do so with or without Callahan. He is not a game-breaker on most nights.

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02-12-2014, 08:45 PM
  #327
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Please tell me any team that has traded their captain in the middle of a playoff run and not suffered.
This.

People act like it won't affect team morale, when it more than likely will.

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02-12-2014, 08:46 PM
  #328
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I don't see how moving one player is giving up the season. Whatever the Rangers are going to do, or not do, they will do so with or without Callahan. He is not a game-breaker on most nights.
Locker room effect. It'll hurt.

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02-12-2014, 08:49 PM
  #329
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Let me ask you guys something... seriously. Is there anything that's you've said in the last 5 pages that hasn't been said by you in a previous thread?

This is going to be a long few weeks. I hope that we get Girardi or Stralman signed so there's at least something different to discuss.

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02-12-2014, 08:51 PM
  #330
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Let me ask you guys something... seriously. Is there anything that's you've said in the last 5 pages that hasn't been said by you in a previous thread?

This is going to be a long few weeks. I hope that we get Girardi or Stralman signed so there's at least something different to discuss.
No, and i'm ashamed. It's become like a guilty pleasure... without any pleasure...

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02-12-2014, 08:51 PM
  #331
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If we don't trade Callahan, how the heck are we gonna keep Richards??

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Old
02-12-2014, 08:53 PM
  #332
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If we don't trade Callahan, how the heck are we gonna keep Richards??
I hope this is sarcasm.

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Old
02-12-2014, 08:55 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Rangerfan4life90 View Post
This.

People act like it won't affect team morale, when it more than likely will.
If this team collapses on itself because one player, with a diminished role who is demanding far too much money, gets traded...that Stanley Cup chance is probably even smaller. And it was already very small.

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02-12-2014, 08:58 PM
  #334
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
If this team collapses on itself because one player, with a diminished role who is demanding far too much money, gets traded...that Stanley Cup chance is probably even smaller. And it was already very small.
If the team collapses because of one player... maybe... try not to trade him unless the offer is worth it?

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02-12-2014, 08:58 PM
  #335
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I find it ironic that someone who is so optimistic about a one-shot chance to run the table against the odds this year is so pessimistic about multiple opportunities to grow from within, add to an existing solid core of talent and win 1, 2 or 3 years (depending on what you get back and whether you then have to build further on those assets) down the road.

You make it sound like we've got an opportunity to rent Wayne Gretzky in his prime for a stretch run against relatively equal opponents and we're declining that option in favor of a handful of 7th round picks.
A large part of that for me is that the east is sooo amazingly weak right now. Pittsburg is beatable. They are every season, and their defense and goaltending has not gotten better. That leaves Boston. When have you ever seen the East so incredibly weak? The NYR have been playing outstanding hockey, eye test, advanced stats, etc the team is playing well with the best goaltender in the world back to playing it. That's one hurdle to the SC, Boston. Boston is not immune to an upset. That's all we need is one upset. With the way they played the last month plus, we should beat any of the other EC teams, and Lundqvist only needs to steal a game or two for Boston. Anaheim, LA, SJ, they're all one injury from being beatable.

When most playoff seasons this team would need a Cinderella run, just to get yo the ECF, we should be there now. Healthy and hot makes us dangerous. No team can ask for better odds than that. Teams compete for Cups when they can. Sometimes it's because they've built a powerhouse, sometimes it's because the path there is softer than at any other time. A good GM can't sacrifice the future by adding with these odds, but I'd take a shot at keeping Cally as our own rental and losing him, rather than any rental fee I've seen paid for a similar player in the last decade.

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Old
02-12-2014, 09:04 PM
  #336
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
I'm asking you how that package does anything for us?

Neither Stewart nor the low first has any type of high probability of paying dividends for us after next year.

The argument to trade Callahan and give up this season is given so that we have a brighter future. Stewart and a low first is that bright future?

********. We have trouble finding a successful player in the top 10 picks of the first round. You're gonna tell me we have a decent shot of finding that in 24-29?

And Stewart? He's supposed to be adequate replacement for Callahan? He'll want the same pay raise next year, 5.5-6 mill. So same problem with him too. With raises coming up for several of our players we'll be willing to give Stewart the raise when we aren't willing to give fan favorite Callahan that raise?

Please.
You're looking at each asset in a vacuum. Of course each one is a low probability of converting. But the more you add, the greater the aggregate probability of producing diamonds rather than coal.

So, as opposed to the one limited run this year, you've now upped the chance that you find difference makers in this/next draft. And taking the hypothetical STL offer, Stewart may regain his Colorado form here. Odds are against it, but he's still young and he's done it before. If he doesn't, then you flip have the same option next year regarding HIM (granted, on a lesser scale, but extra 3rds and 5ths help too - just look at our recent drafts).

Rinse, repeat.

See how that's better than a long odds, one-time shot?

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Old
02-12-2014, 09:08 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
You're looking at each asset in a vacuum. Of course each one is a low probability of converting. But the more you add, the greater the aggregate probability of producing diamonds rather than coal.

So, as opposed to the one limited run this year, you've now upped the chance that you find difference makers in this/next draft. And taking the hypothetical STL offer, Stewart may regain his Colorado form here. Odds are against it, but he's still young and he's done it before. If he doesn't, then you flip have the same option next year regarding HIM (granted, on a lesser scale, but extra 3rds and 5ths help too - just look at our recent drafts).

Rinse, repeat.

See how that's better than a long odds, one-time shot?
I don't think keeping one player instead of flipping him for a sub-par package could make or break our future. That would mean that the rest of our f.o. planning has miserably failed.

I can see how trading Cally for some grade A prospects could define our success moving forward. But giving up a season for huge uncertainties that bear massive failure rates seems to be very poor planning on everyones part.

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02-12-2014, 09:09 PM
  #338
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Originally Posted by SlingshotVv View Post
A large part of that for me is that the east is sooo amazingly weak right now. Pittsburg is beatable. They are every season, and their defense and goaltending has not gotten better. That leaves Boston. When have you ever seen the East so incredibly weak? The NYR have been playing outstanding hockey, eye test, advanced stats, etc the team is playing well with the best goaltender in the world back to playing it. That's one hurdle to the SC, Boston. Boston is not immune to an upset. That's all we need is one upset. With the way they played the last month plus, we should beat any of the other EC teams, and Lundqvist only needs to steal a game or two for Boston. Anaheim, LA, SJ, they're all one injury from being beatable.

When most playoff seasons this team would need a Cinderella run, just to get yo the ECF, we should be there now. Healthy and hot makes us dangerous. No team can ask for better odds than that. Teams compete for Cups when they can. Sometimes it's because they've built a powerhouse, sometimes it's because the path there is softer than at any other time. A good GM can't sacrifice the future by adding with these odds, but I'd take a shot at keeping Cally as our own rental and losing him, rather than any rental fee I've seen paid for a similar player in the last decade.
Fair enough. I think you think a little more highly of this team, and a little less highly of the Pens, than I do. I also think you're minimizing the chances of beating both Boston and whichever of the teams comes out of the West.

Of course, I will be rooting for just that once the trade deadline passes, but I - and more importantly a GM - can't let what I'm rooting for color his analysis over what he believes to be most likely when it comes to a situation like this.


Last edited by BrooklynRangersFan: 02-12-2014 at 09:47 PM.
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Old
02-12-2014, 09:15 PM
  #339
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I don't think keeping one player instead of flipping him for a sub-par package could make or break our future. That would mean that the rest of our f.o. planning has miserably failed.

I can see how trading Cally for some grade A prospects could define our success moving forward. But giving up a season for huge uncertainties that bear massive failure rates seems to be very poor planning on everyones part.
You keep coloring it to paint Cally's importance much higher than it is and the value of each additional asset much lower than IT is. Go back and look at Cally's draft:

__6 1 Al Montoya
_19 1 Lauri Korpikoski
_36 2 Darin Olver
_48 2 Dane Byers
_51 2 Bruce Graham
_60 2 Brandon Dubinsky
_73 3 Zdenek Bahensky
_80 3 Billy Ryan
127 4 Ryan Callahan
135 5 Roman Psurny
169 6 Jordan Foote
247 8 Jonathan Paiement
266 9 Jakub Petruzalek

Do we even GET this great, fantastic leader if we don't have that slew of picks, including a late 1st (who did better than the early 1st) and multiple mid tier picks?

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Old
02-12-2014, 09:16 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
You keep coloring it to paint Cally's importance much higher than it is and the value of each additional asset much lower than IT is. Go back and look at Cally's draft:

__6 1 Al Montoya
_19 1 Lauri Korpikoski
_36 2 Darin Olver
_48 2 Dane Byers
_51 2 Bruce Graham
_60 2 Brandon Dubinsky
_73 3 Zdenek Bahensky
_80 3 Billy Ryan
127 4 Ryan Callahan
135 5 Roman Psurny
169 6 Jordan Foote
247 8 Jonathan Paiement
266 9 Jakub Petruzalek

Do we even GET this great, fantastic leader if we don't have that slew of picks, including a late 1st (who did better than the early 1st) and multiple mid tier picks?
Look at the failure rate....

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Old
02-12-2014, 09:17 PM
  #341
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Originally Posted by kenjets36 View Post
look at the failure rate....
Oh, for the love of pete... That is EXACTLY the point!

More picks, even mid tier picks = greater chance of success. Compare the draft above to the last time the Rangers had a normal allotment of one pick per round.

_21 1 Bob Sanguinetti
_54 2 Artem Anisimov
_84 3 Ryan Hillier
104 4 David Kveton
137 5 Tomas Zaborsky
174 6 Eric Hunter
204 7 Lukas Zeliska


Last edited by BrooklynRangersFan: 02-12-2014 at 09:26 PM.
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Old
02-12-2014, 09:21 PM
  #342
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Oh, for the love of pete... That is EXACTLY the point!

More picks, even mid tier picks = greater chance of success.
That draft was an aberration, even though I get your point. A 33% success rate in a full draft? Rare, rare, rare. (By the way, Pavelec is in danger of losing the starting job to Montoya, it seems).

But I agree with your point, which is that quantity can be good in the draft.

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02-12-2014, 09:31 PM
  #343
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That draft was an aberration, even though I get your point. A 33% success rate in a full draft? Rare, rare, rare. (By the way, Pavelec is in danger of losing the starting job to Montoya, it seems).

But I agree with your point, which is that quantity can be good in the draft.
Good for Al! I always liked him.

Agreed that 33% is high - although our scouts seem to have been doing very well with the limited ammo Slats has left them since Clark took over - but that goes to the point as well.

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02-12-2014, 09:53 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
You keep coloring it to paint Cally's importance much higher than it is and the value of each additional asset much lower than IT is. Go back and look at Cally's draft:

__6 1 Al Montoya
_19 1 Lauri Korpikoski
_36 2 Darin Olver
_48 2 Dane Byers
_51 2 Bruce Graham
_60 2 Brandon Dubinsky
_73 3 Zdenek Bahensky
_80 3 Billy Ryan
127 4 Ryan Callahan
135 5 Roman Psurny
169 6 Jordan Foote
247 8 Jonathan Paiement
266 9 Jakub Petruzalek

Do we even GET this great, fantastic leader if we don't have that slew of picks, including a late 1st (who did better than the early 1st) and multiple mid tier picks?
Makes Stewart look better


Last edited by Lindberg Cheese: 02-12-2014 at 09:54 PM. Reason: Premature posticulation
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02-12-2014, 10:16 PM
  #345
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Look at the failure rate....
Look at the failure rate for every team, in every draft. It'll have your head spinning if you think getting 3 successful NHLers out of one draft is a failure (it's not).

That doesn't mean you stop drafting.

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02-12-2014, 10:30 PM
  #346
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I'm asking you how that package does anything for us?

Neither Stewart nor the low first has any type of high probability of paying dividends for us after next year.

The argument to trade Callahan and give up this season is given so that we have a brighter future. Stewart and a low first is that bright future?

********. We have trouble finding a successful player in the top 10 picks of the first round. You're gonna tell me we have a decent shot of finding that in 24-29?

And Stewart? He's supposed to be adequate replacement for Callahan? He'll want the same pay raise next year, 5.5-6 mill. So same problem with him too. With raises coming up for several of our players we'll be willing to give Stewart the raise when we aren't willing to give fan favorite Callahan that raise?

Please.
We have trouble finding success in the first round?

Korpikoski, Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider are NHL players. Miller is on the verge. McIlrath will be on the verge shortly. Skjei is developing very well.

Suggesting a draft that supplied 3 NHL regulars, including one captain and one alternate captain, is a failure?

The comment was most likely a jab at McIlrath, so I will reiterate what was said in the other thread. A universally accepted ideal amongst professional scouts and player development personnel is that ANY draft pick #1 or #200, takes AT LEAST 5 years to reach the NHL and start competing for a regular position on the roster. After that another couple of years to establish themselves as a regular contributor. 5-7 years of development before beginning to reach potential. McIlrath was drafted in2010. 4 years ago. He is ahead of the curve. He made his NHL debut less than a full season after turning Pro. He will be competing for a spot in camp.


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Old
02-12-2014, 10:39 PM
  #347
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Anytime someone brings up old draft please keep in mind that it was a different regime runnnig the show. It was Maloney and Renney.

Also, I'd rather have another first and swing for the fences instead of letting Cally walk for nothing. Maybe Josh Ho-Sang becomes a star in NY. Maybe Jack Dougherty plays a decade plus here. You never know.

Brock Nelson is a Ranger if the Islanders don't trade up. These things happen all the time.

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02-12-2014, 10:49 PM
  #348
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Anytime someone brings up old draft please keep in mind that it was a different regime runnnig the show. It was Maloney and Renney.

Also, I'd rather have another first and swing for the fences instead of letting Cally walk for nothing. Maybe Josh Ho-Sang becomes a star in NY. Maybe Jack Dougherty plays a decade plus here. You never know.

Brock Nelson is a Ranger if the Islanders don't trade up. These things happen all the time.
Totally understood, but the point about increasing the odds with more picks stands (and I think you're agreeing) regardless of regime. Heck, given that I think the current front office team is better at the draft than the guys who ran the ones above, it's all the more reason not to scoff at picks in exchange for Cally.

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02-13-2014, 02:10 PM
  #349
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Too busy, even on my birthday, to hang too long w/you guys.

Just dropping off a coupla thoughts till the weekend....

It is obvious the Kings are desperate for offense.
Aware he prob. can veto, and it's not a great contract coming back, but what about

Nash, Girardi + possible cap/balance adds
for
Doughty, Pearson, Martinez + Kings 1st?

-----------------

Second, as you know I have long advocated holding JT Miller to pair with Kreider.
I maintain that would be a success.

In the course of recent threads, Buf seemed ok w/putting Pysyk on the table, but Miller had to be in the deal.

Ott is likely to test FA after season. Ditto Cally at our end. But perhaps:
Ott + Pysyk
for
Miller + Callahan

Sabes like JT and could gamble, but we might up ante to extend Cally if nec, but this is win, win both sides and they are sure to get him.
I still think we should consider moving Stepan for an upgrade, and finding a faster C for Kreider, maybe MAYBE Kesler, but, let's say both deals done:

Kreider Stepan Zucarello
Pearson Ott Brassard
Hagelin Richards* Pouilot**
Carcillo Moore Dorsett**

as a work in progress.
* next year Lindberg ** next year Fast replaces one of these guys probably Dorsett to make all Swede 3rd line w/Pouilot (LW but a righty shot) dropped to 4th line.

Yogan/Kristo/Hrivik all in this mix as well
McD Doughty
Staal Pysyk
Moore/Martinez Klein/Stralman/McIlrath

Big time upgrade to RD, moved a big contract, got value for our UFAs... + Kings 1st?
leave anything out?

Boyle likely gonner for more $$, best offer, maybe oilers, bundle w/like Missainen to compete for backup.

Till weekend!

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02-13-2014, 03:20 PM
  #350
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Totally understood, but the point about increasing the odds with more picks stands (and I think you're agreeing) regardless of regime. Heck, given that I think the current front office team is better at the draft than the guys who ran the ones above, it's all the more reason not to scoff at picks in exchange for Cally.
As long as an NHL player near Callahan's caliber is coming back its not a problem. There's no reason why we shouldn't be able to get:

1 x 2nd/3rd line NHL Player
1 x Middling AHL Prospect
1 x 1st/2nd Round Draft Pick

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