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2013-2014 CHL/NCAA/Euro Prospects thread 4.0

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Old
02-15-2014, 07:40 PM
  #101
QuebecPride
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
well, just read any Mantha thread on the prospects board or Wings board

After the 2012 draft I said I was almost in tears because Timmins picked Galchenyuk, Collberg and Hudon. Of course I was mad he picked Thrower over Severson but hey, gotta complain a bit

That said, there's nothing to add really about Hudon. We all know he's a good junior player. Remains to be seen what he can do at the next level. I think we all know what his strengths and weaknesses are, no point in debating over him. Same for Bennett and who have you. In the case of McCarron, I still don't think we agree on the type of player he can/should become. From draft day I said he suffered from the Alain Vigneault syndrome. That is, what chair does he sit on? No sure he even knows what his role is and I don't think I've been proven wrong on this one yet.
He has plenty of time before finding where he'll fit in an NHL lineup. One thing I believe though is that he'll be a better Pro than junior, because by then he should be much stronger in his lower body and will be able to really use his natural advantage over other players.

His adjustment to the Pros will be smoother than most, because he already plays a mature game.

Also, McCarron is not the sole player to pad his stats against Sarnia and Kitchener this year. I'm sure you'd find many players that see their PPG rate go up against weaker teams.

People bashed him because he was not producing, but now that he is, we still find something wrong. Let's see if he keeps this up.

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Originally Posted by Chris Cutter View Post
Drafting a 17-20 goal scorer 25th overall should not be considered a disappointment and that's without taking in consideration the other elements he could bring.
The thing is that 2013 had plenty to chose from, I understand that many people on here could have other preferences at that pick. We need to keep in mind though that what really is important, is how good he's going to be in the NHL, not in Junior. In a lot of cases, lack of production in junior means the guy won't amount to much. But a 6'5'' Powerforward is not most cases. This is a rare breed of player.

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Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
So you liked both Hudon and Lehkonen. Is there a pattern there? Both smallish
players who lack top end speed, and look like they may struggle to add muscles.

Both have already proved that they can compete against grown men.

As a bias, it"s a lot more interesting than the bias some people have in
favor of size and/or fighting skills.

I don't see where you get that Lehkonen lacks top speed. He's a pretty good skater in his own right.


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Old
02-15-2014, 08:29 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by QuebecPride View Post
He has plenty of time before finding where he'll fit in an NHL lineup. One thing I believe though is that he'll be a better Pro than junior, because by then he should be much stronger in his lower body and will be able to really use his natural advantage over other players.

His adjustment to the Pros will be smoother than most, because he already plays a mature game.

Also, McCarron is not the sole player to pad his stats against Sarnia and Kitchener this year. I'm sure you'd find many players that see their PPG rate go up against weaker teams.

People bashed him because he was not producing, but now that he is, we still find something wrong. Let's see if he keeps this up.



The thing is that 2013 had plenty to chose from, I understand that many people on here could have other preferences at that pick. We need to keep in mind though that what really is important, is how good he's going to be in the NHL, not in Junior. In a lot of cases, lack of production in junior means the guy won't amount to much. But a 6'5'' Powerforward is not most cases. This is a rare breed of player.



I don't see where you get that Lehkonen lacks top speed. He's a pretty good skater in his own right.
Well I agree with all of that. In fact the second paragraph is exactly what
should be said.

As to Lehkonen's skating, I agree that he is a pretty good skater. However,
far better scouts than I, have said that he could have better speed for a guy
in his role.
But obviously that was not the point.

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02-15-2014, 08:58 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by FisherKing View Post
One of the things that really surprises me about Leblanc is how effective he is along the boards given his incredibly thin frame. Really surprises me. He's seems much more effective along the boards than he should be given his size. Strange...
Leblanc's board work has always reminded me of Parise.

Also, great to hear McCarron's playing well.

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02-15-2014, 11:52 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
So you liked both Hudon and Lehkonen. Is there a pattern there? Both smallish
players who lack top end speed, and look like they may struggle to add muscles.

Both have already proved that they can compete against grown men.

As a bias, it"s a lot more interesting than the bias some people have in
favor of size and/or fighting skills.



btw, it's not that I actually look for small guys, it's just that in the grand scheme of things those guys are still underrated. At the moment there's just no market for big guys. People are willing $120 for something worth $100.

Habs are a proof that size is overrated. One of the smallest team in the league, yet they're in 4th place in the east, closing in on 3rd. Reading the board you'd think the Canadiens are dead last or close to. At the same time, the biggest team in the league, Winnipeg, isn't making the playoffs again this year. People overvalue size and it's not even funny. I'll concede that there's some correlation between size and winning, that said, it's so small that it's really not worth considering over talent (talent as in offensive and defensive skills).

Reminds me of Marty St. Louis. He pointed out a few years ago in an interview that some players have to prove they can play in the league. Some have to prove they can't.

This year I may end up being the only one in the Robby Fabbri camp but hey those smart hockey players are underrated. That's still where you pick up value. Unless they're 6'5 scoring machines who won't fight but that's a different story also

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuebecPride View Post
He has plenty of time before finding where he'll fit in an NHL lineup. One thing I believe though is that he'll be a better Pro than junior, because by then he should be much stronger in his lower body and will be able to really use his natural advantage over other players.

His adjustment to the Pros will be smoother than most, because he already plays a mature game.

Also, McCarron is not the sole player to pad his stats against Sarnia and Kitchener this year. I'm sure you'd find many players that see their PPG rate go up against weaker teams.

People bashed him because he was not producing, but now that he is, we still find something wrong. Let's see if he keeps this up.



The thing is that 2013 had plenty to chose from, I understand that many people on here could have other preferences at that pick. We need to keep in mind though that what really is important, is how good he's going to be in the NHL, not in Junior. In a lot of cases, lack of production in junior means the guy won't amount to much. But a 6'5'' Powerforward is not most cases. This is a rare breed of player.
Sure there's plenty of time to develop. That said, I'm not in the big guys develop and adjust better camp. We've seen so many examples of big forwards bust and so few develop their game like Lucic. There's just no evidence that those big 6'5 guys amount to more than your average 5'10 185 guy offensively.

I'm hoping his recent games will help with his confidence. That said, I'm not sure confidence is the issue to begin with. I was just pointing that if he were anyone else say a certain somebody padding his stats against Germany and not doing anything against any other countries, all we'd be hearing is that there's no merit to scoring against weaker teams when you can't get it done against the big boys.

What I was told on draft day was that the Habs picked McCarron to play against the big boys. Not someone who'd simply pad his stats against the bottom placed teams like a certain somebody else. I simply find the situation very ironic.

I'm not a big believer in positive thinking either
Doubt McCarron or any Habs prospect has any slight idea that HF even exists or that there's a couple guys there who aren't too excited about certain picks.

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02-16-2014, 12:24 AM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
Well I agree with all of that. In fact the second paragraph is exactly what
should be said.

As to Lehkonen's skating, I agree that he is a pretty good skater. However, far better scouts than I, have said that he could have better speed for a guy
in his role.
But obviously that was not the point.
What scouts are those? ;-) This scout thinks his skating is fine. As for wanting better speed..every player would like that. It won't be a bad thing for him to continue working on his speed, but in particular his explosiveness...he could be stronger.

what he needs to work on the most is gaining some pounds. I had a good chat with Marty Lapointe about that..I mentioned the videos that show him working out without weights and suggested that wasn't the perfect workout because he needed to gain weight. He agreed, and has talked to Artie about it...following a Habs workout regime.

McCarron is a large project in progress. Everyone I speak to in the organization and elsewhere says the same thing - he is going to need time.

I would have liked better stats so far, but his game is not going to be just about stats.

That said - he's developing good chemistry with Marner..who is going to be a high pick next season. He ends up centering a top line with Marner next season..I think you'll see a continued progression in his point totals...hopefully 20 + goals and 50+ points while also becoming more consistently physical. You never know - he may play with Domi and Marner...if Horvat makes the Canucks, and that will be expected, McCarron will be the top returning center at this point.

Mind you..Marner may be at center next year...regardless, it's shaping up for McCarron to be playing a top six role next season, along with power play and hopefully penalty killing duties.

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02-16-2014, 12:39 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by P I K E Y View Post
you are right, he broke the AHL record with a shot of 104.6 MPH

He was also saying he had no idea his shot was that hard, his first time ever recording it
And it will be faster in the next three years...in game play, that's 90 MPH. Habs need to deal with Nygren, or trade him for something good.

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02-16-2014, 12:44 AM
  #107
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McCarron looked good tonight when he played. Played some PK and PP. Scored a goal, too. Initially bobbled the pass, but blew the past the defender and then cut to the slot and fired a backhander over the sprawled goaltender. He took a tripping penalty and complained all the way to the box and was given an unsportsmanlike. Only shift he saw in the third was he left the penalty box and headed to the bench.
Good, sounds like he has some emotion, which if I remember, you need to play hockey.

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02-16-2014, 01:03 AM
  #108
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No offense but I'm just trying to be as realist as possible. I was very positive on the Charles Hudon selection for example, same for Lehkonen. I don't see the point in watching reality with rose-colored glasses. You're entitled to be optimistic but I don't see the point in thinking that all of McCarron, Nevins, Vail and whoever will all become very important NHL players.

My honest expectations about McCarron from the beginning are that if he's going to become an NHL player it will be as a defensive player in the Travis Moen type. Kid has never shown any kind of offensive upside at any level. I understand that people would want a Milan Lucic here. Just saying that hoping for Lucic like development is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

So far I think I'm probably closer to reality than those hyping him as a dominant forward to be in the OHL and top-6 player to become in the NHL. Sure might happen but unlikely I find.

Having honest expectations for the kid is more fair than thinking he'll become a Lucic kinda guy when it's just very unlikely.
I see Mac as a 15 goal third liner that takes no ****, and in the playoffs contributes a couple of huge goals while pounding opposing big D game after game, injuring them, wearing them out. A huge Mike McPhee, a key player on a cup winner.

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02-16-2014, 01:18 AM
  #109
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well, just read any Mantha thread on the prospects board or Wings board

After the 2012 draft I said I was almost in tears because Timmins picked Galchenyuk, Collberg and Hudon. Of course I was mad he picked Thrower over Severson but hey, gotta complain a bit

That said, there's nothing to add really about Hudon. We all know he's a good junior player. Remains to be seen what he can do at the next level. I think we all know what his strengths and weaknesses are, no point in debating over him. Same for Bennett and who have you. In the case of McCarron, I still don't think we agree on the type of player he can/should become. From draft day I said he suffered from the Alain Vigneault syndrome. That is, what chair does he sit on? No sure he even knows what his role is and I don't think I've been proven wrong on this one yet.
Huh? The kid is 18. if he learns to be a pro hockey player, I think he will know his role. What the **** are you babbling about? I think you need to realize how young the guys we blab about here really are.

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02-16-2014, 02:18 AM
  #110
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Huh? The kid is 18. if he learns to be a pro hockey player, I think he will know his role. What the **** are you babbling about? I think you need to realize how young the guys we blab about here really are.
Ask people who follow the Knights. One comment I've often read is that he doesn't have a role. Is he an offensive guy? defensive guy? tough guy?

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02-16-2014, 05:02 AM
  #111
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Ask people who follow the Knights. One comment I've often read is that he doesn't have a role. Is he an offensive guy? defensive guy? tough guy?
Obviously you're talking about the Hunter's or someone in the hockey world, right? Negative posts continually, ever any positive feedback on anyone in the Habs organization? Really?

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02-16-2014, 10:49 AM
  #112
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Mark MacMillan had two more assists last night, bringing his total on the weekend up to two goals and three assists. In his last 10 games, MacMillan has 5 goals and 8 assists. Pretty impressive turnaround after his slow start due to injury.

Here's MacMillan's three point game from two nights ago:


In the WHL, Bozon hit 100 career goals in 198 games with an empty netter. Charles Hudon is the next closest to 100 career goals, with 99.

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Thanks for another great report and vids That. Your reports are really great for people like myself who don't get much chance to see our prospects much. Just wanted you to know that your efforts and observations and analysis of these guys is really very much appreciated. Great job.
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Beautiful write-up, my man
Thanks FisherKing and Kobe Armstrong! I appreciate the kind words.

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02-16-2014, 11:14 AM
  #113
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Obviously you're talking about the Hunter's or someone in the hockey world, right? Negative posts continually, ever any positive feedback on anyone in the Habs organization? Really?
You seem a bit too sensitive. I didn't say anything against those guys.

Besides, we discussed trading the first round pick this year. That's because I like the young core of the Habs obviously. You don't see me asking for half the team to be traded every night so the Canadiens can go back in the basement.

Seriously, I've been high on Hudon for quite some time. I don't see the point in debating anything on him quite honestly. We all know what he's about. Just remains to be seen if he can take it to the next level. Need me to say that Galchenyuk is a good young player? or that Tinordi si a good prospect? I don't see the point either. Good for you if you think positive thinking on the board will lead to anything tangible.

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02-16-2014, 11:34 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
Ask people who follow the Knights. One comment I've often read is that he doesn't have a role. Is he an offensive guy? defensive guy? tough guy?
I think that has more to do with how stacked the Knights are than McCarron. On most teams, he'd have an offensive role.

Not many teams can afford to put an NHL 1st rounder on the 3rd line.

It's the same situation the Drakkar are in, they are so strong that they can afford to put Paquin-Boudreau on the 3rd if he doesn't produce.

If McCarron played for Sherbrooke, I can assure you he'd have plenty of ice and would have a defined role.

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02-16-2014, 11:56 AM
  #115
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I think that has more to do with how stacked the Knights are than McCarron. On most teams, he'd have an offensive role.

Not many teams can afford to put an NHL 1st rounder on the 3rd line.

It's the same situation the Drakkar are in, they are so strong that they can afford to put Paquin-Boudreau on the 3rd if he doesn't produce.

If McCarron played for Sherbrooke, I can assure you he'd have plenty of ice and would have a defined role.
yeah I agree to some extent. That said, large part why McCarron doesn't have an offensive role is that he couldn't capitalize on the ice-time he was given in that role. Those minutes went to guys like Marner who outplayed him offensively early in the year.

In a sense I prefer him where he is on the bottom lines. I like the idea of having him play center, although I see him as a winger long term. I prefer having him improve his defensive game than his offensive game at the moment.

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02-16-2014, 11:57 AM
  #116
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Is it me, or MacMillan finally looks bigger ? That's a pleasant surprise for me

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02-16-2014, 12:03 PM
  #117
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Is it me, or MacMillan finally looks bigger ? That's a pleasant surprise for me
Has to be at least 20 lbs. But there's a limit to what a guy can do. Maybe might end up at best at 180-185? Would be fine. Expecting to see him finish his school though.

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02-16-2014, 12:13 PM
  #118
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yeah I agree to some extent. That said, large part why McCarron doesn't have an offensive role is that he couldn't capitalize on the ice-time he was given in that role. Those minutes went to guys like Marner who outplayed him offensively early in the year.

In a sense I prefer him where he is on the bottom lines. I like the idea of having him play center, although I see him as a winger long term. I prefer having him improve his defensive game than his offensive game at the moment.
The difference with the Knights and most other CHL teams is that they can afford to be less patient with players if they don't produce because they have so much firepower. Maybe he would have been dropped to the bottom6 on another team too if he kept on not producing, but the drop came faster with the Knights. Hunter has plenty of cards in his hands if it's not a player's night.

But yeah, there are certainly positives in the fact that he plays for a strong team. He has to earn his ice time, and he can work on different aspects of his game. I don't think anybody saw him become a center

It's been a pleasant surprise so far, his center experience!

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02-16-2014, 01:57 PM
  #119
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if Horvat makes the Canucks, and that will be expected, McCarron will be the top returning center at this point.
As a Knights fan, I wanted to chime in. This comment coming to fruition is highly unlikely.

McCarron's improved a lot of facets about his game lately -- namely, his compete level. He's winning a higher share of battles, getting more pucks to the net, and his defensive game's morphed solidly. More importantly, McCarron's elevated his mental speed by quite a bit. His decision-making's accelerated by a hefty margin.

That said, imporovements should be evaluated under the context of the competition. 45.5% of McCarron's goals were potted against #20 Sarnia. 50% of McCarron's points came against #18, #19, & #20 in the OHL - Kitchener, Belleville, and Sarnia. No doubt McCarron's recent play has been stellar, and he's proved to be a world-beater against this trio, but one would be hard-pressed to find a player at this juncture of the season with this large a sample size and point total who maintains similar extremes on both accounts.

Re- next year, Welychka's locked in to return, and at least 1 of the Ruperts is highly probable. McCarron will be a Top-6 Forward, but the 1C is improbable, IMO. Given what a few of us Knights posters know, I find it unlikely London's plans are to pair him indefinitely with Marner.

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02-16-2014, 02:51 PM
  #120
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As a Knights fan, I wanted to chime in. This comment coming to fruition is highly unlikely.

McCarron's improved a lot of facets about his game lately -- namely, his compete level. He's winning a higher share of battles, getting more pucks to the net, and his defensive game's morphed solidly. More importantly, McCarron's elevated his mental speed by quite a bit. His decision-making's accelerated by a hefty margin.

That said, imporovements should be evaluated under the context of the competition. 45.5% of McCarron's goals were potted against #20 Sarnia. 50% of McCarron's points came against #18, #19, & #20 in the OHL - Kitchener, Belleville, and Sarnia. No doubt McCarron's recent play has been stellar, and he's proved to be a world-beater against this trio, but one would be hard-pressed to find a player at this juncture of the season with this large a sample size and point total who maintains similar extremes on both accounts.

Re- next year, Welychka's locked in to return, and at least 1 of the Ruperts is highly probable. McCarron will be a Top-6 Forward, but the 1C is improbable, IMO. Given what a few of us Knights posters know, I find it unlikely London's plans are to pair him indefinitely with Marner.
Did you read the next line I wrote after the one you quoted?

"Mind you..Marner may be at center next year...regardless, it's shaping up for McCarron to be playing a top six role next season, along with power play and hopefully penalty killing duties."

Anyway - nothing you wrote discounts the possibility of McCarron vying for the top center spot, the opportunity might well be there for him. A lot will depend on how he continues to progress and how much work he does in the summer.

Ryan Rupert was a Leaf draft pick, they aren't going to want him returning for a fifth year in London, time for him to take the next step to pro. Their other top offensicve center besides Horvat has been Tierney, and he'll be gone as well.

I have a feeling Rupert's brother Matt will follow his twin, but even if he doesn't and surprisingly returns for a fifth season...more likely he's playing the wing, same for Welychka if he returns as he's played most of the past month on McCarron's wing. At the very least they would likely be part of a second line in London next season.

Besides - how do you know Welychka is 'locked in'? He had a major improvement this season..maybe he gets a minor pro opportunity, and if he does the Hunters aren't going to try to stop him.

You are also discounting the possibility that over the next 40 games or so, this summer, and the start of his second OHL season that McCarron may not improve. He's already done that during this season..next year he'll go from a raw rookie to a 6-6 OHL vet...I expect there to be a large jump in his offensive confidence...and resultant opportunities, especially when he's playing a top-six role, which even you concede is a distinct possibility.

What I wrote is that with graduations McCarron "will be" the number one center "at this point". In the very next sentence I qualified that by saying Marner may be the number one center.

You chose to focus solely on the first statement and discern that I was predicting without question that McCarron "will be" the number one center all of next season. Read it a little more carefully please.

The way things are set up right now..with him being the third center behind both Horvat and Tierney, who likely won't be back..that makes him the projected number one center going into next season.

I didn't use the word projected..I likely would have if I didn't in the very next sentence suggest that Marner may be the number one center next season as opposed to McCarron when it's all said and done. I at no time insisted that McCarron is the unquestioned number one, although if you look at the way things are headed..he has as good an opportunity as anyone. In a Memorial Cup year Hunter likes McCarron over Matt Rupert, Welychka and Marner at center....odds are it's going to be the same next season.


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02-16-2014, 03:07 PM
  #121
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McCarron still has a lot of hockey to play this year, i can't wait to see him in the PO.

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02-16-2014, 03:10 PM
  #122
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McCarron staying as centre and becoming our very own martin Hanzel would be awesome. But I would be fine to see him become a good 3rd line winger. Can't wait to watch him in the memorial cup.

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02-16-2014, 03:55 PM
  #123
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Am i the only one that would prefer McCarron to stay as a big, tough right winger than being at center?

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02-16-2014, 04:15 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
Did you read the next line I wrote after the one you quoted?

"Mind you..Marner may be at center next year...regardless, it's shaping up for McCarron to be playing a top six role next season, along with power play and hopefully penalty killing duties."

Anyway - nothing you wrote discounts the possibility of McCarron vying for the top center spot, the opportunity might well be there for him. A lot will depend on how he continues to progress and how much work he does in the summer.

Ryan Rupert was a Leaf draft pick, they aren't going to want him returning for a fifth year in London, time for him to take the next step to pro. Their other top offensicve center besides Horvat has been Tierney, and he'll be gone as well.

I have a feeling Rupert's brother Matt will follow his twin, but even if he doesn't and surprisingly returns for a fifth season...more likely he's playing the wing, same for Welychka if he returns as he's played most of the past month on McCarron's wing. At the very least they would likely be part of a second line in London next season.

Besides - how do you know Welychka is 'locked in'? He had a major improvement this season..maybe he gets a minor pro opportunity, and if he does the Hunters aren't going to try to stop him.

You are also discounting the possibility that over the next 40 games or so, this summer, and the start of his second OHL season that McCarron may not improve. He's already done that during this season..next year he'll go from a raw rookie to a 6-6 OHL vet...I expect there to be a large jump in his offensive confidence...and resultant opportunities, especially when he's playing a top-six role, which even you concede is a distinct possibility.
I agree with the bulk of this post. There is a difference in language between your original post and this rebuttal. "will be the top returning Center at this point" [to which I responded] is distinctly different than "the opportunity might well be there for him". I disagree with the former, but second the latter.

Nothing I wrote discounts the possibility of McCarron landing the 1C, but it does decrease the likelihood. Remember the original quote I responded to was "will be the top returning center at this point", which is different than the claim of possibility. Your point that the Ruperts and Welychka have spent more time at Wing the last 3 weeks is correct, but the historical sample size still points the arrow in their direction. You may be right that 2 (or all 3) may make the AHL, but the overwhelming consensus is that at least 2 return. For reference, that topic's been discussed ad nauseum on the Knights' thread and elsewhere, so I disagree with the "if either Rupert surprisingly returns" notion. Given the track records, dynamics (i.e. who's billeted under the coach), London's historical seniority pecking order, etc., I'd be surprised if those returnees are excluded from the 1C considering the precedence.

I in no way discounted McCarron's (past and future) improvements. I elaborated on 5 areas where I've observed marked improvements.

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02-16-2014, 04:25 PM
  #125
Mathletic
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Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
Am i the only one that would prefer McCarron to stay as a big, tough right winger than being at center?
Short term I like the idea of having him play center. Down the road, definately see him more as a winger so he can use his size along the boards.

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