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MLB Discussion Thread Part III: Jeter announces retirement after 2014

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Old
02-16-2014, 04:41 PM
  #701
Callahan Auto
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I don't mind oWAR, depending on the methodology. dWAR, though? I'd much rather use an eye test to assess defense. When using statistics to analyze defense, there's just too many assumptions being made to generate the output, in my opinion. It's part of the reason why dWAR is such a volatile stat on a year-to-year basis. Even Sabre guys that like dWAR prefer to use multi-year sample sizes because of the volatility. To me, that shows a weakness in the computations ability to interpret real-time performance.

Offensive numbers are controlled to the point where you can straight up compare players. Until every single ball in play is tracked and graded, defensive metrics will be too much guesswork to be taken for fact.

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02-16-2014, 04:43 PM
  #702
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Jeter is the better hitter, without question.
There is question though. Jeter played his prime in a much more favorable offensive era than Ripken did. Let's compare their pure hitting numbers from their respective peaks. These are their top 7 full season OPS+ numbers (to correspond with JAWS).

Jeter
153
132
128
127
125
125
125

Ripken
162
146
144
128
124
123
115

Jeter gains the advantage when you take more complete look at the offensive picture. Going by fangraph's all encompassing wRC+ (which accounts for baserunning and other non-hitting offensive abilities) you get:

Jeter
156
138
133
130
130
129
129
Extra - 128, 125, 117, 117, 116, 110, 109


Ripken
154
146
146
127
124
123
109

So if you put full stock in the advanced stats you get the following conclusions: Ripken was a better hitter at his peak, but Jeter's all around offensive game puts them as basically even and gives Jeter a decided edge in longevity. Granted, the same methodology that gives Jeter this advantage also gives Ripken a massive one on the fielding side.

Quick note for people who don't understand why the defensive numbers hate Jeter so much - Range is much, much, much more important than not making errors. Simply put, if player A gets to 5 balls and converts all five of them into outs and player B gets to 10 balls and converts 8 of them into outs, then player B is giving you more defensive value. Player A may not be getting errors, but he's still allowing more baserunners than player B. Errors happen way less frequently than balls getting hit to places where a limited defensive shortstop like Jeter can't reach them.

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02-16-2014, 04:54 PM
  #703
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Originally Posted by Callahan Auto View Post
I don't mind oWAR, depending on the methodology. dWAR, though? I'd much rather use an eye test to assess defense. When using statistics to analyze defense, there's just too many assumptions being made to generate the output, in my opinion. It's part of the reason why dWAR is such a volatile stat on a year-to-year basis. Even Sabre guys that like dWAR prefer to use multi-year sample sizes because of the volatility. To me, that shows a weakness in the computations ability to interpret real-time performance.

Offensive numbers are controlled to the point where you can straight up compare players. Until every single ball in play is tracked and graded, defensive metrics will be too much guesswork to be taken for fact.
But your eye can play tricks on you. Errors tend to stick in people's minds a lot more than ground balls that just make it past a diving Jeter. It's true that the defensive metrics require big error bars, but over the course of a career you easily get a large enough sample size to make an accurate reading.

Tom Tango writes:

"I’m looking at Derek Jeter, for his career (through 2011). If I just look at the basics, we see the following:

1. The average SS made 12.2% outs per BIP

2. If we only look at the batters his faced, but when Jeter did not play SS (i.e., that means any SS in the league that those batters ever came across in their careers), those SS made an out on 12.1% outs per BIP. Conclusion: Jeter’s batters faced were average (which you’d expect given such a huge career opportunity).

3. His pitchers, whether with his backups or on other teams, had their SS make 12.2% outs per BIP. Conclusion: he’s had average pitchers for SS.

4. His parks has had 12.2% outs per BIP.

5. If we look at the batted ball codes from Retrosheet, the expected out rate is 12.2%.

So, we can reasonably conclude that the identify of his batters, pitchers, park are not biased, and the Retrosheet data doesn’t have any weird distributions (based on batted ball type).

6. We are then left to ask why does Derek Jeter only convert 11.3% of his BIP into outs, for his career."

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...s_position/#63

http://grantland.com/features/the-tr...jeter-defense/


Last edited by Zil: 02-21-2014 at 06:54 AM.
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Old
02-16-2014, 05:34 PM
  #704
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Somehow Jeter managed to post his best defensive season in 2009. It doesn't make any sense. Defensive metrics tend to be all over the place with a lot of guys.

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02-16-2014, 05:50 PM
  #705
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I wouldn't doubt that Ripken was a better natural fielder but he was also a guy that didn't move that well as a shortstop and I'm extremely skeptical to accept defensive metric readings for players who played 10+ years ago. Jeter's prime was square in the middle of guys roiding like crazy so I think it's safe to assume that he was forced to field balls that were hit harder. Where things even out is hard to say.
I'd say Jeter was a slightly above average defensive shortstop in his prime and that Ripken was a good to great defender.
This was one point I never got the chance to make, and why I think this was almost a symantic argument.
I always thought of Ripken primarily as a 'shifted' 3rd baseman!
If Im not mistaken, he came up playing 3rd, and I know he moved over towards the end of his career.
He was also built a heckuva lot more like a power corner than a SS.
But he was such a focal point for the O's, and SS is a far busier position, so it made sense for them, and he certainly handled it fine.
But as far as playing the position defensively, Derek Jeter has nothing to feel bad about. In his prime he made all the plays you could ever ask for, and the guy was pure money at the plate in a big spot.
Yeah Id choose Ripken for one at bat with the game on the line, but Derek Jeter was a fantastic, fantastic player, one any team would cream themselves to have.

Ive also always admired how Jeter handled himself off the field, especially in this Twitter world. Im quite sure the Yankees protected their investment and got at least a few stories swept under the rug, but crazy stuff happens when athletes reach that Michael Jordan level.
That being said, I dont like this whole farewell tour idea, as stated; just like I didnt like steriods or Mark McGuire's family on the field of 100 other things they've done the last decade or so to basically line the owners pockets at the expense of the tradition of the game. But then they didnt ask me what i thought.
It's a business, first, foremost, and always.

Anyway, that's about as nice as I can bring myself to be when it comes to the Yanks, and concludes my thoughts on the subject haha....


Last edited by Todd Harvey: 02-16-2014 at 05:56 PM.
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Old
02-16-2014, 06:05 PM
  #706
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The gold gloves: Jeter was an excellent defensive SS for much of his career. Sure-handed, good range (which later slipped significantly) and always made the clutch play. Going back on a flare, into the stands on a pop-up, into the hole for a sizzling grounder - he was fantastic. Not as strong going to his left, but that's quibbling. Him being a "subpar" defensive player is a recent, revisionist creation. He had lost a step, won a gold glove late in his career and suddenly it became popular to apply that filter on all his previous defensive accomplishments. Silliness..

Each to their own but I disagree with most of this post. Jeter never had a good range. That was that 1 thing stopping him from becoming very good defensively. He isn't horrible or a liability like some haters would suggest but he isn't excellent either. Average is probably the best word to describe Jeter's fielding.

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02-16-2014, 06:10 PM
  #707
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Defensive metrics aren't perfect by any means and have to be taken with a grain of salt.

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Old
02-19-2014, 05:49 PM
  #708
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defensive metrics smetrics, I won't say Jeter has ever been the best SS defensively, but he's been more than adequate and he's helped deliver 5 WS championships playing the position, anyone would take that

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02-19-2014, 06:28 PM
  #709
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defensive metrics smetrics, I won't say Jeter has ever been the best SS defensively, but he's been more than adequate and he's helped deliver 5 WS championships playing the position, anyone would take that
That's not an argument. Jeter's a legitimate HoF guy, but there's a reason his bWAR totals are nearly indistinguishable from Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, and Ernie Banks. The only thing that separates Jeter from those guys is that he had the good fortune to spend his career on stacked teams. People can shout about steroids all they want, but Rodriguez accumulated almost as much bWAR in his eight years at shortstop as Jeter has in his entire career. Again, he's a slam dunk HoF player, but the idea that Jeter's a Mays/Ruth/Williams/Mantle/etc level inner circle guy is nuts.

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02-19-2014, 07:19 PM
  #710
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Originally Posted by Zil View Post
OPS+, wRC, etc, snip
If you just compare their peaks, sure. For a guylike Jeter, though, half of why he's so revered is that he's been so good for so long.

Ripken has about a handful more than a season's worth of PA's on Jeter right now, but has a 12 point less wRC+. If you cut out Ripken's abysmal last season you get a closer discrepancy, but Jeter still edges him out.

From 1992 to 2001, Rip only had 2 seasons of above league average hitting. From 2004 to 2012, Jeter only had one season of BELOW league average hitting. That's consistent greatness, and why Jeets manages to edge out Rip without much debate, IMO.

I agree with you on every other aspect of this discussion, but I think Jeter is clearly the superior offensive player.

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02-19-2014, 07:31 PM
  #711
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Each to their own but I disagree with most of this post. Jeter never had a good range. That was that 1 thing stopping him from becoming very good defensively. He isn't horrible or a liability like some haters would suggest but he isn't excellent either. Average is probably the best word to describe Jeter's fielding.
In the first half of his career, I thought he had fantastic range into the hole and okay range up the middle - hence "good" range. In the second half of his career, I agree that he declined and had mediocre range overall.

(This is all based purely on my viewings, and no metrics of any kind.)

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02-19-2014, 07:50 PM
  #712
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All i care about:

Colon pitching to a 3 ERA till July 25. Trade him for the best available OF prospect that's nearly to the MLB.

Trade Chris Young to a Dilson Herrera + Vic Black return.

Colon isn't gonna be a Met past this year. He knows that. No one wanted to give him the 2nd year. The Mets must have told him they'd give him the 2nd year to guarantee that salary, but that he'd likely be traded before the start of next season.

2015 and 2016 should be the years we strive to break through.

Rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and Montero.
Bullpen of Parnell, Black, DeGrom, a few vets and homegrown players to round out the rest.

The OF prospect should slot in next year with our current group of young core. Dom Smith fits in 2016. Herrera fits in 2016. D'arnaud moving forward. Lagares could be a very useful CF if his hitting develops slightly more. I'm not sold on Puello but I think Nimmo will be great when he finally bulks up and stays healthy. He's slotted at 2016 too.

Sign Hanley next year. We should be set.

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02-19-2014, 08:05 PM
  #713
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Sign Hanley next year. We should be set.
Uh... either he's signing an extension with the Dodgers or he's going to head into free agency at the perfect time to capitalize on an epic bidding war between them and the Yankees. There's absolutely no way the Wilpons have the stones to outbid those two teams.

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02-20-2014, 03:04 AM
  #714
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
If you just compare their peaks, sure. For a guylike Jeter, though, half of why he's so revered is that he's been so good for so long.

Ripken has about a handful more than a season's worth of PA's on Jeter right now, but has a 12 point less wRC+. If you cut out Ripken's abysmal last season you get a closer discrepancy, but Jeter still edges him out.

From 1992 to 2001, Rip only had 2 seasons of above league average hitting. From 2004 to 2012, Jeter only had one season of BELOW league average hitting. That's consistent greatness, and why Jeets manages to edge out Rip without much debate, IMO.

I agree with you on every other aspect of this discussion, but I think Jeter is clearly the superior offensive player.



Stop talking rubbish. He's a glorified singles hitter.

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02-20-2014, 06:57 PM
  #715
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He deserved 09 Gold Glove. He had no business winning in 05, 06 and 10 because he had a negative UZR/150. There were better candidates in 04.

Like 'stan the caddy' said, Jeter is sure-handed and has a quick release. Jeter's problem has always been getting to the ball. Always had a questionable range.
Ok so even if we just take 2009 and maybe 2004, a guy who won a Gold Glove and was in the discussion for another one is a better than average fielder.

It's not as bad as it's made out to be is my point. People act like he's cheese defensively. Not so much here with people who saw him play, but there's alot of it on the main boards.

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02-20-2014, 09:07 PM
  #716
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Ok so even if we just take 2009 and maybe 2004, a guy who won a Gold Glove and was in the discussion for another one is a better than average fielder.

It's not as bad as it's made out to be is my point. People act like he's cheese defensively. Not so much here with people who saw him play, but there's alot of it on the main boards.
When you look at the defensive metrics 2009 seems like an outlier. Also SS wasn't deep defensively in AL in mid 00s.

Bad is an overreaction by those people. Average is probably the best term to describe him defensively. It's shame that the range hurt him so much because he could've been above average/very good defensively with that quick release and being sure-handed.

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02-21-2014, 06:57 AM
  #717
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When you look at the defensive metrics 2009 seems like an outlier. Also SS wasn't deep defensively in AL in mid 00s.

Bad is an overreaction by those people. Average is probably the best term to describe him defensively. It's shame that the range hurt him so much because he could've been above average/very good defensively with that quick release and being sure-handed.
The data really doesn't support your claim. Again, as Tom Tango posits: "Why does Derek Jeter only convert 11.3% of his BIP into outs, for his career.... I have him with 61745 BIP. One SD is 80 outs (or .0013 outs per BIP). He’s 7 SD from the mean."

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...s_position/#63

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02-22-2014, 04:50 AM
  #718
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It's just a difference of opinion. Both Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky -- the greatest athletes in the history of their respective sport -- never announced they were retiring BEFORE the season started.

In fact, Jordan did it twice.

Mantle -- retired after the season
Dimaggio -- retired after the season
Ruth -- retired mid-season

The idea that Jeter needs 9 months of celebrations on some farewell tour in order for fans/players to show their appreciation is the purest form of BS you'll ever find.

It was a mutual decision between the Yankees and Jeter to recoup as much as they can off his retirement.

The adulation and place in history happens AFTER they retire. It shouldnt happen while they are playing over the course of an entire season.

By announcing he was retiring at season's end, Rivera opened up the vault. Jeter saw what Rivera got, and wants his cake.

$253 million in salary since becoming a pro in 1995.
Sports and media are different now. I also think that it's very fair that many players don't know for sure whether it's their last year. I think it's very logical that a guy plans on playing another 2-3 years finds that he breaks down, or a guy just isn't sure or can't pull the trigger.

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02-22-2014, 04:54 AM
  #719
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I would sign steven drew to a five year deal until Wade develops.
That's smart… spring training has started and NO team has given him a 3 year deal, and you want to give him 5? Drew is a good player, but Jeter is better right now than he is..

Also baseball is a complete crapshoot.. counting on Wade is like counting on Buchnevich to replace Nash.

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02-22-2014, 05:02 AM
  #720
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And Gretzky didnt? Jordan didnt? Mantle? Ruth? Dimaggio? Mattingly?

I'm a Yankees fan, and I have been for a long time. There is absolutely no justification for a 9-month farewell tour.

"Jeter's last at bat with partly cloudy skies and a two-run deficit"

"Jeter's last at-bat against Jose Valverde while he wears green-rimmed glasses"

"This is the last time we'll see Jeter DH on t-shirt giveaway day"

Mentally preparing myself.
This is 2014.. it was a different world back then. Why weren't Ruth, Dimaggio, Mantle getting $250 million contracts?

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02-22-2014, 05:11 AM
  #721
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I'd have Jeter as the 3rd best SS of all time behind Wagner and Ripken.

Not including A-Rod.
I just can't count Wagner… it was a completely different game with a much smaller field of players. However, ARod was def a better player than Jeter - longevity and reputation is for someone else...

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02-22-2014, 10:35 PM
  #722
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Andrew Bailey to Yankees on a minor league deal. Should be ready to pitch by mid-late May.

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02-23-2014, 12:47 PM
  #723
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Gardner on verge of signing 4-year, $52 million deal w/ Yankees. Includes 5th year club option for $12.5M or $2M buyout. Deal starts in 2015

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02-23-2014, 01:10 PM
  #724
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Same player as Ellsbury.. 100M less, think about that...

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Old
02-23-2014, 01:12 PM
  #725
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Yeah, that's a helluva deal for the Yankees. Glad to have him locked up. Team MVP besides Cano last yr.

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