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Justin Schultz's extension

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Old
02-26-2014, 11:29 AM
  #26
russ99
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His type of player (elite puckmover) is:

1) At a premium in todays' NHL

2) Slow to develop, and going with NCAA over the Juniors/AHL route did him no favors on the ice.

The other issue is how we acquired him sets the table for future contract negotiations. We've already been through one UFA-style negotiation with him.

I'd like to see the Oilers get creative on his contract. Maybe give him a 4 year escalating deal starting at $3M and ending at $6M.

Plus it seems obvious that we really need better players - both forwards and defensemen - to develop him to his potential.

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02-26-2014, 11:33 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
i think if schultz shows in the last 20 games anything close to what we saw in the ahl last year then long term him.
That's my thinking as well. The issue is the dollar figure. I have no issue with a 5 year, $25M deal if he continues like he has. If he doesn't progress and stays as is, he is probably overpaid by $1M-$1.5M, but if he can improve some, I think it is a solid contract. I just don't see him becoming an elite offensive guy, or a great 2-way guy, so $6M and over I think will always be an overpayment. Young D are so hard to predict though.

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02-26-2014, 11:36 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99 View Post
His type of player (elite puckmover) is:

1) At a premium in todays' NHL

2) Slow to develop, and going with NCAA over the Juniors/AHL route did him no favors on the ice.

The other issue is how we acquired him sets the table for future contract negotiations. We've already been through one UFA-style negotiation with him.

I'd like to see the Oilers get creative on his contract. Maybe give him a 4 year escalating deal starting at $3M and ending at $6M.

Plus it seems obvious that we really need better players - both forwards and defensemen - to develop him to his potential.
I don't know what he's exactly made because of bonuses, but one of the reasons he came here was because of opportunity to make money on his 2nd deal. Maybe we give him a good chunk of coin in year one?

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02-26-2014, 11:38 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
I don't know what he's exactly made because of bonuses, but one of the reasons he came here was because of opportunity to make money on his 2nd deal. Maybe we give him a good chunk of coin in year one?
that and it was a perfect spot for him to step right in and not have to play in the ahl. and it wasnt anahiem

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02-26-2014, 11:43 AM
  #30
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Very hard to predict because he is a bit older and has had a rougher time adjusting to the NHL. But that is most likely because he was thrown to the wolves on a bad defensive team

He has consistanly put up decent points even with playing bad defensively, and not looking super dangerous offensively like he did in the AHL

Right not he is worth 3 mil for the next 2 seasons, and probably should get a bridge contract. The problem is, if he continues to progress and put up more and more points, he could be asking for 6 mil in 2 years (better play + rising cap)

I would be ok with offering a risky contract which would be 4.75 * 5-6 years. Right now its an overpayment by about 1.5 million for 1 or 2 years, would be fair value for 2 years, and then could potentially be great value in the future when the cap is higher and comparables are making 6 - 6.5 million

I think his agent would take it as its guartneed money for a good term

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02-26-2014, 11:47 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
i disagree completely, schultz has looked a bit out of sorts this year at times but when he is on his game he is an amazing player. A bridge contract will probably come back to kick us in the hole when he puts up 60pts from the back end just like Montreal is getting hacked when subbans next contract comes up. Use this weak season to lure Schultz into a 6 year 4.5 mil deal and reap the benefits for 4/6 years on that deal. we have the cap space to make a gamble here. if we bridge him at 2.5 for 2 and he lights it up like he did in the ahl we are looking in the 7-8M range to resign him.

also if we can lock him into 4.5 for 6 and he becomes elite then the d cap is set for Nurse/Marincin etc as well.
Last time we did that, we locked up Gilbert long term at an overpayment of what he eventually became. And Nurse and Marincin won't go for 4.5 million if they turn out elite as well, so I don't get that point at all.

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02-26-2014, 11:48 AM
  #32
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This is going to be an interesting contract, if he keeps trending like he has these last 20 games it's pretty easy to sign him to good term and money now and not have to overpay at the end of bridge contract like Montreal is going to have to with subban, but if he doesn't and we pay him money on long term we have to deal with it. Tough call for Mact

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02-26-2014, 12:03 PM
  #33
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To me there are three options... each with their advantages:

1) Bridge: 3.5 over 2 years
Pros: cheap now, we get to demo him longer, at the end we'd still have his RFA rights (correct?)
Cons: Good chance he's asking for 6+ on a longer term deal

2) The Gilbert: 4.5 x 4 years
Pros: we get a cheaper price for a few more years, some cost certainty in years 3 & 4 when we might need that money to bring in UFA before the kids are all finished their $6M deals
Cons: he'll be up only one year before Eberle and 2 before Hall (correct?)... so that $6M cap won't be a valid argument anymore. Everyone will know at least one of those two is going to get more.

3) 5.5 Long Term:
Pros: if he turns out, it's a bargain
Cons: it's a lot of money now, it provides no incentive, it could be an overpayment long term if he "Gilberts" or "Potis" on us... no way he signs for less than $5M

I think I'd opt for option 2. My worry is that if we are capstrung in years 4, 5 & 6 of Hall/Ebs deals, we'll be disbanding before we have real success. Nuge and Yak will still be locked up for several years when Schultz comes up... should help us with comps. If not, and Schultz is deemed worth it... Bye Bye Yak (if that hasn't happened already)

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02-26-2014, 12:11 PM
  #34
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I'd say 2 years, 3 years or 5+ years are the only options.

A 4 year contract would take him to UFA status and that'd be a mistake.

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02-26-2014, 12:17 PM
  #35
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The more I think about it the more I like the idea of a long term signing.

We've already gambled on 3 players and honestly I think Eberle is the only one who might not be worth the money by the end of their terms.

Shultz's value is very low right now and his potential is still very far up there. I think you can lock him up long term for considerably less than the wonder kids and have him part of the "plan' for what is hopefully a deep play off run in 5 yearsish.

I no longer believe the Oilers are even remotely close to making the playoffs and we all know getting a FA top 4 D-man here in Edmonton is next to impossible.

May as well stick to the plan and gamble that he is a key component.

Not like we can replace what he bring to our team anyways.

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02-26-2014, 12:28 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bucks_oil View Post
To me there are three options... each with their advantages:

1) Bridge: 3.5 over 2 years
Pros: cheap now, we get to demo him longer, at the end we'd still have his RFA rights (correct?)
Cons: Good chance he's asking for 6+ on a longer term deal

2) The Gilbert: 4.5 x 4 years
Pros: we get a cheaper price for a few more years, some cost certainty in years 3 & 4 when we might need that money to bring in UFA before the kids are all finished their $6M deals
Cons: he'll be up only one year before Eberle and 2 before Hall (correct?)... so that $6M cap won't be a valid argument anymore. Everyone will know at least one of those two is going to get more.

3) 5.5 Long Term:
Pros: if he turns out, it's a bargain
Cons: it's a lot of money now, it provides no incentive, it could be an overpayment long term if he "Gilberts" or "Potis" on us... no way he signs for less than $5M
1) for me... this is the odd case I would argue for a bridge and I will tell you why...

To improve right away we need top FAs or acquisitions to fill holes today... if we do not have the cap space to accommodate a Weber Letang Girardi Edler on D and a PF up front it will not matter what Schultzy is worth in two years... he will want out any way

Save ourselves $1.5-2M right now for further flexibility... spend to the cap... and as it rises with revenues in '15 and '16 the room will be there to sign him at the $6M+ he might be worth...

On that note... yes we need to know if he is worth it... like you I believe he is an RFA in two years time... so there is still an element of cost control... if he ends up out of our price range well I would rather give him up than Hall or RNH or as you say... and as an RFA we are of course entitled to compensation... so we lose nothing even if we lose him

How ever Schultzy obviously likes life here... he enjoys being with the other kids... I have to wonder if he might be okay with a 5 year deal at $4.25-4.5... both parties get what they want... cost control and term and security... Schultz is within striking distance of his pals in earning power... whereas on a bridge he does not hold the same stature financially... he is also a smart kid... that five years will mean he can start to build a life here and not be afraid of an offer sheet trade in two years time...

It will take some firm work from MacT... but I think he is up to the challenge...

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Old
02-26-2014, 12:51 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
The more I think about it the more I like the idea of a long term signing.

We've already gambled on 3 players and honestly I think Eberle is the only one who might not be worth the money by the end of their terms.

Shultz's value is very low right now and his potential is still very far up there. I think you can lock him up long term for considerably less than the wonder kids and have him part of the "plan' for what is hopefully a deep play off run in 5 yearsish.

I no longer believe the Oilers are even remotely close to making the playoffs and we all know getting a FA top 4 D-man here in Edmonton is next to impossible.

May as well stick to the plan and gamble that he is a key component.

Not like we can replace what he bring to our team anyways.
See, I don't understand how he ISN'T worth it. I mean, look at their overall point totals:

Jordan Eberle 254GM 87G 114A 201Pts = PPG 0.79

Taylor Hall 224GM 85G 116A 201Pts = PPG 0.89

RNH 160GM 37G 82A 119Pts = PPG 0.74

To say Eberle doesn't deserve 6M a year means RNH doesn't deserve it too Points-wise. I know everyone is all like "We need to be BIGGER" but in no way is Eberle a overrated player.

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02-26-2014, 01:05 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Fixed to Ruin View Post
If i was Justin Schultz agent, i would advise against this.
Why? Shattenkirk signed for less and is the better player.. Same goes for Fowler and Carlson (4.0M per). Alzner makes 2.8M per
For what J.Schultz brings (will bring) to the organization 4.5M is more than his value.

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Old
02-26-2014, 01:07 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by LTIR View Post
Why? Shattenkirk signed for less and is the better player.. Same goes for Fowler and Carlson (4.0M per). Alzner makes 2.8M per
For what J.Schultz brings (will bring) to the organization 4.5M is more than his value.
Exactly look at other comparables around the league. If he gets more then Shattenkirk it would be an absolute travesty.

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02-26-2014, 01:19 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Fixed to Ruin View Post
If i was Justin Schultz agent, i would advise against this.
I think an agent would promote a long contract so they can bank on their commish. Likely same total in the end.

Schultz is not close to PK Subban and never will be.

4 mil 6 years and Schultz should be very pleased.

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Old
02-26-2014, 01:25 PM
  #41
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4M x 4 should be good for both sides.. Oilers get him at decent cap hit for long enough term. J.Schultz gets 4M per and becomes a UFA just as he enters his prime.

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02-26-2014, 01:40 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Agron View Post
6 years 6m.
If you don't use the smiley, people will think you are...

Unless you are serious. If you are serious...I would recommend a full "Hell no." from MacT.

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Old
02-26-2014, 01:45 PM
  #43
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I definitely disagree with a bridge contract on Schultz.

If they see his progression (in terms of worth in $) as going like this:

Year - Value
1 - 1.5
2 - 3
3 - 5
4 - 5
5 - 6.5
6 - 6.5
AVG:

then why sign him to a 2 year deal for $2.5M just to sign him to a 4+ year deal afterwards at $5.75M/year+ when you can get him for 6 years at $4.5M/year right from the start?

Even if his actual value in years 4-7 is closer to:

4 - 3
5 - 4
6 - 4
7 - 4

Yeah, you could save $500K or so on his overall cap hit if he doesn't pan out as expected, but you can get him at a bargain of close to $2M a year against the cap if he does. That's not even taking into account the value of a $4M defenseman today and what that same player will be signing for 2 years from now.

The only argument for a bridge deal that I can see would be if we were tight against the cap this year and next, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

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Old
02-26-2014, 01:52 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I definitely disagree with a bridge contract on Schultz.

If they see his progression (in terms of worth in $) as going like this:

Year - Value
1 - 1.5
2 - 3
3 - 5
4 - 5
5 - 6.5
6 - 6.5
AVG:

then why sign him to a 2 year deal for $2.5M just to sign him to a 4+ year deal afterwards at $5.75M/year+ when you can get him for 6 years at $4.5M/year right from the start?

Even if his actual value in years 4-7 is closer to:

4 - 3
5 - 4
6 - 4
7 - 4

Yeah, you could save $500K or so on his overall cap hit if he doesn't pan out as expected, but you can get him at a bargain of close to $2M a year against the cap if he does. That's not even taking into account the value of a $4M defenseman today and what that same player will be signing for 2 years from now.

The only argument for a bridge deal that I can see would be if we were tight against the cap this year and next, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
another argument against the bridge contract is you then have a contract expiring in 2 years right around the time klefbom/marincin need new deals

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02-26-2014, 01:58 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
another argument against the bridge contract is you then have a contract expiring in 2 years right around the time klefbom/marincin need new deals
I'm less worried about their contracts as I would be in the risk/reward of Schultz's deal itself, and our ability to use the cap space we have in the immediate future to help us with the potential cap issues we might have down the line.

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02-26-2014, 02:00 PM
  #46
The Big Unit
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I don't believe you can give Schultz anything but a bridge contract. He hasn't earned big money yet. If he outperforms the contract you give him the 6M the other young guys are getting and tell him it's the cost of being on a winning team.

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Old
02-26-2014, 02:08 PM
  #47
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There's no way Schultz is only getting 3 mill per even on a bridge deal, people are dreaming. For the minutes he's playing and his offensive upside alone he'll be getting 4-5 mill I'd say.

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Old
02-26-2014, 02:11 PM
  #48
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Anything more than the PK bridge contract and you have the right to laugh.

He doesn't deserve anything more.

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02-26-2014, 02:23 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LTIR View Post
Why? Shattenkirk signed for less and is the better player.. Same goes for Fowler and Carlson (4.0M per). Alzner makes 2.8M per
For what J.Schultz brings (will bring) to the organization 4.5M is more than his value.
Fowler had a really bad year last season so i can see performance lowering his value.

Shattenkirk could easily get more, i'm going to assume that he took a pay cut to stay with the Blues and play on a cup contender. Again.. assuming is the key word here.

Carlson is a prime example of why you would want a bridge deal if you were in his shoes. With the cap going up and his very good play this season, Washington is getting a top defenseman at a discount price. He could easily get 6 million as a free agent this summer. If not more if it was a long term deal. IMO, he's leaving 2 million on the table every year until that contract is over. Over 4-5 years that's 8 to 10 million. If i was an agent i would want 10% of that extra 10 million.

Same goes for Alzner.

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02-26-2014, 02:27 PM
  #50
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Anything more than the PK bridge contract and you have the right to laugh.

He doesn't deserve anything more.

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