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Justin Schultz's extension

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Old
02-26-2014, 02:44 PM
  #51
dyzfunctioned
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer View Post
See, I don't understand how he ISN'T worth it. I mean, look at their overall point totals:

Jordan Eberle 254GM 87G 114A 201Pts = PPG 0.79

Taylor Hall 224GM 85G 116A 201Pts = PPG 0.89

RNH 160GM 37G 82A 119Pts = PPG 0.74

To say Eberle doesn't deserve 6M a year means RNH doesn't deserve it too Points-wise. I know everyone is all like "We need to be BIGGER" but in no way is Eberle a overrated player.
I can't speak for everyone, but it's probably due to a combination of upside and when the contracts were signed.

Eberle signed that contract at the best possible time for him, and the worst possible time for the Oilers - his value was at its highest after posting 76 points in 78 games while shooting at 18.9%. Outside of that season he's shot at 11.4%, 12.0% and 12.2%, an average of 11.9% which is certainly a whole lot more reasonable than 18.9%. At this percentage he would have only recorded 63 points in 76 games during the 2011-12 season. Removing that season, he's put up 0.71 points per game or about 58 points per 82 games. Over the past two seasons he's put up 0.77 points per game or 63 points per 82 games which is a bit better, but maybe not a steal at $6M long term.

It's also worth noting he's almost 24 while Taylor Hall is 22 and RNH is just about to turn 21, so Eberle is way further ahead in his development. Eberle was 21 in his first NHL season and put up 43 points in 69 games (0.62 ppg) - RNH is in his 21 year old season and has 43 points in 58 games so far (0.74 ppg) and Hall put up 50 points in 45 games in his 21 year old season (1.11 ppg).

Furthermore, given junior production and their track record in the early NHL years, it's pretty safe to assume (and widely agreed upon) that Hall and RNH have higher upside than Eberle.

So in summary:

1) Eberle signed his contract at the worst time for the organization, after what may be his career season. Averages show that it's more likely he will be a 60-70 point player most years than a point per game one.

2) Eberle's production at the same age, both in junior and in the NHL (0.62 vs. 0.74 vs. 1.11 at age 21) show that it's very unlikely that he is on the same level talent wise and that he has a lower upside.

Eberle isn't really one of the "kids" - he's turning 24 and is 2 years older than Hall and 3 years older than RNH.

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Old
02-26-2014, 02:50 PM
  #52
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6m x7 cmon downnnn

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Old
02-26-2014, 03:24 PM
  #53
Aerchon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paralyzer View Post
See, I don't understand how he ISN'T worth it. I mean, look at their overall point totals:

Jordan Eberle 254GM 87G 114A 201Pts = PPG 0.79

Taylor Hall 224GM 85G 116A 201Pts = PPG 0.89

RNH 160GM 37G 82A 119Pts = PPG 0.74

To say Eberle doesn't deserve 6M a year means RNH doesn't deserve it too Points-wise. I know everyone is all like "We need to be BIGGER" but in no way is Eberle a overrated player.
I used the word might.

His 76 point season he was amazing. All star.

He has slightly improved defensively but taken a big step back offensively each of the last 2 seasons.

Lets be honest here. Eberle looks like a shadow of himself offensively the last 2 years. I never would have thought he was a get his contract and give up kind of player but of the big three signed to those deals he certainly seems to have dropped the most.

RNH is improving slower than I thought but still improving.

Hall is worse this year than last but still looks pretty damn good.

Eberle this year and last year just hasn't looked dangerous most nights and seems to have lost a step.

That's not to say he sucks. He has just not played as well as he has. If he continues to decline I think he "might" not be worth his contract when all is said and done.

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02-26-2014, 03:27 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
I don't believe you can give Schultz anything but a bridge contract. He hasn't earned big money yet. If he outperforms the contract you give him the 6M the other young guys are getting and tell him it's the cost of being on a winning team.
And his agent replies 7.5 million because that's the cost of a bridge contract and a 78 million dollar cap

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02-26-2014, 03:32 PM
  #55
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Honestly I'm at the point where I'd do the bridge and if J.Schultz becomes good enough to command top 10 money I'd be overwhelmed with joy.

Why you might ask. Quite simple, it would mean that we actually have someone that is worth the big bucks and we aren't banking on said player to hit his potential based on his contract.

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02-26-2014, 04:04 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Honestly I'm at the point where I'd do the bridge and if J.Schultz becomes good enough to command top 10 money I'd be overwhelmed with joy.

Why you might ask. Quite simple, it would mean that we actually have someone that is worth the big bucks and we aren't banking on said player to hit his potential based on his contract.
True.

But even with the cap going up, with as many high end prospects as we have gathered, gambling that they will meet potential could be the difference of winning a cup or bouncing in the first round.

Or maybe more realistically making the playoffs at all.

Cap management is very important and will continue to be.

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02-26-2014, 04:08 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
I used the word might.

His 76 point season he was amazing. All star.

He has slightly improved defensively but taken a big step back offensively each of the last 2 seasons.

Lets be honest here. Eberle looks like a shadow of himself offensively the last 2 years. I never would have thought he was a get his contract and give up kind of player but of the big three signed to those deals he certainly seems to have dropped the most.

RNH is improving slower than I thought but still improving.

Hall is worse this year than last but still looks pretty damn good.

Eberle this year and last year just hasn't looked dangerous most nights and seems to have lost a step.

That's not to say he sucks. He has just not played as well as he has. If he continues to decline I think he "might" not be worth his contract when all is said and done.
They are all playing worse this team and I don't think it's cause they have regressed. Look at Hemsky isn't really putting up points or scoring at all. Boom, in come Olympics and he is a legitimate threat every time he was on the ice. What it feels like is a complete lack of effort from all players involved. Eberle, Nuge and Hall could easily be as good or better as last year but it just doesn't seem like they are trying.

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02-26-2014, 04:10 PM
  #58
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Eberle at 6m is a slight overpayment for the next 2 years. But with the cap rising, 6m deals will be come more and more common and pretty soon players of Gagners/Hodgsons caliber (50 point players) will be getting 6m, and Eberles deal will look better and better

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02-26-2014, 04:10 PM
  #59
joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
True.

But even with the cap going up, with as many high end prospects as we have gathered, gambling that they will meet potential could be the difference of winning a cup or bouncing in the first round.

Or maybe more realistically making the playoffs at all.

Cap management is very important and will continue to be.
We seemed to have been worry about cap management all this time and look where it got us. At some point we can't gamble with everyone and need to see more out of guys before we sign them to 30+mil contracts.

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02-26-2014, 04:12 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Eberle at 6m is a slight overpayment for the next 2 years. But with the cap rising, 6m deals will be come more and more common and pretty soon players of Gagners/Hodgsons caliber (50 point players) will be getting 6m, and Eberles deal will look better and better
I've also been hearing about the rising cap making contracts look better ever sense we signed Horcoff.

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02-26-2014, 04:24 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Eberle at 6m is a slight overpayment for the next 2 years. But with the cap rising, 6m deals will be come more and more common and pretty soon players of Gagners/Hodgsons caliber (50 point players) will be getting 6m, and Eberles deal will look better and better
I dunno how much higher the cap is going to go over the 70M mark with the canadian dollar coming down. Could see it stabilizing right around where it will be for next season for a few years or until the dollar goes back up.

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02-26-2014, 05:51 PM
  #62
Aerchon
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
I've also been hearing about the rising cap making contracts look better ever sense we signed Horcoff.
Horcoff turned out to be a disaster. Whether injuries or a complete melt down who knows why but his play was borderline AHL material most of his time after he got that contract. Too much to start with and made even worse as time went on.

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02-26-2014, 05:54 PM
  #63
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This is one of the hardest to figure for me.

I'm fine with a bridge contract, and if he plays to a max future contract, so be it.

Something like $4.0m then $4.5m with bonuses? More than he's worth but given the market and the cap wouldn't be insane.

I also think we need to try to hold onto puck-moving defencemen. I realize that's "don't eat the yellow snow" advice, but if he becomes something like Keith Yandle for us, that's pretty valuable.

If you look at the number of truly great defencemen around the league, it's half-2/3 of Sweden's Olympic team, all of Canada's, and half of the US team.

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02-26-2014, 07:58 PM
  #64
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I'd skip the bridge deal with him. It's a risk but he's a very smart player. Why have enough faith in RNH to skip the bridge deal but not Schultz?

If you have faith in Schultz, then the smart move is to skip the bridge deal and use that cap to either get a great supporting cast or to have a trading advantage in being able to retain salary.

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02-26-2014, 08:01 PM
  #65
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02-26-2014, 08:01 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Mr Positive View Post
I'd skip the bridge deal with him. It's a risk but he's a very smart player. Why have enough faith in RNH to skip the bridge deal but not Schultz?

If you have faith in Schultz, then the smart move is to skip the bridge deal and use that cap to either get a great supporting cast or to have a trading advantage in being able to retain salary.
RNH >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> J. Schultz

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02-26-2014, 08:02 PM
  #67
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^ I'm not suggesting we pay Schultz the same as RNH btw

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02-26-2014, 08:05 PM
  #68
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Imagine if someone offer sheets Schultz. Most likely two first-round picks, one second rounder, and one third.
http://proicehockey.about.com/od/nhl...e_agents_2.htm

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02-26-2014, 08:09 PM
  #69
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If we offer Schultz only 2 million a season someone will offer sheet him, probably a deal that takes him right to UFA and pays him something like 5

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02-26-2014, 08:33 PM
  #70
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I'm sure Montreal is super happy that they signed PK to a bridge contract when they sign him for 8.5 AAV this sunner.

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02-26-2014, 09:14 PM
  #71
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I think he is going to be a 2nd pairing puck moving dman. I wish he could put 15lbs on his frame as it would make it harder to play against him. He is only 23 so I think he will improve quite a bit in the next 2 yrs. I see him getting a bridge contract though as he still has a lot to improve mainly his defense but that will come.

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02-26-2014, 09:16 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by shogun99 View Post
I'm sure Montreal is super happy that they signed PK to a bridge contract when they sign him for 8.5 AAV this sunner.
What I heard is that PK wanted a long term deal worth 5mil per and I don't understand why they did not give it to him. PK proved a lot more than Schultz has when PK was negotiating his contract.

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02-26-2014, 09:56 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by shogun99 View Post
I'm sure Montreal is super happy that they signed PK to a bridge contract when they sign him for 8.5 AAV this sunner.
Schultz =/= Subban

If Schultz wants more than 3.5 per, I wouldn't give him a long term deal

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02-26-2014, 09:59 PM
  #74
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5 years at 5 mill per. Nuge and Hall's deals are steals, they will look like theft in 3-4 years. this is the type of deal people should expect.

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02-26-2014, 10:02 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Mr Positive View Post
I'd skip the bridge deal with him. It's a risk but he's a very smart player. Why have enough faith in RNH to skip the bridge deal but not Schultz?

If you have faith in Schultz, then the smart move is to skip the bridge deal and use that cap to either get a great supporting cast or to have a trading advantage in being able to retain salary.
I agree. I like Schultz a lot. He is a smart player and has put up 40 ppg pace this year and last. He will end up being a Dan Boyle, Brain Campbell type player who will get 7 mill on the open market in a few years, thus lock him up now for 5+ years at 4-5 mill.

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