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Winnipeg Jets 2013-14 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)

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02-17-2014, 09:34 AM
  #101
garret9
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Hello all,

I wrote an article a while ago on consistency showing how most team's don't very much in how often/severe they outplay/getoutplayed.

I did a follow up looking at consistency in team's being able to play "their game", whether that be high/low event games.

Intro:
Quote:
Our very first published article used shot attempt differentials to see if certain teams were more consistent than others in their performance. We observed that teams differed greatly in how they performed on average, but not so much in their levels of consistency, as in the spread of their performances.

One of the commentators of the article, under name of “Anthony Delage” wondered if team’s differed much in playing “their game”, or in other words: how often low-event team’s play low-event games vs high event teams play high-event games.
Rest of the article is http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/02/13/...gh-low-events/.

My fave graph is the one on the end where it shows this season how certain teams play:


As you can see, Jets tend to play pretty high event games.

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02-17-2014, 09:50 AM
  #102
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Oh PS... I've been doing some research recently with a few others and thought I'd give some sneak peeks:

Not unexpected, forwards tend to effect Fenwick/Corsi events for more than against.

Not unexpected, defense tend to effect Fenwick/Corsi events against more than for.




Anyways, my part in play is developing a connection between inputs and outputs. I'm looking at determining "expected goal differentials given a players usage and inputs".

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02-26-2014, 03:19 PM
  #103
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Eberle on Corsi:
https://soundcloud.com/ryan-dittrick...rle-02-26-2014

Interestingly, he's pretty on spot with things.

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02-26-2014, 04:00 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Eberle on Corsi:
https://soundcloud.com/ryan-dittrick...rle-02-26-2014

Interestingly, he's pretty on spot with things.
i can't listen...anyone got coles-notes?

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02-26-2014, 04:16 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
i can't listen...anyone got coles-notes?
He knows what Corsi is and says pretty much everyone does. Understands it's accumulation of shot attempts and proxies possession.

Notes the best team's in Corsi are the team's that tend to make the playoffs.

He also understands certain things can affect it (breakouts and zone entries).

He says as a player you can't think too much about it. If you are doing the right things, it will improve; if you try too much to just improve your Corsi, it will probably fall a part.


Side note: Someone in response to this said that the Oilers recently had their statistical analysts talk to the players. Sounds like Eberle listened.

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02-26-2014, 04:17 PM
  #106
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so much for the "but players will just throw pucks on the net to imprvoe theri corsi" argument.

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02-26-2014, 09:42 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
so much for the "but players will just throw pucks on the net to imprvoe theri corsi" argument.
Somebody on Twitter argued to me that Stuart would have better Corsi numbers if he would just shoot more - as though it is that simple.

EDIT

Dude thought I was insane for suggesting there were other contributing factors such as:

Having the puck.

or

The fact that Stu taking shots wouldn't happen in a vacuum. IE. Trouba would be passing shots up so Stu could take them.

One can't simply add shots to his team's totals.


Last edited by truck: 02-26-2014 at 09:52 PM.
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02-26-2014, 10:56 PM
  #108
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I remember someone said, in response to a criticism of Pavs based on sv%, that it was inaccurate because Pavelec's goalie coach would never talk about it. But of course coaches don't focus on stats, they focus on the skills that end up getting the stats. No coach is gonna say, "get a better sv%", or "get better Corsi" or whatever else. It'll be the skills that get the results, not the other way around.

There's something longer I want to say about this, but I can't quite get the words right, so I'll leave it. But yeah, players don't need to know how advanced stats work, because that won't help them be better. But it doesn't mean that those players aren't actually better when they have better Corsi.

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02-27-2014, 02:08 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Eberle on Corsi:
https://soundcloud.com/ryan-dittrick...rle-02-26-2014

Interestingly, he's pretty on spot with things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Somebody on Twitter argued to me that Stuart would have better Corsi numbers if he would just shoot more - as though it is that simple.

EDIT

Dude thought I was insane for suggesting there were other contributing factors such as:

Having the puck.

or

The fact that Stu taking shots wouldn't happen in a vacuum. IE. Trouba would be passing shots up so Stu could take them.

One can't simply add shots to his team's totals.
Also there is the fact that defensemen (except for elite exceptions like Buff, Karlsson, Yandle, etc) predominately affect Corsi against events, not for.

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02-27-2014, 02:52 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Dude thought I was insane for suggesting there were other contributing factors such as:

Having the puck.


I just about lost it reading that.

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02-28-2014, 02:03 PM
  #111
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SLOAN conference is going on right now.

It is hilarious. I feel bad for Tulsky.

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02-28-2014, 02:48 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winterpeg View Post


I just about lost it reading that.
I was flabbergasted about how to respond.

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02-28-2014, 03:33 PM
  #113
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I got a good piece on Corsi coming out on Monday on hockey-graphs... and maybe a follow piece on AIH if I decide to publish it

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02-28-2014, 05:46 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I got a good piece on Corsi coming out on Monday on hockey-graphs... and maybe a follow piece on AIH if I decide to publish it
Drop us a link when its available

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03-03-2014, 01:44 PM
  #115
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Honest question because I can't remember when it came to dmen/forwards:

When is the sample size large enough to infer (if the stats agree that is) that Jacob Trouba is a better defenseman than Dustin Byfuglien?

I got curious during Saturday's game and went to behindthenet to see how the two compared. Bogosian too.

What my untrained eye saw was this. *forgive me, going off memory don't have it in front of me*

Trouba takes less penalties by a wide margin

Trouba is producing at a similar rate offensively to Buff in goal metrics

Trouba is playing around 40% more PK mins than Bogosian, or a bit more than 0:30/60 mins.

Buff's GA/60 was around 3 and Trouba's was in the low 2's iirc this was is fuzzy in my head. It could be partially explained by Buff's low PDO/on-ice sv%?

Buff still has a better Corsi than Trouba by a good margin.

Buff produces more on the PP. can't remember how much, I probably forgot to check because it didn't suit what I was looking for on 2nd thought lol. But Buff still plays 1PP so it's sort of irrelevant right?

And of course the most inconclusive, cart before the horse stat: the team's record since Buff got moved to forward.





Thanks in advance garret/truck/anyone, just want your input on the potential validity of what I'm seeing in our future phenomenal beast defenseman!

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03-03-2014, 01:45 PM
  #116
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Double post

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03-03-2014, 02:00 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flair Hay View Post
Honest question because I can't remember when it came to dmen/forwards:

When is the sample size large enough to infer (if the stats agree that is) that Jacob Trouba is a better defenseman than Dustin Byfuglien?

I got curious during Saturday's game and went to behindthenet to see how the two compared. Bogosian too.

What my untrained eye saw was this. *forgive me, going off memory don't have it in front of me*

Trouba takes less penalties by a wide margin

Trouba is producing at a similar rate offensively to Buff in goal metrics

Trouba is playing around 40% more PK mins than Bogosian, or a bit more than 0:30/60 mins.

Buff's GA/60 was around 3 and Trouba's was in the low 2's iirc this was is fuzzy in my head. It could be partially explained by Buff's low PDO/on-ice sv%?

Buff still has a better Corsi than Trouba by a good margin.

Buff produces more on the PP. can't remember how much, I probably forgot to check because it didn't suit what I was looking for on 2nd thought lol. But Buff still plays 1PP so it's sort of irrelevant right?

And of course the most inconclusive, cart before the horse stat: the team's record since Buff got moved to forward.





Thanks in advance garret/truck/anyone, just want your input on the potential validity of what I'm seeing in our future phenomenal beast defenseman!
To me, Trouba looks like a future #1 and Bogo looks like a 3 or 4

Not sure I would put Trouba ahead of Buff or Bogo yet, but he is climbing fast.

I'm curious to see what he would do if he weren't dragging Mark Stuart around.

Trouba with Stu 44.9% Corsi
Trouba without Stu 49.8% Corsi

FWIW

with Toby 53.3
with Bogo 50.0


Numbers still say to go with:
Toby - Trouba
Stu - Bogo


Last edited by truck: 03-03-2014 at 02:09 PM.
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03-03-2014, 02:22 PM
  #118
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This **** be important!

More on “Corsi & Context”, with some added predictive modeling

A look into what Corsi means a player is doing for the team and the line, by separating all forwards and defensmen according to their ATOI (ie: what line/pair they are on).


At the end of the season I will look at how each NHL Jet did according to their usage (using a usage regression of dCorsi) and according to which line they were (using the modeling seen here). If I get time, I may take a partway through season review looking at these factoids.

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03-04-2014, 12:57 AM
  #119
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Well I made time and I'm running the numbers, looking at the Jets compared to their peers (as seen in the link in my last post).

So expect an AIH post soon with some interesting stuff on our players.

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03-05-2014, 02:37 AM
  #120
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I've noticed something really weird about how Jets have divided their 5v5 icetime...

They have SEVEN forwards in the top 95 for 5v5 TOI/GP... that's with the team being 20th in 5v5 TOI/GP....

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03-05-2014, 07:12 AM
  #121
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I'm just thinking out loud - but could that be explained by having a weak/underutilized 4th line?

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03-06-2014, 01:04 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Puckatron 3000 View Post
I'm just thinking out loud - but could that be explained by having a weak/underutilized 4th line?
That seems to be exactly it. But I'm not sure how much of it is weakness, and if so how much of that could be rectified by better player management, and how much of it is underutilization.

The only 4th liners the Jets have that average regular 4th line 5v5 TOI is Thorburn and Halischuk, both whom have spent many games playing on second and/or third line. The remaining depth players (including Slater) have averaged what is norm for call-ups.

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03-06-2014, 11:57 PM
  #123
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03-07-2014, 09:07 AM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
#sadtrombone


Well now that we're losing games maybe we'll finally try him back there.

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