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The Three Constants In Life: Death, Taxes and Oilers Draft Watch

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02-27-2014, 02:33 PM
  #501
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If we get any of Reinhart, Ekblad, or Bennett we are laughing... cause we need all 3.

Preferably Ekblad.. but we still need another Center so whatever.

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02-27-2014, 02:36 PM
  #502
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Have you seen our schedule?

We arent likely to be passing anybody.
Yeah, I don't see the optimism, more likely they end up last than in 5th.

Eakins is getting another shot at his swarm system, the Oilers are trying to dump what little depth they have for draft picks, and most of the teams they will be facing here on out will be in the playoff hunt.

This is the part of the season where the Oilers usually get decimated, not exactly a safe bet to say that it won't happen again.


Last edited by Tarus: 02-27-2014 at 02:42 PM.
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02-27-2014, 02:38 PM
  #503
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Please, Gods of June, send us young Aaron Ekblad.

I will be forever grateful.

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Old
02-27-2014, 02:47 PM
  #504
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If Oilers play REALLY well they have a shot at about 13 potential wins in the next 22. That's beating:

LA once
Van
Col
Calgary twice
Nsh
Car
Ott
Nyr
Nyi
Buffalo
Anaheim maybe once (we play 3 times)
Phx

Since it is very unlikely all this goes well and we win all them, lets say 75% of them (best case imo), looking at a best case scenario of about 9-10 wins, not factoring in OT etc.

Out of a possible 44 points, I see us with about 16-20. with maybe a couple of OTs that bump us to the upper part of that range.



New York Islanders I see a potential 12 wins (they got a fairly lax schedule), even without Tavares. Lets say they win 50-60%, they may be around 6-8 wins the rest of the season giving them about 12 - 16 points, with some OT losses thrown in.

If they worst case scenario (imo) go 6w/16l, we may be bumped down a notch, if we do better than normal.


Last edited by armandh01: 02-27-2014 at 02:58 PM.
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02-27-2014, 02:55 PM
  #505
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

Nearly a 60% chance to finish 29th even with a 10-10-2 record.

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02-27-2014, 02:59 PM
  #506
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It's pretty hard to see the Oilers goalies keeping up a 94%+ save percentage as well like they've done over the last 10 games so even if they drift down to a "good" ~92%... that probably means the team has an uphill climb to just get 22 pts in their last 22 games.

The smart money would be on them staying right where they are in 29th... but we never know what could happen down the stretch with injuries/trades etc on all the other teams.

This last qtr of the season is the most intense and tight obviously for teams on the bubble scrambling for playoff spots and the Oilers should theoretically be much looser in their spoiler role the rest of the way. I could see them doing better than expected because they have zippo pressure on them.

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02-27-2014, 03:06 PM
  #507
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

Nearly a 60% chance to finish 29th even with a 10-10-2 record.
A 20% (and dropping) mathematical chance of making the playoffs by mid-October.. now there's something to be proud of.

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02-27-2014, 03:07 PM
  #508
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As much as I love when Oilers beat the Flames, I'm not so sure that I even want the Oilers to win in their final two games against Calgary. The proverbial 4 point must lose games.

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02-27-2014, 03:11 PM
  #509
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Originally Posted by Dabomb View Post
Which NHL player has Sam Reinhart been compared to most? Haven't seen him play alot.
He reminds of a better scoring Partice Bergeron. Not the most dynamic player, but always make the smart play, excels in every situation and just has a knack for being in the right spot at the right time. I think he's the exact type of center that we need to compliment RNH.

IMO, there's very little doubt that Buffalo passes on him if they wind up drafting 1st.
I don't even think that he would be a consolation prize for us after Ekblad. I think in a lot of ways that he fills a bigger need actually.

A lot of you are more confident in the Oilers abilities than i am. I'd be very surprised if they fall out of the bottom 3. Scrivens will hit a rough patch at some point and the team will become exposed as a result.

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02-27-2014, 03:17 PM
  #510
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
He reminds of a better scoring Partice Bergeron. Not the most dynamic player, but always make the smart play, excels in every situation and just has a knack for being in the right spot at the right time. I think he's the exact type of center that we need to compliment RNH.

IMO, there's very little doubt that Buffalo passes on him if they wind up drafting 1st.
I don't even think that he would be a consolation prize for us after Ekblad. I think in a lot of ways that he fills a bigger need actually.

A lot of you are more confident in the Oilers abilities than i am. I'd be very surprised if they fall out of the bottom 3. Scrivens will hit a rough patch at some point and the team will become exposed as a result.
Thanks.. I was hoping for a little higher comparable than Bergeron though lol. I've heard Sam Bennett being compared to Doug Gilmour and even Pat Kane, but haven't heard much comparisons with Reinhart. As long as their ceilings are much higher than Sam Gagner, then I'm happy with either player if we don't get Ekblad. I just pray for a top3 pick so we can land one of those 3 players.

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02-27-2014, 03:21 PM
  #511
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Originally Posted by Dabomb View Post
Thanks.. I was hoping for a little higher comparable than Bergeron though lol. I've heard Sam Bennett being compared to Doug Gilmour and even Pat Kane, but haven't heard much comparisons with Reinhart. As long as their ceilings are much higher than Sam Gagner, then I'm happy with either player if we don't get Ekblad. I just pray for a top3 pick so we can land one of those 3 players.
The thing is that we don't need a superstar from this draft. What we need is an impact player who fills a need.
I think a good comparable for Ekblad is Seabrook. Not a sexy name but the type of player that we can really use, same with a Bergeron type. I haven't seen Bennett play so i can't really make a judgment on him.
There aren't a lot of dynamic talents at the top of this draft and quite frankly, i think that works in our favor because we don't need another dynamic player.

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02-27-2014, 03:25 PM
  #512
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Originally Posted by Dabomb View Post
Thanks.. I was hoping for a little higher comparable than Bergeron though lol. I've heard Sam Bennett being compared to Doug Gilmour and even Pat Kane, but haven't heard much comparisons with Reinhart. As long as their ceilings are much higher than Sam Gagner, then I'm happy with either player if we don't get Ekblad. I just pray for a top3 pick so we can land one of those 3 players.
Bennett IMO looks a lot like Matt Duchene with more grit, Reinhart to me is tough to put a finger on because he's so damn smart. I think an 80 point Bergeron would be a good comparable or Toews.

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02-27-2014, 03:33 PM
  #513
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
The thing is that we don't need a superstar from this draft. What we need is an impact player who fills a need.
I think a good comparable for Ekblad is Seabrook. Not a sexy name but the type of player that we can really use, same with a Bergeron type. I haven't seen Bennett play so i can't really make a judgment on him.
There aren't a lot of dynamic talents at the top of this draft and quite frankly, i think that works in our favor because we don't need another dynamic player.

The thing I like about Reinhart more than Ekblad is that it creates an asset up front to deal imo. So we can fill two significant holes by dealing a skilled winger for a Dman in the ilk of someone like Tyutin, Voynov, Bogosian, Josi with teams of excess D or lack of scoring.

Hall - Nuge - Yak
X - Reinhart - Perron

We would likely not have a 1D but a future of Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, Petry + traded asset is not a bad future on the back end tbh and our C depth would be set for a long time.

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02-27-2014, 03:33 PM
  #514
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Originally Posted by Dabomb View Post
As much as I love when Oilers beat the Flames, I'm not so sure that I even want the Oilers to win in their final two games against Calgary. The proverbial 4 point must lose games.
not me....I'm done "cheering" for the losses

this team needs to show some growth and gain some momentum going into next year

I wanna see Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Yak go on a tear and finish with good point totals and respectable +/- ratings
I wanna see Schultz improve his defense and Marincin continue to grow

cause let's face it, even if they go 14-6-2 down the stretch...there's an 87% chance they finish in the top 5

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

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02-27-2014, 03:36 PM
  #515
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
not me....I'm done "cheering" for the losses

this team needs to show some growth and gain some momentum going into next year

I wanna see Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Yak go on a tear and finish with good point totals and respectable +/- ratings
I wanna see Schultz improve his defense and Marincin continue to grow

cause let's face it, even if they go 14-6-2 down the stretch...there's an 87% chance they finish in the top 5

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html
If they're still in 29th with 5 games left I'll start cheering for losses. Those last 2 games last year did nothing for our confidence this year and cost us Monahan.

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02-27-2014, 03:39 PM
  #516
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
not me....I'm done "cheering" for the losses

this team needs to show some growth and gain some momentum going into next year

I wanna see Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Yak go on a tear and finish with good point totals and respectable +/- ratings
I wanna see Schultz improve his defense and Marincin continue to grow

cause let's face it, even if they go 14-6-2 down the stretch...there's an 87% chance they finish in the top 5

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html
They did that last year and it didn't do diddly. I'm tired of moral victories and would rather just get the pieces need to draft and gtfo of the rebuild.

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02-27-2014, 03:47 PM
  #517
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Originally Posted by armandh01 View Post
The thing I like about Reinhart more than Ekblad is that it creates an asset up front to deal imo. So we can fill two significant holes by dealing a skilled winger for a Dman in the ilk of someone like Tyutin, Voynov, Bogosian, Josi with teams of excess D or lack of scoring.

Hall - Nuge - Yak
X - Reinhart - Perron

We would likely not have a 1D but a future of Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, Petry + traded asset is not a bad future on the back end tbh and our C depth would be set for a long time.
Also, once Gagner is dealt (likely right around the time of the draft), the Oilers have literally nothing in the organization that remotely resembles a long term top 6 C solution and as you said, there are plenty of solid close to NHL ready Dmen ready to make the jump.
What we need on defense is veterans capable of playing big minutes, not more rookies.

I would obviously be thrilled with Ekblad, but i think the need for a center in this draft is being understated by a lot of folks around here. There's a lot of Ekblad or bust or Ekblad then a big drop off sentiment and i couldn't disagree more with that.

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02-27-2014, 03:48 PM
  #518
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
not me....I'm done "cheering" for the losses

this team needs to show some growth and gain some momentum going into next year

I wanna see Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Yak go on a tear and finish with good point totals and respectable +/- ratings
I wanna see Schultz improve his defense and Marincin continue to grow

cause let's face it, even if they go 14-6-2 down the stretch...there's an 87% chance they finish in the top 5

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html
I'm not concerned about the progression of Hall, Eberle, RNH as much.. those players will be fine going forward no matter how good or bad this team plays in the remaining 22 games. I agree with you though that I would love to see Yakupov, Schultz, and Marincin continue to progress and build on their good play lately. Would also love to see Scrivens continue to play well and locked up soon.

However, we've all seen what a top pick can do for our club with Hall, RNH, and Yakupov. To me, we've already had to suffer through 60 games, so what's another 20 games when that means we can add a significant piece in the draft for the future.

At this point, I'm just gonna watch the games and be happy either way. If they do well and win.. great. If they lose.. great.

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02-27-2014, 03:50 PM
  #519
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
If they're still in 29th with 5 games left I'll start cheering for losses. Those last 2 games last year did nothing for our confidence this year and cost us Monahan.
you can't compare a 2-game sample size with a 22-game sample size

we didn't get Monahan but we got Nurse....probably more of a need on this team

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02-27-2014, 04:13 PM
  #520
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I'm not concerned about the progression of Hall, Eberle, RNH as much.. those players will be fine going forward no matter how good or bad this team plays in the remaining 22 games. I agree with you though that I would love to see Yakupov, Schultz, and Marincin continue to progress and build on their good play lately. Would also love to see Scrivens continue to play well and locked up soon.

However, we've all seen what a top pick can do for our club with Hall, RNH, and Yakupov. To me, we've already had to suffer through 60 games, so what's another 20 games when that means we can add a significant piece in the draft for the future.

At this point, I'm just gonna watch the games and be happy either way. If they do well and win.. great. If they lose.. great.
because at some point they need to show progression on the ice?

and in a draft like this, where there's no clear-cut favorite...drafting 1st and drafting 5th isn't as big a fall back as in most years

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02-27-2014, 04:16 PM
  #521
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because at some point they need to show progression on the ice?

and in a draft like this, where there's no clear-cut favorite...drafting 1st and drafting 5th isn't as big a fall back as in most years
Its not as big a fall back as in most years, but the difference between Ekblad/Reinhart/Bennett vs Dal Colle/Draisaitl is still significant enough for me to cheer for a top 3 pick.

What can I say.. being a fan of this team has turned me into a tanking w.hore.

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02-27-2014, 05:02 PM
  #522
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He reminds of a better scoring Partice Bergeron. Not the most dynamic player, but always make the smart play, excels in every situation and just has a knack for being in the right spot at the right time. I think he's the exact type of center that we need to compliment RNH.

IMO, there's very little doubt that Buffalo passes on him if they wind up drafting 1st.
I don't even think that he would be a consolation prize for us after Ekblad. I think in a lot of ways that he fills a bigger need actually.

A lot of you are more confident in the Oilers abilities than i am. I'd be very surprised if they fall out of the bottom 3. Scrivens will hit a rough patch at some point and the team will become exposed as a result.
He basically IS RNH. Not that RNH isn't a great player but we have enough of them!

Ekblad is far and away a better fit with our team now and in the future.

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02-27-2014, 05:14 PM
  #523
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If they're still in 29th with 5 games left I'll start cheering for losses. Those last 2 games last year did nothing for our confidence this year and cost us Monahan.
Nurse will prove to be a better player.

Monahan really doesn't create anything. He has a knack for being in the right place so I'll give him credit for that but he has sophomore slump written all over him. Nurse has higher upside better intelligence and knows what it takes to be a pro.

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02-27-2014, 08:25 PM
  #524
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Reinhart looks to extend his 21 game point streak this weekend, facing Saskatoon on Friday and PA on Saturday. Blades are 3rd worst in GA, Raiders 7th.

And as far as comparables, I think Toews is a better comparison (though not as good a skater or as tenacious when carrying the puck). Sky high hockey IQ and excellent positioning. I suppose Nuge is a decent comparable as well.

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02-27-2014, 09:22 PM
  #525
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As much as I love when Oilers beat the Flames, I'm not so sure that I even want the Oilers to win in their final two games against Calgary. The proverbial 4 point must lose games.
Which you know mean guaranteed wins lol

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