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Keenan: 6 points in 5 games thread

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Old
02-05-2014, 10:03 AM
  #326
RyderN17
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Originally Posted by Jets4Life View Post
Some people become so wrapped up in statistics, that they forget what is really important: Wins and Losses. So far, Maurice is 9-2-0, and Noel was 19-23-5. Nothing else matters.

It's like when a couple of statisticians were making the case for Carlyle being a horrible coach, despite turning around the Moose AHL franchise in the late 90's, doing it a second time in 2004-05, and leading Anaheim to the Stanley Cup, as well as 6 consecutive playoff berths, then leading the Maple Leafs to their first playoff appearance in nearly a decade.

Corsi numbers mean virtually nothing, IMO. It's who wins at the end of the day that counts...
You're right, wins and losses are all that matter at the end of the day. Stats guys don't look at the number and suggest that we should be losing (or winning). Anything can happen in a game or over a short period of time. It's used as a predictor of what is expected to happen in the future. Can a team play with below average possession numbers and a high PDO and win for an extended period? Sure (toronto). Is it likely? No. History tells us that it isn't sustainable, and that over a large enough sample, teams will regress to their mean. An when they do, winning becomes a lot tougher.

Does that mean we shouldn't be excited about what the Jets are doing? No. Does it mean we shouldn't have hope that we make the playoffs? Of course not. What it means is that we should understand that the Jets haven't all of a sudden become a dominant force. They're winning games, which is all that matters. But it should come as no surprise to anyone if they regress.


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02-05-2014, 10:59 AM
  #327
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A very interesting trend just above Noel the whole way. It shouldn't be any surprise that we dipped as low as we did when we had 3 of 5 games against 3 of the best teams in the league. Encouraging that we've climbed back up with some games against more average teams. The high PDO is still concerning for me, but if the PDO drops and the possession numbers climb a bit, it should soften the landing.

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02-05-2014, 11:34 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by RyderN17 View Post


A very interesting trend just above Noel the whole way. It shouldn't be any surprise that we dipped as low as we did when we had 3 of 5 games against 3 of the best teams in the league. Encouraging that we've climbed back up with some games against more average teams. The high PDO is still concerning for me, but if the PDO drops and the possession numbers climb a bit, it should soften the landing.
Thanks for the graph. Like you said: That PDO line for Maurice is bound to crash, but the possession numbers are trending in the right direction.

Any idea how the Fenwick close numbers compare between Noel and Maurice? Mo seems to be incorporating shot blocking as a pretty big part of the Jets strategy.

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02-05-2014, 11:45 AM
  #329
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Thanks for the graph. Like you said: That PDO line for Maurice is bound to crash, but the possession numbers are trending in the right direction.

Any idea how the Fenwick close numbers compare between Noel and Maurice? Mo seems to be incorporating shot blocking as a pretty big part of the Jets strategy.
The save percentage has been stellar since PM came on board I'm assuming. The Chicago, Montreal and Carolina games woudl do that. How about the shot% though? Is it higher than average over the last little while?

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02-05-2014, 11:47 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by RyderN17 View Post


A very interesting trend just above Noel the whole way. It shouldn't be any surprise that we dipped as low as we did when we had 3 of 5 games against 3 of the best teams in the league. Encouraging that we've climbed back up with some games against more average teams. The high PDO is still concerning for me, but if the PDO drops and the possession numbers climb a bit, it should soften the landing.
Isn't everyone looking at PDO, SH% and SV% incorrectly? You're going to get stretches of games where those numbers are high or low. Team PDO for the Jets is 996 (tied for 19th in the NHL) for the year. SH% = 8.8% (T-14th), SV% = .907 (T-23rd). Regression plays out over longer stretches than 11 games, so I don't know if we need to be pulling our hair out about "unsustainable" at this point. Especially when these "unsustainable" SH% and SV% numbers are in line with what STL and BOS have been sustaining for 55 games.

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02-05-2014, 12:14 PM
  #331
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The save percentage has been stellar since PM came on board I'm assuming. The Chicago, Montreal and Carolina games woudl do that. How about the shot% though? Is it higher than average over the last little while?
Yep, it's around 11% since Maurice took over. We're at 8.9% on the season. St. Louis leads the league at 11.1%.

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02-05-2014, 12:48 PM
  #332
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Isn't everyone looking at PDO, SH% and SV% incorrectly? You're going to get stretches of games where those numbers are high or low. Team PDO for the Jets is 996 (tied for 19th in the NHL) for the year. SH% = 8.8% (T-14th), SV% = .907 (T-23rd). Regression plays out over longer stretches than 11 games, so I don't know if we need to be pulling our hair out about "unsustainable" at this point. Especially when these "unsustainable" SH% and SV% numbers are in line with what STL and BOS have been sustaining for 55 games.
History just tells us that stretches like this aren't likely to be sustainable over a long period. There are ebbs and flows to a season, and you're going to have periods of high PDO like we're seeing now. It is possible we continue with it until the end of the season, but it is more likely that we trend back towards our mean of 8.8% and .907.

It's also possible that we're regressing up to where we should be, and that we'll level off at a PDO closer to 100. However, we've finished well below that the past 2 seasons (mostly because of goaltending). Will Pavelec be able to maintain a good enough save percentage to keep us on this trend? History tells us no. For my money, he'll be the biggest factor in whether we can make a playoff push or not.

Really anything could happen to finish out the season. I look at these numbers and stay cautiously optimistic.

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02-05-2014, 01:06 PM
  #333
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Thanks for the graph. Like you said: That PDO line for Maurice is bound to crash, but the possession numbers are trending in the right direction.

Any idea how the Fenwick close numbers compare between Noel and Maurice? Mo seems to be incorporating shot blocking as a pretty big part of the Jets strategy.
Follows the same trend, but the gap between the two is greater. About a 4% delta vs ~2.25% for corsi.


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02-05-2014, 01:21 PM
  #334
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Hey Ryder: welcome to HFJets! Nice first contributions.

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02-05-2014, 01:26 PM
  #335
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Hey Ryder: welcome to HFJets! Nice first contributions.
Indeed! Welcome Ryder, killer first few posts.

Thanks so much for that graph, so it does like there's a slightly more meaningful difference when removing blocked shots from the equation.

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02-08-2014, 04:45 PM
  #336
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Found this thread hanging on for dear life to stay on the 1st page. By far me favorite thread. Should be stickied in my opinion.

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02-08-2014, 04:50 PM
  #337
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Found this thread hanging on for dear life to stay on the 1st page. By far me favorite thread. Should be stickied in my opinion.
I was going to update it after the Phoenix - Dallas game later tonight, so we know where we are going into the Olympic break. Getting really tight at the playoff line - the games after the break should be very interesting! Looking forward to getting Kane and Slater back, and to have Maurice implement more of his systems in his mini-training camp. Hopefully we keep trending up.

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02-09-2014, 12:51 AM
  #338
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Go into the break down by 2. Totally doable!

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02-09-2014, 01:07 AM
  #339
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I'm not sure why people are complaining about stats in a thread that is explicitly about stats.

I also think it's a bit disingenuous to assume that those who look at or follow stats don't care about wins/losses (not responding to you specifically King, just in general).

As always, if you don't like a particular thread, you can always click on the X button, and it will vanish from your thread view.

Here's a graph of how far the Jets have been away from the playoff line over the course of the year. Note that 10 games ago, the Jets were 12 points out. 10 games later, they're 2 points out. Go Jets Go!


I like that mountain we're approaching.

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02-09-2014, 06:27 AM
  #340
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Updated table and chart - with Dallas winning, the Canucks losing (again, and again! wow), and the Jets picking up a point, they remain 2pts back of the playoffs. Coyotes and Dallas have games in hand, but I'm pretty impressed that the Jets have been able to crawl back into contention - makes the Olympic break a little easier to take.

SET*********************************************SET PTSTOTAL PTSVS GOALDIVCONFPACE
1st 5 @EDM (W 5-4)LAK (W 5-3)ANA (L 3-2) @MIN (L 2-1)DAL (L 4-1)44-261266
2nd 5NJD (W 3-0)MTL (L 3-0)STL (SOW 4-3)NSH (L 3-1)WSH (SOL 5-4)59-361274
3rd 5NSH (OTL 3-2)DAL (SOW 2-1)COL (L 3-2)STL (L 3-2)CHI (L 5-1)312-6.071366
4th 5DET (W 4-2)CHI (L 4-2)NSH (W 5-0)SJS (SOW 5-4)DET (SOW 3-2)820-4.051082
5th 5PHI (SOW 3-2)MIN (L 2-1)CGY (SOL 5-4)CHI (L 6-3)MIN (SOL 3-2)424-6.071279
6th 5NJD (W 3-1)NYI (W 3-2)PHI (L 2-1)NYR (W 5-2)FLA (L 5-2)630-6.061182
7th 5TBL (OTW 2-1)STL (L 2-1)COL (SOL 4-3)DAL (L 6-4)CBJ (W 3-2)535-7.071282
8th 5BUF (L 4-2)FLA (W 5-2)VAN (L 2-1)EDM (L 6-2)MIN (W 6-4)439-9.061180
9th 5COL (OTW 2-1)BUF (W 3-0)OTT (L 4-3)BOS (L 4-1)PIT (L 6-5)443-11.061178
10th 5TBL (L 4-2)CBJ (L 6-3)PHO (W 5-1)CGY (W 5-2)EDM (OTW 3-2)649-11.071280
11th 5ANA (W 3-2)SJS (L 1-0)TOR (OTW 5-4)CHI (W 3-1)NSH (L 4-3)655-1161182
12th 5VAN (W 4-3)MTL (W 2-1)CAR (W 2-1)WSH (L 4-2)STL (SOL 4-3)762-10.061185





Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 02-09-2014 at 06:39 AM.
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02-27-2014, 11:43 PM
  #341
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Silly Dallas won so we're still two back. Still keeping pace!

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02-28-2014, 04:31 AM
  #342
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Silly Dallas won so we're still two back. Still keeping pace!


I'll post an update as soon as I've had my coffee. As long as they stay in the thick of things, anything is possible. Lots of games against the 'pack' of teams they're running with as well, which will be big 4pt games (like tonight - unfortunately, gave the 'Yotes one, but hey).

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02-28-2014, 04:33 AM
  #343
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The Coyotes one isn't as bad, as they're the other division. how close are they to the third place team there?

edit: Heh. Just checked the standings. The only difference between us and the Avs are 7 GF and 18 GA. That's with our atrocious .901 goalie.


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02-28-2014, 06:51 AM
  #344
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Updated table and chart - everyone who's in the hunt either won, or gained a point last night, so the Jets remain 2pts back of the playoff line. Dallas is currently in the final wildcard spot.

Rather interesting that both wildcard teams (Wild and Dallas) are both under or right at the 6 in 5 line. Regression.

Even if the Jets don't make it, they've clawed their way back into the hunt, and this will make the run to the end of the season MUCH more interesting, IMHO.

Go Go!

SET*********************************************SET PTSTOTAL PTSVS GOALDIVCONFPACE
1st 5 @EDM (W 5-4)LAK (W 5-3)ANA (L 3-2) @MIN (L 2-1)DAL (L 4-1)44-261266
2nd 5NJD (W 3-0)MTL (L 3-0)STL (SOW 4-3)NSH (L 3-1)WSH (SOL 5-4)59-361274
3rd 5NSH (OTL 3-2)DAL (SOW 2-1)COL (L 3-2)STL (L 3-2)CHI (L 5-1)312-6.071366
4th 5DET (W 4-2)CHI (L 4-2)NSH (W 5-0)SJS (SOW 5-4)DET (SOW 3-2)820-4.051082
5th 5PHI (SOW 3-2)MIN (L 2-1)CGY (SOL 5-4)CHI (L 6-3)MIN (SOL 3-2)424-6.071279
6th 5NJD (W 3-1)NYI (W 3-2)PHI (L 2-1)NYR (W 5-2)FLA (L 5-2)630-6.061182
7th 5TBL (OTW 2-1)STL (L 2-1)COL (SOL 4-3)DAL (L 6-4)CBJ (W 3-2)535-7.071282
8th 5BUF (L 4-2)FLA (W 5-2)VAN (L 2-1)EDM (L 6-2)MIN (W 6-4)439-9.061180
9th 5COL (OTW 2-1)BUF (W 3-0)OTT (L 4-3)BOS (L 4-1)PIT (L 6-5)443-11.061178
10th 5TBL (L 4-2)CBJ (L 6-3)PHO (W 5-1)CGY (W 5-2)EDM (OTW 3-2)649-11.071280
11th 5ANA (W 3-2)SJS (L 1-0)TOR (OTW 5-4)CHI (W 3-1)NSH (L 4-3)655-1161182
12th 5VAN (W 4-3)MTL (W 2-1)CAR (W 2-1)WSH (L 4-2)STL (SOL 4-3)762-10.061185
13th 5PHO (SOW 3-2)    264-9.261186




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02-28-2014, 11:07 AM
  #345
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Well we've hit 6-for-10 3 times in a row, and we're 2-for-2 in this 5 game period, so that's pretty great.

Notice that the line to make the playoffs is well off the pace for 6 points in 5 games... about 8 points shy of that pace? Might not need to win as many as we think, which is great.

BUT JUST KEEP WINNING!

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02-28-2014, 11:11 AM
  #346
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Well we've hit 6-for-10 3 times in a row, and we're 2-for-2 in this 5 game period, so that's pretty great.

Notice that the line to make the playoffs is well off the pace for 6 points in 5 games... about 8 points shy of that pace? Might not need to win as many as we think, which is great.

BUT JUST KEEP WINNING!
Yep! Keep winning, and force the other teams to put up or shut up.

I had a pretty good feeling that the playoff line would regress from 100+ points. Historically, it always has. 6 in 5 should definitely get you one of the 2 wildcard spots, but I think less than that will get you the last one. It'll be interesting.

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03-01-2014, 06:10 PM
  #347
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Nashville loses (to us), Dallas loses to TB, Canucks only picked up a point yesterday against the Wild. Good times. Now sitting tied for 8th, but Dallas has 2 games in hand (1.0 GBL, basically)

Go Go!

SET*********************************************SET PTSTOTAL PTSVS GOALDIVCONFPACE
1st 5 @EDM (W 5-4)LAK (W 5-3)ANA (L 3-2) @MIN (L 2-1)DAL (L 4-1)44-261266
2nd 5NJD (W 3-0)MTL (L 3-0)STL (SOW 4-3)NSH (L 3-1)WSH (SOL 5-4)59-361274
3rd 5NSH (OTL 3-2)DAL (SOW 2-1)COL (L 3-2)STL (L 3-2)CHI (L 5-1)312-6.071366
4th 5DET (W 4-2)CHI (L 4-2)NSH (W 5-0)SJS (SOW 5-4)DET (SOW 3-2)820-4.051082
5th 5PHI (SOW 3-2)MIN (L 2-1)CGY (SOL 5-4)CHI (L 6-3)MIN (SOL 3-2)424-6.071279
6th 5NJD (W 3-1)NYI (W 3-2)PHI (L 2-1)NYR (W 5-2)FLA (L 5-2)630-6.061182
7th 5TBL (OTW 2-1)STL (L 2-1)COL (SOL 4-3)DAL (L 6-4)CBJ (W 3-2)535-7.071282
8th 5BUF (L 4-2)FLA (W 5-2)VAN (L 2-1)EDM (L 6-2)MIN (W 6-4)439-9.061180
9th 5COL (OTW 2-1)BUF (W 3-0)OTT (L 4-3)BOS (L 4-1)PIT (L 6-5)443-11.061178
10th 5TBL (L 4-2)CBJ (L 6-3)PHO (W 5-1)CGY (W 5-2)EDM (OTW 3-2)649-11.071280
11th 5ANA (W 3-2)SJS (L 1-0)TOR (OTW 5-4)CHI (W 3-1)NSH (L 4-3)655-1161182
12th 5VAN (W 4-3)MTL (W 2-1)CAR (W 2-1)WSH (L 4-2)STL (SOL 4-3)762-10.061185
13th 5PHO (SOW 3-2)NSH (W 3-1)   466-8.461087




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03-01-2014, 06:28 PM
  #348
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Love to see us touch the line.

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03-02-2014, 07:30 PM
  #349
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Love to see us touch the line.
Would love to see us go above the line.

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03-02-2014, 08:50 PM
  #350
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Love to see us touch the line.
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Would love to see us go above the line.
Unfortunately, Phoenix is leading St Louis 2-0 at the end of the 2nd. If they hold on, they'll be 1 point ahead of us AND have a game in hand.

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