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Your views on Dallas Eakins so far - Part II

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Old
02-28-2014, 07:45 PM
  #476
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Originally Posted by molsonmuscle360 View Post
Yeah, seeing as every media member and a bunch of Team Canada staff were praising the game plans that Kreuger set. But yeah, I'm sure a super strong defensive game plan (which is Kreuger's specialty) had nothing to do with Canada winning.
That's exactly what I said. He played a big part of Canada winning, so why isn't he in the NHL?

Hell, why isn't he even in hockey anymore? TC aside he's gone to soccer. You're telling he couldn't find a job ANYWHERE in hockey? If you watched the team last year after they went on that 5 game winning streak you knew how good they really were.

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02-28-2014, 07:49 PM
  #477
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That's exactly what I said. He played a big part of Canada winning, so why isn't he in the NHL?

Hell, why isn't he even in hockey anymore? TC aside he's gone to soccer. You're telling he couldn't find a job ANYWHERE in hockey? If you watched the team last year after they went on that 5 game winning streak you knew how good they really were.
Because Mac T wanted to play cowboy and have his own head coach. I think with Kreuger this year we probably would still be out of a playoff spot, but it wouldn't be embarrassing like it is now. I think we'd be in around 10th or so. There needs to be a top down shake up here, that way someone can come in and step on some throats if they need to.

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02-28-2014, 07:52 PM
  #478
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Because Mac T wanted to play cowboy and have his own head coach. I think with Kreuger this year we probably would still be out of a playoff spot, but it wouldn't be embarrassing like it is now. I think we'd be in around 10th or so. There needs to be a top down shake up here, that way someone can come in and step on some throats if they need to.
I don't disagree with the last point but the team wasn't that good under Krueger. They relied on Dubnyk and Khabibulin far too often. They went on a little run, decided that was it and completely flaked it the rest of the way.

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02-28-2014, 08:34 PM
  #479
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From a statistical standpoint, Yakupov has been the Oilers worst defensive forward this season, by a large margin, Eberle has been around average for the team, and Hemsky has been very good.

54 ES and SH goals have been scored against Edm when Yakupov has been on the ice. 55 have been scored against when Eberle has been on the ice, but he has played 40% more ES minutes than Yakupov.

Only 36 have been scored against when Hemsky has been on the ice, even though he has played slightly more ES minutes than Yakupov.

Projected over a full season (1200 minutes, equivalent to 80 games of 15 mins of ES ice time per game), here are the total non-PP GA against each of the Oil fwds.

Yakupov 97
Gagner 82
Hall 76
RNH 72
Smyth 71
Eberle 70
Perron 69
Hemsky 61
Arcobello 60
Gordon 56


There may be a perception that Hemsky and Eberle don't battle in the corners, forecheck, or sustain possession, but fewer goals are scored against the team when Hemsky is on the ice, accounting for ice time, than are scored against when any other top 9 winger is on the ice.

Eberle is pretty much in the middle of the wingers.

Gagner has been the worst defensive center, but a line of Hemsky-Gagner-Eberle is actually better defensively than Hall-RNH-Yakupov (collective full-season GA of 213 vs. 245).

Maybe linemates, line matchups, and zone starts have influenced these numbers, but I doubt they have enough to explain the huge difference between Yakupov's GA totals and Hemsky's, for example.
Hemsky comes off better in the numbers above because he's high priced talent put into bottomsix assignment and seeing similar opposition. Hemsky isn't even on a checking or shutdown line as such in that the Oilers largely don't line match under Eakins. What Hemsky is this year is proverbially a college student being put back into highschool and still with below average results. Hemsky should be outright owning the type of opposition he is seeing this season. One of the big pluses for him should be exploiting teams weaker lines as the better lines are assigned to our topsix.
Its no mystery Hemsky is going to have less GA. The nature of players he's facing don't score a hell of a lot of goals. Combine that with Hemsky seeing a lot of players like Gordon this year that can actually save bacon.

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02-28-2014, 08:35 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by molsonmuscle360 View Post
How was Krueger unsuccessful? He did basically what was asked of him, have the team improve under his watch, which they did. The fact that he wasn't good enough to stick around here, but good enough to set up the gameplans for Team Canada is a bloody joke.
This time last year everybody was complaining about his systems too. All the defensive responsibility was left up to the defensemen and the centers. It wasn't working either. Team collapsed at the 35 game mark when teams had figured it out. I will admit his special teams were much better. I will easily admit he's a superior coach to Eakins and Mactavish will have to answer for that at some point but his European coaching style wasn't going to work here either. Krueger was an intelligent man though and it is possible he could have adapted over time. My main problem with him was the same problem I have with Mactavish. IMO, both of them were extremely questionable hires and until they prove they can win I'll judge them by their win loss records.

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02-28-2014, 08:40 PM
  #481
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Originally Posted by molsonmuscle360 View Post
There needs to be a top down shake up here, that way someone can come in and step on some throats if they need to.
This I agree with you about. I'm at the point where nothing this team does will matter until it happens.

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02-28-2014, 08:41 PM
  #482
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Eakins does suck but everyone likes to b**** and complain about the current line combinations like everything else hasn't been tried and hasn't failed also.

So what's it going to take, 6 coaches in 7 years? 7 coaches in 8 years? or even longer to figure out that the Oilers failures run way deeper then any coach can fix..
Everyone knows the problems run deeper than just the coach, but should we keep a horrifically bad coach just because the organization has no clue what it's doing?

Of course, the team will actually go ahead keep that horrifically bad coach, once again proving what everyone already knows.

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03-01-2014, 01:13 AM
  #483
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Originally Posted by Oi'll say! View Post
Hemsky plays with defensively strong players like Boyd Gordon, guys who can cover his lame defensive play like a puck rushing defenseman gets paired with a stay at home type. He just finished playing with Horc for ten years or whatever.
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Originally Posted by Replacement
Its no mystery Hemsky is going to have less GA. The nature of players he's facing don't score a hell of a lot of goals. Combine that with Hemsky seeing a lot of players like Gordon this year that can actually save bacon.
According to the line combination data on dobbersports, only about 28% of Hemsky's ES shifts this season have been with Gordon. About 25% have been with defensive stalwart Gagner.

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03-01-2014, 10:30 AM
  #484
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Originally Posted by decma View Post
According to the line combination data on dobbersports, only about 28% of Hemsky's ES shifts this season have been with Gordon. About 25% have been with defensive stalwart Gagner.
With all due respect when do these numbers ever add up to 100%.

I think anybody that has ever spent even a modicum of time analyzing line data kind of wonders that.

So I would say if Gordon Makes up 28%, Gagner 25% wheres the rest? The data always seem to underestimate proportion spent.

Or perhaps the data is erroneously labeled and the 28% is the EV proportion of all TOI.

The numbers are real odd. Gagner and Gordon, both being centers are mutually exclusive on this club and rarely if ever play together. So collectively they are supposedly 53% of hemsky EV toi. When I look at numbers like that I start to question. Because I doubt Hemmer has spent 47% on the other two lines.

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03-01-2014, 11:11 AM
  #485
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With all due respect when do these numbers ever add up to 100%.

I think anybody that has ever spent even a modicum of time analyzing line data kind of wonders that.

So I would say if Gordon Makes up 28%, Gagner 25% wheres the rest? The data always seem to underestimate proportion spent.

Or perhaps the data is erroneously labeled and the 28% is the EV proportion of all TOI.

The numbers are real odd. Gagner and Gordon, both being centers are mutually exclusive on this club and rarely if ever play together. So collectively they are supposedly 53% of hemsky EV toi. When I look at numbers like that I start to question. Because I doubt Hemmer has spent 47% on the other two lines.
Arcobello 20%, RNH 14%.

That makes a total of about 87% with the primary Cs. The rest is a combination of time with Hall at C (early season, total 3%), Action, Lander, or 4 on 4 time.

Are there other sites out there that report this stuff?

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03-01-2014, 11:24 AM
  #486
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Arcobello 20%, RNH 14%.

That makes a total of about 87% with the primary Cs. The rest is a combination of time with Hall at C (early season, total 3%), Action, Lander, or 4 on 4 time.

Are there other sites out there that report this stuff?
Yeah "left wing lock" for one, several others that have had the stats.

As I stated the numbers always look odd, understated, and not at all what one would expect from observing.

For instance Left Wing Lock quotes 10.36% being the time this season that Nuge, Hall, Eberle line is on the ice, together, as a proportion of EV minutes of the club. Which is absolute *********.

Any fan watching the Oilers knows Eakins is throwing this line out there 20mins/game EV on a lot of nights and that if theres any line in Edmonton that has been stable its that one.

I have a real hard time believing these numbers and I don't know why they are so often off of being standardized to 1005 but I suspect fairly poor input data and with missing blocks of non data occurring.
Also as stated I suspect the numbers are one thing and being mistakenly called another. I do again think the numbers are referencing proportion of total toi (i.e. 60mins) rather than just EV. In other words a data mess.

If the information was better I would pay more attention to it.

I do thank you for the discussion and input.

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03-01-2014, 12:26 PM
  #487
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Yeah "left wing lock" for one, several others that have had the stats.

As I stated the numbers always look odd, understated, and not at all what one would expect from observing.

For instance Left Wing Lock quotes 10.36% being the time this season that Nuge, Hall, Eberle line is on the ice, together, as a proportion of EV minutes of the club. Which is absolute *********.

Any fan watching the Oilers knows Eakins is throwing this line out there 20mins/game EV on a lot of nights and that if theres any line in Edmonton that has been stable its that one.

I have a real hard time believing these numbers and I don't know why they are so often off of being standardized to 1005 but I suspect fairly poor input data and with missing blocks of non data occurring.
Also as stated I suspect the numbers are one thing and being mistakenly called another. I do again think the numbers are referencing proportion of total toi (i.e. 60mins) rather than just EV. In other words a data mess.

If the information was better I would pay more attention to it.

I do thank you for the discussion and input.
I don't think so.

The NHL keeps official time-on-ice numbers in the form of official shift charts. 5 statisticians compile this data in real time at every game.

Here is the reference to the TOI Shift Report for the last game: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...4/TH020897.HTM

Third party websites probably compile this data and produce different reports from it. Since this is likely done with a script, the accuracy of which has been checked several times during development, it is safe to conclude the data you are dismissing is quite accurate.

If you wish to challenge the accuracy of it, it wouldn't be hard to do. Find a game where the official Report differs from the report of the 3rd party website ...

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03-01-2014, 12:32 PM
  #488
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I don't think so.

The NHL keeps official time-on-ice numbers in the form of official shift charts. 5 statisticians compile this data in real time at every game.

Here is the reference to the TOI Shift Report for the last game: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...4/TH020897.HTM

Third party websites probably compile this data and produce different reports from it. Since this is likely done with a script, the accuracy of which has been checked several times during development, it is safe to conclude the data you are dismissing is quite accurate.

If you wish to challenge the accuracy of it, it wouldn't be hard to do. Find a game where the official Report differs from the report of the 3rd party website ...
I've found it several times.

I've also found instances of games completely disregarded in the dataset. For instance when I informed that Behind the Net stats completely missed a game where our topline was -3 last season. ftr 3 Oiler games after were played and updated on the site. I specifically waited to see if they would catch their mistake. They didn't until it was reported. Causes me not to trust the accuracy of the data too much.

The third party sites are hit and miss.

They apparently don't need to be better either. People already take this data as if it was gospel. But without rigorous evaluation of how accurate the data is.

plus even with statisticians keeping complete data so what. This is a league that has a team playing 6 forwards for 20secs before any official even notices it on ice and after half a dozen players are pointing it out. Hell I've noticed almost entire shifts with too many men that went undetected. This is hockey, guys are flying on and off the ice all the time. Theres going to be so much error in the stats pretty much as a rule. Its real hard to mathematically quantify hockey. Especially line config data.


I think theres a lot more noise in line config stats than is acknowledged.


I think we might like to think that the NHL stats are really perfectly tabulated but I really don't think so. This is a league that puts out real time stats that are so off what game observations are its incredible. I've seen players make half a dozen bone crushing hits in a game and be awarded 2 hits. I've seen the converse as well where a guy through a few taps gets 6hits.


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03-01-2014, 12:59 PM
  #489
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Well, according to the site you are dismissing, RNH, Hall, and Eberle have played together far more than any other combination (10.36% of ES time this season). Gordon, Hemsky, and Smyth are next with 3.9% of ES time.

Recording when a player steps on and off the ice is not as subjective as recording a "hit". BTW, it is clear from your post that you don't know how the NHL defines a "hit". It involves more than body contact.

If you don't know what a "hit" is (according to their definition), how can you say they are not counting it properly?

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03-01-2014, 01:06 PM
  #490
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Well, according to the site you are dismissing, RNH, Hall, and Eberle have played together far more than any other combination (10.36% of ES time this season). Gordon, Hemsky, and Smyth are next with 3.9% of ES time.

Recording when a player steps on and off the ice is not as subjective as recording a "hit". BTW, it is clear from your post that you don't know how the NHL defines a "hit". It involves more than body contact.

If you don't know what a "hit" is (according to their definition), how can you say they are not counting it properly?
Show me where TKA, GVA, HIts etc are defined to exacting degrees and with rigorous rink to rink standardization involved.

Any research I have looked at on the matter point out how much variance there is in the stats reporting from one rink to another.

Hockey stats, a large portion of them, are so much garbage. This not being baseball which is easily quantified.

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03-01-2014, 01:28 PM
  #491
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Show me where TKA, GVA, HIts etc are defined to exacting degrees and with rigorous rink to rink standardization involved.
I don't know where you can find these definitions online. I read a blog article about it some time ago. It may have been by Willis.

Suffice it to say that a "hit" is body contact that results in a loss of possession or control of the puck. Puck possession is part of the requirement.

So, a lot of these thunderous bodychecks you are referring to - which occur after the puck is gone - are not "hits" per se. Hendricks' hit on Prosser the other night being one such example.

The force of it doesn't matter. It is whether the player on the receiving end is in possession, and the contact results in him losing possession.

I would imagine a book like the NHL Compendium would have the official definitions, but it is not available online that I am aware of.

In any event, since you are the one accusing the official record of being inaccurate, you bear the burden of proof here, and that includes proving the definition.

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Any research I have looked at on the matter point out how much variance there is in the stats reporting from one rink to another.
... but this wouldn't effect data within a team, since the same group of statisticians are always recording the TOI data at every Oiler game (whether this is at home or on the road). This discrepancy would only exist when you are comparing data between teams.

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Hockey stats, a large portion of them, are so much garbage. This not being baseball which is easily quantified.
As I've already said, TOI data is measurable with a high degree of accuracy, so long as enough people are watching and recording - which is in fact the case in NHL buildings.

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03-01-2014, 01:33 PM
  #492
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Isn't this thread supposed to be about how much Eakins sucks?

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03-01-2014, 01:35 PM
  #493
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[QUOTE]
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Originally Posted by Red Deer Rebel View Post
I don't know where you can find these definitions online. I read a blog article about it some time ago. It may have been by Willis.

Suffice it to say that a "hit" is body contact that results in a loss of possession or control of the puck. Puck possession is part of the requirement.

So, a lot of these thunderous bodychecks you are referring to - which occur after the puck is gone - are not "hits" per se. Hendricks' hit on Prosser the other night being one such example.

The force of it doesn't matter. It is whether the player on the receiving end is in possession, and the contact results in him losing possession.

I would imagine a book like the NHL Compendium would have the official definitions, but it is not available online that I am aware of.

In any event, since you are the one accusing the official record of being inaccurate, you bear the burden of proof here, and that includes proving the definition.
Thanks, respectfully. Its not through lack of effort on my part either. I've searched the NHL site up to down looking for any definitions of its realtime stats. Not easy to find as you mention.

You are correct, I didn't know the exacting definition, but then again how would I? I'm a data purist. Any dataset worth its salt makes its data headings immediately available and defined to limit any confusion. This being minimum expectation really with any mathematical display of data.

Quote:
... but this wouldn't effect data within a team, since the same group of statisticians are always recording the TOI data at every Oiler game (whether this is at home or on the road). This discrepancy would only exist when you are comparing data between teams.
for sure. But just citing the lack of standardization.

Quote:
As I've already said, TOI data is measurable with a high degree of accuracy, so long as enough people are watching and recording - which is in fact the case in NHL buildings.
Well hopefully. I have some doubts, but much moreso on the 3rd party data and scripts.

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03-01-2014, 01:36 PM
  #494
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Isn't this thread supposed to be about how much Eakins sucks?
Whoops, Eakins sucks. I forget to define that for the 15th time.

I think its a foregone conclusion by now and not even up for discussion.

But that would be my opinion.

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03-01-2014, 01:53 PM
  #495
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It won't matter who you get to coach as long as we have this brutal defence our team is bound to lose.

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03-02-2014, 12:57 AM
  #496
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Is there any way this guy can be fired this year? Surely if he finishes with the worst record in Oilers history he's gotta go, right? Here's hoping we go 5-14-1 in the final 20.

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03-02-2014, 01:26 AM
  #497
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You know you're bad when Rob Brown can no longer defend you. I wonder how long until Stauffer and Reed stop living in lalaland.

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03-02-2014, 02:29 AM
  #498
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Just way in over his head. I still think he's going to walk away after this season before his coaching reputation is permanently destroyed. He still acts like none of this is his or the coaching staff's fault.

He's just not a good enough coach to turn this thing around. He wasn't going to get buy in unless the team met with early success and wins and now the coaches think its the players fault while the players think its the coaches fault. Everybody needs to go.

A coach that comes in here has to meet with quick success if the players are ever going to respect him and buy in. Hard to believe we were in a playoff spot last year with krueger and now with better players than last year this team is playing and performing far worse. The whole staff needs to go this time. Eakins, Acton, all the assistants and Chabot. GTFO. There needs to be some changes in the scouting and development department as well. The organization as a whole has done a very poor job of getting these players to their full potential.

Players we have can turn it around here but they need a coach they can believe in and that truly believes in and respects them. I bet a lot of this team really regrets not playing harder for Ralph last year because the situation now is far worse.


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03-02-2014, 02:36 AM
  #499
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Complete dumpster fire.

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03-02-2014, 04:21 AM
  #500
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The most disheartening thing about this is Eakins basically got a second chance here to run another training camp in effect over the Olympic break and get the guys to buy in to whatever system it is that he has, and taking in what he's learned about the team ... yet they come out and play some of the worst hockey of the year.

This team has completely tuned him out.

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