HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Pittsburgh Penguins
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Magic Numbers Thread

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
10-29-2013, 03:58 PM
  #1
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Magic Numbers Thread

So I really miss the old zorak site that seems to have disappeared entirely. Plus, realignment makes things... interesting. So I figured I'd write up a program that can determine magic numbers and do some simple points projections for fun.

It's early in the season, so magic numbers aren't terribly relevant yet, but I figured it was a good time to get some input on the formatting of the output, so I have time to refine it before the numbers do become meaningful. Bear in mind I fiddle with this in limited spare time, so yes, I may well need several months to make it better!

Also - I have to hand-input the data currently. Scraping it from NHL.com is something I'd like to do automatically, but, again, I only fiddle with this in my limited spare time.

If people find this helpful, I'll continue to update the results occasionally during the season. If there are suggestions for improvements to the presentation, they are welcome, though bear in mind I really am writing this in spurts of a few minutes here and there.


Teams that project to be in a wildcard spot are marked with a 'W' in the Projected Points column.
Top 3 in division are separated from the others by a column or row as appropriate.

Updated with results of games through 03/13/14:
Eastern Conference Magic Numbers
Atlantic vs Atlantic
BOS:BOS:---TOR:15TBL:16xMTL:14DET:12OTT:9FLO:XXXBUF:XXX 
TOR:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:27DET:25OTT:22FLO:7BUF:XXX 
TBL:BOS:---TOR:31TBL:---xMTL:30DET:28OTT:25FLO:10BUF:1 
MTL:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:28OTT:25FLO:10BUF:1 
DET:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:31FLO:16BUF:7 
OTT:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:19BUF:10 
FLO:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:---BUF:23 
BUF:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:---BUF:--- 
Atlantic vs Metropolitan
BOS:PIT:---PHI:14CLB:13xNYR:11NJD:10WSH:7CAR:6NYI:XXX 
TOR:PIT:---PHI:27CLB:26xNYR:24NJD:23WSH:20CAR:19NYI:9 
TBL:PIT:---PHI:30CLB:29xNYR:27NJD:26WSH:23CAR:22NYI:12 
MTL:PIT:---PHI:30CLB:29xNYR:27NJD:26WSH:23CAR:22NYI:12 
DET:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:33NJD:32WSH:29CAR:28NYI:18 
OTT:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:32CAR:31NYI:21 
FLO:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:---CAR:---NYI:--- 
BUF:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:---CAR:---NYI:--- 
Metropolitan vs Metropolitan
PIT:PIT:---PHI:15CLB:14xNYR:12NJD:11WSH:8CAR:7NYI:XXX 
PHI:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:33xNYR:31NJD:30WSH:27CAR:26NYI:16 
CLB:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:30NJD:29WSH:26CAR:25NYI:15 
NYR:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:29WSH:26CAR:25NYI:15 
NJD:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:29CAR:28NYI:18 
WSH:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:---CAR:29NYI:19 
CAR:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:---CAR:---NYI:22 
NYI:PIT:---PHI:---CLB:---xNYR:---NJD:---WSH:---CAR:---NYI:--- 
Metropolitan vs Atlantic
PIT:BOS:33TOR:16TBL:17xMTL:15DET:13OTT:10FLO:XXXBUF:XXX 
PHI:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:34DET:32OTT:29FLO:14BUF:5 
CLB:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:31OTT:28FLO:13BUF:4 
NYR:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:28FLO:13BUF:4 
NJD:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:31FLO:16BUF:7 
WSH:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:17BUF:8 
CAR:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:20BUF:11 
NYI:BOS:---TOR:---TBL:---xMTL:---DET:---OTT:---FLO:28BUF:19 

Western Conference Magic Numbers
Central vs Central
STL:STL:---COL:26CHI:25xMIN:14DAL:11WPG:2NSH:1 
COL:STL:---COL:---CHI:31xMIN:20DAL:17WPG:8NSH:7 
CHI:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:21DAL:18WPG:9NSH:8 
MIN:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:29WPG:20NSH:19 
DAL:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:25NSH:24 
WPG:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:---NSH:29 
NSH:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:---NSH:--- 
Central vs Pacific
STL:ANA:28SJS:26LAK:15xPHO:6VAN:1CAL:XXXEDM:XXX 
COL:ANA:---SJS:32LAK:21xPHO:12VAN:7CAL:XXXEDM:XXX 
CHI:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:22xPHO:13VAN:8CAL:1EDM:XXX 
MIN:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:24VAN:19CAL:12EDM:5 
DAL:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:29VAN:24CAL:17EDM:10 
WPG:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:29CAL:22EDM:15 
NSH:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:32CAL:25EDM:18 
Pacific vs Pacific
ANA:ANA:---SJS:30LAK:19xPHO:10VAN:5CAL:XXXEDM:XXX 
SJS:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:19xPHO:10VAN:5CAL:XXXEDM:XXX 
LAK:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:21VAN:16CAL:9EDM:2 
PHO:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:25CAL:18EDM:11 
VAN:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:---CAL:21EDM:14 
CAL:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:---CAL:---EDM:25 
EDM:ANA:---SJS:---LAK:---xPHO:---VAN:---CAL:---EDM:--- 
Pacific vs Central
ANA:STL:---COL:30CHI:29xMIN:18DAL:15WPG:6NSH:5 
SJS:STL:---COL:30CHI:29xMIN:18DAL:15WPG:6NSH:5 
LAK:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:29DAL:26WPG:17NSH:16 
PHO:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:26NSH:25 
VAN:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:---NSH:28 
CAL:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:---NSH:--- 
EDM:STL:---COL:---CHI:---xMIN:---DAL:---WPG:---NSH:--- 

Metropolitan Division
PosTeamDivGPPtsROWProjPts
1PITMET659239116.062
2PHIMET65733092.0923
3CLBMET66743091.9394
--------------------------
4NYRMET67743190.5672 W
5NJDMET66712988.2121
6WSHMET67702285.6716
7CARMET66672883.2424
8NYIMET67591972.209

Atlantic Division
PosTeamDivGPPtsROWProjPts
1BOSATL669342115.545
2TORATL68802796.4706
3TBLATL66772995.6667
--------------------------
4MTLATL67773094.2388 W
5DETATL65712589.5692
6OTTATL65682585.7846
7FLOATL66551768.3333
8BUFATL66461357.1515

Central Division
PosTeamDivGPPtsROWProjPts
1STLCEN669737120.515
2COLCEN669140113.061
3CHICEN669033111.818
--------------------------
4MINCEN66792898.1515 W
5DALCEN65742993.3538 W
6WPGCEN67692484.4478
7NSHCEN66662782

Pacific Division
PosTeamDivGPPtsROWProjPts
1ANAPAC669341115.545
2SJSPAC679333113.821
3LAKPAC678232100.358
--------------------------
4PHOPAC67732689.3433
5VANPAC68702684.4118
6CALPAC66592273.303
7EDMPAC67542066.0896


Last edited by Freeptop: 03-14-2014 at 04:04 PM. Reason: Updated magic numbers and standings 03/13/14
Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
10-29-2013, 04:08 PM
  #2
Darth Vitale
Moderator
Dark Matter
 
Darth Vitale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Victoryville
Country: United States
Posts: 25,975
vCash: 500
Too much time on your hands... you've got it.

But if you're willing to update it for the next 70 games, by all means.

Darth Vitale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
10-31-2013, 09:31 AM
  #3
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with last night's results.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-04-2013, 09:31 AM
  #4
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with the weekend's results.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-21-2013, 12:35 PM
  #5
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with results through last night's games.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-25-2013, 12:08 PM
  #6
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with results through last night's games.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-09-2013, 09:24 AM
  #7
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with results through last night's games.
If anyone was actually looking forward to this, sorry for the wait!

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-16-2013, 12:10 PM
  #8
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Time for the more-or-less weekly update! All results are through last night's games (12/15/2013).

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 01:25 PM
  #9
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with games through 01/02/14.

Also, I've been working on an update to my program that produces these to create a forward projection based on each team's record in the last 10 games (this is something the old zorak site used to have). Would anyone be interested in that other than me? (I'd rather not waste my time if not).

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2014, 10:39 AM
  #10
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with games through 01/09/14.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2014, 03:39 PM
  #11
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with games through 1/15/14.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-16-2014, 03:49 PM
  #12
Jaded-Fan
Registered User
 
Jaded-Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 34,216
vCash: 500
Any chance of at some point adding a magic number column regarding Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy?

Jaded-Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-06-2014, 11:36 AM
  #13
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Any chance of at some point adding a magic number column regarding Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy?
You can't really make a magic number for something where there isn't a finite supply of points, so, no.

Magic Number table has now been updated through last night's games. I hadn't realized it had been quite so long since the last update, either.

For the record, the Pens' magic number for the playoffs now stands at 30, and the magic number for clinching the division is 33.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-06-2014, 11:52 AM
  #14
Jaded-Fan
Registered User
 
Jaded-Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 34,216
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freeptop View Post
You can't really make a magic number for something where there isn't a finite supply of points, so, no.

Magic Number table has now been updated through last night's games. I hadn't realized it had been quite so long since the last update, either.

For the record, the Pens' magic number for the playoffs now stands at 30, and the magic number for clinching the division is 33.
So basically any combination of 7 wins by the Pens or losses by the Rangers in the remaining 25 games for each means that we have the division. I believe that it would be any combination of 12 wins by the Pens or losses by the Bruins in the remaining 25 games for the Pens and 27 games remaining for the Bruins means that we have the Conference.

Both seem pretty much sure things. I know 10 points ahead in the conference with 25/27 games remaining seems like a lot of time to overcome the deficit, but in reality that is a pretty huge gap. It is rare that gaps like that are overcome in sports.

As for Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy, stick a fork in that one too. Even if he God forbid got injured he very well still could maintain his lead, it is that big.

Jaded-Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-25-2014, 09:02 AM
  #15
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
With games about to start up again after the Olympics, I figured this was the right time to update the magic number chart.

For those who don't want to have to go through the charts to figure it out:
Penguins' Magic Number for Playoffs: 28
For the Division: 30
For the Conference: 45

And for those interested in the President's Trophy Race:
Pens Magic Number for the President's Trophy is: 51 (though they can only earn 48 more points themselves, so they'll need help).

Broken down a bit more, their magic numbers against their closest rivals for the President's Trophy are:
Blues: 51
Ducks: 48
Bruins: 45
Blackhawks: 45
Sharks: 43

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-12-2014, 12:48 PM
  #16
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
Updated with standings through 3/11/14 games.

Pens Magic Number for Playoffs: 11
For the Division: 15
For the Conference: 33

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-14-2014, 04:09 PM
  #17
Freeptop
Registered User
 
Freeptop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,102
vCash: 500
As we're getting into the stretch run to the playoffs, I'm going to attempt to update more often. We'll see if I succeed...

Updated with standing through 3/13/14 games.

Pens Magic Numbers
For Playoffs: 11
For the Division: 15
For the Conference: 33

The Pens are already guaranteed to finish better than the Islanders, Panthers and Sabres.

Freeptop is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:43 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.