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2013-14 Magic Number/Elimination thread (6th Annual Edition)

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Old
03-13-2014, 10:45 AM
  #51
hatterson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyTML View Post
Damn....you're right..


Jumped the gun on that one!!

Well caught

Scratch what I said people...no thing to see here...move along...maybe tomorrow
Yep, soonest we can have an elimination scenario is tomorrow evening.

LA earning more points than Edmonton tonight sets up an elimination scenario tomorrow.

The Sabres, regardless of what happens tonight, will have an elimination scenario on Saturday. Tonight just affects how "easy" that scenario is.

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03-14-2014, 12:37 AM
  #52
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Updated through 3/13/2014

We did have our first elimination. Buffalo can finish with a maximum of 78 points, while the 3rd- and 4th-place teams in the Atlantic both have 77. However, they play each other (April 1), but I'll go ahead and call Buffalo eliminated from the Atlantic Division race at this point.

The NY Rangers have fallen back into the elimination side, while Detroit moves back up into an Eastern wild card spot.

With the Phoenix regulation loss, everyone in the playoff spots in the Western Conference moved at least two points closer to clinching.

I am unlikely to be available tomorrow night at all. Please do not panic; I'll update Saturday evening if possible, Sunday afternoon if not.

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03-14-2014, 02:09 PM
  #53
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Just looking at the conference match ups as of today...In the east you have CBJ/NYR in one of the series with only 74 points each and 2 other series have teams with more points than either of those 2 teams..Boston/Philly seems reasonable...

Seems unfair that 2 teams with only 74 points face each other...

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Old
03-14-2014, 05:22 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Budddy View Post
Just looking at the conference match ups as of today...In the east you have CBJ/NYR in one of the series with only 74 points each and 2 other series have teams with more points than either of those 2 teams..Boston/Philly seems reasonable...

Seems unfair that 2 teams with only 74 points face each other...
Well its a good thing there are a few weeks left then isn't it

lol

Well see how it all plays out in the end!

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Old
03-15-2014, 10:28 PM
  #55
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We've got our first elimination scenario tomorrow. Buffalo will be mathematically eliminated if the Flyers get at least 1 point or if the Sabres lose.

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Old
03-16-2014, 12:27 AM
  #56
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Updated through games of 3/15/2014

Boston has taken control of the Eastern Conference from Pittsburgh

For tomorrow...
Buffalo can be eliminated from the playoff race with a loss of any type against Montreal OR a win or OT/SO loss by Philadelphia against Pittsburgh

Edmonton can be eliminated from the divisional playoff race with a regulation loss against Carolina

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Old
03-16-2014, 09:29 PM
  #57
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I love this thread! Thanks for doing this!

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Old
03-16-2014, 10:11 PM
  #58
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The earliest we can have a clinching scenario is Wednesday now with St. Louis. They would have to get at least 3 out of 4 pts in the next 2 and hope the coyotes lose tomorrow to do it. The magic numbers to hard clinch right now are 103 in the east (controlled by the rangers at the moment) and 104 in the west (controlled by the coyotes at the moment).

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03-16-2014, 10:58 PM
  #59
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Updated through 3/16/2014

From today...

Buffalo has been eliminated from the playoff picture.

Montreal and Toronto continue to flip; Montreal is now back into the divisional hunt, with Toronto being knocked down into the wild card.

For tomorrow...

Edmonton can be eliminated from a divisional playoff spot with a win of any type by Los Angeles against Phoenix.

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Old
03-17-2014, 02:00 AM
  #60
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Can someone just quickly explain the numbers to me? For example Toronto's magic number is 23. Does that mean they have to get 23 more points to clinch a playoff spot?

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Old
03-17-2014, 02:20 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rj24 View Post
Can someone just quickly explain the numbers to me? For example Toronto's magic number is 23. Does that mean they have to get 23 more points to clinch a playoff spot?
the number is a combination of toronto points gained and the cutoff team's points lost. Right now that team in the east is Washington I believe. So you subtract from that number for every point Toronto earns (win a game? subtract 2!) and for every point lost by the cutoff team (washington loses in OT? subtract 1 point). Though of course, as I said, the cutoff team can vary based on the present standings.

Hope that makes sense...

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Old
03-17-2014, 03:06 AM
  #62
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Leafs will get knocked down to WC spot tomorrow if TB wins against the Canucks. And thanks for keeping this updated.

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Old
03-17-2014, 07:39 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Budddy View Post
Just looking at the conference match ups as of today...In the east you have CBJ/NYR in one of the series with only 74 points each and 2 other series have teams with more points than either of those 2 teams..Boston/Philly seems reasonable...

Seems unfair that 2 teams with only 74 points face each other...
Last week, XM Radio was expecting some fans not liking new divisional playoff seeding format. Today's EC standings:

1) Bos 95
2) Pitt 92
3) Mon 81
4) Tor 80
5) Tam 79
6) Phi 77
7) Cbj 76
8) Nyr 76

Yet, brackets would look like:

ATLANTIC
1) Bos vs 8) Nyr
3) Mon vs 4) Tor

METRO
2) Pitt vs 5) Tam
6) Phi vs 7) Cbj

The new divisional rivalry idea should be fun, but I can understand if final standings were to end this way, that Toronto fans would be upset being a road team at Montreal for first round. Or, Tampa fans feeling slighted because they have to play Pens in first round.

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Old
03-17-2014, 08:13 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rj24 View Post
Can someone just quickly explain the numbers to me? For example Toronto's magic number is 23. Does that mean they have to get 23 more points to clinch a playoff spot?
From what I understand, the magic number is the combination of how many points a team must get and how many points the 9th team (at any given time) must lose for the team to clinch. I think.

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Old
03-17-2014, 10:05 AM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
From what I understand, the magic number is the combination of how many points a team must get and how many points the 9th team (at any given time) must lose for the team to clinch. I think.
Yep. Only problem is, the magic number is unrealistically too high when there's 10-20 games left. You basically assume that all the teams behind you win all their games. Regardless of the games played between them, it's statistically ridiculous to assume that #7-8-9-10 etc teams will win 15 games in a row.

The magic number starts making sense when there's less than 10 games left. And even then.

At this point in the season, I'd rather go with the sportsclubstat.com approach. So far, they project that a team with 92 or 93 points (maybe 93-94 for the west) would have 90-95% chance of being in the playoffs. So basically, whatever your team needs to do to reach that should be enough.

If you're really incapable of dealing with a 5% uncertainity, just assume that your team needs 95 points to be in the playoffs.

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Old
03-17-2014, 10:45 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
Yep. Only problem is, the magic number is unrealistically too high when there's 10-20 games left. You basically assume that all the teams behind you win all their games. Regardless of the games played between them, it's statistically ridiculous to assume that #7-8-9-10 etc teams will win 15 games in a row.

The magic number starts making sense when there's less than 10 games left. And even then.

At this point in the season, I'd rather go with the sportsclubstat.com approach. So far, they project that a team with 92 or 93 points (maybe 93-94 for the west) would have 90-95% chance of being in the playoffs. So basically, whatever your team needs to do to reach that should be enough.

If you're really incapable of dealing with a 5% uncertainity, just assume that your team needs 95 points to be in the playoffs.
That's the entire point of a "magic" number though. If you get there it 100% guarantees you lock up the spot. It's not a "as long as the absurd/borderline impossible doesn't happen, this'll do" number.

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Old
03-17-2014, 11:02 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
From what I understand, the magic number is the combination of how many points a team must get and how many points the 9th team (at any given time) must lose for the team to clinch. I think.
Thanks! Makes sense to me now.

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Old
03-17-2014, 11:39 AM
  #68
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Just a small correction Leidi J, the rangers control what the magic number is at the current moment not the caps. The rangers can max out at 102 pts while the caps can only max out at 100 pts. The best way to do is it just assume everyone in the standings win out and then you see the top 8 point totals to determine what the hard number to clinch is.

Doing that you'd see the east standings like this:
1) Boston- 125
2) Pittsburgh- 122
3) Tampa- 109
4) Montreal- 107
5) Philly- 107
6) Columbus- 106
7) Toronto- 106
8) Detroit- 103
9) NY Rangers- 102

So as you can see 103 is the magic number in the east at the current moment. As it has been said already though the final number to clinch will not be 103 since there is still a lot of head to head match ups and 3 pt games still on the horizon that will skew the number.

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Old
03-17-2014, 11:44 AM
  #69
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If the season ended today in the West:

1) St. Louis 99 pts
2) Anaheim 97 pts
3) San Jose 97 pts
4) Colorado 93 pts
5) Chicago 92 pts
6) Los Angeles 82 pts
7) Minnesota 80 pts
8) Dallas 75 pts


Central:
1) St. Louis v. 8) Dallas
4) Colorado v. 5) Chicago

Pacific:
2) Anaheim v 7) Minnesota
3) San Jose v 6) Los Angeles


So in other words, exactly how it would have been with the old format.

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Old
03-17-2014, 12:31 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
Yep. Only problem is, the magic number is unrealistically too high when there's 10-20 games left. You basically assume that all the teams behind you win all their games. Regardless of the games played between them, it's statistically ridiculous to assume that #7-8-9-10 etc teams will win 15 games in a row.

The magic number starts making sense when there's less than 10 games left. And even then.

At this point in the season, I'd rather go with the sportsclubstat.com approach. So far, they project that a team with 92 or 93 points (maybe 93-94 for the west) would have 90-95% chance of being in the playoffs. So basically, whatever your team needs to do to reach that should be enough.

If you're really incapable of dealing with a 5% uncertainity, just assume that your team needs 95 points to be in the playoffs.
You're forgetting something: I live in Ohio. And if there's one thing that recent presidential elections and a lifetime of following Cleveland sports have taught us all, it's to never project anything even with 99.999% certainty and then say "good enough".

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03-17-2014, 02:43 PM
  #71
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thanks for this.

Vancouver has a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs.

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Old
03-17-2014, 03:50 PM
  #72
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thanks for this.

Vancouver has a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Really? That high?? hahahahah



Looks like the only elimination scenario is Edmonton being eliminated from the Divisional positions with LA picking up a Win.

Correct me if I am wrong, I have been before! Also I am using a very crude spreadsheet. Nothing nearly as impressive as what Mayor Bee Likely uses hahahaah

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Old
03-18-2014, 12:21 AM
  #73
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Updated through 3/17/2014

For tomorrow...

Edmonton can be eliminated from the divisional race with a regulation loss against Nashville

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Old
03-18-2014, 12:41 AM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
You're forgetting something: I live in Ohio. And if there's one thing that recent presidential elections and a lifetime of following Cleveland sports have taught us all, it's to never project anything even with 99.999% certainty and then say "good enough".
Just to be really on the safe side, maybe you should start the thread at the beginning of the season!

Joking aside, I'm now thinking of a plot of the magic number vs. time. It would start very high and then slowly go down to something around 93.

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Old
03-19-2014, 12:20 AM
  #75
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Updated through 3/18/2014

For tomorrow...

Winnipeg can be eliminated from the divisional race with a regulation loss against Colorado AND a Chicago win or OT/SO loss against St. Louis.

Nashville can be eliminated from the divisional race with a regulation loss against Vancouver, OR with a Chicago win against St. Louis AND a Colorado win against Winnipeg

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