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Old
02-05-2004, 06:05 PM
  #1
jadeddog
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special teams rankings

ok, the other thread about the PK got me thinking about specialty teams and the resulting correlation to overall placement in the standings...... so i figured out a teams overall goals scored - goals allowed while on special teams (ie. (PP goals + SH goals) - (PP goals allowed + SH goals allowed))..... here is the resulting stats with that teams overall standings placement in brackets beside

ottawa +20 (8)
detroit +20 (2)
colorado +16 (1)
tampa bay +15 (11)
new jersey +12 (6)
philadelphia +11 (4)
vanouver +9 (3)
calgary +9 (14)
san jose +9 (9)
toronto +8 (5)
ny islanders +4 (16)
nashville +3 (13)
montreal +3 (12)
minnesota +2 (18)
columbus +1 (28)
anaheim +1 (25)
atlanta -1 (23)
buffalo -1 (21)
dallas -3 (10)
st. louis -3 (17)
washington -5 (27)
florida -7 (24)
phoenix -10 (20)
los angeles -10 (15)
boston -11 (7)
carolina -14 (26)
chicago -15 (29)
edmonton -20 (19)
ny rangers -21 (22)
pittsburgh -22 (30)

its not so clear with the numbers, so i made a chart:


from this, it is pretty clear that there is a rather strong correlation.... i suspect that it would be even stronger if i eliminated the extremes (like a good stat student should, lol) but i was too lazy to do so

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Old
02-05-2004, 06:42 PM
  #2
Matts
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Dal, LA and Bos

Top 13 teams in terms of those stats would also make the playoffs. The only three exceptions are listed above.

Last year I compiled the numbers of teams who had stolen 3rd period points, ie came back to gain either one or two points when trailing after 40, as opposed to teams that had blown the most.

And the teams who were best at protecting leads and stealing points were the playoff teams. In fact the Oilers were the worst team in this regard to make the playoffs.

As for how the ST stats impact the Oil, well Edm is a great ES team but ST play and terrible netminding from Salo will eventually sink this team this season.

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Old
02-05-2004, 07:46 PM
  #3
jadeddog
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it makes you wonder what a 1.5-2% increase in each SP stat would mean though eh? if they were just a *little* bit better at SP i think they would be right in the 6-9 hunt ..... oh well, at least simpson is an ex-oiler!! god forbid we hire a SP coach who is from outside the organization but could actually help the team, that wouldnt many *any* sense..... right? .............. right?

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Old
02-05-2004, 07:58 PM
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Chayos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
Top 13 teams in terms of those stats would also make the playoffs. The only three exceptions are listed above.

Last year I compiled the numbers of teams who had stolen 3rd period points, ie came back to gain either one or two points when trailing after 40, as opposed to teams that had blown the most.

And the teams who were best at protecting leads and stealing points were the playoff teams. In fact the Oilers were the worst team in this regard to make the playoffs.

As for how the ST stats impact the Oil, well Edm is a great ES team but ST play and terrible netminding from Salo will eventually sink this team this season.
I think that ship has sailed actually. The realisty is bad goaltending killed us in dec'

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02-05-2004, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chayos1
I think that ship has sailed actually. The realisty is bad goaltending killed us in dec'
Poor team play killed this team... no consistant secondary scoring, and a terrible pk were also a huge factor.... not just goaltending.

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Old
02-05-2004, 10:34 PM
  #6
HOZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Poor team play killed this team... no consistant secondary scoring, and a terrible pk were also a huge factor.... not just goaltending.
Lets just agree that they suck. But at least we're not Calgary.

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Old
02-06-2004, 01:29 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
Last year I compiled the numbers of teams who had stolen 3rd period points, ie came back to gain either one or two points when trailing after 40, as opposed to teams that had blown the most.
Interesting, but is it causal or not? For example one would expect the best teams would be better at holding leads and coming back from deficits. I don't think anyone would be surprised if that's the case.

The fact that the Oilers bucked the trend might be hope for this year, no? Did you happen to find any stats that said what they did to overcome their putrid end game?

BTW, I just noticed on the Chicago game telecast (Fox Chicago feed) that Oilers were #2 league wide at that time in the third period in terms of goal differential (54 GF, 35 GA , +19 tied with Wings and behind Leafs who were +26 at that time). Naively this might be considered good since that indicates they will tend to close out when ahead (and indeed this is the case this year). However it also might suggest that they spend too much time trying to play catch up!

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Old
02-06-2004, 01:36 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
from this, it is pretty clear that there is a rather strong correlation.... i suspect that it would be even stronger if i eliminated the extremes (like a good stat student should, lol) but i was too lazy to do so
Yeah, but isn't that Edmonton there as an outlier? The only worse outliers seem to be Anaheim and Los Angeles. I'm not sure why you'd try to artificially eliminate outliers if they have a reason. For example, the Oilers might just be an example of a team that's great ES but poor on ST, and as such is just another way to skin the cat?

I'd be interested in seeing how the ST correlates to home/road loss differential. A team that relies on their high-end talent on their top line would presumably be much better on home ice with home advantage. A team that is mediocre throughout would presumably not care much if they're on the road since it wouldn't matter as much which line goes up against the top defense. If I recall correctly the Oilers are a team that is pretty even on road and home this year. If high end talent corresponds to good ST differential, then you'd expect to see high ST differential correlated to high home/road loss differential. Would anyone be able to quickly pump out that chart? It might be revealing?

Edit: actually GF-GA differential might be a better thing to correlate to rather than loss differential since a good team might win both road and home games but a home advantage due to good matchups would show up in the blowouts.

Thanks for the interesting posts people!


Last edited by oilswell: 02-06-2004 at 01:39 AM.
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Old
02-06-2004, 10:20 AM
  #9
Matts
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Different way to skin a cat for sure

nothing bugs me more than seeing my team blow a lead when leading after 40. This doesn't happen to good teams in today's league and it's nice to see the Oilers finally following suit.

That being said, now they've found other ways to give away points and this year it was the PK more than anything else. Last year the Devils were 1st in the league but had the worst PP. I'm pretty sure the B's were first overall in the East and last in PP back in '02 as well.

So I'd argue you have a much better chance to win with a terrible PP than terrible PK. Because these are the days when goals are so hard to come by and to go 14 straight games giving up at last one goal was death.

The Oilers had some great efforts that were sabotaged by their penalty killing. Ties were turned into one goal losses and wins were turned into ties. The games in Phx and SJ were good examples of that.


Last edited by Matts: 02-06-2004 at 10:22 AM. Reason: content
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Old
02-06-2004, 03:55 PM
  #10
oilswell
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
So I'd argue you have a much better chance to win with a terrible PP than terrible PK. Because these are the days when goals are so hard to come by and to go 14 straight games giving up at last one goal was death.
I'm tempted to belive this theory and its explanation (ie goals are hard to come by). However what is wrong with the reasoning that your PK+PP should be 100% or more if you're going to win? That is, assuming the penalties tend to be about even (or slightly on your side in the case of the Oilers since nobody is scared of their PP).

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Old
02-06-2004, 04:41 PM
  #11
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arent the oilers like 14-0 after leading after two periods or something?

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