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Pens' First 41 Games Vs Last 41 Games

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Old
04-10-2014, 01:10 AM
  #1
Sidney the Kidney
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Pens' First 41 Games Vs Last 41 Games

Just for curiosity's sake, I wondered how the Pens' first half of this season compares to the second half. The numbers aren't very flattering to the Pens.

Pen's record:
First 41 games: 29-11-1 = 59 pts (134 GF - 94 GA)
*Second 41 games: 22-13-4 = 48 pts (110 GF - 106 GA)

*Note: the second half is based on 39 games. The Pens have two remaining games, so at best you can add two more wins to those totals.

I think the record is a reflection of how this team seems to be getting more sloppy, not less sloppy, as the playoffs draw closer. Both their record and their GF/GA differential show a team that is trending in the opposite direction than what you'd hope heading into the playoffs.

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04-10-2014, 01:29 AM
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LetangInTheSO
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These numbers actually aren't quite as skewed as I would have guessed. I'd like to see the statistic for how many times we've allowed the first goal in the last 41 games.

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04-10-2014, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by LetangInTheSO View Post
These numbers actually aren't quite as skewed as I would have guessed. I'd like to see the statistic for how many times we've allowed the first goal in the last 41 games.
Aren't they? Over a full season, the Pens' first half pace was just under 120 points (118). Over a full season, the Pens' second half pace would be under 100 points. Still good enough to make the playoffs, but hardly the "elite" team that folks defending Bylsma/the roster would have you believe they are.

The GF/GA differential is also a bit alarming. The team was a collective +40 over the first 41 games. The team is only a collective +4 over the second 39 games. It's giving up way more goals (106 to 94), while scoring a lot less (134 to 110). IMO, that highlights how much this team has struggled during the second half of the season.

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04-10-2014, 01:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
Aren't they? Over a full season, the Pens' first half pace was just under 120 points (118). Over a full season, the Pens' second half pace would be under 100 points. Still good enough to make the playoffs, but hardly the "elite" team that folks defending Bylsma/the roster would have you believe they are.

The GF/GA differential is also a bit alarming. The team was a collective +40 over the first 41 games. The team is only a collective +4 over the second 39 games. It's giving up way more goals (106 to 94), while scoring a lot less (134 to 110). IMO, that highlights how much this team has struggled during the second half of the season.
Obviously we've been worse in the second half and the numbers reflect it. I'm just surprised that the second half numbers are as good as they are. This has been a capital b Bad team for the last few months.

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04-10-2014, 01:47 AM
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The interesting number I want to see is PP/PK numbers against top 6 teams in the NHL. It has to be miserable. I figured as much the 2nd half was bad. We look bad right now.

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04-10-2014, 04:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
Just for curiosity's sake, I wondered how the Pens' first half of this season compares to the second half. The numbers aren't very flattering to the Pens.

Pen's record:
First 41 games: 29-11-1 = 59 pts (134 GF - 94 GA)
*Second 41 games: 22-13-4 = 48 pts (110 GF - 106 GA)

*Note: the second half is based on 39 games. The Pens have two remaining games, so at best you can add two more wins to those totals.

I think the record is a reflection of how this team seems to be getting more sloppy, not less sloppy, as the playoffs draw closer. Both their record and their GF/GA differential show a team that is trending in the opposite direction than what you'd hope heading into the playoffs.
I think there are two main variables as to why this has occurred.

1. Maatta and to a lesser extent Niskanen have had a precipitous drop in the quality of their play. Maatta the first 50 or so games save one bad stretch looked incredible and played well beyond his years. He's 19, I'm not overly concerned but yeah the young man has hit a wall. Nisky to some degree has himself.

2. CHEMISTRY or lack thereof! The constant injuries, the many call ups and the musical chairs with the lines have clearly taken a toll.

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04-10-2014, 12:08 PM
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It's actually more stark if you look at their record before and after the Olympic break.

Before: 40-15-3
After: 11-9-2

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04-10-2014, 12:12 PM
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someone do a deep analytical breakdown of this team with and without Orpik

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04-10-2014, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
someone do a deep analytical breakdown of this team with and without Orpik
Didn't you hear? He's still improving. If Reirden says it, it must be true.

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04-10-2014, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
someone do a deep analytical breakdown of this team with and without Orpik
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...013-14&sit=5v5

Far right column.

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04-10-2014, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by 66 to 87 View Post
It's actually more stark if you look at their record before and after the Olympic break.

Before: 40-15-3
After: 11-9-2
This exactly. The Penguins were pretty hot going into the Olympic break, except losing the final game before in a SO to the Rangers. Coming out of the break the team looked rusty and flat. If I recall correctly, it took them a few games to record a W. I think they are playing better hockey right now than then, but recent performances and efforts are a bit concerning. I hope they take Saturday's game seriously against Philadelphia. It's Pittsburgh's last chance to play against a playoff caliber team before the postseason. Better make the most of it!

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04-10-2014, 07:38 PM
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Playing without Letang and Martin for an extended time has to be the biggest reason. Combine that with the other revolving injuries that thinned out the roster, and having the division locked up since December.... would have been more surprising if they continued playing great hockey through it all.

That said, they "seem" to be getting healthy at the right time, and Goc and Stempniak as well. Let's see if they do anything with it.

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04-10-2014, 08:43 PM
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Playing without Letang and Martin for an extended time has to be the biggest reason. Combine that with the other revolving injuries that thinned out the roster, and having the division locked up since December.... would have been more surprising if they continued playing great hockey through it all.

That said, they "seem" to be getting healthy at the right time, and Goc and Stempniak as well. Let's see if they do anything with it.
Yeah, but the same thing could be said about the last two years as well and look what happened...

Don't discount the importance of team mates and lines building and retaining chemistry and timing and things like that. Having guys sit for long periods of time, getting out of game shape and losing their timing and chemistry and then throwing them into the playoff fray isn't necessarily a good thing. I think you will notice Geno being a step or two off when he comes back as well as Goc. I also think that you will see Letang hit a wall soon. He was amped up and running on adrenaline in his first game back and I think he will begin to fatigue in the next two and into the playoffs.

It always seems like a "good" thing to have the "luxury" of resting players after securing a playoff spot but more often than not it will bite you in the *** at some point. Meanwhile, teams that have been fighting tooth and nail to get a playoff spot, and getting hot at the right time, enter the playoffs firing on all cylinders and carrying that momentum against a team full of players that have been resting for a week or two...

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04-11-2014, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WVP View Post
Playing without Letang and Martin for an extended time has to be the biggest reason. Combine that with the other revolving injuries that thinned out the roster, and having the division locked up since December.... would have been more surprising if they continued playing great hockey through it all.

That said, they "seem" to be getting healthy at the right time, and Goc and Stempniak as well. Let's see if they do anything with it.
Yeah this is the biggest reason. There's only so many injuries you can withstand before the ship starts sinking. Pens can lose Letang or Martin and look ok, but when they lose both their possession numbers go to hell and they look like garbage. Add in the loss of Malkin and it's easy to see what happened the last month and a half or so.

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04-11-2014, 09:43 AM
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It's not surprising really. And not necessarily of concern.

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04-11-2014, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by CrozJawz View Post
Yeah, but the same thing could be said about the last two years as well and look what happened...

Don't discount the importance of team mates and lines building and retaining chemistry and timing and things like that. Having guys sit for long periods of time, getting out of game shape and losing their timing and chemistry and then throwing them into the playoff fray isn't necessarily a good thing. I think you will notice Geno being a step or two off when he comes back as well as Goc. I also think that you will see Letang hit a wall soon. He was amped up and running on adrenaline in his first game back and I think he will begin to fatigue in the next two and into the playoffs.

It always seems like a "good" thing to have the "luxury" of resting players after securing a playoff spot but more often than not it will bite you in the *** at some point. Meanwhile, teams that have been fighting tooth and nail to get a playoff spot, and getting hot at the right time, enter the playoffs firing on all cylinders and carrying that momentum against a team full of players that have been resting for a week or two...
Hence the last line in my post, "Let's see if they do anything with it"

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04-11-2014, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billybudd View Post
Summary: Not a single top 6 forward has a higher GF% with Oprik than they do WITHOUT him on the ice

Here's what Orpik means to each player's GF% (those are actual minuses, not hyphens )

Crosby -20% (ie 64% without, 44% with)
Malkin -7%
Kunitz -7%
Neal - 6%
Dupper -10%
Jokinen -3%
Gibbons -22%
Sutter -25%


He does slightly help out Gladams though Dude is a bum

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04-11-2014, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
Just for curiosity's sake, I wondered how the Pens' first half of this season compares to the second half. The numbers aren't very flattering to the Pens.

Pen's record:
First 41 games: 29-11-1 = 59 pts (134 GF - 94 GA)
*Second 41 games: 22-13-4 = 48 pts (110 GF - 106 GA)

*Note: the second half is based on 39 games. The Pens have two remaining games, so at best you can add two more wins to those totals.

I think the record is a reflection of how this team seems to be getting more sloppy, not less sloppy, as the playoffs draw closer. Both their record and their GF/GA differential show a team that is trending in the opposite direction than what you'd hope heading into the playoffs.
This would've told you all you need to know. Performance always follows the shots on a large scale. This also shows how bad we really are. Bottom 1/4th of the league currently.


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04-11-2014, 01:25 PM
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Interesting bit on advanced statistics rankings for playoff teams on NHL.com

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=7...id=DL|NHL|home

Quote:
8. Pittsburgh Penguins (51-24-5) LW: 9

MVP: The guy with 103 points.

Surprise: Matt Niskanen and Olli Maatta have each been thrust into larger roles than expected because of injuries and have arguably been the most valuable players on the team that weren't the first player taken in an NHL Draft.

Disappointment: Sure, the vast amount of injuries has been crippling at times, but the biggest disappointment can be summed up like this: This team performs like a Cup contender during shifts that involve Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, and looks like a non-playoff team during shifts that don't.


I was surprised to see Philly so low...

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04-11-2014, 01:29 PM
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billybudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
Summary: Not a single top 6 forward has a higher GF% with Oprik than they do WITHOUT him on the ice

Here's what Orpik means to each player's GF% (those are actual minuses, not hyphens )

Crosby -20% (ie 64% without, 44% with)
Malkin -7%
Kunitz -7%
Neal - 6%
Dupper -10%
Jokinen -3%
Gibbons -22%
Sutter -25%


He does slightly help out Gladams though Dude is a bum
What floored me about these numbers are that Martin's numbers get noticeably worse without Orpik, considering, visually, it looks like Martin's carrying him when they're on the ice together.

Then I looked down and realized that's almost solely due to his minutes with Deryk Engelland throwing everything else out of whack.

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04-11-2014, 04:03 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
someone do a deep analytical breakdown of this team with and without Orpik
With Orpik: 42-24-5 42/71 - 89 points out of 142 points - 62%
Without Orpik: 8-1-0 - 8/9 - 16 points out of 18 points - 88%

Some simple stats;

Scuderi with Orpik - CF% 29.3 - CA 27.27
Orpik when apart - CF% 47.9 - CA 17.70
Scuderi when apart - CF% 45.3 - CA 19.90

Engelland with Orpik - CF% 41.2 - CA 20.90
Orpik when apart - CF% 46.0% - CA 18.81
Engelland when apart - CF% 47.7 - CA 17.80

CA is chances against. CF% is Corsi for %.

Basically. Orpik and Scuderi are terrible together.
Orpik and Engelland are terrible together.

Must be Orpik?

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