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Don't look now, my current projections showing the Rangers IN THE PLAYOFFS...

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:30 PM
  #1
Inferno
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Don't look now, my current projections showing the Rangers IN THE PLAYOFFS...

Color me stunned, but according to tonights projections, the Rangers are in by the smallest of margins.

in order to secure a spot based on the current projections (its a 3-way tie i estimated 1 extra point in to "secure" the spot) the Rangers need to finish the season w/ one of the following records:

9-7-0
8-6-2
7-5-4
6-4-6
5-3-8
4-2-10
3-1-12
2-0-14

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:33 PM
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jas
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I will be amazed if this team finds a way into the playoffs...brutal losses to Philly and Columbus on home ice, the gut-punch of the home-and-home with the Debbies, losing Shanny, Straka, Tyutin and now Hossa...just unbelievable that they're still hanging around...the Eastern Conference sucks.

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:34 PM
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Lets shoot for 2-0-14!!!

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:35 PM
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Inferno
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
I will be amazed if this team finds a way into the playoffs...brutal losses to Philly and Columbus on home ice, the gut-punch of the home-and-home with the Debbies, losing Shanny, Straka, Tyutin and now Hossa...just unbelievable that they're still hanging around...the Eastern Conference sucks.
i think that sums up why they are still in it pretty well. the teams around them keep losing.

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:37 PM
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NYR94
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I read the explanation of your method and I understand how you came up with the projected points needed, but something tells me that it's probably going to take more than 88 or 89 points to clinch the final playoff spot. I think it will be more like 92-94 points, somewhere around there.

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03-05-2007, 10:39 PM
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Inferno
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Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
I read the explanation of your method and I understand how you came up with the projected points needed, but something tells me that it's probably going to take more than 88 or 89 points to clinch the final playoff spot. I think it will be more like 92-94 points, somewhere around there.
well, i adjust it after every rangers game. the closer to the end of the season we get, the more accurate it gets.

next year im going to automate it. this year, im doing it by hand.

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
I read the explanation of your method and I understand how you came up with the projected points needed, but something tells me that it's probably going to take more than 88 or 89 points to clinch the final playoff spot. I think it will be more like 92-94 points, somewhere around there.
The bottom line is, one or two of these teams that have been sucking for a while now, will eventually get hot.

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:40 PM
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Inferno
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Originally Posted by Balej20 View Post
The bottom line is, one or two of these teams that have been sucking for a while now, will eventually get hot.
lets hope its the rangers

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Old
03-05-2007, 10:40 PM
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NYR94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inferno272 View Post
well, i adjust it after every rangers game. the closer to the end of the season we get, the more accurate it gets.

next year im going to automate it. this year, im doing it by hand.
Good point, my bad. The excitement of tonight's game has left me stupid.

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Old
03-05-2007, 11:01 PM
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Ha, and to think a week ago i was saying trade nylander and jagr and see what happens when we bring up a few young guys. Kinda feel dumb now. Let's hope we can keep this strong play going.

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Old
03-05-2007, 11:53 PM
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I think we'll need more than 18 points to get in. I say we need need between 21-24...but we're gonna make it no matter what.

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Old
03-06-2007, 12:30 AM
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Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by HVPOLARBEARS19 View Post
I think we'll need more than 18 points to get in. I say we need need between 21-24...but we're gonna make it no matter what.
Agree... wouldn't count on getting in with 89 points, but it's possible. I think it will come down to Rangers, Carolina, and Boston. Carolina has experience from last year's playoffs and pride of defending the Cup, and Boston has been on a roll.

Any team with over ~92+ points will have an excellent chance, because Isles/TB/Atl would each finish with 92-93 points by playing .500 hockey (and any one of those teams could go into a slump at the end of the season).

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03-06-2007, 05:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Balej20 View Post
Lets shoot for 2-0-14!!!

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Old
03-06-2007, 05:15 AM
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With Hossa down and Straka with a bum shoulder, its amazing if this team can make it. Its one thing to put forth a tremendous effort, its another to be able to do it for 15-20 straight games.

Look at game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals, last night we worked harder then both Carolina and Edmonton in that game...

If we can't find a way to win games a bit more comfortable then last night we will run out of gas sooner or later. And I personally have a hard time seeing us win game comfortable without Shanahan, Hossa, Tyutin and a 100% Straka...

But things are looking better now then I expected them to do about a week ago thats for sure.

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03-06-2007, 06:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ola View Post
With Hossa down and Straka with a bum shoulder, its amazing if this team can make it. Its one thing to put forth a tremendous effort, its another to be able to do it for 15-20 straight games.

Look at game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals, last night we worked harder then both Carolina and Edmonton in that game...

If we can't find a way to win games a bit more comfortable then last night we will run out of gas sooner or later. And I personally have a hard time seeing us win game comfortable without Shanahan, Hossa, Tyutin and a 100% Straka...

But things are looking better now then I expected them to do about a week ago thats for sure.
I don't think they'll be winning comfortably, they just don't have the offensive firepower, even before the recent injuries.

However, of the teams competing for the final spot, I think the Rangers have the best goalie and Jagr's playing as well as he has all year (and probably as well as he can play until next season). They also have the only positive GF-GA difference of the bubble teams.

They are 9-6-3 since the break and have only lost one game by more than one goal during that span (the debacle against Flyers), while winning 5 games by at least 3 goals. Of the last 5 games before the break, 3 were losses by more than one goal.

They also have impressively won their recent games against teams near their level in the standings (5-0 vs. TB- who was near them at time, 4-1 vs. Car, 4-0 vs. Mon), we'll see if that continues this weekend against Carolina.

The main concern, besides a hot streak by one of the numerous competing teams, is whether Lundqvist runs out of gas. They still play back-to-back games 4 times before the end of the season, so they may need some more strong games from their backup. Otherwise, even if they do make the playoffs, Lundqvist will be on empty.

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Old
03-06-2007, 07:01 AM
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I've been watching Rodent's realStandings, and the cut off point has consistently been 88 points on the linear projection over the last week. That being said, its a 3 way tie between Carolina, NYR and Toronto, so Its going to be at LEAST 89 points needed, and more likely 90 or 91. However, theres also a possibility that one team goes on a 9-10 game win streak, which would bring up the number to 93 or 94.

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Old
03-06-2007, 07:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balej20 View Post
Lets shoot for 2-0-14!!!
wow 14 shoot out losses.. I don't think I could deal with that.

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Old
03-06-2007, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by bcrt2000 View Post
I've been watching Rodent's realStandings, and the cut off point has consistently been 88 points on the linear projection over the last week. That being said, its a 3 way tie between Carolina, NYR and Toronto, so Its going to be at LEAST 89 points needed, and more likely 90 or 91. However, theres also a possibility that one team goes on a 9-10 game win streak, which would bring up the number to 93 or 94.
I think 90 points would give them a good chance, 92 a very good chance, and 94+ should be a virtual lock. Just as it's likely that one of Carolina/Toronto/Boston goes on a winning streak and hits at least 90 points, it's likely that one of Atlanta/Isles/TB goes on a losing streak and finishes with under 95 points.

I don't see Montreal making it without Huet. Florida is just too far back and has 3 games left with Carolina, who beats them like a drum.

So that leaves Rangers, Carolina, Toronto and Boston. The Rangers will have their chances, as they play all of these teams at least once (Boston & Montreal twice), plus the Islanders 3 more times. They have dominated Boston the past two years, but have fairly even against the others.

Carolina has the experience and pride to pull it off. The Rangers have to beat them this weekend, they can't leave it up to teams like Florida to beat Carolina down the stretch. Regulation wins against Islanders and Carolina would be huge!

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03-06-2007, 08:31 AM
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The biggest thing in the Rangers favor, and they showed it last night during the game, is that they have 9 remaining games against teams around them fighting for a spot while all the others have like 4-6.

The Rangers have the schedule they need to reach the playoffs. If they can get 2 points on Thursday, theyll have their destiny in their hands.

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Old
03-06-2007, 08:40 AM
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Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs! You kiddin' me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!


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03-06-2007, 08:52 AM
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Evgeny Oliker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ola View Post
With Hossa down and Straka with a bum shoulder, its amazing if this team can make it. Its one thing to put forth a tremendous effort, its another to be able to do it for 15-20 straight games.

Look at game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals, last night we worked harder then both Carolina and Edmonton in that game...

If we can't find a way to win games a bit more comfortable then last night we will run out of gas sooner or later. And I personally have a hard time seeing us win game comfortable without Shanahan, Hossa, Tyutin and a 100% Straka...

But things are looking better now then I expected them to do about a week ago thats for sure.

Who said we are supposed to win games comfortably?

Who said other teams dont have injuries (Carolina-Cole,etc, Montreal-Huet)?

Who said the Rangers can't win with injuries? We have won 3 of the last 4 games(the loss being in shootout) WITH injuries.

The bottom line:
This team is playing well and has enough depth to win with the injuries. Please give them credit for that and stop making injuries the biggest issue. The biggest issue is how we play, and right now we are playing VERY WELL.

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03-06-2007, 08:56 AM
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If the Rangers didnt blow all those leads then last nights game wouldve been a battle for 7th place or even higher.

Think about it, the Florida and then Tampa game, the Detroit game, and lets say two easy wins over Columbus and Philly, and this team would have 81 points sitting tied for 4th place.

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03-06-2007, 08:59 AM
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the team is finally starting to show signs of how they played last year and you say that they're done now? Yes Tyutin is a loss, but they played very solid Defense yesterday without him. Hossa is also important, but hopefully others step up. Maybe someone comes up from Hartford and gets hot, who knows.

Shanny had cooled down since December. Sure his leadership is important, but at this point, he isn't as important of a piece to the puzzle as you'd think.

Don't write this team off yet.

oh, AND the Rangers are finally above .500 at home too .

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Old
03-06-2007, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g52 View Post
If the Rangers didnt blow all those leads then last nights game wouldve been a battle for 7th place or even higher.

Think about it, the Florida and then Tampa game, the Detroit game, and lets say two easy wins over Columbus and Philly, and this team would have 81 points sitting tied for 4th place.
Well based on those games we know that the Rangers can play better too. As long as they start playing a full 60 minutes and not just 40 minutes, they can get on a roll. We also know from the St. Louis game that they can win by only playing the last 20 minutes as well.

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Old
03-06-2007, 09:18 AM
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Evgeny Oliker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g52 View Post
If the Rangers didnt blow all those leads then last nights game wouldve been a battle for 7th place or even higher.

Think about it, the Florida and then Tampa game, the Detroit game, and lets say two easy wins over Columbus and Philly, and this team would have 81 points sitting tied for 4th place.
Every team in the NHL has lost some bad games this season so I just dont get this point. We can always go and say "if we did this and that". So can every other team in the NHL.

What counts is really how we play now down the stretch and if we make the playoffs...how we make it doesnt matter. So if we lose to Philly again and then still make the playoffs, I'll be ok with that

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