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04-24-2014, 09:02 PM
  #201
jwhouk
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Something bothered me enough that I decided to do some research. I recently (re)purchased Strat Hockey for Windows, along with a copy of the 2011-12 NHL season. (The abbreviated 2013 season came with the game.)

I did some playing around with the rosters, under the assumption that the loss of Suter was the main reason why the Preds declined so much in 2013. After playing three "baseline" seasons - no changes, just the rosters as presented in SOMH - I played three scenarios to see what would happen in terms of the Preds' performance:

1. Suter stays, Weber goes off to Philly.
2. Both leave (and the del Zotto trade happens a year earlier).
3. Both stay.

Now, for one, each of the three simulations had a quirk in that one of the three seasons was better than the actual Preds did (in all but the Both Leave scenario, the SOM Preds won 20 over 48 games at least once). I suspect that this may have been cases where the shootout went the Preds' way more often than it actually did in '13.

What the eye-opener was in all this was this: in all four simulation groups, the team performed worse than as-is if Suter stayed. That's in both the Weber leaves and Both Stay scenarios.

So I suspect it was something else besides just Suter that caused us to go into a tailspin. Thus begun phase two of the research project: comparing the 2012 Preds to the 2013 squad on a more direct basis.

Perusing hockey-reference.com, the Preds had 22 players who played in both seasons, 15 that played in 2012 only (including, of course, Suter) and 12 in 2013 only. Using their Points Shares method of measuring player performance, the 22 returnees had a combined 82.6 point share in 2012, and a 36.5 PS in 2013 - which translates to 62.4 over an 82-game season. That translates to a 20.2 point difference between two seasons.

Suter's Point Share for 2012 was 9.2, so you would think that his was a major reason for the drop in the standings. However, just taking away Suter's 9.2 from the team total in 2012 puts them 23.1 points ahead of the 2013 squad's (adjusted) totals.

When I did a line-up of our carry-over players, the two most obvious reasons for our demise in 2013 came rising to the top: Martin Erat's huge drop-off in 2013 and Pekka's injury cost us a total of 8.8 point shares between the two. Sergei "I Give Up" Kostitsyn cost us 4 more points. Hornqvist and his injury issues cost us another 4 points - and there's 16.8 points that went down the drain over two years.

That wasn't it, though. Four players failed to help take up the slack between the four listed above and Suter's loss: Bobby Butler, Rich "I am not Tootoo" Clune, Taylor Beck, and Chris Mason. Mason was a 1.4 point difference over Lindback; Clune was 0.6 points worse than Tootoo; a full season of Bobby Butler was a tenth of a point worse than a partial season of Andrei Kostitsyn; and Beck wasn't even close to taking over Radulov's role.

I contend that Suter's absence from the lineup wouldn't have meant much if the big four hadn't decided to take huge drops in performance over the shortened season - and the four "replacements" had proven to be at least adequate compared to the skates they were filling.

I may, if I get some time and energy, do a simulation of 2013 based on the four key players' 2012 stats, to try to confirm my suspicions that it wasn't (just) Suter.

Anyways: TL,DR version - Suter wasn't why we sucked in 2013. That was more on Rinne and Horny being injured, and Erat and SK74 not caring.

UPDATE: I played three additional simulated seasons using Erat, Rinne, Kostitsyn and Hornqvist's 2012 stats. Guess what - all three seasons the Preds made the playoffs.


Last edited by jwhouk: 04-24-2014 at 10:57 PM. Reason: Updated (3 additional season replays)
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Old
04-29-2014, 05:26 PM
  #202
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With Tootoo being bought out can we dump Clune and pick up Toots?

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04-29-2014, 06:24 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
With Tootoo being bought out can we dump Clune and pick up Toots?
That ship has sailed, I don't want those whistles being brought back

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04-29-2014, 06:25 PM
  #204
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That ship has sailed, I don't want those whistles being brought back
At worst we get 15 more points a year of production from that move plus a guy that actually wins fights.

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04-29-2014, 07:45 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
At worst we get 15 more points a year of production from that move plus a guy that actually wins fights.
Actually, at worst we get a guy we need to put on waivers and send to Milwaukee after signing him to way too much salary ... similar to what Detroit had with him.

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04-29-2014, 08:25 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
With Tootoo being bought out can we dump Clune and pick up Toots?
I'd rather have Toots over Clune, no question.

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04-29-2014, 10:39 PM
  #207
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Toots would generate some PR buzz but wouldn't add much to the team itself.

Sadly he never got over that hump and became a modest threat to score/contribute offensively, and other teams weren't scared of him, and didn't alter their games because of him. And he was a marked man in the eyes of the officials and so his ability to draw power plays had become limited by the time he left here.

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04-29-2014, 11:45 PM
  #208
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In truth, PR buzz probably is enough justification for a team like ours. Assuming he has no substance abuse issues and would sign under 1M, I think it also could be a good hockey move. He injects some pace and energy in addition to physicality.

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Old
04-30-2014, 09:04 AM
  #209
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I highly doubt he has substance abuse issues.

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04-30-2014, 12:31 PM
  #210
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I'd rather have neither

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Old
04-30-2014, 05:17 PM
  #211
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Did people suddenly forget how useless Tootoo was when he was here last? I understand some people dislike clune but Tootoo was much worse. If we're going to be stuck with a goon I'd take Clune over Tootoo, though it'd be nice to have McGratten back instead of both.


Last edited by GeauxPreds: 04-30-2014 at 05:24 PM.
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Old
04-30-2014, 08:15 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by GeauxPreds View Post
Did people suddenly forget how useless Tootoo was when he was here last? I understand some people dislike clune but Tootoo was much worse. If we're going to be stuck with a goon I'd take Clune over Tootoo, though it'd be nice to have McGratten back instead of both.
So Clune's 7 points in 58 games were better than Tootoo's last season here of 30 points in 77 games? That's .12 points per game versus .39 points per game. He also played 77 games which means he was valuable enough to play almost the entire season whereas Clune was a healthy scratch for almost a third of the season. Tootoo also had the ability to win the majority of his fights and stick up for his teammates. Teams knew if they messed with us, Tootoo was coming on the ice to either check someone hard or fight someone and more often than not he achieved what he was sent out there to do. Since his departure, teams have taken more liberties with us than in most years and we have no one to stick up for our star players. You think Downey takes a run at Josi like he did early in the season if he knows Tootoo is on the bench ready to take him on or run one of their stars? You think teams play as chippy as they did if Tootoo is on the bench? Sorry but I have no idea how you could say Tootoo was much worse than Clune when stats say otherwise. While Clune is a funny guy, he's barely an NHL player and knowing what he's gone through, I'm proud of the guy but he honestly has no business being in the NHL.

For what it's worth, a few guys that didn't even put up 30 points this year were named Bourque, Nystrom, Gaustad and Stalberg. While I didn't think Tootoo was worth what Detroit gave him, he outperformed all of those guys numbers wise for less salary than all of them except Bourque. So that's 5 guys who Tootoo had better numbers than his last season here but he was worthless. For a team starved in point production, maybe his numbers wouldn't have been so bad this year considering how close we were to the playoffs. How sad is that?


Last edited by glenngineer: 04-30-2014 at 08:18 PM. Reason: Saw something I wanted to add
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Old
04-30-2014, 08:48 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
So Clune's 7 points in 58 games were better than Tootoo's last season here of 30 points in 77 games? That's .12 points per game versus .39 points per game. He also played 77 games which means he was valuable enough to play almost the entire season whereas Clune was a healthy scratch for almost a third of the season. Tootoo also had the ability to win the majority of his fights and stick up for his teammates. Teams knew if they messed with us, Tootoo was coming on the ice to either check someone hard or fight someone and more often than not he achieved what he was sent out there to do. Since his departure, teams have taken more liberties with us than in most years and we have no one to stick up for our star players. You think Downey takes a run at Josi like he did early in the season if he knows Tootoo is on the bench ready to take him on or run one of their stars? You think teams play as chippy as they did if Tootoo is on the bench? Sorry but I have no idea how you could say Tootoo was much worse than Clune when stats say otherwise. While Clune is a funny guy, he's barely an NHL player and knowing what he's gone through, I'm proud of the guy but he honestly has no business being in the NHL.

For what it's worth, a few guys that didn't even put up 30 points this year were named Bourque, Nystrom, Gaustad and Stalberg. While I didn't think Tootoo was worth what Detroit gave him, he outperformed all of those guys numbers wise for less salary than all of them except Bourque. So that's 5 guys who Tootoo had better numbers than his last season here but he was worthless. For a team starved in point production, maybe his numbers wouldn't have been so bad this year considering how close we were to the playoffs. How sad is that?
I noticed you used Tootoo's anomalous statistical season. Why not use his 8 pts in 42 games with the Wings last season or 1 pt in 11 games during 2013-14? Why not use any of his sub 20 point seasons as a Pred (every season besides the one you cited)? If Downey makes a run or not is a matter of pure speculation.

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05-01-2014, 01:11 AM
  #214
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Sources are telling me that Tortorella will be the next head coach of the predators.

KIDDING! But now that I've got your attention and you can't turn away like you normally would, what's a realistic offer from San Jose for Shea Weber?

Brent Burns+Joe Pavelski+2014 or 2015 1st...what would Poile say to that?

We do know that Doug Wilson tried to acquire Shea Weber back during the Philly situation, but now, the Sharks need defense more than ever. Is this a realistic offer? I know it would take a lot to get Weber out of Nashville, but this is the type of offer I could see doing it if Weber is traded.

Thoughts?

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05-01-2014, 02:46 AM
  #215
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Originally Posted by MarleauApologist View Post
Sources are telling me that Tortorella will be the next head coach of the predators.

KIDDING! But now that I've got your attention and you can't turn away like you normally would, what's a realistic offer from San Jose for Shea Weber?

Brent Burns+Joe Pavelski+2014 or 2015 1st...what would Poile say to that?

We do know that Doug Wilson tried to acquire Shea Weber back during the Philly situation, but now, the Sharks need defense more than ever. Is this a realistic offer? I know it would take a lot to get Weber out of Nashville, but this is the type of offer I could see doing it if Weber is traded.

Thoughts?
I mean it's not a bad offer. But we would want Couture for starters

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05-01-2014, 03:49 AM
  #216
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Couture has an NTC, which is the issue there.

I feel like Pavelski and Burns would be 2 offensive players to really get Nashville going in the right direction.

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05-01-2014, 06:03 AM
  #217
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
I noticed you used Tootoo's anomalous statistical season. Why not use his 8 pts in 42 games with the Wings last season or 1 pt in 11 games during 2013-14? Why not use any of his sub 20 point seasons as a Pred (every season besides the one you cited)? If Downey makes a run or not is a matter of pure speculation.
I was quoting what GeauxPreds said about Tootoo last being here so I used his last season. That's what I took from their statement, that's why I used his last season. Last here could mean a lot of things but if you're going to go by that statement, I took it as last season here.

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05-01-2014, 06:23 AM
  #218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarleauApologist View Post
Sources are telling me that Tortorella will be the next head coach of the predators.

KIDDING! But now that I've got your attention and you can't turn away like you normally would, what's a realistic offer from San Jose for Shea Weber?

Brent Burns+Joe Pavelski+2014 or 2015 1st...what would Poile say to that?

We do know that Doug Wilson tried to acquire Shea Weber back during the Philly situation, but now, the Sharks need defense more than ever. Is this a realistic offer? I know it would take a lot to get Weber out of Nashville, but this is the type of offer I could see doing it if Weber is traded.

Thoughts?
I just don't see Poile trading Weber. The owners have paid him too much money already, and we are not in "blow it up" mode.

IMO, he Preds will be looking to add scoring via free agency or by trading picks/prospects to rebuilding teams, not via the "blockbuster" trade..

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05-01-2014, 07:53 AM
  #219
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I would see if Tootoo wants to sign a tryout contract and earn his way here. I would think the last two years have humbled him, and if he wants a spot, he works his tail off and takes it. That goes for him not only with this team, but any other he considers

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05-01-2014, 09:20 AM
  #220
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We've evolved past having someone like Tootoo on our roster. We really do not need Clune at all either. We'd be better off by bringing up Salomaki.

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05-01-2014, 10:56 AM
  #221
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Originally Posted by MarleauApologist View Post
Couture has an NTC, which is the issue there.

I feel like Pavelski and Burns would be 2 offensive players to really get Nashville going in the right direction.
Problem is that if we trade Weber (doubtful), it's a sign we're not really looking to be competitive in the immediate future. Whether people want to believe that or not, it's likely the reality. If that's the case, two forwards pushing 30 are absolutely the wrong type of return.

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05-01-2014, 11:03 AM
  #222
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We have one big bodied defenseman that can handle both the physical play and still move well enough to play against top lines. We'd be stupid to trade him.

Despite what some here think, it's extremely hard to find 6'4" guys that can play physical, skate well and log big minutes. We have one, we've only had one the entire time we've been in the NHL. We can't afford to trade Weber until we have another defenseman in that mold, currently, we're not close. I love Josi but he's not that guy, Ekholm might have the frame for it one day not sure if he has the mental make-up. Diaby might but he's a few years away.

Trading Weber now sets us back.

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05-01-2014, 11:15 AM
  #223
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
We have one big bodied defenseman that can handle both the physical play and still move well enough to play against top lines. We'd be stupid to trade him.

Despite what some here think, it's extremely hard to find 6'4" guys that can play physical, skate well and log big minutes. We have one, we've only had one the entire time we've been in the NHL. We can't afford to trade Weber until we have another defenseman in that mold, currently, we're not close. I love Josi but he's not that guy, Ekholm might have the frame for it one day not sure if he has the mental make-up. Diaby might but he's a few years away.

Trading Weber now sets us back.
Yeah, agreed. I trend toward the "trading any of the 3 of them sets us back" faction though.

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05-01-2014, 12:04 PM
  #224
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I would see if Tootoo wants to sign a tryout contract and earn his way here. I would think the last two years have humbled him, and if he wants a spot, he works his tail off and takes it. That goes for him not only with this team, but any other he considers
He doesn't fill a role here anymore. Move forward, not backwards.

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05-01-2014, 12:07 PM
  #225
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He doesn't fill a role here anymore. Move forward, not backwards.
Couldn't agree more. As stated, I'd also rather try Salomaki or Watson.

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